JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ian Kinsler

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even as an amateur, Ian Kinsler spent most of his career in someone else’s shadow. At Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson, Arizona — where he played on two state champion teams — and then at Central Arizona Junior College, he played alongside players who were picked much higher in the draft. After transferring to Arizona State, he lost the starting shortstop job to Dustin Pedroia, who had initially moved to second base to accommodate his arrival. With the Rangers, for whom he starred from 2006–13, he was a vital cog on two pennant winners but took a back seat to MVP Josh Hamilton, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltré, and perennial All-Star shortstop Michael Young. Even after being dealt to the Tigers, he drew less attention than Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer.

Particularly in the developmental phase of his career, those slights and oversights left Kinsler with a chip on his shoulder, but also a drive to improve — and improve he did. He starred at his third collegiate stop, the University of Missouri, helped the Rangers emerge as an American League powerhouse while making three All-Star teams, added another All-Star selection in Detroit and won two belated but well-earned Gold Gloves. His 48 leadoff home runs ranks sixth all-time. Twice he combined 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, making him one of just 16 players with repeat membership in the 30-30 club. For the 2007–16 period, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR via a combination of excellent defense, very good baserunning, and above-average hitting.

Though he played “only” 14 years in the majors, Kinsler largely got (and provided) his money’s worth. His arrival in the big leagues wasn’t excessively delayed like that of ballot-mate Chase Utley, and his career wasn’t cut short by injuries like that of Pedroia, who is also debuting on this ballot. That leaves Kinsler with a fairly straightforward Hall of Fame case, albeit one that may not get enough support from voters to clear 5% and retain eligibility — though that shouldn’t obscure what a fine player he was.

Ian Michael Kinsler was born on June 22, 1982 in Tucson to parents Howard and Kathleen Kinsler. Howard, a Bronx native who played basketball at the University of Arizona, worked as a warden at a Tucson prison. He discovered his son had some natural baseball talent at an early age. “I’d toss him fly balls when he was four, and he’d get under them like he’d been doing it his whole life,” he told Sports Illustrated’s Albert Chen in 2008.

Howard pitched batting practice and hit groundballs to Ian all the way through college; he also coached several of his son’s teams growing up. He was, as you might have guessed given his occupation, a disciplinarian. Though Ian was the star of his Pony League team at 13 years old, Howard sat him for rolling his eyes at him. “I benched him, without hesitation,” Howard told Chen. “Everyone was like, ‘What are you doing?’ It was one of my warden moves. Don’t roll your eyes or you’re going into lockup.” Without Ian, the team lost.

At Canyon Del Oro High School, where he was teammates with future major leaguers Brian Anderson, Chris Duncan, Shelley Duncan, and Scott Hairston, Ian helped his team to state championships as a freshman in 1997 and as a senior in 2000. He earned second-team all-league honors as a junior, and first-team all-league and all-state as a senior, for hitting .504 with five homers and 26 stolen bases.

The Diamondbacks drafted Kinsler in the 29th round in 2000; the choice took the six-foot, 165-pound Kinsler — who hadn’t been recruited by any four-year college programs or been the focal point of any scout’s visits — by surprise. Knowing that he needed time to physically mature, the Diamondbacks intended him to be a draft-and-follow, but between their meager budget and Howard’s vision of his son’s development, Ian passed. “I don’t remember what the number was, but I honestly wasn’t ready, just in terms of maturity, and it made me a little nervous just thinking about going to play minor league baseball at the time,” Kinsler told MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo for Smart, Wrong, and Lucky: The Origin Stories of Baseball’s Unexpected Stars.

