Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat!

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Eugenio Suárez’s four-homer game https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarez-joins-the-four-homer-club-a… and the changes he’s made over the past year.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow I’ll have something on the Logan Gilbert injury and the shape of the Mariners rotation.

Jay Jaffe: Today I am alas nursing a sore lower back, something that’s dogged me for over a week and has me in a bit of a grouchy mood. I’m moving gingerly at best. Ugh.

Mr. Fister: Jay, thanks for chatting!  I asked this about 5 years ago, and I’d like to re-visit it.  I know the odds are probably that he does not make the HOF, but what would Salvy Perez have to do in the remainder of his career to increase those odds?

Jay Jaffe: he’d have to convince me that his -115. 8 framing runs was just an accounting error.

Jay Jaffe: Seriously, he has 18.2 fWAR once you account for his pitch framing. I’m never gonna vote for that or recommend anyone else should

Jay Jaffe: not when Russell Martin (545 fWAR) and Brian McCann (52.1 fWAR) went one-and-done on the 2025 BBWAA ballot.

Jay Jaffe: Still mad!

Eli: Is it time for Yankee fans to just accept that Volpe is Alvaro Espionza with a bit more pop and a bit less mustache?

Jay Jaffe: Dude has a low batting average but a 122 wRC+ on a .229/ .322/.448 slashline. I don’t love his approach at the plate but he’s an excellent defender and baserunner who was worth 3.4 wins last year as a 23-year-old. Crankees fans need to stop worrying about what Volpe can’t do (hit for a Jeteresque batting average) and appreciate that they have a pretty good shortstop right now.

Seeking Solutions: Do you ever think about this era you’re covering as a specific period of time in baseball history? Post-steroids? Pre-salary-cap? Strikeouts and dingers? Just wondering, since you have such a grasp on the various eras and ballplayers. Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I tend to think of this as the analytics era, since the advanced statistical stuff drives so much decision making and even player development.

Dirt: Mathematically speaking, should teams be IBBing Aaron Judge more?

Jay Jaffe: I think so, though not to Bonds levels. Would be interested in seeing someone model this.

Topher B: What do you think Juan Soto’s WRC+ will be at the end of the year? Been a slow but not unreasonable start for him so far

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll be close to his career mark of 157 (he’s at 124 now). Not sure exactly what’s going on with him but we saw him scuffle a bit like this when he was traded to the Padres. He may be a superhuman hitter but he’s hitting too many groundballs right now so I’m guessing he’s just a mechanical tweak away.

Alec: Is there any kind of statistic that currently factors baserunning into an effective slugging percentage? Thinking of speedsters like Chandler Simpson who hit a ton of singles, but if they steal second base x% of the time they get to first, they’re effectively doubles. Does Fangraphs have anything like this – basically adding SB to a players TB when calculating slugging %?

Jay Jaffe: No, and the problem with that approach is that the extra base he adds by stealing doesn’t have the same effect as a double because it’s not advancing the runner.

Gregory: HOF chances for Altuve?  Some would argue that if you keep Bonds, Clemens, and others out for suspicion of cheating, Altuve should be in the same boat, and I tend to agree.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll get elected, whether or not he gets to 3,000 hits or approaches the JAWS standard at 2B (he’s over 10 points short, no pun intended). If Carlos Beltrán — who has been portrayed as far more central to the sign-stealing scheme — is on the cusp of election (70.3% in 2025) then I don’t see how the player who reportedly asked his teammates not to tip him off is going to suffer at the hands of voters.

Robert Nerenberg: Baseball in Colorado isn’t a workable proposition is it?

Jay Jaffe: Not so long as it’s owned by the Monforts, at least.

Jazz: Can you explain something to me Jay?  Why is it that with the PED cloud keeping the Bonds, Kent, Clemens of the world out of the HOF, someone like David Ortiz, who actually failed PED tests (unlike the former three players listed) makes it?  Is is simply because of the whole “Boston Icon”, “our effing city”, teddy bear persona?  I literally do not get it.  What separates cheaters in the eyes of voters, and why did Ortiz, a cheater, make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Ortiz reportedly failed the 2003 survey test, which was supposed to be anonymous — a crime was committed in leaking the results — and years later, Manfred publicly noted that the substance for which he tested positive was one that would have been subject to arbitration over the validity of the results. It was a curious step but it did seem to clear him in the eyes of those who might have otherwise been inclined to withhold their support.

