Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/3/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of March, a month that will feature actual regular season baseball and before that, the World Baseball Classic, which starts at 10 ET tomorrow night (which will be Thursday in Japan)!

Jay Jaffe: Apologies in advance because the first 15 minutes of this chat are probably going to be a bumpy ride as I’ve got a grocery delivery about to arrive and it includes frozen stuff so I can’t just let it sit.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Yankees outfield picture in the wake of the addition of Randal Grichuk https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yankees-add-randal-grichuk-to-fill-a-niche…

Jay Jaffe: Last week, inspired by a couple exchanges in chats from earlier this year, I looked into Jarren Duran’s 2025 season and the state of the Red Sox outfield picture (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fitting-jarren-duran-into-the-red-sox-…), and then hitter month-to-month consistency through the lens of wRC+, a Duran-related tangent (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jarren-duran-jorge-polanco-aaron-judge…)

Jay Jaffe: I’m planning a follow-up on the last of those using Statcast data.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, let’s get started with the questions, mindful of the fact that I may soon have to step away

bringbackpologrounds: Does Skubal’s WBC pitching plan raise an eyebrow? He claims it’s not FA-related, but if he’s so worried about preserving his ramp-up for the season, why is he even on the team?

Jay Jaffe: As I understand it, Skubal’s plan is to make just one start for Team USA, with a 55-pitch limit. I think that sounds like a compromise between the thrill and honor of participating and representing his country, and the realities of the pressure on him as the ace of a contending team. I get that it’s not ideal but I also don’t think it’s a big deal

Jay Jaffe: No player, particularly a pitcher, should have to shoulder a big burden in this context, and if the days he’d be available don’t line up with the WBC schedule, I can’t say I blame him

Steven: A time traveler from the future tells you that Ronald Acuña plays 150-plus games each season the rest of his career. What would you peg his odds of making the Hall of Fame? And what’s his career WAR total?

Jay Jaffe: …and there’s the grocery delivery. Apologies for the delay…

Jay Jaffe: …and we’re back

Jay Jaffe: If Acuña’s playing 150 games a year at a reasonable level of quality i think he’s probably Cooperstown bound. The guy has been worth 5.7 bWAR per 162 games, and even if he were worth, say, 3.0 WAR from here on out, that puts him over 60 WAR assuming he at least gets to his late 30s

Jay Jaffe: While I was running around, this came down: https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/2028880474949492839?s=46&t=g_PT0BXbhsS…

Jay Jaffe: Profar suspended for the 2nd time, which not only leaves a hole in the Braves lineup, it costs the WBC Netherlands team a key player.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll be covering that tomorrow for the site. On the subject of the WBC, check out Kiri Oler’s pool-by-pool series of roster evaluations. Here’s Pool D, including the Netherlands team https://blogs.fangraphs.com/diving-deep-into-world-baseball-classic-po…

Jay Jaffe: Also on the subject of the WBC, Davy Andrews has a thing on teammates facing off — we won’t get Ohtani vs. Trout but here’s what could happen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/teammate-connections-during-world-baseball…

Jay Jaffe: And Michael Bauman has some ideas about young players who could break out during the WBC (no, not in terms of teen acne) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/woo-joo-jeong-is-skating-the-river/

Jay Jaffe: Think Harry Ford for Great Britain in 2023 — a prospect who puts himself on the map because he’s competing against higher-level talent.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and speaking of Davy, his bandmate in the Subway Ghosts, MLB.com’s Michael Clair — who is on-site in Japan — has a book about the cinderella Czech Republic team from 2023 that I just started. It’s called We Sacrifice Everything for Baseball https://bsky.app/profile/michaelclair.bsky.social/post/3mf2viganmk23. Definitely worth a look if you love the underdog stories of the WBC

Jay Jaffe: Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming

Jordan: Do you think Matt Olson has a shot to get inducted?  By the time his contract is up he should have over 400 homers and will only be 35.  500 a real possibility?

Jay Jaffe: Olson popped up on my radar when I did last year’s Cooperstown Progress Report series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

Updating what I wrote there, he turns 32 later this month so he’s no spring chicken, but thanks to his combination of power, plate discipline and elite defense, he’s at 39.7 career WAR/35.7 peak/37.7 JAWS, with three seasons between 3.3 and 4.0 that he could still improve upon to approach a 40-WAR peak before too long. That’s a guy with at least an outside shot at the Hall

Matt VW: Scale of 1 to 10 how keen are you on the World Baseball Classic?