Instead, Kinsler headed to Central Arizona Junior College, where he played shortstop on a team with Hairston and Rich Harden. He hit .403, stole 22 bases, made second-team all-conference and was drafted by the Diamondbacks again, this time in the 26th round, but again, he passed, this time to transfer to Arizona State, where coach Pat Murphy (now the Brewers’ manager) planned for him to play shortstop and shift Pedroia, the incumbent, to second. Murphy did not yet have an available scholarship, however, leaving Kinsler in limbo until one opened up in the spring of 2001. Rusty, he didn’t perform well, managing just two extra base hits in 61 at-bats. “The first couple games of the season, I played well,” Kinsler told Chen, “but then we hosted a tournament early in the season: four games in four days. I played like crap.” He lost the shortstop job to Pedroia and rode the bench.

Disappointed but not embittered, Kinsler worked to improve, and decided to transfer again. Wanting to remain at shortstop, he bypassed Long Beach State, which showed interest but which had Troy Tulowitzki (also debuting on this ballot) slated to play the position. Instead he chose the University of Missouri, whose coach, Tim Jameison, had spotted him playing for a team called the Liberal Bee Jays in the Jayhawks League, a Kansas-based wood bat summer league. “I didn’t even know where Missouri was on the map at the time,” Kinsler told Mayo. “I knew I was playing shortstop in the Big 12 and that’s all that mattered.”

Things clicked for Kinsler at Missouri. He asserted himself as a team leader, showed some power, earned second-team all-conference honors, and helped the school to its first NCAA Regionals bid since 1996. The Dodgers and Rangers showed the most interest, with the latter viewing him as an eighth-to-10th-round talent but believing he might slip further. The Rangers finally chose Kinsler in the 17th round. He signed for a modest $30,000 bonus and began his career with Low-A Spokane of the Northwest League, where he hit .277/.352/.410 with 11 steals in 51 games. After an offseason strength program, Kinsler began the 2004 season at A-level Clinton; he absolutely tore up the Midwest League, hitting .402/.465/.692 with 11 homers and 16 steals in 60 games before earning a mid-June promotion to Double-A Frisco. He continued to hit well (.300/.400/.480) and finished the year with 51 doubles, 20 homers, and 23 steals. In July, the Rangers agreed to deal Kinsler and pitching prospect Erik Thompson to the Rockies for Larry Walker, but the future Hall of Famer exercised his no-trade clause, scuttling the deal.

Though impressed by Kinsler’s improved bat speed, scouts weren’t entirely sold on the rest of the package. He grazed Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list at no. 98 in the spring of 2005, with the publication writing, “He swings with gusto but still makes consistent contact and gets his share of walks and hit by pitches (18). Kinsler’s hands, arm, speed and instincts are all average. That may not be enough for him to stay at shortstop, and second base is his likely future destination.” The future arrived quickly, as he shifted to the keystone so as not to be blocked either by Young, who had just made his first of six straight All-Star teams, or prospect Joaquin Arias. Kinsler spent all of 2005 at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he hit .274/.348/.464 with 23 homers and 19 steals.

In December 2005, the Rangers traded incumbent second baseman Alfonso Soriano — who was coming off a 36-homer, 30-steal season — to the Nationals, clearing a path for Kinsler. He won the second base job in spring training, made the Opening Day lineup, and in his debut on April 3, drew a single and a walk against the Red Sox’s Curt Schilling. Three days later, he went 3-for-3 with a double and a homer off the Tigers’ Nate Robertson.

Off to a 10-for-21 start to his career, Kinsler dislocated his left thumb sliding into second base on April 11 and missed six weeks. He returned to the lineup with a 3-for-4, two-homer game on May 25 against the A’s; his second homer, off Kiko Calero, tied the game in the eighth inning before Phil Nevin won it with a walk-off homer of Huston Street in the ninth. Though Kinsler dealt with a midseason power outage, he finished his rookie season with a .286/.347/.454 (105 OPS+) line, 14 homers, and seven steals.

Kinsler began the 2007 season by homering seven times in the Rangers’ first 12 games, starting with an Opening Day shot off the Angels’ John Lackey. A dreadful 2-for-43 slump in early May took the shine off that hot start, and he missed all but one game in July due to a stress fracture in his right foot. Still, between his 20 homers, 23 steals (in 25 attempts) and improved defense, he batted .263/.355/.441 (108 OPS+) and jumped from 1.9 WAR to 4.1.

