Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/18/18

Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, folks. Welcome to another edition of my October chat. Forgive me for being a bit late and a bit frazzled. The impact of this crazy-ass postseason on the Jaffe-Span household — late nights and an accommodating but not entirely unforgiving 2-year-old — is taking its toll. We’ll see if I can give you a few good innings, though.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Two teams are a win away from the World Series. Which is more likely to choke?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you can throw a choke label on a team up 3-2 losing the final two games on the road in the same way that you could with regards to a team up 3-1 with the cushion of going home even if they lose Game 5.

But I’m not really a fan of the term “choke” in general. These are four excellent teams with strengths and weaknesses and very skilled players who nonetheless have their vulnerabilities. The routes they take may confuse us but I’ve seen enough baseball that no outcome from among the remaining series would surprise me.

stever20: why is Kershaw so hot and cold in the playoffs these last 3 years?  When he’s great like yesterday he’s great (1.13 ERA last 3 years).  When he’s bad, he’s awful(7.63 ERA last 3 years).

Jay Jaffe: Why does anyone have good days and bad days? How the hell does any pitcher survive throwing the ball hard a hundred or so times a night to various locations while avoiding discernable patterns against skilled hitters outfitted with incredible means of decoding those patterns?

Baseball is hard. That’s why Kershaw, Price and anybody else in October struggles at times.

Wes: Bregman or Benintendi over the next 10 years?

Jay Jaffe: Bregman and it’s not close. Demonstrated MVP-caliber play at times, and plays a much more impactful position.

Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: How crazy is it that the news cycle for the Brewers’ “starter” gambit was only a few hours thanks to the Mookie Betts play?

Jay Jaffe: From where I sit, both are still newsworthy, but obviously, the prime time one, with a single play (viewable from multiple angles) is going to capture more eyeballs than the more abstract switcheroo.

Derek: That game last night was incredible. But holy crap can we please find a way to not let playoff baseball games last 5 hours?

Jay Jaffe: Tell. me. about. it.

jkim: last nights ALCS game gave me Game 2 flashbacks from last year’s WS. Crazy lead changes & bringing in the closer in the 8th.

Jay Jaffe: the last two postseasons have had all kinds of stuff like this, in particular. We’ve been very lucky, both as fans, and as media, to have so much to chew on.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: If your frazzled, do what the old ball players did and take some greenies. Perk you right up.

Jay Jaffe: The problem with getting so up is coming down — and it’s scary the extent to which players use(d) alcohol to take the edge off the stimulants they “needed” to play. Not that I don’t crack a beer or two after filing my piece or reaching a stopping point late at night, but I’m running on nothing stronger than coffee.

Andy: Jay.  Thank you for taking time to chat.  You’re always thorough and thoughtful in your responses.  Inquiring Minds (mine) want to know:  Is Bryant-Harper connection strong enough to make CHC the favorites in the offseason?  Or do you think Harper lands somewhere and pulls Bryant with him in a couple years?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks, Andy. I think the Bryant-Harper connection is real enough to make the Cubs major players in the Bryce sweepstakes. Having a buddy who can give it to you straight about the culture inside the clubhouse, when you’ve only ever known one other in the majors, is a big deal.

That said, I’m not entirely sure how Harper fits on the Cubs’ outfield unless you’re either trading Schwarber or Heyward, the latter after eating a whole lot of $ since he ain’t opting out of doodly squat.

Lilith: Given his polling results, do you think Rolen eventually gets into the HoF? When?

Jay Jaffe: We don’t have a precedent for a player polling so low on the first ballot (10.2%) and getting in via the writers within a 10-year window. The lowest by any modern (1966 onward) candidate in his first year who was eventually elected by the writers was Duke Snider, 17.0%, and he needed 11 years. It’s an uphill haul for Scotty, and he may need the Today’s Game Committee or whatever they’re calling it 10 years from now.

I’m optimistic that he’ll get in eventually, perhaps overly so.

Lou: Austin Barnes was not good in the regular season but is probably the Dodgers postseason starting catcher now.  Are we better off judging a player by their whole career and projections in the postseason than the WAR from the preceding regular season?

Jay Jaffe: It’s always tough to say. Given the feedback available, players are so much more malleable than ever — you can convince a guy based upon statistical and video evidence that he needs to change his swing path or the grip on his pitch and suddenly he’s like a whole new player!

