Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/10/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Got a late start in creating this chat so I’m going to give it a few minutes to fill the queue. In the meantime, here’s my freshly-published piece on Jesús Luzardo’s extension  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philly-ing-up-luzardo-inks-a-five-year-ext…

Jay Jaffe: and if you missed it, here’s Friday’s look at the Mets’ new-look outfield picture https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-search-for-the-right-choices-in-t…

Jay Jaffe: Re: Luzardo, he was one of seven extension candidates highlighted by Dan Szymborski just yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2026-edition/

Jay Jaffe: I wish we had a World Baseball Classic game on right now as backdrop — there were so many games yesterday I couldn’t focus on and yet nothing tonight until 7. Blergh

Mike: Does the success of he WBC make the olympics more or less likely for mlb players?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe slightly more likely? Honestly, I don’t see much to get excited about. If you think MLB as a corporate organization is awful, I invite you to compare it to the IOC, which is exponentially worse (as is FIFA). The 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles will feature just a six-team tournament, with two fields of three that will play a pair of pool games. From there, two teams will advance directly to the semis and the other four will play off to determine two more semifinalists. That seems decidedly half-assed, and we haven’t even gotten into the possibility of the political landscape costing the participation of some countries

Jay Jaffe: All of this info comes via Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, who wrote yesterday about why the WBC succeeds where the Olympics fail. It’s not hard to see that the IOC is almost totally indifferent to the sport https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-the-world-baseball-classic…

Thank you: Is Roman Anthony nursing any injury? He looked like an old Babe Ruth rounding the bases, getting thrown out at home last night. He has above average sprint speed on BaseballSavant; but, that did not look like above average.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t heard that he is, but he might have some nagging issue he doesn’t want to exacerbate with less than three weeks to go before spring training.

Big Buckston: Do you think the Phillies or the Braves look to trade for outfield help given the recent PED busts? Or do they just try to use in-house or waiver wire options? Both teams probably expect to be contenders in the NL East so trades would make sense to me

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about the Profar and Rojas suspensions last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/doubling-down-jurickson-profar-draws-a-sec…. The latter still isn’t official as his appeal is still proceeding.

I think it’s important to remember that this is rarely the time of year for impact trades. Teams that deal will do so driven primarily by roster space considerations — trying to get something for guys who are out of options and can’t be sent down, or to do right by guys on minor league deals who don’t fit their plans. I imagine both teams will add some help before Opening Day, but — spoiler alert — it’s not like they’ll suddenly shake loose a three-win player.

It’s worth pointing out that the Braves planned to DH Profar, whose fielding is almost Castellanos-level bad, and will probably be open to any kind of hitter they can slot into place who would represent an upgrade on Dominic Smith.

Jay Jaffe: Likewise, Rojas was already squeezed to the margins of the Phillies roster

drplantwrench: i think the WBC is a resounding success and wouldnt do the olympics at all personally, but what do you think is the better way to grow the sport internationally? or maybe a different strategy altogether?

Jay Jaffe: I think the WBC does a great job of that through the qualifying process. The Czech team didn’t win a game this time but based on their winning one game in 2023, the sport is growing tremendously in a country that has very little history of supporting it. Likewise, WBC exposure fuels growth in other European and Latin American countries where it has less of a baseball tradition but where it can gain a real foothold given the size — think Brazil, for one.

Jay Jaffe: The thing is that baseball is a tertiary sport in the Olympics and so ill-served by the IOC that you could easily miss it amid all the other competitions. The WBC, on the other hand, was built for the express purpose of showcasing baseball and does so at a time when the rest of the sports calendar is much less crowded.

One BS Thing About ABS: ABS has (in my opinion) made the game better, in that it’s taken wildly terrible umpire decisions out, while obviously helping push an overall improvement in ball/strike calls by humans. But man, I miss the little box on EVERY pitch on my TV broadcast! I don’t understand MLB’s thought process here. How’s it sitting with you?

Jay Jaffe: The idea is that the league doesn’t want teams/players to be able to use real-time broadcast info to influence whether or not to challenge a pitch, which is reasonable given the lengths teams have already gone to use such info for nefarious ends.