Jay Jaffe: Me, I draw a line between the pre-testing era, when there were no penalties in place for using PEDs, and the start of testing in 2004. So I voted for Ortiz and Bonds and Clemens.

Zach: So, was everyone wrong about the Mariners offense? They’re #2 in baseball in wRC+ this season, and #1 since Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over last August.

Jay Jaffe: They’re off to a very encouraging start, for sure. I don’t think that makes everybody wrong — we’re talking about 28 games, not 162, but some nice bouncebacks from guys like Crawford and Polanco, who are better players than they looked last year.

Talfred: Should managers reconsider the logic of pinch-hitting? Pinch-hitters this year are hitting .210 with a 79 wRC+, even with pinch-hitters likely having the platoon advantage in their at bats. It just seems harder than ever to come off the bench cold for a plate appearance.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know this for sure but I suspect it’s harder early in the season when the weather is colder as well. But I think the bigger issue is that benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters — the Manny Motas and Lenny Harrises of the world — and they’re facing an increasingly higher percentage of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals. It’s not an easy job.

War2d2: Hi Jay! Moises Ballesteros is hitting .414 with a 1.061 OPS in AAA despite having an absolute dump truck @$$. At what point does it make sense for the Cubs to see if Busch can still play 3rd and if Ballesteros can at least fake it at 1B? Or if not, then whether or not (former infielder) Ian Happ can play 1B and Seiya Suzuki can play LF while Ballesteros gets some run at DH? Cubs’ 3B is such a black hole at this point.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t hold my breath on Busch ever playing third again; I think they burned his glove in an exorcism.

Jay Jaffe: Third base will be solved eventually when Shaw returns. I’m not sure how they shoehorn Ballesteros into that lineup but injuries happen and i imagine we’ll see him up at some point.

Bob: How can you evaluate the career of a player like Luke Easter who did not produce statistics until later in life?

Jay Jaffe: Easter is a particularly tough one — fascinating, even, because he didn’t play in any organized league until his age-31 season… and he kept going until age 48! It seems quite likely that he had Hall of Fame-level talent but a series of bad breaks — struggles in Negro Leagues exhibitions, injuries, the outbreak of World War II — kept him from getting a real shot.

Jay Jaffe: What we do have — a player who hit for a 128 OPS+ and slugged .481 from ages 31 to 38 against major league competition — is pretty impressive given that most players are in their decline phase by that point in time.

Sodo Mojo: Cal Raleigh is looking at another incredible year.  Does he have enough bat to play 1B or DH in the back 5 years of his career and get to the WAR he would need to get a look at the Hall. The peak look good but with all catchers his longevity seems to be the issue.

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical. He got something of a late start in the majors (first full season was age 25) and has a career .219/.299/.451 (114 wRC+) slash line. While he’s been better than that recently, that’s not going to make for a particularly productive 1B/DH once he comes down.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks to his framing, Raleigh does have 15.2 fWAR, 3.0 fewer than our pal Sal Perez, in about 4400 fewer PA. Nuf sed.

Colt Keith: Am I cooked?

Jay Jaffe: No, but you should be in Toledo. I’m sure Spencer Torkelson kept a fridge stocked somewhere.

Dansby Swansong: The Mets +50 run differential is the highest in MLB.  Is it sustainable or just a hot streak?

Jay Jaffe: Their pitching has been great despite the injuries, their offense subpar – and all of that has come against mostly-mediocre competition, as I wrote last Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/francisco-lindor-and-the-mets-have-gone-st…

Dansby Swansong: On that same HOF note, what would Tommy Edman have to do to reach the hall?  

Jay Jaffe: Buy tickets like the rest of us. For like $65 you can get a year membership that allows you unlimited visits and a bit of swag!

