Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/25/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I’m back from my Salt Lake City ski trip with my daughter (now a beginning intermediate skier!).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I published a roundup of the top position players remaining on the free agent market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-…

Jay Jaffe: The companion piece, on pitchers, is in the editorial pipeline as we chat and should go live soon.

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of my daughter, she spotted a new species of squirrel in our backyard this morning: the Brooklyn Pizza Squirrel https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liyvdf5ux22l

Jay Jaffe: Pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er…

Gaijin: Well, since you mentioned it, are there any players you’re watching for in the NPB this year? Obviously Murakami, any others?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, my tag line [“Baseball games are on television, and Opening Day (Japan) is three weeks away!”] referred to the fact that the first game of MLB’s Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs is three weeks away. I don’t follow NPB closely. Is there even an easy way to get broadcasts here in the US? Please enlighten if you know.

Tim: How seriously are we taking the idea that people are interested in making Lance Lynn a closer?

Jay Jaffe: An interesting point I noted in my forthcoming roundup. Lynn does have late-inning experience from his early days with the Cardinals, and based on what he told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal last month, it sounds as though he’s amenable to such a move, but… I guess we’ll have to wait and see if any of the teams who called about him earlier in the winter wants to circle back. My guess is that they’re second-division teams looking to flip a closer in July, which may not be the most appealing option for some players if they don’t want to uproot their families.

Guest: Does trey Sweeney have the talent of an every day guy or is he just the beneficiary of playing on a team with Javier Baez?

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen graded Sweeney as a 45 FV prospect, which is to say a fringe-average one, in last year’s late-season update, and he missed the Top 100 this year so it’s safe to say that grade hasn’t changed. That doesn’t mean Eric is 100% correct or that Sweeney hasn’t made adjustments that raise his ceiling a bit. But right now he’s the likely starter because of Baez’s poor play and his hip injury.

Phil: I was looking back at position players who have made the HOF ballot with fewer than 20 WAR, partly because I would love to see Jose Iglesias on it just because he’s had such a fascinating career. It seems like sort of a random selection–one-tool, high-peak guys like Ryan Howard aren’t surprising (and Howard was famous), but then Adam Dunn made it, maybe more as a stathead favorite. Juan Pierre is an interesting player but not exactly good or famous. Rick Ankiel made the ballot, the original two-way guy but also kind of not that good. Is there any rhyme or reason to the cutoff for the bottom end? Does it just depend on how many guys of that caliber are eligible in a given year?

Jay Jaffe: The low-end guys who tend to make the ballots usually have one major accomplishment to their names. Howard was an MVP, Pierre led the league in steals three times and in hits twice. Dunn never won a home run title but finished second three times, Ankiel only finsihed second in the Rookie of the Year voting but obviously had a distinctive career. Carlos Gonzalez (on this year’s ballot) won a batting title. Etc.

Jay Jaffe: All of which is to say that WAR is a pretty imperfect estimator for who makes or misses the cut

Jay Jaffe: (lunch — a poke bowl — just arrived so bear with me for a few here as I stuff my craw)

Jim: Are the Orioles really going into the season without getting a frontline starter?

Jay Jaffe: It sure looks that way. So much for all of the excitement of having a rich new owner.

Jay Jaffe: The Orioles rank 23rd in our rotation depth charts (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP), which is pretty unimpressive for a team with playoff aspirations. That said, maybe there’s a Grayson Rodriguez breakout coming, or Tomoyuki Sugano — a guy who doesn’t miss many bats — outperforms his projection signifcantly. Still, I think O’s fans have a right to be kinda pissed over the way things played out this winter.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Remember when the Internet was still fun? What website or community do you miss most from the good ol’ days, and how have you tried to fill that void?

Jay Jaffe: I miss the Chugchanga indie rock mailing list, and living in the East Village of New York City, where there were handful of great little clubs (CBGB, Brownie’s, Mercury Lounge, etc) that might be putting on great shows on any given night of the week.

