Jason Collette – Baseball Chat Transcript

Comment From Shawn Kelley
Am I worth hanging on to after David Robertson returns?

	Jason Collette: In AL leagues, yes, you still have value

Comment From Autodraft Problems
My autodraft left me with Andrus, Segura and A. Ramirez. Any advice on moving a surplus at one position?

	Jason Collette: Play one at utility unless you have a dire need elsewhere.

Comment From randplaty
Are getting swinging strikes more important than getting called strikes? Should we worry about Andrew Cashner, who has an extremely low swinging strike rate this season?

	Jason Collette: Just get strikes. If the stuff is moving so much it is fooling batters and locking them up so be it. Zero concern with Cashner on my end.

Comment From Alam
What are your thoughts on Matt Cain?

	Jason Collette: More hittable right now and all of those flyballs that never left the yard in previous years are catching up with him now.

Comment From Guest
Arenado for Homer. What side do you like OBP, and Whip leauge

	Jason Collette: Bailey’s worst baseball is behind him. I’d be trying to buy him up everywhere I could right now.

Comment From Tony the Tiger
Hi Jason. Thanks for doing the chat today! I have to replace Calhoun for the next six weeks, and the only half decent options available are J.B. Shuck and Daniel Nava. Who would you target of the two?

	Jason Collette: I’ll go with Nava – more upside in the bat.

Comment From Dr. Met
So…. SSS and #APRIL but Jhey, Myers are leading the league in awfulness… wth?

	Jason Collette: Myers looks so bad at the plate right now. He did sting the ball hard twice last night, but right to Jeter & Ichiro. Better days are ahead for both.

Comment From BJ
Will Shelby miller be ok after all?

	Jason Collette: He looked terrific in the outing vs Milwaukee the other day. Milwaukee is a very aggressive team and he used that against them, while also hitting 96 on the gun a few times.

Comment From Pietraynee
Do you see Edinson Volquez sustaining anywhere near the success he’s exhibited so far?

	Jason Collette: Look at the HUGE increase in the percentage of pitches in the strike zone so far in 2014. As long as he continues to throw strikes early and stay ahead of batters, this can work.

Comment From quinceleather
do u think dickey is broken? or is it just the roller coaster of the knuckleballer

	Jason Collette: I don’t – it was 30 degrees last night so I’m guessing that was a factor in things for him. I’m trying to buy Dickey in a few places myself.

Comment From Ellis Burks
12 team 5×5 H2H dynasty league. Which side would of this trade would you rather have– Matt Kemp and Yordano Ventura for Troy Tulowitzki? Is it close?

	Jason Collette: equal health risks with the Ventura bonus works for me.

Comment From Guest
I traded away Valverde and Neil Walker, both FA pickups for Billy Butler? How’d I do?

	Jason Collette: Nice buy low. Eventually, some day, Butler will stop beating so many balls into the ground.

Comment From DCC
Who breaks out of their slump first, Sandoval or Butler?

	Jason Collette: Sandoval

Comment From PK
Who would you rather have? Skaggs or Lohse? Seems like Skaggs doesn’t have much strikeout upside. I’m disappointed in his ability to put away batters.

	Jason Collette: It’s not a matter of stuff as much as it is sequencing right now for Skaggs. Lohse is safer bet.

Comment From Jon
How actively should I be shopping Braun? What sort of return should I be looking for? (11-team roto)

	Jason Collette: The thumb issue won’t go away, so it all depends on your comfort level. At best you’re going to get 90 cents on the dollar with him right now.

Comment From OSK
Thoughts on Salazar?

	Jason Collette: Same concerns I had all off-season with him — too much helium for a work in progress. He doesn’t trust his secondary pitches enough when he is behind in the count and has thrown just six non-fastballs in any hitters count this season. That’s not a recipe for success.

Comment From quinceleather
how likely is it to be in the bottom of a league at this point and still end up in the $. My players are way underperforming their projections–guys like pence, Rizzo, kipnis, cruz, Sandoval, craig….I used steamer…

	Jason Collette: there are 24 more scoring periods to go. I’ve seen teams crawl out of the basement after 8 weeks to win leagues.

Comment From PJB
Brewers took w-c Wang in rule 5 Draft (out of single A!) then pitched him against them last night and he’s torched for 6 runs. Ever seen anything similar?

