Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2026! I’ll get this going momentarily (having a chat with a reporter about Hall of Fame stuff)

Jay Jaffe: OK, I’m back! Happy New Year to you all.

Jay Jaffe: Hope you had good holiday breaks. If you missed it, I published my Hall of Fame ballot explainer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot

Jay Jaffe: and yesterday began the One-and-Done portion of the ballot with a profile of Hunter Pence https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-hunt…

Jay Jaffe: I did include a couple of one-and-dones in the pre-holiday coverage, namely Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnación, but I gave their careers longer treatments. Likewise for the next profile, Shin-Soo Choo.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the questions!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your initial takeaways from all of the new Hall of Fame voters for this cycle?

Jay Jaffe: Two things, interrelated:

1) I’m very surprised at the strength of support for the starting pitchers. On the Tracker, Félix Hernández is at 58.7%, Andy Pettitte at 56.5%, Cole Hamels 32.6%, and Mark Buehrle 23.2%

Jay Jaffe: 2) the extent to which the first-time voters, many of them from MLB.com, have supportd the above (26 of 30 for Félix, 21 of 30 for Pettitte, 16 of 30 for Hamels, 12 of 30 for Buehrle)

Jay Jaffe: not to mention the newcomers going 30 for 30 on Beltrán and 27 for 30 for Andruw

Jay Jaffe: The pitching discussion has been reshaped already and it’s going to be very interesting where this leads, even if some of that support is soft thanks to this very thin ballot

James: Saw a tweet advocating for Vizquel over Andruw Jones for Hall of Fame on the basis of batting average, hits, and fielding percentage. In your estimation, how many actual HoF voters would still agree with that methodology.

Jay Jaffe: A minority. Jones had nearly 4x the support Vizquel did in the final results last year, and that’s with both being connected to domestic violence incidents. Vizquel has the additional sexual harassment allegation, which occurred in a baseball context, but I sstill think it’s clear that the old stats don’t carry as much weight anymore with voters

sodo mojo: Given his leap this year is it a given that Felix gets into the hall while he is still eligible or given his lack of WAR and counting stats is there still doubt?

Jay Jaffe: I do think a lot of this support is rather soft (admittedly, mine is) so I don’t take it as a given but this probably guarantees a 10-year ballot run and as we see, the times they are a-changin’

BenjaminJ: Which HOF candidate has WAR helped the most since you started writing on the Hall of Fame? Which candidate has been hurt the most by WAR? If you could not use WAR as a guide, how would you try to re-create your JAWS system?

Jay Jaffe: I think you can point to a lot of the slow-starting candidates that I’d characterize as “my guys” who eventually got into the Hall as the ones most helped: Raines, Edgar, Rolen, Helton, Wagner

Jay Jaffe: As for most hurt, that’s tougher. Some of the committee candidates who don’t fare well via WAR were getting lousy support from the writers even before people were widely aware of the metric (think Mattingly, Murphy, and the now-elected Fred McGriff and Dave Parker). Jack Morris was probably hurt by it but he’s in, likewise Jeff Kent.

Abreu’s Toughest Soldier: Hi Jay! Thanks as always for your terrific HOF season coverage. Felix’s meteoric rise seems to be the top tracker takeaway at the moment, but it looks like Andy Pettitte and Bobby Abreu, among others, are on pace for decent gains as well. They’re running out of time, though — which middle of the ballot type guys do you think could make a serious run for 75% before their ten years expires?

Jay Jaffe: The Tracker guys pointed out that Abreu was ahead of Larry Walker’s year-7 pace but Walker needed an incredible close to his candidacy and I don’t think Abreuis as strong a candidate (no batting titles or MVP, for example). Pettitte still does have the HGH baggage that costs him some support. Utley (39.8% last year, 66.7% in the Tracker) is already in the zone where election is more likely than not. I think there’s a real drop-off from him to the odds of eventual election for the rest

Jay Jaffe: because Manny and A-Rod aren’t getting in

Jay Jaffe: and Rollins (18% last year, 26.8%) is still languishing

Jay Jaffe: OK, time for some non-HOF q’s

charles ranson: why does alex bregman think hes going to get the contract he didnt get last year, this year?

Jay Jaffe: For one thing, he doesn’t have the drag of draft pick compensation this time. Also, he showed he could adapt to a new team, on and off the field

Guest: What do you expect from Cam Schlittler this year?  If he stays healthy, is he a legit #2?

Jay Jaffe: From what we’ve seen, he looks like he maybe could be a 2 but more likely a 3 (his FIP and xERA were well behind his ERA). I imagine the Yankees will try not to push him too hard given the risks that come with such high velo. I’d expect 150-160ish innings out of him

Guest: Which of Atlanta’s Spencers do you think will do better next year?  And are there any pitching Spencers on the horizon that the Braves can corner the market with.