So far the lack of the box hasn’t bothered me much, but I think that’s because the vast majority of the baseball I’ve watched with my full attention this spring — the WBC — still has it. The exhibitions don’t, but since I usually only those out of the corner of my eye while working, I don’t really miss them as much. Ask me again later this season and I might miss it more.

tom: baseball or otherwise, what are you most excited for this spring?

Jay Jaffe: Baseball, warm weather to justify hanging out on our newly-rebuilt back deck and grill, a new crop of baseball books and events (including Thomas Gilbert’s Death in the Strike Zone, about James Creighton, which I had the honor or doing a cover blurb, and as noted before Michael Clair’s We Sacrifice Everything for Baseball, about the 2023 Czech WBC team), some personal travel to Cooperstown for a Hot Stove Weekend in two weeks, thrown by pal and former Cooperstown mayor Jeff Katz, an extended family trip to Vienna to see where my paternal grandparents lived… and fled.

Jay Jaffe: I’m also happy that we have not one but two cooking competition shows, as not only has Top Chef returned but Padma Lakshmi has her own cooking competion show, America’s Culinary Cup, on CBS/Paramount+ (I don’t subscribe to Paramount+ so we’ve mashed that TiVo button hard to record the broadcasts).

5 Run Homer: This is probably a better question for the prospect guys, but — if you were starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Jackson Chourio or Konnor Griffin? One has shown flashes but hasn’t quite put it all together, the other is a perhaps generational prospect but has barely sniffed the high minors. I feel like Chourio has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit since his debut

Jay Jaffe: even as the non-prospect guy I’d probably say Griffin, since he’s a plus shortstop who can hit, but I wouldn’t sell Chourio short. The ability to do more than just hold his own at the major league level at ages 20 and 21 is the mark of a special player

Gio-Lite O (insert better pun here): What is the hold up for Giolito signing? On paper, given their current state of rotation woes, he seem perfect for a 1 year prove it pact with the Braves, but they don’t seem interested? Any sense of what’s happening there?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe he just doesn’t want to be a Brave? Maybe his extensive injury history is scaring away teams? I think the most likely explanation is that he wants more money guaranteed — perhaps even via a multiyear deal — and less in the form of incentives. Or maybe he wants to target a West Coast team given that he’s from the LA area? I imagine he’ll find a spot before the end of the month

WBC enjoyer: Do you think WBC performances should at least be noted in hall of fame discussions? Kind of like playoff performances?

Jay Jaffe: I try to mention them but I think they’re more like All-Star appearances rather than playoff appearances. That said, now having historical data on B-Ref, and going forward having Statcast data as well, will make it easier to research this stuff and Remember Some Classic Guys

Tal: Jonah Tong got sent down to AAA today, and i’ve seen some odd stuff with his pitch metrics coming out of camp. The stuff ratings have been…not good, but I’ve heard that there’s something in terms of release point that isn’t measured/accounted for with ST pitch tracking, and that’s what’s hurting him?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen anything with regards to the metrics but if his mechanics are off, it’s much better to get him on the minor league side so he can iron them out. At the moment the Mets have enough healthy arms to round out a six-man rotation, with Christian Scott at the ready in Triple-A as well. Might as well get Tong right for when they need him.

Brewcrewman: Re the WBC discussion. I agree with the WBC serving as the premier showcase for the sport, I think the one major outstanding issue is the limitations on pitchers caused by it being during ST. I mean you have guys like Skubal only making one start and Boyd coughing up a lead but staying in the game because he needs the work.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t imagine anybody is going to be allowed to go any harder in an Olympic setting. At least now if a guy gets hurt he’s got several months of runway to get healthy and still have an impact on the regular season. A guy strains his forearm in the Olympics in August or September and he’s probably cooked for the season.

And since somebody asked about Skubal only throwing 3 innings before leaving the team to return to the tigers, if this is getting you wound up, go eat some grass. The man is under competing pressures from the Tigers and Team USA and has, oh, a few hundred million reasons to focus on preparing for this season in the best way he can.