	Jason Collette: Something close here — http://www.baseball-referen…

Comment From John Stamos
How do you get over the fear of making a bad trade? I feel like all my offers start out as low-ballers and that I end up waiting for them to counter which, when the offer is too low, they will just ignore. Any advice?

	Jason Collette: You have to put something out there that passes the sniff test and meets needs for both teams. Try emailing the guy to chat about needs before building an offer rather than just using the site tool to throw stuff to see what sticks.

Comment From Ceej
Think either Gomes or Mesoraco will be as good as Santana this year?

	Jason Collette: I don’t, but I like both a lot this season.

Comment From Brian
What’s the ultimate upside on Yordano Ventura and does he reach it?

	Jason Collette: low 2/high 3? I’d like to see his delivery cleaned up in order to reach it. Not crazy about the finish on his delivery right now.

Comment From guest
will edwin encarnacion get it going? (or should we start worrying more about that wrist)

	Jason Collette: The wrist wasn’t an issue in Spring Training so I’m not sure why it would be now.

Comment From Johnny Rockets
Looking at Brian Dozier’s profile, what is telling me I should or should not believe in his early season success? To start, he’s walking a ton and hitting darn every fly ball out of the park.

	Jason Collette: He was undervalued in draft season. Batting average is a risk, but he has very good pop.

Comment From SK
What are your thoughts on Nate Eovaldi?

	Jason Collette: Love him, but still needs an offspeed pitch to take the next step

Comment From Steve
who’s the better stash? Gausman, Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley?

	Jason Collette: on talent: Bradley, Gausman, Bauer. On opportunity, I’m going with Bauer.

Comment From Jason
Who do you prefer lng term, Wacha or Bradley??

	Jason Collette: Wacha

Comment From Allen
High on Drew Smyly?

	Jason Collette: He’s finally starting today! I think this early schedule craziness helps limit his innings, because I worry about him being effective over 170 IP this season.

Comment From Yordano Ventura
How do you like me now?

	Jason Collette: Now that you are on your way?

Comment From 3 buy-low pitchers?
Hi Jason…wanted your opinion on 3 buy low pitchers that people aren’t taking as much about. (i.e. Homer Bailey)

	Jason Collette: such as? I’ll give you one that I said on yesterday’s podcast – Sabathia.

Comment From Guest
trade cashner and hosmer for sale?

	Jason Collette: I would not.

Comment From DC
Any chance Alexei Ramirez is capable of having a career year, somewhere in the neighborhood of .290/.330 and 15/30?

	Jason Collette: He looks improved at the plate so far & is really helping my AL Tout Wars team. I’m a believer.

Comment From Earl
What’s the deal with Madison Bumgarner?

	Jason Collette: a .452 BABIP is a hell of a way to go through a season. Walks are a little high, but rest of the foundation looks fine.

Comment From Perry
Done with RA Dickey?

	Jason Collette: Quite the opposite – I’m looking to buy at a very nice discount now.

Comment From Guest
What qualifies as a deep league?

	Jason Collette: 12 team AL or NL league, 18 tea Mixed league

Comment From Orlando
Why isn’t Mike Trout stealing?

	Jason Collette: It is strange – he has had the opportunities but he simply isn’t running. 4 1st inning home runs is a bit of a factor.

Comment From Awake in Seattle
Do you see Abraham Almonte holding down the starting OF job in Seattle all season?

	Jason Collette: I do, because he’s the “best” CF option they have at the moment.

Comment From Caesar Tovar
RPs are killing me. If you HAD to roster four of these guys, who would you choose: Valverde, Santos, Gregerson, Rondon, Brothers, Broxton. Need saves but also want to avoid awful ratios.

	Jason Collette: Santos, Gregerson, Rondon, Broxton

Comment From That Guy
I just traded Andrew Cashner for Wil Myers in a keeper league am I an idiot? What do we expect out of Wil ROS?

	Jason Collette: Nice buy low.

Comment From John
What size league is Volquez a must-own? 16 mixed only?

	Jason Collette: I’d take him in a 15 teamer right now where I had a few high K% guys

Comment From Art
Will Adrian Beltre be fine when he’s back or should I sell?

	Jason Collette: Beltre is always fine, and always a risk for injury. Even when he plays 130, he is very productive.

Comment From Kris
Sell high on Rendon since I have Brad Miller on my bench, or you believe in the Rendon breakout?