Jay Jaffe: and that doesn’t count larger venues not too far away, like Irving Plaza or Tramps. I might have gone to see 2-3 shows and half a dozen bands or more. Now I’ve replaced all that with, uh, parenting and attending/covering baseball

Jay Jaffe: I do miss those days though

Jay Jaffe: OK, here’s the free agent pitchers roundup: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-ii-top-remaining…

Guest: Is there any way to view BaseRuns standings for previous years? 2024 is nice to see but it’ll go away soon, and I can’t seem to find any way to compare to a team’s results from 2023 and beyond

Jay Jaffe: Alas, I don’t think we archive those the way we do Playoff Odds. Not really sure why, tbh.

Jed Hoyer: What’s a realistic outlook for PCA after this season if the strikeout rate drops to a point where he’s turning those into walks? Is a ceiling of Corbin Carroll out of reach?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not the prospect guy but even just eyballing Eric’s prospect grades I’d say a Carroll-like ceiling is out of reach. Crow doesn’t have Carroll’s power (35 present/50 future for game vs. Carroll’s 55/60), hit tool (30/40 vs. 55/70), or speed (60/60 vs 80/80). That’s not to say he can’t be a very good player, possibly an All-Star in center, but we’re talking about a player who ranks 20th on a prospect list as a 55 overall versus one who ranked 2nd as a 65. that’s a very big gap

Bullock: Is Jose Iglesias being unsigned a result of him spending most of the offseason thinking he could get a starting job somewhere?

Jay Jaffe: I doubt it’s that so much as it’s wanting to come back to the Mets, where he led the league in vibes, or at least another top contender instead of settling for a utility job in Miami, Denver, or Sacramento.

Gaijin: Re: NPB I’ve only found the games in the US through what appears to be legal Chinese livestreaming sites illegally rebroadcasting them, which is probably not what people are usually looking for. Would be cool if someone decided to pick the rights up, it’s not like they’re showing anything else at 2am. Alternatively I know the NBL (Aussie basketball) and NWHL (women’s hockey) would stream games on Twitch outside of their home markets, that’s another idea that would be fun for more leagues to try.

Jay Jaffe: interesting, thanks for the info!

Will in Vero: If the Dodgers try to move Chris Taylor in a trade, what’s the bigger hurdle: Few suitors for Taylor’s talents, or animosity against helping the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: Aside from the downturn in performance, it’s money, money, and money, specifically how much of his remaining $17 million ($13 million salary, $4 million buyout) the Dodgers are willing to absorb.

Bullock: Does Crochet’s performance last year teach us that we should be looser about innings limits, or did he and White Sox just get lucky for a season?

Jay Jaffe: I wish I knew, because I’d make a lot of money in this industry. Hard and fast rules about innings jumps — such as the so-called Verducci Effet — have fallen by the wayside now that teams have so much granular data in terms of pitches and mechanics. That said, the White Sox are notoriously behind the times on the analytics front; they may as well be banging rocks together. We might want to wait to see how well Crochet fares in terms of performance and availability before we declare the White Sox as anything but lucky here.

TomBruno23: Is Nolan Arenado a future Hall of Famer? Work still to do?

Jay Jaffe: I think so, yes. His career/peak/JAWS line is 56.7/44.3/50.5, where the average HOF 3B is at 68.9/43.4/56.1, so he’s already above the peak standard (13th all-time, in fact) and 18th in JAWS. He already scores 122 on the HOF Monitor thanks to his 10 Gold Gloves and eight All-Star selections; 130 is a virtual cinch, and I think he’ll get pretty close to that by the time he reaches 2,000 hits (he’s at 1,826).

Hot Whale: Why are people speculating that Chris Martin will be able to close for the Rangers?  Isn’t this the same guy who has needed a couple of mental re-sets along the way while working in late relief?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not just spitballing in that the team seems to have thrown his name out there as a possibility in the absence of a name brand closer, and Martin is aware of it (https://www.mlb.com/rangers/news/chris-martin-has-potential-to-be-rang…) and open to it.

Phil: I think all Fangraphs readers are savvy enough to know to largely ignore Spring Training stats, but is there any stat that might be predictive or be a red flag or a green flag for players or teams?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t look at any of them, really. I don’t know if the study has been updated but it used to be that a big spike in spring slugging percentage correlated with a power boost. I’d keep an eye on big velocity changes in either direction for pitchers, though I’d bear in mind that guys do tend to ramp up as the spring goes on (February ain’t the time to care), and while working in shorter bursts might air it out a bit more.