Jay Jaffe: I love the WBC! I will watch the hell out of it. I haven’t done enough to absorb all the details of the pools and rosters yet but Kiri’s series has gotten me jump-started in that direction

Jay Jaffe: So put me down for like a 9 there.

puddle: Any WBC teams you’re especially interested in watching, aside from the obvious top 3?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming you mean Team USA, defending champions Japan, and the Dominican Republic, the other ones I’m most interested in from a rooting standpoint are the Netherlands (honkbal!), Korea, Israel, and the Czechs. Plus I always love seeing the talent collected for the Venezuela and Puerto Rico teams though the latter has been hit by injuries and insurance issues.

Alby: Something you said answering a letter last week has me wondering – are most members of the Hall of Fame small-hall or large-hall by inclination?

Jay Jaffe: You are apparently referring to our subscriber mailbag, where I tackled the prospect of an at-large BBWAA election of players who fell off the writers ballot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-february-28-2026/. In there, I covered the troubles both the writers and the expanded Veterans Committee of the first decade of this millennium had in handling large pools of candidates

Jay Jaffe: As I noted there, the basic problem with the expanded VC — which included all living Hall of Famers and all Frick and Spink Award winners — was that the Hall of Famers didn’t think any of those guys was good enough for their country club. While individuals might support their former teammates to a greater degree, that’s a small-Hall bunch if I ever saw one.

Guest: also, do you think ABS challenges can be a good component of WAR?

Jay Jaffe: I think that as with framing runs, we will be able to come up with some additional component that adds or subtracts a few runs but that in most cases it won’t be a huge deal

DJ: In light of the Jurickson Profar PED news, are teams typically made aware of the positive test well before the public reports?

Jay Jaffe: As I understand it, no, with the caveat that a player who suspects he failed could send a heads-up. The way it’s supposed to work is that the program’s confidentiality is strict enough that the team finds out only when the player does.

Cody Christie: Do you see a scenario where Johan Santana is elected to the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: I think that something like the pathway towards election of Félix Hernández by the BBWAA could heighten interest in Santana as an Era Committee candidate when he becomes eligible for the 2029 Contemporary ballot. But the Era Committee process is anything but reliable, especially for a one-and-done guy, so I wouldn’t hold my breath; in fact, as I wrote this past weekend, I think he’d have a MUCH better shot if he were to be considered by the current BBWAA voters, who based upon the discourse and the surges we saw in voting percentages are going through a pretty deep consideration of starting pitching standards right

Jubs: There’s a few notable names still on the free agent market, and the top 4 by projected fWAR are all starting pitchers. What are the chances Littell, Giolito, Corbin and Gray get picked up before the end of Spring Training?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say pretty good unless any of them is having reservations about pitching in 2026. Pitching injuries happen all the time, creating gaps in rosters, and the sight of spring baseball can spur some FOMO as well.

Thank you: Where is the best resource to get pitch data such as pitches used and velocity for 2026 spring?

Jay Jaffe: You can see the basics on our player cards, which right now default to showing spring training data. for example:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: We’ve also got plate discipline data on those pages as well as basic spring stats leaderboards https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/spring-training?stats=pit&seasonstar…

For more granular stuff, you’re still going to want to use Baseball Savant, but it’s pretty cool to have the above stuff closer at hand if that’s what you’re looking for (not that you should be putting much stock in ST performance data, ahem)

BIG SEXY: Are you excited to watch Alexei Ramirez play again? 44 years strong

Jay Jaffe: Hell yeah, I love seeing the older guys come back for stuff like this. Didi Gregorius is on the Netherlands team, Hyun Jin Ryu for Korea, and I’m sure I’m forgetting a few others

Look At This Sotograph: Let’s say Skubal gets another Cy Young this year, with a 6.5-win season. That’s 3 Cy Youngs. His HOF odds would still be very poor, wouldn’t they?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t call them very poor — the evaluation of what makes a Hall of Fame starter is likely to undergo considerable evolution over the next 15-20 years and we’re only at the bleeding edge of it. What we know is that he’s going to have a pretty impressive head start on anyone else with similar workloads and WAR.

That said I think any starting pitcher going today who isn’t already to at least 40 WAR should still be considered a long shot.