	Jason Collette: Very much a believer in Rendon. How much so? Own 7 shares of him in the 8 leagues I could draft him in.

Comment From Evan
Pick a side: Butler/Headley/Crain vs. Archer/Santos/BJ Upton

	Jason Collette: Side B….even with Upton in it

Comment From Mike Nipply
Brad Miller is not hitting so well. what’s the chance he loses his job to Franklin?

	Jason Collette: Miller is still the better defensive player. That saves him, for now.

Comment From clay bucholz
am i the real deal even though i lost my fastball?

	Jason Collette: I am still very much in your corner.

Comment From Mike Nipply
Who takes over a closer role first, Brothers, Benoit, or Farnsworth?

	Jason Collette: Benoit. Brothers can’t locate and Farnsworth doesn’t have the stuff to do the role any longer.

Comment From Jerry
Homer Bailey and Danny Salazar for R.A Dickey and Shelby Miller which side do you like?

	Jason Collette: Side B

Comment From tb
would you trade shelby miller for justin masterson?

	Jason Collette: I would not…Miller’s last outing was an eye-opener.

Comment From Opportunist
Do you see Ian Desmond as a good “buy low” guy right now?

	Jason Collette: I see anyone off to a slow-start in April as a good buy-low unless they are hurt. Encarnacion, Desmond, any of them.

Comment From Bill
Someone gave me Puig and Shields for Yu. I won big right?

	Jason Collette: You did well

Comment From Mike
have the teams to stream against identified themselves yet?

	Jason Collette: Houston, Chicago, and any lefty that faces the Rays are the ones that stand out to me so far. If you’re in a daily and aren’t running Alfredo Simon out there today, you’re missing out.

Comment From El Ashaban
What is Dee Gordon doing differently? Any chance he can continue to get on base at a playable clip?

	Jason Collette: not expanding his strike zone and thus making better contact.

Comment From quinceleather
someone just dropped desmond Jennings,,would u swap Soriano for him? same league fowler got dumped…so is either better than Soriano?

	Jason Collette: Jennings is, yes.

Comment From Jake
The Rays are 10 games+ back in the WC by July. Do they finally move price? What do they get?

	Jason Collette: I don’t see them 10 games back in July, but if they traded Kazmir just 4 games back in 2009, anything is possible. The offensive slumber can’t last much longer.

Comment From O Reilly
Whats the most lopsided fantasy trade you’ve ever been a part of? one that looked fair going in and then swung way in favor of one side?

	Jason Collette: It was a fantasy football trade of all things. Someone traded for Randall Cunningham when he was the backup & gave up a starting WR. League screamed bloody murder, but trade stood and Cunningham blew up that season & the WR was cut 4 weeks later once he got hurt.

Comment From brian
Someone gave me a Jason Collett chat for free. #humblebrag

	Jason Collette: the Canadian musician? Sweet score!

Comment From Kris
Minnesota isn’t a team to stream against?

	Jason Collette: They didn’t look like one against Toronto yesterday.

Comment From Blue Jays
How soon do you see Polanco in Pitt?

	Jason Collette: Mid June unless something changes

Comment From Larry
Is K.Zimmer worth holding on to, will I regret dropping him for J.Dyson to get a few steals over the next few weeks?

	Jason Collette: Are you playing for now or later? I find the teams that play for later continue to miss out ways to make their teams better now. I always play on a year to year basis in keeper leagues until I determine my team can’t contend for a $$ spot. Only then do I worry about the future.

Comment From g-bar chicago dude
should the commissioner let me change my lineup from the previous day if the internet was literally down that entire day and i tried everything i could

	Jason Collette: No. Pandora’s Box should not be opened.

Comment From Bart
Rate these CF’s, Pagan, Crisp, Victorino

	Jason Collette: That order is fine with me

Comment From quinceleather
thanks for all the help. and TSATB….always listen to it on the train and that’s how that is 🙂

	Jason Collette: Thanks for sticking with us!

Comment From dan the man
how far off would a trade of my rizzo for his E5 be?

	Jason Collette: not far off at all

Comment From Gareth
How come every time I see your name I think of razors and shaving cream?

	Jason Collette: and not collect calls?

Comment From Jason
Any worries on Heyward?? Low BABIP but increased K% from last season. Also, what is league average LD rate

	Jason Collette: league average LD% is currently 20.4%. I’m concerned about Heyward K% now that we are at enough PA to consider it an issue.