War2d2: Hi Jay! I’m leaving for Scottsdale in a week, and seeing five games (some combo of Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Guardos, Rangers). Anyone in particular I should keep an eye out for? I’m looking forward to seeing Matt Shaw. It was fun seeing Langford last year, though obviously that didn’t turn out how people hoped it would. Anyone else come to mind? Thanks for all you do!

Jay Jaffe: Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the highest-ranked prospects you’re likely to see playing regularly for those teams. Dunno if the Rangers’ Sebastian Walcott (no. 4 on our list) is in major league camp as he’s only grazed Double-A, but obviously, he’s another one if you can find him. Kumar Rocker should be around, and I bet it’s still worth seeing Langford and Carter while you’re at it.

Phil: True or False: Mookie Betts finishes the 2025 season as a shortstop

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he moves later in the season to accommodate another acquisition or Edman being a better fit there.

Mr. Burrito: What’s going to happen to Andy Pages? I would argue he’s potentially better this year than Conforto and absolutely better than Taylor, but I might be high. The bigger question is if Pages is part of a mini-generation of prospects (Rushing, Frasso, Freeland) who might stall out because of the Dodgers’ gloriously overstuffed roster. Am I wrong to fret?

Jay Jaffe: On that subject, the thing to remember about the Dodgers is that there are all kind of moving parts, and while today their preferred outfield alignment is Conforto-Edman-Teoscar, Conforto is injury-prone and Pages can play center, so a Teoscar-Pages-Betts alignment with Edman at SS isn’t out of the question

Tim: Who would you have bat leadoff for the softball team that is the Phillies?

Jay Jaffe: If i were making out the lineup I’d probably flip their usual top two to have Trea Turner leading off and Kyle Schwarber batting second.

Guest: Is the ABS system going to depress catcher value even more moving forward? They’re already underrepresented in the HOF (I think, I haven’t done the math), but it SEEMED like voters were starting to come around to appreciate fielding and esp pitch framing as part of catcher value

Jay Jaffe: Catchers are underrepresented in the Hall but framing *raises* their value, and the ABS challenge system that’s on the way isn’t going to cut into it the way an all-robo system would.

Jim: Given the O’s lack of moves to replace Burnes, how do you think things stand in the AL East? Is it a Yankees/Red Sox contest, or are the O’s still neck and neck with them?

Jay Jaffe: Right now the division looks pretty packed, with a 6-win spread from top to bottom in our Playoff Odds standings, with the Yankees at 87.2 wins the Red Sox at 84.6, the Orioles at 83.1, the Jays at 81.8 and Rays at 81.2. I like the offseasons of the Yankees and Red Sox much more than what the other have (and mostly haven’t) done so I wouldn’t be surprised if things shake out that way, but i don’t think it will take a lot for those standings to get shaken up.

Ben: How many more pitcher injuries before someone meets the Padres asking price for Cease?

Jay Jaffe: 73

Jay Jaffe: (I kid. I have no idea!)

Jim: Chris Taylor also has an assignment bonus if traded. Like $2M.

Jay Jaffe: Noted, thanks.

Matt VW: I know this isn’t your usual beat, but any thoughts on what the ESPN MLB opt-out portends about the future availability of the sport?

Jay Jaffe: Joe Sheehan had an excellent newsletter piece yesterday. You can see a couple of fragments here https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liwqrrulvs24 but you have to subscribe to see the whole thing (well worth it IMO).

While there are other alternatives for MLB to stream/air games via Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I suspect that the two sides will probably find a smaller deal that keeps them working together in some capacity. I do think, as noted in the clip that I posted, that this does not bode well for the owners’ quest to expand the playoffs, because ESPN doesn’t seem so interested in the added inventory

TomBruno23: What can you tell us St. Louis Cardinals diehard fans, The BFIB, about why we should tune in to the 2025 season?