Jay Jaffe: And Team USA will be fine without him, even if another pitcher is mopping up. If it wasn’t Boyd getting knocked around, it would have been, like, Kershaw (who has yet to appear in a game) doing so

War2D2: Hi Jay! I just wanted to thank you for sharing the Bluesky post about the Czechian electrician’s final appearance in the WBC. The way he took one last look around the stadium before walking off the mound made me tear up. It’s my son’s final year in little league. Whether he continues on to travel ball or juniors, or hangs it up entirely, this will be my final year coaching him on the field, and I’m not handling it well. I don’t know what it is about this game of ours that grips you so tightly that it hurts when it lets you go.

Jay Jaffe: This what War2D2 is referring to https://bsky.app/profile/rodger.bsky.social/post/3mgpjo4bapk2g

Jay Jaffe: just a great moment that will hit you right in the feels.

Jay Jaffe: Given how much we emphasize sports in our society, and how comparatively fleeting the windows of opportunity are for kids to play them at a recreational level, it’s natural for the passage of that opportunity to generate some pretty powerful emotions. My daughter played five “seasons” (spring/fall/spring/fall/spring) of tee-ball and coach-pitch and has been done for three years and I still get a little choked up thinking about it not being something we’ll be able to share again.

BigO: Going to try this one more time. I, for one, am quite pleased that the little box is gone on tv broadcasts. In a funny way, I think it re-introduces the humanity that perhaps the ABS is taking away. And I’d rather have the inconsequential fan judgments in play than the actual umpire calls, that can potentially ruin a game.

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a lot of … misunderstanding of those boxes and of the attempt to force the strike zone into a two-dimensional shape instead of understanding it as a three-dimensional space

Brewcrewman: Do you think that there’s a viable way to hold the WBC in the middle of the season as opposed to during the spring so that the best pitchers can participate without as many restrictions? Seems like the only thing holding the WBC back.

Jay Jaffe: not without shaving two weeks off the regular season schedule

Jay Jaffe: and again, you will never get teams to agree to let pitchers go all-out in a non-MLB competition that takes place in the heat of a pennant race. That’s just the reality of it.

Baseball learner: Do you think Cal Raleigh is really the best catcher in baseball or was last year just a career year? Will Smith has been more consistent offensively over time to my eyes. Roger Maris hit 60 too, but didn’t have a Hall level career or that many great years afterwards

Jay Jaffe: I love me some Will Smith but Raleigh is head and shoulders above him, both as a hitter and as a receiver. In Raleigh’s four full seasons, his worst showing (2022) was 4.2 WAR. Smith, over the same timeframe, has topped that twice, with a high of 4.6. Last year even while setting a personal best with a 153 wRC+, Smith came in at 4.1 WAR (and about -7 framing runs) to Raleigh’s 9.1.

Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position: Why can’t my team hit with runners in scoring position?

Jay Jaffe: Mostly because they hate you for that thing you did that one time.

CubsFan23: What’s you take on Matt Shaw’s usage this year? Will he get enough ABs to be fantasy relevent? I’m in an 18 team roto league and have him for $5. On the fence about keeping him. Seems like we haven’t seen his best yet.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not really much for the fantasy-related questions as it’s been a decade and a half since I played, but I don’t think the Cubs have given up on Shaw; they’re going to find him playing time in the outfield and at second base and DH as well as third. We have him projected for only 252 PA, but I’d take the over on that. It’s on him to hit, though, and he struggled at times last year.

War2D2: My boy has been playing little league for over six years (11 seasons — Covid cost us one), and I’ve coached or managed his teams all but two of those seasons. I fully expect to break down when the last pitch is thrown. As Giamatti said:  “You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.”

Jay Jaffe: Amen

jesus: What about Jhostynxon Garcia

Jay Jaffe: What about him? He looks like he’ll be an up-and-down guy for the Pirates given that he’s got major swing and miss issues and only a modest amount of upper-minors experience.

EccentricATLFan: Just out of curiosity, any idea what Dan’s reaction was when the news of the Luzardo extension broke?

Jay Jaffe: based on his comments in the company Slack, I think he’s pretty happy with the timing of the piece and the fact that he saw the ZiPS-projected value as way too low ($91 million over five years) and suggested it would take a lot more money to get a deal done.

Dan: Who is going to be the first active player to set the record for career WAR without a plate appearance (currently 47.8)

Jay Jaffe: I think it must be Ron Guidry who holds it? 49.3 WAR by our measure, 47.8 by bWAR, zero PA. Maybe Skenes if his arm stays intact?