Jay Jaffe: Nothing against Schwellenbach but I hope it’s Strider because pre-surgery he was so damn fun. The stuff and command were both way down, though. Maybe it was pretty typical post-injury stuff (he had internal brace surgery, not full TJ) and maybe with a full offseason to focus on his form instead of rehab he’ll be back to where he was

Jay Jaffe: Maybe they can trade for Spencer Arrighetti?

Rendon: Given the Angels aren’t projected to be competitive this year, would they have been better off baseball-wise eating the rest of the Anthony Rendon contract this year, or does spreading the money out give them more room to spend on guys who will help them in future seasons?

Jay Jaffe: Tax-wise I think it’s probably to everybody’s advantage to spread it out, whether or not the Angels do throw the savings into 2026 payroll, and maybe they can use that money to … oh, who am I kidding they’re not gonna do anything constructive with it.

Mr. Burrito: I’m not saying they should do this, but could a package of Sheehan and, say, Freeland, pry Duran out of Boston? I can’t take more Teo in RF and getting Duran after a semi-down season could be a coup.

Jay Jaffe: I can’t see Joe Sheehan ever going to Boston… oh, wait you’re talking about Emmet Sheehan. Feels like a lot to give him and Freeland up for a guy who had a pretty meh age-28 season.

Guest: Juan Soto is somehow only going into his age 27 season and already has 42 bWAR/fWAR. How much more (besides playing at least 2 more years) does he need to do to feel like a HOF lock?

Jay Jaffe: Well, he’s already part of the 40-WAR 7-year peak club (40.4) so I’d say he feels pretty close to a lock to me, but maybe once he gets to 50 WAR overall it will be that much more clear

Justin: Hi Jay! What are the odds that the HOF asks you to be part of an era committee sometime? On the one hand you are the perfect person for that, but on the other you do not shy away from critiquing aspects of the HOF that need critiquing. Seems like that could be an interesting experience if it were to come your way.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t expect to be asked anytime soon because yes, I am vocal in my critiques of the Hall. I do have good working relationships with some key point people there, and I’m grateful for that, but I’m also on record about most of the candidates already — and since that’s an area for which I’ve criticized the Hall in assembling the committees, I’d have to think long and hard about whether I could do that.

Jay Jaffe: If it ever happens for me, I expect it to be further down the road. It would be very cool to do someday, but I’m plenty happy that I get to cover the Hall with as much candor and detail as I do, and if being a committee member compromises that, I don’t think that would be a positive

Paul Dewgong: Do you think Jim Edmonds every gets another serious look? I still can’t believe he was 1 and done and is similar if not better than Andruw Jones IMO

Jay Jaffe: I think the openings created by the new rule and the fact that Delgado, a one-and-done, got a look on the 2026 one both bode well for him getting on a ballot sooner or later. Getting elected… I think that’s still a longshot.

2131, 1312: Are there any guys coming onto the ballot in the next few years who you think have their prospects changed the most by what we’ve seen of this year’s voting?

Jay Jaffe: I like Chris Sale’s odds even more now.

Jay Jaffe: and still think Gerrit Cole has a pretty good shot if he can get back to pitching at an above-average cliip

TameImp: We always take about the obvious HOF misses like Grich and Whitaker that we know more about with modern stats, but how did Ken Boyer slip through the cracks? 11x all star, MVP, multiple gold gloves on a WS winning team?

Jay Jaffe: yeah it’s really strange. He’s got a very Rolen-esque career plus the MVP, and dying young (age 51, 1982) didn’t seem to drive the usual boost in voting fortunes, for as morbid a thought as that is.

Pierre: I know you indicated Pedroia and Wright won’t be getting your vote.  But is there any meaningful distinction between the two?  It’s been surprising how many voters have picked one but not the other.  Also, I know this isn’t really relevant, but is the difference between Puckett and these guys the indelible image of the ’91 World Series and the sense Kirby was just a fun guy?

Jay Jaffe: There’s a bit of daylight between Pedroia and Wright, IMO, in that the former was an MVP and ROY with two championships, but yes I’d think most voters inclined for one would see the other as similar enough to include. And while I didn’t vote for either of them this year, I’m not saying I never would; the Era Committee electing someone like Mattingly or Murphy might make me think harder about supporting this pair.

Jay Jaffe: As for Puckett, he was a centerpiece on two underdogs who won (don’t forget 1987, that was a major upset with an 85-win team beating a 95-win one) and he was great in that series as well. Plus yes, the “good guy” image (which proved to be concealing some truly awful stuff)

Pumpsie: Are the big markets staying quiet in FA to avoid the perceptions that lead to salary cap discussions? Or will the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, et al return to previous spending levels by signing Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger, et al?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect once Tucker signs, some other dominoes will fall, and that the Yankees and Mets will both come away with somebody big. Less sure about the Dodgers given their payroll; a trade may be more likely than another 9-figure free agent.

