Francisco Lindor and the Mets Have Gone Streaking

Francisco Lindor has played MVP-caliber baseball for the Mets over the past three seasons and change. He finished as the runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in last year’s NL MVP voting after ninth-place finishes in 2022 and ‘23, and over that span, no position player besides Aaron Judge has accumulated more WAR than his 20.8. Yet Lindor hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2019, in part because he’s often started slowly, making it easier for voters and managers to bypass him. While he was scuffling along in typical April fashion until eight days ago, he’s spurred a seven-game winning streak that’s given the Mets the best record in baseball at 18-7.

Through 25 games, this is the Mets’ best start since 1988, when they also jumped out to an 18-7 start. Those Mets finished 100-60, taking the NL East title under manager Davey Johnson before losing a seven-game NLCS to the upstart Dodgers. They also started 18-7 in 1972; the only time they’ve done better was in 1986, when they started 20-5 and went on to win 108 games and the World Series.

Admittedly, these Mets haven’t assembled their record against the most robust competition. While they did just sweep a three-game series from the Phillies, who won 95 games last year, they’ve played 12 of their 25 games against the Marlins (who lost 100 games last season), A’s (who lost 93), and Blue Jays (who lost 88); their other 10 games have come against the Astros (who won 88), the Cardinals (who won 83), and Twins (who won 82) — and St. Louis and Minnesota appear to have taken several steps back from their 2024 mediocrity, at least in the early going. The Mets have won blowouts (4-1 in games decided by five or more runs) and close ones (7-2 in one-run games); they’ve dropped series only to the Astros and Twins, each of whom took the rubber game of a best-of-three by one run. Competition aside, New York’s record isn’t soft, in that the club is only about one win ahead of its major league-best PythagenPat and BaseRuns winning percentages (.675 and .672, respectively).

Lindor went hitless in the Mets’ first three games, and despite collecting hits in all but one of their next 14, he entered their April 17 game against the Cardinals batting just .239/.308/.343. That night, he went 3-for-4; on a second-inning single, he drove in Brett Baty, and stalled the Cardinals in a rundown long enough to help Tyrone Taylor cross the plate on the same play in a 4-1 victory that snapped a two-game losing streak. The next night, he hit an emphatic upper-deck walk-off home run off Ryan Fernandez — the 250th homer of his career, as it turned out.

Despite an 0-for-4 in the Mets’ 3-0 victory on Saturday, Lindor still made a crucial run-saving play. With the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning of what was then a 2-0 game, he ranged to his left far past second base to field an Alec Burleson grounder, spun, and fired to first for the third out. The next day he went 3-for-5, kicking things off with a leadoff homer — another upper-deck blast — against Sonny Gray and scoring the go-ahead run on Brandon Nimmo’s seventh-inning single in a 7-4 win.

Having helped to dispatch the Cardinals in four straight, Lindor turned his attention to the division rival Phillies, bookending Monday night’s 5-4 win with another leadoff homer, off Aaron Nola, and a three-run seventh-inning shot, off José Ruiz. On Tuesday he went 3-for-5, singling twice off Cristopher Sánchez and driving in the go-ahead run in the second inning; he later singled off Tanner Banks and scored the Mets’ third run on a Pete Alonso double in the 5-1 win. On Wednesday he went 2-for-4 and scored the tying run in the bottom of the 10th on another Alonso double. The Mets won that one, 4-3, to complete a three-game sweep and expand their NL East lead to five games.

That’s a 14-for-30 stretch with four homers, eight runs scored, and eight RBI, a performance that lifted Lindor’s line to .309/.364/.505 (143 wRC+). Have a week, man.

A few days ago, while checking in on Marcus Semien’s slow start, I noted that Lindor had hit for a modest 109 wRC+ in March and April during his career, compared to a 123 wRC+ for the rest of the regular season — a substantial split, but not nearly the largest over the past decade and a half. Edwin Encarnación, José Abreu, and Corey Seager all had gaps of 30 or more points of wRC+. Limiting the selection to Lindor’s time with the Mets, the split is wider even with this past week’s tear. As a Met, Lindor has hit .237/.323/.409 (106 wRC+) in 549 plate appearances in March and April, compared to .267/.341/.476 (127 wRC+) in 2,166 PA from May through the end of the season, for a gap of 21 points.

At first I wondered if the split owed something to Lindor’s being a switch-hitter and needing more time to get two swings tuned up than one, but his platoon splits during his Mets career are within one or two points of wRC+ of each other in both the March/April and the May-onward stretches. A better explanation might be the cold weather that comes with playing in the Northeast. For example, Lindor has hit for a 132 wRC+ when it’s 61 degrees or warmer (our weather splits are based on hourly data, not just at first pitch), both in March/April and for the rest of the season. When it’s 60 degrees or lower — a cutoff I chose to ensure a larger sample size — he’s hit for just an 88 wRC+ in 322 PA in March/April (59% of his PA in those months) and an 80 wRC+ in 173 PA from May onward, though the latter sample represents just 8% of his PA for those months. When it’s 60 or lower, major leaguers as a whole have hit for a 93 wRC+, both in March/April and in the rest of the season, so Lindor’s performance has suffered more than most. I’m not claiming this to have answered my question, but it’s a theory.

Weather aside, Lindor didn’t dismantle the Cardinals and Phillies singlehandedly. Alonso continued his torrid April and is hitting .341/.440/.681 for a 206 wRC+, second only to Pavin Smith (221) among NL hitters. The slow-starting Baty and Mark Vientos each showed signs of life, with the former notching three extra-base hits in those seven games (including a solo homer on Wednesday) compared to one just prior.