Jack: Sorry bout the back – just wrenched my neck in the gym…no fun.
I’ve been analyzing xFIP data and was wondering if FanGraphs would ever consider putting together a team stat that uses the same data that XFIP does to provide a team offensive production stat? Basically, xFIP-against/game for each team – for projection purposes, I figure this may be a data point many would find interesting.

Jay Jaffe: interesting idea but I never look at xFIP now that we have xERA — which uses K, BB, and statcast inputs.

Jay Jaffe: and for offenses that would be xwOBA

Doc Estes: Sorry for asking prospect questions  Brain fart

Jay Jaffe: Getting a lot of prospect and fantasy questions. Neither of those are anywhere close to my wheelhouse so apologies in advance if I bypass yours

Johnny5Alive: Given his current start, and let’s say he finished close to last seasons numbers. If Lindor never played again after this season, is he in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: That’s basically Dustin Pedroia’s career minus the championship and MVP award. I wouldn’t rule it out but I also think it would be a longshot.

12 to 6: will smith’s career ops is 74 points lower in the second half. he’s hammering the ball so far this year – given feduccia and rushing on the cusp, and knowing how the dodgers run smith into the ground during regular season, can we *please* get the fresh prince an “il” blow every once in a while to keep him fresh(er)?

Jay Jaffe: I tend to agree. I think once Ohtani is pitching and takes the occasional day off from DHing there will be a lane for Smith to get a bit of DH time and maybe take a look at Rushing, but I think his future as a receiver might lie in another organization.

Ken: If you could force the sale of any 5 MLB franchises for the betterment of the game, who would they be? A’s, Pirates, and?

Jay Jaffe: A’s, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Angels.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t even have to think very hard to get to 5

Jay Jaffe: I’d add the White Sox and Cubs as well

tyler locklear enjoyer: at what point do the mariners give up on donovan solano? ive never seen a baseballsavant page so blue

Jay Jaffe: They’re not going to eat a $3.5 million contract on the basis of 46 PA, particularly when they just lost a 2B (Ryan Bliss) for the season. Not that Solano has played much 2B lately but he’s presumably an option

MF Luder: It seems inevitable that Boston trades Yoshida for a Coke and a smile. Which team(s) do you think will go after him? Seems like an above average lefty bat to me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Jay Jaffe: They’re going to have to eat a huge chunk of the $50-million plus still on the books if they are going to deal a guy who is basically a platoon DH.

Jay Jaffe: But it does seem inevitable given the crowd the Red Sox have in the outfield. Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, and probably eventually Campbell given that they’ll have to find a spot for Mayer as well.

MF Luder: Is Baltimore’s slow start an outlier, or is their offense overrated due to inflated prospect name value?

Jay Jaffe: Their big problem is a dogshit rotation with a 5.62 ERA.

Jay Jaffe: yes, their young players aren’t hitting but i think that’s a secondary concern.

Turbo: What is going on with Julio Rodriguez? BABIP luck seems to be really bad — Are players picking up on something obvious for him or is he just unfortunate?

Jay Jaffe: He’s chasing too much, struggling against sliders, hitting too many grounders and not pulling the ball in the air

Guest: Eugenio Suarez is the most underrated player in baseball since 2016. Your take?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think he’s the *most* underrated but he’s a very solid 3-4 win player who can put together some real hot streaks

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about him yesterday, link near the top.

Max: Bregman has a real shot at finishing his age 31 season with 45+ fWAR. Assuming he is not going to have anymore 7+ WAR seasons, will likely need a healthy decline phase to make HOF. Roughly what number do you think gets him there?

Jay Jaffe: 11 of the 18 HOF 3B have 68 bWAR or higher, with Home Run Baker, Dick Allen, and Jimmy Collins ranging from 53-63 and everybody below that with no business in the Hall. He’s at 41.3 by that measure so he’s got major work to do.

I don’t really see him on a Hall path the way I do Machado, Arenado, and Ramírez.

darrenasu: Hey Jay…happy Tuesday! So…Wyatt Langford. Do you see anything in his underlying metrics that suggest his current stat line is inflated? Or is this who he is now? A juggernaut at the plate?