Strat o Matic Fanatic: Jaffe – did you catch the article on PhamGraphs? Does Tommy Pham make some valid points?

Jay Jaffe: yeah, it was good for a giggle. I think Craig Goldstein dug into this enough on Bluesky to show that via DRC+ (which adjusts for everything), Pham didn’t face pitching that was so much harder that it demands reevaluation. See https://bsky.app/profile/cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com/post/3mbpf…

Jay Jaffe: One thing to remember is that perception isn’t performance. I wonder about Pham facing some pitchers who may have been, say, great in 2023-24 but were ordinary last year? Thinking of Spencer Strider, for one that we’ve already mentioned.

Gary: Change my mind: for the HOF, Felix Hernandez = Dale Murphy. Both have the aura and high (but not extraordinary) peaks, but with little value outside of that.

Jay Jaffe: There’s something to that, but also something broader with regards to the way young pitching is handled and the injury risks young pitchers face

Jay Jaffe: so I don’t totally buy the comparison enough to try to convince anyone here with my limited time.

Mr. Burrito: Should shin-soo choo or maybe Chan ho Park get HOF lovr in the way Fernando might, as cultural ambassadors who happened to be great players? I don’t think Chan Ho was that good, necessarily,  but he kinda broke through for the Korean community. And Shin-soo was a very strong player imo…

Jay Jaffe: I have great affection and respect for Choo and Park (recall that I did raise a stink about the latter not being on the 2016 ballot, so I’m esp. glad that the former is on this year) and have developed quite an affection for the cross-pollination with the KBO thanks to 2020, but Fernando’s impact was much greater due to the demographics and geography of Los Angeles and the US — and that still didn’t move the needle enough to get him anywhere with Era Committee voters this time around. In fact, it put him in a bigger hole than he’d been in!

Alex: Hi Jay, I know JAWS is based on B-Ref WAR, but I’m curious to what extent you at least peek at FanGraphs and other systems. For a candidate like Pettitte you see as borderline but who looks strong by FanGraphs WAR, I imagine it could make a difference, even just as sort of a tiebreaker. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: My evaluations of catchers is now fWAR based because bWAR doesn’t incorporate framing (even though there’s a version of DRS that includes it). But I’m not a big fan of using fWAR for pitchers because we know that the naive model of defense not mattering over large sample sizes doesn’t hold up well — especially now that we have quality of contact stats that help us understand the stuff better.

War2D2: Happy new year Jay! Hope 2026 is great for you and yours! I got into an “argument” with a friend comparing the Hall cases of Hamels and Pettitte (for whatever reason we both agreed that King Felix had the “it factor” even though all his counting stats paled in comparison and would both vote for him, and Buehrle was dismissed out of hand for having whatever the opposite of “it” is). For me Hamels is the only one I give a second look to. He and Pettitte basically have the same stats, but it took Pettitte like 600 more IP (and an indeterminate amount of HGH) to get there. My friend pointed to the discrepancy between their respective fWAR numbers. I countered (with an obvious and shameful appeal to authority) that you used bWAR. He was unmoved. Would you mind restating why you have a preference for bWAR when it comes to historical pitching data? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: This is in the same vein. bWAR does adjust for defense and quality of opposition, which fWAR does not. Those adjustments may be a bit crude but I think they’re worth taking into account, and likewise the variance in sequencing and quality of contact that results in different run prevention abilities. I’ve found that fWAR kinda breaks down in low-K, low-HR environments (think Deadball Era) too

War2D2: Cubs have been very disappointing this offseason. They did a nice job rebuilding the bullpen on the margins, I think, but there’s little to no expectation they bring back Tucker, and they’re still an arm short. Imai went for half what people were predicting and they still wouldn’t spend to bring him in. What, if anything, is your expectation for the rest of their offseason?

Jay Jaffe: I wish I had a better read on them but i do expect them to do … something, especially for the rotation. Landing either Ranger Suárez or Framber Valdez would help but they really need a true ace and there isn’t one on the board.

Juan P.: Does the showing for the SPs (and now seemingly likelihood of Felix’s induction) make it inevitable that Johan gets on the next Modern Era ballot?  I know that that process is opaque, but I refuse to believe anyone outside the Pacific Northwest thinks Felix is more deserving than Johan is.

Jay Jaffe: there is nothing inevitable, Era Committee-wise, about a candidate who goes one-and-done on the BBWAA ballot no matter how much chatter there is among Hallwatchers.

