Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: After spending most of the past 24 hours in bed with a low-grade fever and stomach bug, I have returned to the land of the living

Jay Jaffe: Before I went under, I wrote about the weirdness of Sunday’s Yankees game, with the official scoring change regarding Max Fried’s no-hit bid and the umps appearing to mess up a call on a potential Aaron Judge home run https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-no-hit-bid-and-home-run-that-wasnt/

Phil: There’s been a lot of justified caution tempering expectations about Trevor Story. Can we finally start to feel like, yes, the Red Sox have their shortstop at long last?

Jay Jaffe: He’s off to a great start, and it’s certainly nice to see. I don’t expect him to stay this hot but I think he can be a force in that lineup if he stays healthy. The thing is, health is a skill, and he’s had a hard time staying available. Fingers crossed he can do so

Idiotic Failson: Is Semien cooked? He’s been awful.

Jay Jaffe: Good question. He’s not hitting the ball appreciably worse than last year. I think he might be worth a closer look in an article. I’m curious as to what’s going on as well

not the lunch guy: Alcantara for Alcantara. Who says no/what else needs to be in the deal?

Jay Jaffe: Every time I see the name Alcantara I think of the jerkass Red Sox prospect who kicked a catcher in the head back in 2001. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1527188431481572

Jay Jaffe: Sandy A. has been pretty bad so far since coming back from TJ surgery, high walk rate, low chase. I’m not sure I’d give up much for him right now.

Weird1@Portland: Will Bellinger be a 20-20 man with a .250 BA?

Jay Jaffe: he’s only stolen 20 bases once, so I’d bet against that. He’s off to a rough start with the Yankees, hitting the ball harder but strikeout rate way up. Not sure yet what’s going on there

Jazzy Jaffe: If you started on 1B, and Chandler Simpson started at home, do you think you could win a foot race to 2B?

Jay Jaffe: I think I could do that, if I was warmed up, but I’d need a week of icing my hamstrings and quads

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, obliquely, I got around to streaming Eephus the other night. Offbeat, entertaining and meandering movie about baseball and the passage of time. Some great performances including Bill Lee coming out of the woods to throw an inning

Jay Jaffe: yesterday when I was sick I kept thinking of the sore-kneed catcher moaning, “I need to be put down.”

Bobby: Obviously it’s still very early in Elly De La Cruz’s career. But at what point would it be valid to really begin wondering if he’ll ever be an elite hitter?

Jay Jaffe: it’s valid. he’s gotta cut down on the swing-and-miss. he hits the ball hard enough and is as entertaining as any player in the game, but that  33% strikeout rate makes it hard to put up big numbers

Jay Jaffe: I’d pay money to watch him leg out a triple though

Tacoby Bellsbury: Have you read any of Laurila’s interview lookbacks at old scouting reports? If so, what have some of your takeaways been?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve read a few. Great series. Enjoyed today’s Max Scherzer one a lot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-addresses-his-2008-baseball-a…

Jay Jaffe: The Cody Bellinger one I liked a lot as well. It’s very interesting to see these guys addressing assessments of their strengths and weaknesses, knowing that they panned out where so many others of similar skill may not have done so.

Rick: Given it’s so early in the season, what are key indicators that you look at in terms of determining how hitter are performing, we dont usually have solid sample sizes until a couple of months into the season but how can we identify hot bats or guys firing up?

Jay Jaffe: The first things I look at, especially for players who are struggling, are swing and chase rates — if they’re out of whack with a guy’s track record, he may be pressing. then I look at the statcast numbers, especially once we get to 60 BBE, where they start to stabilize — are his actual numbers in line with his expected ones?

Johnny5Alive: so far, mets seem to have made the right call re: alonso, but is he pricing himself out of another contract with them? how much has this start helped his next contract?

Jay Jaffe: he’s off to a great start but it’s early. I’m very intrigued by his huge drop in K% and his spike in exit velocity, but I want to see the extent to which those hold up when he’s no longer slugging .695.

Jay Jaffe: As for whether he’s pricing himself out of the Mets, I think if he has a big season, it’s gonna be very tough for Uncle Stevie not to open his checkbook — this is a fan favorite  and a team very much in win-now mode

Yolmer Sanchez: The Whitesox may have lost Martin Perez for the majority of the season. Who in the world can they use to eat innings? Will they throw another youngster into the fire to see what they’ve got? Or do they go ahead and pick someone up like Triston McKenzie (despite the yips)?