Mad Max: How much do you think I get to pitch this year before August?  I mean I’m all about the postseason, but then again I’m all about taking the ball and heading to the mound. How’s this going to work this season?

Jay Jaffe: Our Depth Charts guys have Scherzer projected only for 51 innings. I think he’ll do more than that if he’s healthy. We know he’s unlikely to pitch before May but if he’s activated some time that month and stays in the rotation, it’s not hard to imagine him getting about 50 innings before August

Guest: If you were a player, are there any conditions in which you’d accept a salary cap? Like if there was a high floor and it was 90% or revenue? Or have the owners proven themselves to be so untrustworthy with their books that you would just assume they’re cooking the numbers in a way that’s favorable to ownership? Or is the lack of a cap too valuable to even consider?

Jay Jaffe: If I’m a player, I need the union to see the books before I agree to a salary cap. I think I’d also need a complete overhaul of compensation for a player’s first six years, which could include some combination of higher minimum salary, earlier arbitration, and earlier free agency.

Needless to say, I don’t see this happening.

robd4701: I saw an interesting comparison between Salvador Perez’s hall of fame case and Lance Parrish, who has a similar profile: healthy home run count, low on base percentage, and a healthy number of all star games, gold gloves, and silver sluggers.  An important part of a championship team as well.  I know where you stand on Salvy’s credentials, but do you think that Parrish’s one and done may be a good example of where Perez’s candidacy will end up (one and done) or is there something that makes Perez standout in relation to Parrish or other borderline candidates?  Thanks for all you do.

Jay Jaffe: I think Perez is more popular than Parrish was, and more closely identified with his team’s success; those Tigers also had Trammell and Whitaker as well as Jack Morris — all four of them were rookies on the Topps 1978 set, my first as a collector, incidentally — plus Kirk Gibson, Darrell Evans…

Jay Jaffe: So I think Perez will get some support and it will be a polarizing debate, like that around Morris, or Vizquel before the really ugly stuff hit the fan

Jay Jaffe: on that note…

Ben: Do you think confusion between Dwight and Darrell Evans hurts their HoF cases? Is there a good mnemonic device to keep them separate?

Jay Jaffe: I think only casual fans get the two mixed up. Dwight has had a higher profile in recent years thanks to his 2020 Era Committee  candidacy and the 2024 book he did with Eric Sherman (Dewey: Behind the Gold Glove). Darrell we haven’t heard much from lately.

Mnemonic

W – I think dWight’s case is a potential Winner thanks to that recent popularity and his eight Gold Gloves

L – sadly I think darreLL’s cause is a losing one because of his .248 batting average (which yes, matters to voters), his lower visibility, and the crowd of his contemporaries at 3B outside the Hall including Graig Nettles, Sal Bando, and Buddy Bell, all ahead of him in JAWS

Jay Jaffe: There is a metric ton of Profar-related questions. I’m noting them and will incorporate some of them into my article for tomorrow but I’m not going to saturate the chat with them.

Alby: I’m puzzled by FG’s playoff odds giving Atlanta the best chance of winning the NL East considering they’ve lost two starting pitchers.

Jay Jaffe: They do still have Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, and they’re expected to get Schwelly back from surgery to remove bone spurs at some point (sorry, sorry). I think they’re candidates to dip into the Giolito/Corbin/Littell/Gray pool of available free agents. But yeah, it all seems so precarious — including relying upon Reynaldo Lopez after he managed just 5 innings last year — that I wouldn’t pick them to win the NL East.

Dan wrote about them, with an eye on their pitching depth, recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atlantas-risky-rotation-perils-the-teams-c…

guest v2: Most unlikely future hall-of-famer who you can realistically see a path for induction? I’m thinking of an alternate reality Andrelton Simmons who could hit enough into his thirties and accumulate WAR.

Jay Jaffe: Kinda feel like that describes Marcus Semien, who has just three All-Star selections and two Gold Gloves but is 23rd among second basemen in JAWS (49.2/40.6/44.9); about 75% of players with a 40-WAR peak are eventually elected, but his lack of individual honors (though he has three top-3 MVP finishes) and a .253 batting average that’s more likely to fall than rise over the remainder of his career — all that makes him a long shot

Jay Jaffe: More on Profar, not sure the background yet https://x.com/ken_rosenthal/status/2028896158861672612?s=46&t=g_PT0BXb…

War2D2: Hi Jay! The question about ABS made me think of something: I’m sure you’ve publicly voiced an opinion on replay and ABS, but I don’t think I’ve seen it. Personally I dislike both because I feel like what is lost (drama associated with close plays to end a game, or in the case of ABS an umpire’s theatrical strike three call) isn’t worth what is gained (maybe like…5% greater accuracy on the outside?). Baseball for me is entertainment first and foremost, and both make watching the game (for me at least) measurably less entertaining. Where do you stand?