Jay Jaffe: I think the odds that Santana is on the 2029 ballot are better than 50%, but I wouldn’t call them a lock by any means. Even if Hernández and Hamels were to get elected before the 2029 Era Committee ballot is drawn up (don’t bet on it), we’re still talking about a pitcher with 20-something fewer wins and 600- or 700 fewer innings than those two. The Historical Overview Committee that makes up the Era ballots is as capable of breaking hearts as the Era Committees themselves.

RetireNutting: Should Pirates fans just lower their expectations at this point after getting overexcited about the GM doing _anything at all_ and just accept Triolo will be the 3B?

Jay Jaffe: Pirates fans should have low expectations to begin with but adding Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn is already a couple steps in the right direction, and while I wouldn’t expect them to land Bregman or Eugenio Suárez, their signings could shake somebody loose for a trade. Maybe

Guest: Does it seem like Strider may be like Syndergaard, to a lesser extent– unable to recapture what he had pre-TJS? Do you have a rough idea of what percentage of pitchers aren’t able to fully recover from the surgery?

Jay Jaffe: Strider seems far more intelligent when it comes to understanding biomechanics and physical limitations than the guy who proved himself to be Nuke LaLoosh II (remember skipping the MRI and then tearing his lat in 2017?)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have any idea of the % of guys who don’t get it back because that’s a tough thing to define and a massive study to perform.

Jay Jaffe: if anyone’s doing it, they’re working for a team or at least not sharing that info publicly

MattStats5: Jay, no question.  Just dropped in to say I love your work, especially your Hall of Fame coverage.  One of the main reasons I subscribe to Fangraphs.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you for the kind words!

Williams R: Duran had a “meh” 4-WAR 2025 season?  I’m not even a Red Sox fan and I just do not understand some of the discourse around Duran… I think he’s way better than people give him credit for and I’ve been crossing my fingers the Mets trade for him

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Duran had a huge July and was pretty ordinary the rest of the time.

Jay Jaffe: and he did that as a more or less league-average LF rather than a plus CF, which he was in 2024.

Jay Jaffe: he’s still a very good ballplayer, maybe better than he showed in 2025, but I’m not trading the farm for him. YMMV

Broken Bat: Curios what you did with your vote the year Baines was elected into HOF. How did you vote, and why?

Jay Jaffe: That was the 2019 election cycle, I did not yet have an official ballot. My virtual ballot explainer is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-virtual-2019-hall-of-fame-ballo…

Jay Jaffe: Bonds, Clemens, Edgar (final year, elected), Halladay, Mussina, Rivera, Helton, Rolen, Walker, Wagner. Everybody now in except for BB and RC

Darryl B.: Further to your response regarding Sale and Cole, am I wrong to think that the real beneficiary here might be DeGrom?  The case for Felix appears virtually identical to DeGrom’s (just the shape of their career is different).

Jay Jaffe: All of this could help deGrom but to be clear, his bodies of work is shaped quite differently from Félix’s. deGrom is nearly equal in S-JAWS despite throwing about 1,200 fewer innings and winning 73 fewer games; those gaps will close but not by a ton given that we’re talking about a guy entering his age-38 season.

Frankie: Has Bellingers market really appreciated that much since his last forays into free agency?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s shown both that 2023 was a little fluky (the 2-strike performance didn’t hold up to the same degree) and yet not all that fluky — suitors can feel much better about his floor now unlike when he had one good year after two dreadful ones and a meh 2020. But he’s also older, so these things offset each other to some degree

Ranger S.: Am I second fiddle behind Framber V. or are we waiting for the same few teams to decide/max out?

Jay Jaffe: not sure I’d say second fiddle. Younger and with less mileage has its appeal, but then again the pitch modeling shows that they get to a similar spot via different routes, with Suarez’s pinpoint command offsetting lesser stuff, and vice versa for Valdez.

Colt Emerson FT 3B: It seems likely to me that Bregman is going to end up back on the red sox but do you think there are any dark horse contenders to sign him? I know the mariners were floated at one point but that seemed more negotiating tactics than anything substantial.

Jay Jaffe: I do think the Cubs could still land him IF they’re willing to get aggressive. But that seems to be a load-bearing IF

Alby: What if anything is behind the Hall’s shunning of Lou Whitaker? He’s been talked about as an oversight forever. Does that play a role in their thinking?

Jay Jaffe: Again, don’t take anything for granted when it comes to the one-and-done guys. There’s been turnover and more diversity in recent years but the HOC that makes the ballot has historically been a lot of the guys who bypassed Whitaker on the BBWAA ballot, and now the player pool is getting deeper as the PED guys join it and the ballot gets smaller.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, my stomach is growling and my window is closing here. Thanks so much for stopping by! We’ll do this again soon.