Jay Jaffe: “Remember that perennial playoff contender you used to watch? It could be awhile before you see them again. In the meantime, try not to throw any large objects at your screen every time John Mozeliak or Oli Marmol shows up. They’ll be be gone soon enough. “

Didace: “ABS challenge system that’s on the way isn’t going to cut into it the way an all-robo system would.”  Once the challenge system is put in place, it will be at most five years before it will be all-robo-all-the-time.

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. Everybody HATED its implementation in Triple-A, and the sport is very attached to the human element.

The Old Professor: Is Sandy Alcantra’s new ( rediscovered) 98 mph velocity this spring enough to move the needle on his health and durability status for this year?

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad to see he’s throwing 98 and take that to mean that he’s feeling good now that he’s almost 17 months removed from surgery but let’s remember that high velo at high volume is exactly why he was always a risk to wind up getting Tommy John surgery. There will be potholes along the way when it comes to his recovery, and I wouldn’t expect to see him throw 200 innings again unless he already has another operating table waiting for him.

Ham Fighter: How much would trading for Ryan McMahon or Josh Smith move the needle on Milwaukee’s infield situation?

Jay Jaffe: Either would probably be an upgrade over Oliver Dunn at third base, but not a game-changer. Still, the Brewers are at the point where every marginal win is particularly valuable so any kind of upgrade would be welcome

Guest: Why wouldn’t an ABS system affect catcher framing value too much moving forward? I know the advanced stats on framing have helped current catching HOF candidates…I was just thinking moving forward…

Jay Jaffe: the system that’s being tested this spring allows for only two challenges per game, that out of I don’t know how many dozen borderline pitches per game that could shift from balls to strikes or vice versa. It’s volume that gives framing so much value.

David Forst: What could I get from the Mets for some of my excess of uninjured starting pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: Probably Juan Soto AND Ronny Mauricio.

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, even with club control years remaining, I don’t think guys like JP Sears or Joey Estes (both mentioned via another question) are going to bring back major league-ready talent or a top prospect. I know there’s not a ton to root for in Oakland right now, but would the additions of a 45 FV and 40 FV prospect who are both 2 years away from the majors be that exciting?

Vlad Guerrero Jr: If you were a GM, what would be the max contract you’d be willing to give to  Guerrero? A lot of people clowned on the Blue Jays’ $340m offer but that seems about right to me, maybe a bit high even. I guess it depends on how well he does in 2025.

Jay Jaffe: Given that Vladito went 3 years between exceptional seasons, is a large adult son righty-swinging first baseman with lousy defensive metrics, and looks like a DH in the making, I wouldn’t even go to $300 million for a long-term deal unless he more or less replicates his 2024 season this year. I think Dan’s piece here is probably right up your alley https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

War2d2: Not doubting anything you said about PCA vs. Carroll overall, but the speed thing stuck out for me. Savant has PCA as a 99th percentile sprint speed and 98th percentile in base running value, vs. 96/100 for Carroll. The 60 grade on PCA’s running seems way, way too low to me.

Jay Jaffe: That’s a fair critique.

Dan: When people talk about a fringe player being over exposed is that because by playing less their rate stats are better or is it just that 50 inning of below average play is better than 100 innings of below average play? Or maybe they really just mean the player deserves a platoon partner.

Jay Jaffe: A lot of times it has to do with platooning. A guy may be much more playable — average or better — against opposite-hand pitching but weak against same-side, and that will drag his performance down.

Joséphine: Hi, Jay – thank you for doing this! What do you think are the next steps for the Phillies? They have arguably the best rotation in the league, but their core is aging and has come short in big moments (aside from Harper). Painter seems like a solid prospect, but I’m not sure about any of their position players.

Jay Jaffe: Honestly I think one of the biggest upgrades they could do to the current core would be to treat Castellanos as a sunk cost and get a better right fielder. Three years in, he’s netted 1.4 WAR, and while he’s had some great and timely moments, he’s just not very good. I’m not wild about Kepler, but with Kyle Schwarber coming off the books after his season and Kyle Tucker hitting free agency, there’s a nice potential upgrade option down the road.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s all I have time for today. Thanks so much for stopping by! We’ll (try to) do this again next week.