I do think that there’s a lot we don’t know. For one, Barnes’ 2018 season is kind of a small sample size (238 PA), and over that amount of time, there’s a wide range of performance; on that note, yes, I’d say go on more than one year of data. Beyond that, was there an injury in there? Have the Dodgers spotted matchups they like particularly for him against some pitchers? It’s worth a closer look.

Drew: I believe it was Jeff in a previous chat who mentioned he was thinking of some way fill the Indians holes in the OF and bullpen.  He initially said the Padres would be a good fit (Reyes, Jankowski, Yates).  What about Clevinger for Reyes, Jankowski, Yates, and either Baez, Morejon, or Espinoza?

Jay Jaffe: Indians ain’t trading Clevinger.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You know that scene in Office Space where Ron Livingston talks to Deidrich Bader about his coworker saying, “Sounds like someone’s got a case of the Mondays” and Bader says, “Hell no…he’d get his ass kicked!” Well, I have a coworker who says, “Happy Friday, Jr.!” on Thursdays and I feel like I need to talk to Bader.

Jay Jaffe: Office Space is the gift that keeps on giving, and Bader’s character doubly so. I don’t think you need either the actor or the character’s permission to give your coworker an appropriate punishment for his comments. I’n not advocating violence — maybe a good prank.

Dave: What’s the best and/or most realistic way for the Yankees to get out of the Stanton contract?

Jay Jaffe: By watching him hit several hundred dingers over the remainder of it. I don’t think they’re sitting around worrying about it right now.

Mike: Jay, just for interest’s sake can you tell us about a non-baseball related event that meant something to you in the past week?  Even if it’s just a life changing sandwich experience.  Cheers.

Jay Jaffe: In the past week? Well, last week I told you about going to see The Scientists, a reunited Australian post-punk band, on the night before, when there was no baseball. On Saturday, I kind of blew off the ALCS opener to go see Mudhoney — one of my all-time favorite bands, and one I’ve seen a handful of times dating back to 1990 or ’91 (twice in one week a few years ago). Happy to report that they still kick ass, not that I had any doubt. There’s just something about seeing a live, kick-ass band that scrubs my brain of stress and fatigue in all of the right ways, and I need to remind myself to do that once in awhil. Even if, in this case, the venue (The Warsaw, a Polish club in Williamsburg) had no wifi I could access.

Jay Jaffe: I’

Jay Jaffe: Given my long-term affinity for the Dodgers, I’ve pretty much had to use the ALCS as my time to either parent, write or just be, while focusing on the NLCS. Didn’t plan for that to be the case but here we are, and on that note, here’s my take on the Miley Gambit https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-gambit-versus-the-ace/

The Old Buccaneer: Am I the only one who thinks Walker Buehler looks like the love child of Kevin Brown and Tim Lincecum on the mound? His set-up, especially, reminds me a ton of Brown. Maybe just a little less ornery.

Jay Jaffe: Not bad. He’s just 24 and so lacks Brown’s grizzled seen-some-shit look and scowl. He’s also got a few inches on Timmy.

Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: Are Andy Pettitte’s Hall of Fame chances the least impacted by his steroids history given his admission and that he was generally well-liked by sports writers?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I dunno. I honestly don’t think he’s got a strong chance of election given that he’s a lesser candidate than Mussina, Schilling and Halladay. And has the Mitchell Report on his resumé, one way or another.

Fans: How do we stop fans from interfering with important playoff games?

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I think every ballpark should have a bit of a buffer between the fans and the fence. This should have been a priority after Jeffrey Maier as the whole wave of Selig-era stadium building unfolded.

Kristen: Has Chris Bosio been blackballed after the DET incident?  TEX could use a teacher-style pitching coach and new AGM Rehman is familiar with Bosio successfully developing ex-Ranger prospects like Hendricks, Strop, Edwards, and Grimm in CHIC.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not inside enough to know whether Bosio is being blackballed but given that the offseason has only just begun, I don’t think we can even guess whether that’s true. There are a lot of jobs, major and minor league, to be filled.

That said, if I were a GM, I’m not so sure I’d be considering him for a position right now. Has he done anything to earn a shot at redemption? Like, undergone counseling? Done anything publicly but maintain his innocence? If he has, I haven’t seen it, not that it’s very high on my priority list to look.