Even so, this offense is hardly firing on all cylinders. The Mets are tied for 10th in the NL in scoring (4.20 runs per game) while hitting for a middling 101 wRC+ (.234/.310/.398). Besides Lindor and Alonso, the only players with a 100 wRC+ through at least 50 plate appearances are Juan Soto, who’s hit a comparatively quiet .233/.364/.389 (115 wRC+), and rookie Luisangel Acuña, who’s hit .283/.356/.377 (112 wRC+) in part-time duty at second base. Five players have at least 50 PA and a wRC+ of 72 or lower, namely Vientos, Baty (who’s sharing second with Acuña and spotting at third when Vientos has sat), Nimmo, Taylor (playing center field nearly every day since Jose Siri was sidelined by a broken tibia), and designated hitter Starling Marte. Marte’s platoon partner, Jesse Winker, hasn’t been as bad, but a 96 wRC+ (.213/.283/.447) from a player whose glove is a break-glass-in-emergency accessory is still replacement level. Mets center fielders own the majors’ lowest wRC+ (34) and Mets outfielders, including Soto, have the fourth-lowest mark (76).

Help is on the way, as the Mets plan to activate both catcher Francisco Alvarez and second baseman Jeff McNeil on Friday. Alvarez has been sidelined since March 8 by surgery to repair a fractured hamate in his left hand. He’ll take over the main catching duties from Luis Torrens, who has hit respectably thus far (.241/.279/.397, 90 wRC+) and might carve out a bit more playing time, particularly if Alvarez scuffles. McNeil has been out since mid-March due to an oblique strain; during his rehab assignment, he played two games in center field, a position where he has just three games of major league experience, all in 2023, plus a handful of innings in the minors and some time there while at Long Beach State back in 2013. Either he or Acuña, who played 31 games in center for Triple-A Syracuse last year, could cut into Taylor’s playing time while the other mans the keystone, which could be bad news for Baty, who’s hitting just .204/.246/.352 (68 wRC+) and still has a minor league option remaining.

The real key to the 2025 Mets thus far, aside from the hot hitting of Alonso and Lindor, has been their pitching. Despite losing Frankie Montas to a high-grade lat strain and Sean Manaea to an oblique strain before February was over, the Mets have held opponents to 2.76 runs per game, the fewest in baseball. The rotation — which thus far has consisted of newcomers Griffin Canning and Clay Holmes plus holdovers Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Kodai Senga, has delivered a 2.33 ERA and 2.71 FIP, and there hasn’t really been a weak link. Through five turns (four for Senga), every pitcher in the rotation has ERAs and FIPs of 3.29 or lower.

Senga has been the best at run prevention heading into his start Friday night against the Nationals. Limited to just one regular-season start last year by shoulder and calf injuries, he’s riding an 18 2/3-inning scoreless streak that has lowered his ERA to 0.79; he gave up four runs (two earned) on in his first start and has put up zeroes since. His forkball has been typically devastating, holding hitters to a .120 AVG/.120 SLG with a 46.9% whiff rate, but batters have hit .310 and slugged .552 against his four-seamer, which is averaging 94.9 mph, 0.8 below his 2023 average. Megill (1.09 ERA, 2.18 FIP) and Peterson (3.29 ERA, 3.03 FIP) are both pitching like they’re done being shuttled to Syracuse when bigger-name starters get healthy. Megill has ditched his cutter and has instead more than doubled the usage of both his sinker and slider; our pitch-modeling systems both see his stuff as having improved substantially. Peterson has survived some hard contact; batters are averaging a 91.9-mph exit velocity against him and are slugging .520 or higher against his sinker, four-seamer, and curve.

So far, the change of scenery has agreed with the two additions. Canning has shelved his knuckle curve, restored his cutter, and increased the usage of his slider to the point that he’s throwing it more often than his fastball. His 53.4% groundball rate is almost 14 points higher than his career mark, and he’s posted a 3.12 ERA and 3.29 FIP, allowing more than two runs in just one of his five starts. Holmes, who spent the past three seasons as the Yankees closer, has reintroduced a four-seamer, cutter, and changeup to his arsenal for the first time in more than half a decade. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 18.6% strikeout-walk differential, and 2.12 FIP are tops among the Mets starters.

How manager Carlos Mendoza will configure the rotation once the other starters are healthy isn’t an imminent concern. Manaea had to take a two-week pause from his throwing progression at the start of the month and hasn’t moved beyond playing catch yet, so he may not be back until June. Montas is on a similar timeline and isn’t expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions until the end of this month.

Meanwhile, the bullpen has been the majors’ most effective this side of San Diego, with a 2.35 ERA and 2.77 FIP — and that’s with Edwin Díaz still trying to find his form. While he’s 6-for-6 in save chances, he has a 4.91 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 11 innings. His 12.8% walk rate is a career high, and his Statcast numbers (including a 90.1-mph average exit velocity) are his worst since 2019, his shaky inaugural season with the Mets. Fortunately, setup men Ryne Stanek, A.J. Minter, and Reed Garrett have all been effective, and José Buttó has worked his way into the circle of trust as well, giving Mendoza lots of options.

The combination of New York’s strong start and the struggles of the Atanta (10-14) and Philadelphia (13-12) has more than tripled the Mets’ chances of winning the NL East. At the outset of the season, our Playoff Odds gave them just a 14.6% chance at the division title and a 62.4% chance of reaching the postseason. Four weeks in, they’re up to a 55.5% shot at the division and 86.6% odds overall. While things have hardly gone perfectly, particularly on the offensive side and with regards to injuries, they’ve weathered their early woes well, putting them in a commanding position in the three-team NL East race.