Mr. Redlegs: Thoughts on the Reds chances in the central without Greene for the first 3+ months of the season? Also, at this point do you just treat Greene like 40 year old Clemens and have him prep every year for 100 innings starting in the summer?

Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty sure we had them running fourth in the division even with a full season of Greene, ahead of only the Cardinals. This obviously doesn’t help, but their starting pitching is still an area of strength; the outfield is their big weakness.

Process46: What do you think the Phillies will do with Alec Bohm this year? Especially with Aiden Miller’s mystery injury.

Jay Jaffe: Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Bohm spends the entire season with the Phillies. Miller having a back issue AND needing to change positions AND having just eight games at Triple-A (and 113 at Double-A) — I can’t see the Phillies rushing him under those circumstances to replace a guy who’s been more or less average at the major league level while offering some of the majors’ most flowing locks.

drplantwrench: what do you think of judging trades “at the time” vs with the benefit of retrospect?

Jay Jaffe: Well, the job is to try to understand both. Why is this happening and  what is the range of reasonable outcomes now, and looking back, what did we learn about what happened?

I think it’s silly to try to do something so subjective as attaching a letter grade to a trade (not that past employers haven’t asked me to do so at times) or declare an instant winner

Nuxie: At the time I thought the yaz signing was for too much and superfluous . When player x get busted for roids is the team notified immediately or is notification held until the appeal process is completed?

Jay Jaffe: teams don’t find out until the league announces the discipline, though as noted in the cases of Profar and Rojas, that timing differs based on whether or not its a first offense. For a first offense, discipline is only announced after the appeals process has played out, but for a second, it’s before the appeal — an additional incentive not to screw up again.

Turkey Sandwich: I have a friend who has a big, round number birthday coming up. Any ideas for baseball-themed gifts? Crowd-sourcing over here. thanks in advance.

Jay Jaffe: One of my favorite gifts, received for my 30th birthday almost half a lifetime ago, was a Mitchell and Ness replica Seattle Pilots #56 (for Jim Bouton) — I think half a dozen people split the cost. A current or retro jersey is a great and substantial gift. Depending on geography, a baseball experience — a road trip, an All-Star or playoff ticket -– is also appropriately weighty. Memorabilia can be a hit so long as it’s been verified as authentic. Folks should feel free to add their own ideas in the comments.

Dan: Yeah Ron Guidry is the current leader. I just figured with the now universal DH surely that record is going to fall to someone currently playing.

Jay Jaffe: yes, but it’s going to take awhile given that we’re only four seasons into the universal DH. Eyeballing the pitching WAR leaderboard since then, Skubal has 3 PA, so he’s out, and it looks like George Kirby (13.7 fWAR) may be the 0-PA leader.

Look At This Sotograph: In ideal WBC would be a month long, and would have all the best (healthy) players, like the soccer World Cup. No insurance issues, no MLB teams keeping their pitchers from playing. Is this possible to achieve?

Jay Jaffe: 0% chance of it ever happening

Jay Jaffe: maybe less

Opifijikl: What tools or pages on FG do you frequent most often? Also, what do you think are some underappreciated or underutilized pieces? Last year Mr. Becker suggested looking at the postseason odds daily late in the year, and that was a fantastic suggestion. Now I’m hungry for more!

Jay Jaffe: You know that FanGraphs Walk-Off feature we do at the end of the year? Mine highlighted how often I check the Playoff Odds — I guess because I’m generally trying to place news of injuries or other transactions in a competitive context (does this help the team towards a playoff spot now? will this cost them a shot at October?)

Jay Jaffe: I think the Statcast stuff we’ve brought over is incredibly useful via our interfaces, like getting things like barrel rates and EVs over a range of time via our game logs or custom leaderboards. I love our pitch-type splits for seeing stuff to help me answer the question of “how is this guy getting more groundballs this year?” or “is that new pitch something he’s getting hitters to chase?”

Jay Jaffe: we’ve just added Statcast Bat Tracking data on player cards, and have very easy access to viewing monthly splits in that context. Honestly, I can barely keep up with all the cool stuff our dev crew keeps adding

Jay Jaffe: ok, my browser is about to crash and my stomach is growling, so I’m calling it. Thanks so much for stopping by!