Maximum Munchies: Boston beating the Astros in the ALCS, even as the 1-seed, has got to be considered an upset

Jay Jaffe: Dethroning the defending champions is always a big deal even if they’re not the powerhouse of yesteryear. That said, no 108-win team with a $230-millionish payroll ever gets to call themselves the underdog, it’s right there on page 1 of the unwritten rules.

stever20: I loved Dave Roberts decision to bat Kershaw in the 7th yesterday up 3-1, even with taking him out in the 8th.  Saved a PH in Dozier or Kemp that could have been huge had the game stayed close.  Your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Having taken Roberts to task for NOT hitting for Buehler in Game 3, I felt I needed to revisit the decisions, and wrote about them in today’s piece. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-gambit-versus-the-ace/

I leaned towards pinch-hitting, and Roberts even was before Barnes’ game-tying single. That said, I understand why Roberts would be committed to his superstar, and he had settled down. To me, the problem is that you don’t know whether his next inning is a 10-pitch breeze or a 30-pitch slog. Roberts gambled and won.

Jay Jaffe: As to the specifics of him hitting, I can see not burning a pinch-hitter when you’re leading and have been going through bench pieces like crazy, and Kershaw is capable of some pretty dogged at-bats.

Phil: Kershaw seemed to throw more and more of his breaking stuff as the game went on, and it seemed to work well. Is that the Kershaw you think we see going forward – one who pitches “backwards” so to speak, and only throws his fastball 20-30% of the time?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, unless after a winter of rest and recuperation his fastball regains a couple clicks. Somewhere in the broadcast, over the noise of my daughter playing with some infernal V-Tech-chipped torture device from hell, I heard Smoltz (?) say something to the effect that Kershaw believes he can restore some velocity. I’d like to know more, and wonder if he’s deliberately holding back a bit.

Jonny: According to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP, Brian McCann is already at 60, higher than Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Russell Martin, and even Ivan Rodriguez. Do you think McCann has any chance at the Hall of Fame? Do/should voters look at framing?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think McCann has a strong shot, but I do think the voters will have to look closely at framing data when the time comes. I examined the issue and showed the rankings of McCann, Martin and the others you mention in connection to a piece on Yadier Molina in July https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yadier-molinas-climb-towards-coopersto…

Sloth: Were Joey Votto’s hall chances hurt in a significant by a somewhat down year?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think so. He’s got the WAR7 peak stuff and the MVP and All-Star stuff, what he needs is bulk — most notably 2,000 hits (he’s at 1,769) and 300 homers (269). Plenty of time for both, and I think he’ll be fine even as he declines a bit.

Raymond: According to the Baseball Gauge, the Red Sox best 3 players by championship WPA have been Bradley, Barnes and Brasier. Thats one outfielder that everyone wanted to bench in mid-may, one reliever with a 4.52 BB/9, and one reliever who wasnt in the majors until July.

Jay Jaffe: Baseball never fails to baseball. That’s why we keep coming back, even when it burns us — if the outcomes were so obvious, we’d never give a rat’s ass about this crazy sport played by grown men in pajamas.

Matchups: At what point does it become possible a batter really has a pitcher’s number (or vice versa)? Like, it’s still only been like 20 PAs but does it really seem Sanchez owns a Price, or is Sanchez just good? Or when Manny or Edgar hit well against Rivera? You’re never going to get a full season sample’s worth, so is it just meaningless?

Jay Jaffe: You’re never going to get complete statistical validity in a head-to-head sample. If you’ve got an extreme performance even if it’s over half a dozen PA, it’s worth exploring the when and why. Re: Edgar vs. Mo, the former was 5-for-6 vs. the latter when he was a rookie with an ERA above 5.00, facing him multiple times in the game as a starter or reliever, so I’d eye that part with skepticism.

But I think one can make a reasonably informed decision upon investigation. 3-for-6 or 5-for-8 doesn’t tell you much on its own. but if it’s 3-for-6 against a guy who’s similar to other guys he beats up on (say, righties who rely upon sliders), then you may have something worth using.

Matt: Man I know a number of dominos would have to fall but Schwarber would look great in Rockies purple.

Jay Jaffe: Dear Baby Commissioner Jesus Please Make This Happen.

Six Ten: What is up with Kimbrel? Part of the answer is the Astros and Yankees are good, but that doesn’t seem like the whole answer.

Jay Jaffe: Have to wonder if a decline phase has begun. Likewise with Jansen. They can’t all be Mariano Rivera.