Jay Jaffe: I generally like the use of instant replay and have been supportive of its use from the outset, but the exception is those nanosecond lose-contact-with-the-base plays, which I think tend to eat up a lot of challenge time. As for ABS, I’m glad that it’s only a challenge system that’s being used instead of the full monty, and so far, it’s seemed relatively unobtrusive.

Jeff S: Jay….i can’t shake this gross feeling about 2027. It’s honestly killed my excitement for this season. My son is just starting to really enjoy baseball and watch MLB and now it sounds like there won’t be a season next year. I hate it. Makes me sick. Do you have any hope for 2027?

Chaim Time: I don’t *want* to bring up politics, but I think we sort of have to…? The owners are going to lock out the players at the end of 2026. This will be right after Trump loses control of at least the House. He is a narcissist who cannot help but put his nose into anything drawing media attention–especially things that are part of classical American culture, like baseball. He also likes to “make deals” and take credit for solving problems. The odds of him **not** inserting himself into the lockout on the side of the owners, in an attempt to change the topic after the November elections is basically nil. Why is no one talking about this, and is either side preparing for this inevitability?

Jay Jaffe: As I have said in these chats before, I don’t think it makes a ton of sense to sit around worrying about the 2027 season when you have absolutely zero control over it. The noise level right now is very high and won’t go away, the owners will continue with propaganda that will be laundered by casual fans and compliant media, the players’ union has to get its house in order, there almost certainly will be a lockout, and the negotiations will get ugly.

All of that’s true and enough to make my stomach turn, and yet here’s where I come down on this: the owners have too much at stake in terms of upcoming TV contracts, expansion fees, and the continual appreciation of franchise valuations to lose a season or a significant chunk of one to a labor dispute. So I’m just going to keep my focus on enjoying baseball, and evaluate what’s happening on the field and off when necessary. The rest of the world is enough of an anxiety-provoking shitshow for me to let that seep into this territory until it’s absolutely necessary

Jay Jaffe: Take a deep breath and watch some baseball, folks.

Temperature Down: With a WBC that’s received a ton of attention on the heels of the Olympics, MLB returning to broadcast television, a swelling of interest from young fans in recent years, and a new round of broadcast bidding just two seasons away…I just don’t see how the owner’s risk all this momentum. It would be incredibly risky (financially and culturally) to not have a full season next year. If I’m an owner knowing labor agreements only last about 3 years of so, I don’t stand pat on a salary cap until AFTER the long-term broadcast agreements are in place. Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe: I think you’ve got the right idea. This negotiation isn’t the hill the owners should be dying on.

529: Some of the historical greats have been (rightly) dinged a little because they didn’t play against the full population. However, back in the day baseball compared to other sporting options was way more popular, as in the best American athletes for the most part now play football, not baseball. How do those effects balance each other out?

Jay Jaffe: I think you have to factor better nutrition and training into the equation as well, aided by technological advances (medical and analytical). I think players today are competing against better and better-prepared athletes than their predecessors

Expansion: What two cities would you want to see added to the league? Nashville and Portland seem like the front runners

Jay Jaffe: I’m partial to Salt Lake City instead of Portland, and between the ownership group pushing for it and a favorable political climate, I think it may have the edge right now. The Athletic’s Stephen Nesbitt recently wrote about SLC as a sports boomtown https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7044898/2026/02/23/utah-mlb-expansion…

As for Nashville, I think it’s competing with Charlotte for the addition from the Eastern half of the US. I don’t really have a dog in the hunt but Nashville does have a higher profile nationally because of the music. So I guess I’ll go ith that

mmddyyyy: Was the difficulty order of the defensive spectrum always the same as it is now?

Jay Jaffe: I think the biggest change is that second base used to be less important than third base due to the prevalence of bunting.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, that’s it from me this week. I guess I need to go dig into what’s going on with Profar. Thanks so much for stopping by, and check out the World Baseball Classic for some competitive baseball action this week.