Recognizing Kinsler as a key building block, the Rangers signed him to a five-year, $22 million extension in February 2008. With manager Ron Washington making him the team’s regular leadoff hitter (a role he’d experimented with in 2007), Kinsler rewarded the team’s faith with an offensive breakout, hitting .319/.375/.517 with 18 homers, 26 steals (in 28 attempts) and a 134 OPS+, the last of which would stand as a career high. He made his first All-Star team and finished with 4.7 WAR. Even with a 66-point drop in batting average and a 27-point drop in OPS+ in 2009, he improved to 6.0 WAR (ninth in the AL), hitting .253/.327/.488 and joining the 30-30 club for the first time, with 31 homers and 31 steals. On April 15, 2009, he had perhaps the best day of his career, going 6-for-6 while hitting for the cycle, with five runs scored, and four RBI in a 19-6 win over the Orioles. The Rangers, in their third year under Washington, won 87 games, their best showing since 2004.

In 2010, Kinsler was limited to 103 games, nine homers and 15 steals due to a high ankle sprain and a groin strain, but he still made the AL All-Star team and finished with a 110 OPS+ and 4.0 WAR. The Rangers won 90 games and the AL West. In their first postseason since 1999, Kinsler wore out the Rays in the Division Series, going 8-for-18 with three homers and six RBI. He hit a go-ahead solo homer off Matt Garza in the seventh inning of Game 3 to put Texas up 2-1, but Tampa Bay rallied to win that one. Kinsler iced the series with a two-run homer off Rafael Soriano in the ninth inning of Game 5, turning a 3-1 lead into a 5-1 one. He then helped the Rangers beat the Yankees in the ALCS before losing to the Giants in a five-game World Series.

Kinsler gave the Rangers another shot at a championship with his best all-around season in 2011. While setting a career high with 7.0 WAR (eighth in the AL) and going 30-30 again (32 homers and 30 steals in 34 attempts), he hit .255/.355/.477 (118 OPS+). He was an on-base machine in the postseason, batting .308/.438/.431 while also driving in a total of 11 runs against the Rays, Tigers, and Cardinals. He led off Division Series Game 4 with a homer off the Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson; with a 4-3 win, the team clinched the series that night. He doubled off the Tigers’ Rick Porcello in the sixth inning of ALCS Game 4, driving in Texas’ first run in what became an 11-inning, 7-3 comeback win, then broke open Game 6 by driving in two more against Porcello with a third-inning single; the Rangers clinched that series with a 15-5 rout. In Game 2 of the World Series, Kinsler put on a show, with slick defense that included a barehanded pivot on a fourth-inning double play, and a strong offensive performance that included three times reaching base. The last of those came via a bloop single off closer Jason Motte to lead off the top of the ninth with the Rangers down 1-0. Kinsler then stole second against Yadier Molina and scored the tying run on Hamilton’s sacrifice fly. The Rangers added a second run to win the game and even the series.

Though Kinsler collected two hits and one walk in each of Games 6 and 7 — driving in a pair of runs in the former — the Rangers lost both.

In April 2012, just as Kinsler began the final guaranteed year of his extension, he and the Rangers reworked his $10 million club option for ’13 into a five-year, $75 million extension that included a vesting option for ’18 as well as a limited no-trade clause. Continuing an even-year trend, the 30-year-old Kinsler made his third All-Star team, but slumped to a 97 OPS+ (.256/.326/.423) and 2.4 WAR. The Rangers won 93 games but lost the first AL Wild Card Game despite Kinsler’s two hits.