Jay Jaffe: he’s about 60 points ahead of both his xBA and xSLG so yes, I’d say these numbers are inflated. Still I think you’re looking at a kid who could easily post a .350 OBP and .500 SLG as a 23-year-old

glt4dc: Something I’ve always wondered, even prior to Suarez’s 4HR game – why are there are fewer 4 HRs games than perfect games?  To vastly oversimplify, there are many fewer moving parts necessary for a 4 HR outcome (good swings on 4 fat pitches in 4-6 ABs) than a perfect game (100 nearly perfect pitches, no bad borderline calls by the ump, no fielding miscues).  So why has Suarez’s feat been an even rarer occurrence than Halladay et al?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good question. I suspect a lot of it has something to do with the likelihood of walking a hot hitter, either intentionally or unintentionally

A Lack Bohm: Re: The pinch hitting question.  Seems to me like there’s an intreesting article (or a research piece more like) into looking at the counterfactual situation.  Define a set of ‘pinch-hitting situations’ (late in the game, batter has a platoon split and/or is a poor hitter, etc.) and see what the wRC+ is for pinch-hitters vs. batters not pinch hit for.  Seems possible that a wRC+ of 78 could be an improvement if you’re talking about, say, Brandon Marsh vs. a lefty.

Jay Jaffe: indeed. Sometimes replacement level performance is a step up

Talfred: So, if “benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters . . . and they’re facing an increasingly higher percentage of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals.” maybe they should take a look at the efficacy of continuing to use pinch-hitters like it’s 1995.

Jay Jaffe: They’re not, because pitchers don’t need to be pinch-hit for anymore, but oddly enough, the major league wRC+ for PH, which was 83 in each of the past 2 full seasons, is higher than it was anytime between 2002–18 (the span for which we have detailed splits to do wRC+). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=0&ind=0&ros…

deGrom: Have I hit any HOF thresholds in your eyes?

Jay Jaffe: not until the electorate begins electing starters who are well short of 2,000 innings

Craig: Jay have you ever thought about doing a poll to see how differently fangraphs readers use the site?  Like, what percentage of readers use content for fantasy purposes?  How many articles they read?  What writers draw the most traffic (I know this could be seen as a popularity contest), if they prefer lists or chats or articles?  I think this would be a great read!

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t. I imagine it’s something David Appelman has thought about but I also think the traffic numbers probably give us similar insights.

Craig: Only saying because I see a lot of writers make references to “I don’t answer fantasy questions”, and I would wager that a majority of readers are here for that very reason, fantasy.  Not a knock, just an observation from a long-time reader and subscriber.  Thanks for all you do to provide us content!

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t played fantasy baseball in 15 years and it had stopped being fun for me for awhile before that — I’m pretty out of touch with the stuff, so I don’t try to tackle those types of questions

Bing Bong: Szymborski said you were the staff member he’d least like to fight. Is the feeling mutual? If not, with whom amongst your colleagues do least wish to throw hands?

Jay Jaffe: Ha, that’s funny. I don’t want to fight anyone I work with but I bet Paul Sporer, with his huge advantage in reach and height, would be a particularly difficult matchup

Tacoby Bellsbury: Given the back issues, who are your all-time favorite players with back struggles?

Jay Jaffe: never thought about it along those lines but David Wright is certainly one. Bobby Grich — who injured his back carrying an air conditioner IIRC — another. Kershaw, though it hasn’t stopped him from a HOF career.

Julio Rodriguez: Will I ever have a good April? Relatedly, do you buy that some players may be more prone to slower starts than others, or do you think it’s mostly just noise?

Jay Jaffe: I pondered that question briefly in last week’s pieces on Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. I don’t think Julio had enough PA in March/April to make the cut.

I suspect at least some of the slow start stuff has to do with colder weather and the ball carrying less — something we could dig into in Statcast, perhaps — but some of it is probably just noise.

Fredbird: When will the Cardinals find their next competitive window? Feels like ownership hasn’t had a game plan. That magical/random 2022 season seemed to delay the rebuild. Separately, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Molina bros movie … thoughts? Lol.