Comment From Kevin
Any idea what is going on with everth cabrera’s walk rate? This year only 1.6%; career 9.2%

	Jason Collette: He’s chasing a ton of pitches out of the zone. Swinging at 1 of every 3 pitches thrown to him out of the zone – has been 25% rate historically.

Comment From Dignan
What about Alfredo Simon, is he a legit starter?

	Jason Collette: against righties, yep. He shuts them down. He may not go deep into many games, but he needs to be in your NL rosters and deep mixed leagues.

Comment From Grady
What are your thoughts on Latos

	Jason Collette: It’s going to be a risk all year. I didn’t like the situation coming into the season and didn’t roster him anywhere.

Comment From Gabe
My friend keeps offering me the likes of Swisher or Lawrie for Cingrani, while I think a fairer return would be A. Simmons or Heyward. Who’s closer to correct in valuing Cingrani?

	Jason Collette: You are

Comment From Dan Gladden
assuming Kimbrel is fine, drop carpenter? jesse chavez is available

	Jason Collette: Yes, Chavez & the cutter are a nice tandem right now. He’s pitching well

Comment From quinceleather
do u still think aoki can steal 30 this year?

	Jason Collette: 2 down, 28 to go. Probability – 30%

Comment From Guest
I know it’s still early, but I really want to move on one or two guys on the waiver wire (Dozier still hanging out there for some reason). Which of my bench guys is most droppable? Eaton, AJax, Miller, Headley, Porcello, Skaggs?

	Jason Collette: With that depth on your team, explains why Dozier is still out there. Drop either pitcher

Comment From Joe
How good can Hyun Jin Ryu get?

	Jason Collette: We’re seeing him at his best right now. New curve is really a nice weapon for him.

Comment From Bruce
What do you see as the future of Daily Leagues. Will they start taking market share away from full-seasons, fade away,…?

	Jason Collette: Frankly, I don’t care for them myself. I think they will cut into the marketshare of full-season leagues making it harder to recruit new players for leagues. My home leagues have been around since I’ve been in college, but it’s been tougher and tougher to add new talent when someone has to leave the league.

Comment From Guest
should I drop tyler clippard/jake mcgee for say, chris withrow or another hot middle RP? holds don’t matter just looking for ratio improvement

	Jason Collette: Relievers are fungible commodities. Don’t grab the hot hand as it can go cold while the guy you drop heats up. Look at Jake McGee last year after a horrible April – was being dropped everywhere.

Comment From Jake
Fivethirtyeight published a piece (fivethirtyeight.com/datalab…) claiming a team’s record is around half luck, half skill, by 67 games. Think that’s fair?

	Jason Collette: They have the math behind it. In my head, I’d always figured it was 2 parts skill, 1 part luck/breaks through the first third of the season.

Comment From Larry
What do you think is going on with Prince Fielder? At what point does one start to worry?

	Jason Collette: Free agent expectations 101? It’s 70 plate appearances out of 600+. This is a blanket statement for everyone: Unless the player is hurt, I’m not worried about any slow bat to start the season. I’d trade for E5, Fielder..anyone right now at full value.

Comment From APH
better stat for predicting future performance: FIP or SIERA?

	Jason Collette: I like the latter

Comment From SPG
Is Cain/Wheeler worth my Felix?

	Jason Collette: Nope

Comment From Guest
How long can Chavez keep it up? Will he get roughed up 2nd time thru?

	Jason Collette: I worry about stamina, but the new approach and the use of the cutter right no is really nice.

Comment From Derek
Are we seeing a Brandon Belt breakout?

	Jason Collette: He’s giving up patience for aggressiveness and eschewing contact to do it. Marlon Byrd did well wit the approach last year.

Comment From Johnny
Oh Erasmo where are you?

	Jason Collette: In a dumpster fire…ugh

Comment From Dr Angry
I’M STILL PISSED THAT I DROPPED SPRINGER ON MONDAY.

	Jason Collette: Nobody saw this move coming. Nobody.

Comment From Reddickulous
Do you do daily fantasy? Recommend a site/format for beginners? I’m curious, and want to get my feet wet, and lose small amounts of money.

	Jason Collette: I don’t, but have heard good things about draftkings.co

Jason Collette: rather, draftkings.com

Comment From Blackoutrestrictions
Have you ever met a woman who makes a living writing about fantasy baseball?