Rick: I love how last season, all we heard was the Yankees were a new dynasty that was going to win the next 10 WS because they added Stanton. Now a year later, they’re wanting out from underneath the contract. Nice

Jay Jaffe: Do they? or is it just talk radio idiots and irate fans? I haven’t seen anything to suggest the team really believes it has a problem with its commitment to Stanton.

Robby: Can the Padres get Grienke for Myers? Diamondbacks save a lot of $, Pads spend a little more but get rid of a contract as well. Myers has hit really well in Arizona and he can play 1B if they move on from Goldschmitt or corner OF.

Jay Jaffe: Offhand it seems like a trade that might work but probably not save as much money as you’d think initially without the balancing of other talent as part of the deal. Greinke does have a 15-team no-trade clause and while I can say I’d welcome retiring to San Diego some day, he may want a more immediately competitive situation and/or eye their organization with some wariness given the seemingly endless cycle of building and rebuilding.

Beasy Bee: Hey Jay, I appreciate your takes.  They usually make me think more deeply about all the going-ons.  So what did you see: HR, interference, something else?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t see the whole thing unfold in real time. I thought Jeff Sullivan’s dissection https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fan-interference-call-was-probably… was about as good as you’l find (no surprise given his talents), and he convinced me that while there was ultimately no clarity, the visual evidence pointed towards the interference call.

Still, it’s a shame that such a play could have affected the outcome of a playoff game. I can’t blame the Astros and their fans for feeling they got screwed, and had the call gone the other way, likewise for the Red Sox. I also would have preferred that the umpire central to the call was somebody besides Joe West given his penchant for controversy, but here we are.

Finn: Should the Astros have started Verlander on short rest and then used Morton/committee against the riff-raff Boston will use today?

Jay Jaffe: When you see how hard even the best pitchers in the postseason have to grind to get through 5 innings— JV included — you understand why going on short rest is such a big ask. I’m at the point where I don’t think I’d go that route unless it’s the deciding game of a series.

Six Ten: The Warsaw is one of the best venues I’ve ever been to. Zywiec in cans and pierogi on styrofoam plates while watching world class bands play in what looks like a small 1950s high school gym.

Jay Jaffe: I hadn’t been to the Warsaw since seeing the New Pornographers there in..  2002, maybe? Back when all of Brooklyn was terra incognita and we didn’t even have Google on our phones. So I had only the vaguest of memories of the place. I did drink a couple cans of Zywiec and was pleasantly surprised that it didn’t suck, but I missed out on the pierogis because I’d just eaten dinner when I got there in time for the final song of the opener (Pissed Jeans).

Curious Fellow: Could there be a stat such as K+/- to differentiate strikeout numbers between eras?

Jay Jaffe: I have written about the need for K+ and proposed it to multiple site. It’s in the works  here behind the scenes, just a matter of priorities.

Roger: Will Yasmany Grandal be a good buy-low candidate this off-season?  His post-season performance, after all, likely isn’t as predictive as his otherwise very solid year.

Jay Jaffe: Among the ideas in my queue is a piece on Grandal. I don’t know that his postseason has changed my mind about what I’ve said in this space in weeks past regarding him vs. Wilson Ramos, but it’s been reported that unnamed execs feel he’s cost himself money with his rough series.

Frank: SB Nation had an article titled “The Brewers Used a Fake Starter and the Dodgers Used a Hall of Fame Starter.” So true and do you think this describes the difference between the two rosters?

Jay Jaffe: If Kershaw were Kershaw in the postseason all the time, and if the Brewers were throwing just some journeyman out there in place of Miley, then maybe that’s an apt summation, but there was plenty of logic and chutzpah behind Counsell’s move, and it actually worked pretty well until he stuck with Woodruff for the third time through.

Cue Levon Helm, narrator: “There was a demon that lived in the air. They said whoever challenged him would get hit hard the third time through the order…”

Beyond the salaries and name recognition, the gap between these two teams is actually very narrow, and both managers are managing their asses off in some creative ways. I love it.

Tom: Will the Machado incident affect his free-agent stock?  I personally did not know until yesterday that he was regarded as a dirty player, so it seems like some teams might be less inclined to sign him now.  Or would teams doing their due diligence have uncovered his reputation regardless?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it will have much impact except at the margins, where a team that might have been a longshot to sign him opts not to pursue as a matter of PR. He’s still going to get paid handsomely because the talent is real.