Kinsler rebounded to a 106 OPS+ and 5.0 WAR in 2013, as the Rangers finished the 162-game schedule tied with the Rays at 91-71; the two teams played a tiebreaker game to determine the Wild Card spot, but the Rangers lost. Just before Thanksgiving, the team sent Kinsler to the Tigers in a challenge trade of sorts, with slugger Prince Fielder and $30 million heading to Texas. The move was supposed to open up second base for former no. 1 prospect Jurickson Profar in Texas while providing Detroit with an upgrade over free agent Omar Infante. The Tigers had reached the World Series in 2012 and the ALCS in ’13, manager Jim Leyland’s final season. With Brad Ausmus taking over, they won 90 games and the AL Central in 2014, as Kinsler hit .275/.307/.420 (103 OPS+) with 17 homers, 15 steals, and exceptional defense (14 DRS) en route to 5.1 WAR and his fourth and final All-Star selection. This time, however, Detroit made a quick exit, getting swept by Baltimore in the Division Series, where Kinsler went just 1-for-12.

Kinsler had two more stellar seasons for the Tigers, totaling 10.3 WAR in 2015 and ’16. In the latter season, he hit 28 homers, stole 14 bases, and batted .288/.348/.484 for a 122 OPS+, his best mark since 2008. He also secured his first Gold Glove, a long-overdue honor for a player whose 82 DRS from 2007–16 ranked third among all second basemen. After sinking to 74 wins in 2015, the Tigers won 86 games in ’16, but still fell three games short of a Wild Card spot.

In the spring of 2017, Kinsler served as the regular second baseman for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He went 8-for-30 in the tournament, with a two-run homer off Puerto Rico’s Seth Lugo to open the scoring in the Finals, an 8-0 win that secured Team USA’s first gold medal in the tournament’s history.

The Tigers collapsed to 64 wins in 2017, and the 35-year-old Kinsler started to show his age, hitting just .236/.313/.412 (92 OPS+) with a drop to 2.0 WAR. By surpassing the 600-PA threshold, he vested an $11 million option for 2018. The Tigers, now in rebuilding mode, sent him to the Angels in December in exchange for a pair of low-level prospects (righty Wilkel Hernandez and outfielder Troy Montgomery) who never panned out. Kinsler’s bat didn’t really recover, but he played such excellent defense that he claimed his second Gold Glove despite being traded again in late July, this time to Boston for righty Ty Buttrey and lefty Williams Jerez. The Red Sox were in command of the AL East but struggling to cover for the loss of Pedroia, who had undergone experimental knee surgery the previous winter and would be limited to just three games all season, so president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who had traded for Kinsler in Detroit, acquired him again.

Though he hit just .242/.294/.311 (64 OPS+) after the trade and missed time due to a hamstring strain, Kinsler shared second base duties with Brock Holt during the postseason. He hit just .206/.229/.294 in the postseason while striking out in 14 of 34 PA, but nonetheless scattered a few key hits in there as the Red Sox steamrolled the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. At long last, he had earned a World Series ring.

A free agent for the first time, Kinsler landed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Padres in December 2018. He scuffled, hitting jut .217/.278/.368 (71 wRC+) and playing sparingly in the second half before landing on the injured list in mid-August due to a herniated cervical disc. In his final game, on August 12, 2019, he made the first pitching appearance of his professional career in the ninth inning with the Padres trailing the Rays 10-2; he worked around a hit, a hit-by-pitch, and two walks to post a scoreless inning (he needed a double play), then hit a two-run homer off Andrew Kittredge. It was the 1,999th and final hit of his career.

In December, the 37-year-old Kinsler announced his retirement, saying, “My pride wouldn’t let me go halfway at something that I’ve been doing at 100 percent for my whole baseball life… I gave it everything I had. It’s time to do something else.” The Padres announced that he would join their front office as an advisor and work out a financial settlement for his remaining salary.

Kinsler wasn’t entirely done playing, however. Digging into his Jewish roots on his father’s side, he obtained dual citizenship with Israel, and after a tuneup that included five games with the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League in July 2021, joined Team Israel for the Tokyo Olympics. The team finished fifth out of six in the Olympics. The next year, he was named Team Israel’s manager, and he oversaw their World Baseball Classic squad in 2023. They went 1-3 in pool play, which wasn’t enough to advance to the quarterfinals but did guarantee them a berth in the 2026 WBC.