	Jason Collette: Fantasy nerds meet women?

Comment From Metsfan
Your thoughts on Chris Young- is there a 20/20 left in him?

	Jason Collette: No chance

Comment From Gareth
You aint an official fangraphs host uness you’ve exceed the two hour mark.

	Jason Collette: I did two hours a few times earlier. Today will not be one of those days as I’m heading to the Cigar City Brew House for lunch with another writer today 🙂

Comment From Nailbender
Colabello keeps producing and forcing his way into my 12 team daily points league lineup. Can he keep this up?

	Jason Collette: As long as he keeps hitting cleanup, anything is possible. I’m betting against it, but he has an many RBI as Miggy+Encarnacion+Beltran right now. #ycpb

Comment From Sean
Following up on the Braun question from earlier: what’s your personal take? I know each case is different, but what would you do with your current Braun shares in your Jellybean leagues?

	Jason Collette: I would be selling Braun. I’m too risk adverse

Comment From Gareth
Who turns it around – Masturbating or Salazar?

	Jason Collette: Best autocorrect ever

Comment From Jake
Right now, the Rays project for just 5.6 wins out of their pitching. Ouch

	Jason Collette: I’m still bothered by how Price pitched last night. Refused to come inside and left too many things out and over the plate to be hit. That damn backdoor cutter was a flat slider last night.

Comment From Jake
What FG writer chat should I ask questions concerning projections through depth charts, playoff odds, etc?

	Jason Collette: Cameron, Sarris – one of the guys on the masthead. I still have my rookie status

Comment From aria river north
what writers do you respect the most in fantasy besides your boy paul?

	Jason Collette: Ray Flowers, Todd Zola, Mike Gianella are three of many.

Comment From garrett jones
am i undervalued (got some skills), weak sauce, or meh?

	Jason Collette: the latter 2

Comment From Zach
Do you ever step back from baseball and take a critical look at it’s place in our culture? I love it because of the long tradition dating back to the Civil War, because of the way both skill and luck effect the outcome, and because it was a street game, a game any kid could play with a ball and a stick. Do you ever stop to think about how absurd it is that baseball players and teams rake in billions of dollars each year while one in five children in this country live in poverty? Do you ever feel conflicted knowing that the game we all love has been turned into a profit-generating spectacle that in combination with others sports is one of capitalism’s greatest distractions? Do you ever think to yourself: maybe I should spend less time poring over statistics and game tapes and instead, I don’t know…fight for social justice? Or just don’t give a damn?

	Jason Collette: I love the game for what it is between the lines and don’t let the other factors distract me from that. I love the relationship I have with the sport and my kids that are growing up to love baseball to the point my daughter insists on having a game on TV to fall asleep to.

Comment From APH
With so many teams signing players before they hit arbitration, is it becoming less necessary for teams to worry about the Super 2 cutoff?

	Jason Collette: Only if they feel confident they can get the player signed to the extension.

Comment From K
Are you buying or selling Chris Sale in dynasty leagues? Terrified he’ll go the TJ or shoulder problems route.

	Jason Collette: Holding and enjoying

Comment From Jeb Bush
Will Salazar settle down and figure it out or are we looking at a 1.30+ WHIP for the season?

	Jason Collette: The latter — he is a thrower right now and not a pitcher.

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on Solarte?

	Jason Collette: Playing time gets crowded as Teix comes back on Sunday. Johnson goes back to 3B, Sizemore in the fold….it’s been a nice ride but a guy can’t be a AAA lifer, get waived, & then blow up like this.

Comment From Mark Grace
MLB.tv question: Who makes your list of Top 3 broadcasts? Bonus question: Where does Hawk Harrelson rank?

	Jason Collette: Giants, Mets, Rays (Brian Anderson is a regional treasure). 27 other teams, 5000000 feet of crap, and Hawk Harrelson

Comment From Guest
Can you rank Chirinos Jaso and conger?

	Jason Collette: reverse order

Comment From Nailbender
White Sox bullpen a mess. D Webb the guy to have there?

	Jason Collette: Yes, believe in the Webb. Stuff will win out and he has it.

Comment From ChiTown
Still love Salazar this year?

	Jason Collette: I never loved Salazar this season. I was taking pins and poking holes in the helium balloons for him.

Jason Collette: With that, it’s beer o-clock. Until next week….