Tuna: I think COunsel’s management has cost the Brewers dearly in this series. Especially the decision to use Hader with a 4 run lead (but not finish the game)… and the decision to empty the bench against Kenley Jansen instead of saving a pinch hitter for later

Jay Jaffe: The Hader move seems to me like a gaffe given their wariness of using him even on back-to-back days, but I think that’s an exception to an otherwise outstanding job. It’s a lot easier to forgive him for sticking too long with Woodruff knowing how gassed the bullpen was (and that he had apparently decided not to use Hader). As for emptying the bench against Jansen, I didn’t have a problem with it. If you don’t succeed at that point, you’re at risk of losing in a walk-off anyway, might as well get the big bats out and go strength against strength instead of giving him an easy road through a two-inning stint.

Scott: How funny is it to see Sandy Leon pinch run?

Jay Jaffe: pretty damn funny

Dusty: Thoughts on Twins prospect Wander Javier? Whats his upside?

Jay Jaffe: My thought is ask the right person for this, either Kiley or Eric.

Glib Torres: If this WS ends up Boston v. LAD, does that just crush the dreams of small payroll teams?

Jay Jaffe: Given what the Brewers have already done, and how they’re situated for more in the next few years? That the Rockies and A’s made the postseason?

Beasy Bee: Jay, you have any life coach in you?  I’m not so good at actively making friends, but excel in passively doing it.  By that I mean that I’m on the shy side so tend to grow relationships with more outgoing types who show interest in and interact with me.  I want to change that and am finding it difficult.  My old go-to’s of being friendly, a good active listener, and eye contact just don’t take me out of my comfort zone enough.  Any tips on how to make it clear that you like someone and are down to spend more time with them?

Jay Jaffe: Dunno that I’m a great life coach but having gone through this a bit in the midst of my own divorce and my friends having families on a timeline ahead of me, I’ve found that the key to making friends outside of your circle is common interests. Let’s go get a beer/watch a ballgame/see a band is a great approach. Also, for whatever the multitude of ills that social media has caused us, you can find folks with similar interests a lot more easily.

Dystopian Future: Correct me if I’m wrong, but could it be that relievers aren’t as good in the postseason because teams actually pay far more attention to them in the playoffs than in a three-game set? Do more video work, study them, etc.

Jay Jaffe: that and repeated exposure in a short timeframe. I don’t have the data skillz to study this myself but somebody else must.

My god: Stanton is fine. He was also apparently injured for much of the second half.

Jay Jaffe: Yes. played through a hamstring thing at a time that the lineup around him was crumbling. That meant more to the team’s evaluation of him than a lukewarm ALDS performance, I can promise you.

Tim: Re: Schwarber: the idea of an ex-catcher patrolling the expansive Coors outfield raises my hackles, but Schwarber’s defensive numbers have actually been quite solid.  Do you have an opinion on his defense?  Does he belong in the AL as a DH, as many fans seem to think?

Jay Jaffe: I used to make jokes about it (see here by Rian Watt, who’s now a contributor here http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/10/29/circling-…) but the numbers and my own eyes tell me he’s improved, and good for him.

Also we have yet another data point regarding a “he’s still a catcher” deke. Any time a team has to publicly maintain that, the guy’s done there for all intents and purposes (see Jesus Montero and Pete O’Brien, for example).

Irregardless: We knew a Yelich regression was incoming, but dang.

Jay Jaffe: Some of his plate appearances yesterday were pretty terrible, 1 and 2 pitches long. I get being aggressive, rather than passive, but dang, as you say.

Glib Torres: Does Schilling’s ideological thuggery delay his entry into the Hall?  On merit he’s an easy choice, I’d think, but, yuck, man.

Jay Jaffe: I think he continues to do damage to his chances with his ongoing, lunatic diatribes, and I’ve reached the point of total indifference as to his fate. If you want to vote for him, I’ve got plenty of data that supports the choice, but if you’ve decided that he’s not worthy of the honor, or, uh, the 11th-best candidate that year, hey, that’s fine.

Glib Torres: Thoughts on Jose Reyes being the Mets Marvin Miller Award nominee? What the hell, Mets?

Jay Jaffe: An abomination, but one that has less to do with the Mets — he was first on the team from among players around the league — than the culture within the game. If I’m the Miller family, I’m threatening to take Marvin’s name off the award if Reyes isn’t disqualified. Shery Ring had a good look at just how unqualified he was with regards to any off-field contributions: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-reyes-has-been-honored-for-his-of…

Jay Jaffe: And with that, I’ve reached my pitch count and emptied the tank if not the queue. Thanks for stopping by today!