…

Kinsler doesn’t have milestones that will particularly stand out to Hall of Fame voters. As with Pedroia, Utley, and David Wright, he’s on the wrong side of 2,000 hits, significant as the writers have yet to elect a post-1960 expansion era player below that mark. Not until the election of Tony Oliva via the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot had such a player been elected to the Hall by any means. Utley (1,885 hits) or more likely Andruw Jones (1,933) are the most likely candidates to topple that precedent, but they’ve got a ways to go; the latter, a 10-time Gold Glove winner, received 61.6% last year, his seventh on the ballot.

Kinsler’s total of 246 homers as a second baseman is tied with Hall of Famer Joe Gordon for seventh at the position, which is impressive. Even so, it’s two rungs below Utley (252), and it’s also worth remembering that Jeff Kent’s record 351 homers as a second baseman wasn’t enough by itself for him to come close to reaching 75%.

Kinsler doesn’t have the kind of hardware that would accelerate his progress towards Cooperstown. His four All-Star appearances and two Gold Gloves make for a comparatively light collection of honors, and he never even cracked the top 10 in MVP voting. He scores just 67 on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, which dishes out credit for things that have tended to sway voters: seasons with eye-catching plateaus such as 30 homers, 100 RBI, and 100 runs, careers at .300 or better, awards, league leads in key stats, and playoff appearances. By comparison, Utley and Pedroia both score 94, a few points short of “a good possibility.”

Advanced statistics make a better case for Kinsler. His 107 OPS+ isn’t remarkable, but what was special about Kinsler was that his contributions went well beyond his bat. He stole 243 bases in his career, at a 76.6% clip, not too shabby for a player whom scouts judged even in his prospect days as having only average speed; he was above 80% through 2014 before declining with age. He was 39 runs above average via his baserunning, tied for 23rd among Wild Card-era players, though his -11 runs on double play avoidance cuts into that value. He was 87 runs above average in the field, 17th among second basemen but well behind both Utley (131, seventh) and Pedroia (99, 13th).

Though he only cracked his league’s top 10 in WAR twice, Kinsler was exceptionally consistent. From 2007–16, he averaged 4.8 WAR per season, and dipped below 4.0 only once (2.4 in 2012). Only in his final season did he have a year below 1.9 WAR. For that 2007–16 decade, his 48.5 WAR ranked sixth in the majors, behind only Robinson Canó (57.5), Beltré (56.2), Albert Pujols (55.3), Cabrera (54.8), and Pedroia (50.6) — all Hall-caliber talents even if they won’t all wind up in Cooperstown; notably, Kinsler is just ahead of Joey Votto (48.1) and Utley (46.6). His 54.1 WAR ranks 20th all-time among second basemen, ahead of seven of the 20 non-Negro Leagues Hall of Famers, not to mention Pedroia (51.9), but behind all of the ones who were elected by the writers. His 38.1 peak WAR ranks 21st, ahead of eight Hall of Famers but again, none of them were BBWAA selections. Pedroia (41.0), the still-active Marcus Semien (40.6) and Jose Altuve (39.8), and first-year candidate Ben Zobrist (39.7) are all just above him, while Utley (49.3) is a mile above him. Kinsler’s 46.1 JAWS is 21st at the position, again ahead of seven of 20 Hall of Famers, all committee selections. He’s nearly 11 full points below the standard of 57.0.

Kinsler had an impressive career, but as a candidate, he just doesn’t have a hook that elevates him above Utley or Pedroia, both of whom were more valuable in shorter careers, and with greater postseason success to boot. There’s no shame in that, but at a position where my Hall wish list includes Utley and two of the four players featured at length in The Cooperstown Casebook but yet to be elected, namely Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker — both with higher WAR and JAWS — I can’t make room on my ballot for Kinsler. Still, even if he goes one-and-done, it’s worth remembering what an excellent player he was.