Jay Jaffe: Probably time to begin the thawing of Early Wynn

Jay Jaffe: that’s a bummer about Perez, I didn’t see that he was so quickly moved to the 60-day IL. Never a good sign.

the White Sox have little to lose by trying to see if they can fix McKenzie but I don’t know that they have any extra insight when it comes to dealing with a player going through what he’s going through. But they’re in a position where they absolutely need to add talent to their system by any means they can so it can’t hurt to take a shot

Tim: Is it fair to wonder if Aaron Nola is hurt? BABIP and LOB suggest he’s been unlucky, Velo and Stuff+ say he’s not as good as last year (at least).

Jay Jaffe: I believe that Davy Andrews, the newest addition to our full-time roster, is working on a piece about Nola. I’m seeing the same things you are — the velo and stuff are down. he’s still getting similar chase and swing-and-miss rates so maybe it’s just a mechanical rut and not an injury but.. he’s got a lotta mileage on him

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived. I had only about 12 ounces of Lipton chicken noodle soup and half a bagel yesterday so I’m ravenously hungry

Jay Jaffe: bold move to get back on the horse with a burrito but I think it’s a good sign I’m that ambitious

Gene Lamont: Clay Holmes has been relatively solid thus far, obviously not as solid as Seth Lugo was to start last year. Do you think Holmes will have Lugo-like success as the year goes on or do you think he’ll just stay at the level he’s currently at?

Jay Jaffe: We’re still pretty early in the Holmes-as-starter experiment but I like what I’m seeing. Both the four-seamer and changeup have been effective additions to his arsenal

Jay Jaffe: i don’t know that he can be as good as Lugo has become but I’m not ruling it out

buffy, the umpire slayer: We are about 30 days into the season. In selecting replacement players, how much weight should ROS projections be compared to what a player has actually produced in those 30 days. Joc Pederson and Ben Rice are examples (both ways) of players where the eye test seems to override the numerical projections.

Jay Jaffe: projections are important because they reflect a guy’s track record while incorporating age-based changes, but as we’ve seen over and over, player development has become more malleable as players do things like overhaul their swings or engineer pitches to add to their arsenals. Rice has added a ton of bat speed and is hitting the ball much harder so I think we need to mentally adjust our expectations.

I’m not sure what is going on with Joc. I expect he’ll snap ou of it but I wonder if he’s fully healthy.

Jordan: What can the Pirates do to salvage the 2024-26 seasons?

Jay Jaffe: Sell the team

Jay Jaffe: Nothing is ever going to change for the Pirates so long as Bob Nutting is the owner. We’re 18 years into this, and outside of a brief flash of success when the stars aligned from 2013–15, it’s been the same old story. They just don’t add enough talent to that organization because they don’t spend.

Mr. Burrito: I’m not whining, I swear. I get that any Dodgers problems, this year, are first-world issues. But I’m getting worried about Muncy and Pages increasingly looks like a 4th outfielder. Do they need another bat? And, if so, should it be Luis Robert Jr.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been a little skeptical about Pages given his contact issues, and boy howdy have those resurfaced. He may very well be a 4th outfielder.Not sure yet what’s going on with Muncy but we’ve seen him go through funks before and he always seems to find his way out. Maybe the other Max Muncy is stealing his mojo.

Robert has been so bad for the past year-plus, I wouldn’t touch him with a 40-foot pole

Big Jim: Jay – thanks for taking the time today and glad you’re feeling better (pre-burrito).

Jay Jaffe: thanks, it’s good to be back in the land of the upright

Big Jim: What can we feasibly expect from Lance McCullers once he is back in action?  Do you think that he eventually moves to high leverage relief if he’s effective (given his lengthy injury history)?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think anybody really knows — this is a guy who’s made eight starts since the 2021 season and who has only once made more than 22 starts. I’m not sure that shorter but more frequent bursts of action is the answer, but maybe that’s what it will take

md: What are your thoughts on the (mostly unhinged fan) scuttlebutt of trying to get Muncy outta there for Arenado?Friedman has kind of been on record saying he doesn’t like big midseason trades like that, right?

Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty lukewarm on Arenado at this stage, at least in terms of giving up significant talent for him. By all evidence he’s a league-average bat with a glove that’s still above average but no longer elite. That’s useful but not somebody I wanna pay $25–30M per year for

Sevvy: What percentage would you put your confidence at for Chandler Simpson being able to handle major league pitchers? He rarely struck out and walked at a decent clip in the minors. I don’t get why so many think that wouldn’t transfer well with his speed.

Jay Jaffe: I think the concern is that he’s got so little power that there’s little reason for pitchers not to challenge him and he ends up with a Juan Pierre-type profile.

Allison: Is Luis Robert overrated or just mentally done on a terrible team?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question. I wouldn’t discount the effect of being surrounded by a miserable situation but… even if that’s the case it doesn’t speak well of the player because there are plenty who can block that out and still perform well. What I do think is more likely is that White Sox are so behind the times that he’s not getting the proper intel for how he’s being pitched and how to adjust.

Mo’s bowtie: Regardless of “on-field performance” and all that, what do you think the odds are of Bloom selecting a new manager in Stl for 2026?  How important is that to a “new” GM?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been pretty unimpressed by Marmol… and, frankly, every Cardinals manager since La Russa. If I’m Bloom I want a fresh start with a new voice in the dugout.

Sad O’s Fan: Hey Jay, random idea and I know fangraphs isnt a fantasy baseball site, but i think it would be super cool to have some kind of “save” or “bookmark” on player pages. As a fantasy player i do most of my prospect research here, and especially when i read an article or look at a player page for some interesting young DSL guy it would be great to be able come back to that list of guys on my fangraphs profile so i dont lose track of them down the road

Jay Jaffe: not a bad idea. You can do things like make a custom player list of your fantasy team so that you can pull up that report and see at a glance how your guys are doing

For the birds: Thoughts on the orioles pitching situation? Like I get that Morton being their #1 wasn’t part of the plan but he was still their #3 which is not much better

Jay Jaffe: So far, I’m pretty underwhelmed by Elias’ ability to maintain a contender and don’t think much of the new ownership, which should be locking up these young studs like Adley and Gunnar.

The Orioles didn’t do nearly enough to fortify a rotation that was pretty mediocre besides Burnes (who departed) and Grayson Rodriguez (who had injury issues last year and seems to be even worse off now). Morton is a fine #4 but if he’s closer to the front of your rotation, you’ve got issues.

ghost of Vin Scully: Am I right to be disappointed in Roki Sasaki’s performance to date and even his eventual ceiling? Champagne problems and adjustment period notwithstanding, I can’t help but think he needs another pitch. Fastball not generating whiffs

Jay Jaffe: There’s obviously a lot of hype surrounding him and relative to that, he’s been a disappointment but I think it’s important to remember that he’s not a finished product. He’s 23, has a high-velo fastball and a nasty-as-hell splitter, but he may be adjusting to the different baseball as well as a different culture. I agree that he probably needs another pitch… and better command.

Lomster: Regarding your piece about the Twins.  Another example of their fumbling/bumbling: Baily Ober’s disastrous start of March 30. Two days prior he was sick in bed and the day before the start he had an IV. If Ober had a desk job I could understand “going to back to work” the next day. But he’s a major league pitcher where the margins for success are already thin when 100% healthy, especially in Ober’s situation in which this season there have been concerns about his declining velo to begin with. Whatever happened to putting your players in the best position to succeed? This was the complete opposite.

Jay Jaffe: there’s a lot of machismo and pride involved when it comes to player health. I don’t think this is specific to the Twins, but yeah I probably would have pushed him back in the rotation even if he declared he was good to go.

Guest: It seems to me that any great young pitcher has significantly lower HOF odds than a great young position player of roughly the same age/experience/talent just due to pitcher injuries.  Agree?  To draw out the comparison: Skenes HOF odds?  Elly HOF odds?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’d agree. We just aren’t seeing longevity out of pitchers the way we used to due to injuries and — let’s face it — money. Not everybody is going to put themselves through another surgery/rehab cycle if they’re sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars. Makes you appreciate what Kershaw has gone through the past couple of years even as he’s sealed the deal regarding Cooperstown.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, gonna call it here since I’m not quite 100% myself. Thanks so much for stopping by!