Jay Jaffe: Well, the Cardinals are mid-regime change, with Mozeliak having long overstayed his welcome and Bloom waiting in the wings. As we’re seeing with the maturation of a wave of young players in Boston, Bloom has a very good eye for talent, the return on the Mookie Betts trade notwithstanding. So I suspect we’re maybe a few years away from the Big Redbird Comeback.

I cracked up when I saw the Miranda/Molina news. I just hope he works my description for extreme lack of speed  — “slower than a Molina dragging a Molina with another Molina on his back” — into the script.

Matt VW: The Rockies aren’t in your top 5 “need to be sold”?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i guess I wasn’t counting them as major league.

Jay Jaffe: But sure, add them to the list. We’re now up to at least 8 teams that need to be sold.

Lord Thunder: Is there any future scenario in which Lance Berkman gets serious HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe: He went one-and-done on the 2019 ballot, getting just 1.2% of the vote. Historically it’s been nearly impossible for players who suffer that fate even to get onto an era committee ballot. Simmons (the only one elected) and Whitaker are the only ones even to get on a ballot. So no, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Matt: Does Dick Monafort secretly have the special sauce in ownership? You can just create an excellent affordable ballpark experience and trot out a terrible team. People still come for the experience. Some other teams have that advantage like the Red Sox or Cubs because they have history, but the Rockies seem to have a certain science.

Jay Jaffe: You’re probably onto something there, at least so long as an owner can stomach the ritual humiliation

Jay Jaffe: Coors Field is one of the best ballparks I’ve been to. We went there for a FanGraphs staff trip in 2019.

Tim: are we at the point where we’re a Pavin Smoth slump away from Suarez taking the DH spot and Lawlar is called up to play 3rd? Or do other dominoes need to fall?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure what their plan is but Lawler is playing a lot of 2B at Triple-A this year and so I wonder if he’s going to bump Ketel Marte back to the outfield once he’s healthy

Luke: Why did Baltimore sit on their hands all off-season?  Do they not realize the window is open?  Surely they didn’t think, after losing Burnes, that they had enough pitching, right?  Had plenty of farm juice to get a deal done for a starter.  Who’s getting fired for this after this season?

Jay Jaffe: I’m really not sure what their plan is. Rubenstein was supposed to be more inclined to spend on the team than Angelos but here we are, with none of the blue-chip prospect signed to a long-term extension, the rotation in tatters, Burnes long gone, and the competitive window in danger of closing much earlier than expected.

Jay Jaffe: i can understand Orioles fans being angry!

Guest: I realize George Springer won’t be in the HOF, but he’s had a remarkable career and is killing it this year. Is there any other really good players who were known for their postseason performances, but aren’t in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Troy Glaus, Lenny Dykstra, Bernie Williams, and Nelson Cruz come to mind, Randy Arozarena someday, Kiké Hernandez of course. Jon Lester, El Duque, Madison Bumgarner, Orel Hershiser, Andy Pettitte and Curt Schilling on the pitching side.

Guest: Forever mad at the Reds for dumping Suarez to “save money” and then immediately signing Candelario to a more expensive contract to be awful

Jay Jaffe: Woof tha Candelario signing ha s not worked out

Pete: Can we get a moment of silence for Paul Skenes and Bobby Witt Jr?  Bound to play out careers surrounded with replacement level players and maybe one or two guys who can get to 2-3 WAR seasons here and there.  Smh

Jay Jaffe: The Royals at least made the playoffs last year and could do so again.

Paul: Lindor is already at 55fwar to Pedroias 44. With a decent chance of hitting 60 this year. I don’t see the comparison.

Jay Jaffe: The comparison I’m using is based on bWAR, which I use for my Hall stuff, not fWAR (except for catchers because the latter has framing data). Pedroia 51.9 career WAR/41.0 peak/46.4 JAWS (69.5/44.4/56.9 for the standards). Lindor 50.6/41.4/46.0 (67.7/43.2/55.4 for the standards). Looks pretty close to me.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, that’s as much as I can get through for today. Thanks so much for stopping by! We’ll do it again soon.