Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/8/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the latest edition of my weekly chat. I’m having some technical difficulties and need to restart my browser, so please give me a few minutes before we get up and running.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, that’s better.

Jay Jaffe: Since it’s April 8, I’ll note a pair of important milestones:  today marks the 51st anniversary of Hank Aaron’s 715th home run, and the 50th anniversary of Frank Robinson making his debut as the first Black manager in AL/NL history.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Reds’ offensive struggles and some interesting developments with Elly De La Cruz’s swing(s) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-reds-offense-has-been-dreadful-so-far-…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on Victor Robles’ spectacular catch and subsequent shoulder injury as well as some other injuries of note: Spencer Arrighetti, Iván Herrera, Ketel Marte and Blake Snell. Should be up before this chat ends

cubs fan: I liked your article about Kyle Tucker’s market price last week, but I’m curious what you’d think he’d get if (like he is so far doing, although April obviously) he matches that superhuman 8-WAR pace from last season rather than the ZIPS projections or the previous career norm (and stays healthy)

Jay Jaffe: Thanks (the piece is here for those that missed: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-tuckers-walk-year-is-off-to-a-strong-…). My guess from playing around with past ZiPS projections from Dan is that a massive season from Tucker on that scale would probably raise his overall suggestion closer to the $270 million Dan predicted. As we saw with Vladito’s $500 million extension, it’s entirely possible — if not more probable given the likelihood of Tucker now heading the upcoming free agent class — that we’ll see figures detached from mere performance projections that take it above $300. I still don’t see how you get to $400 million without a whole lot of, um, departing from reality. But I’d be happy for him to get paid nonetheless.

Ryan: How good is that Jackson Merrill deal going to look for the padres by the end of the season?

Jay Jaffe: The kid is a star, and I think the Padres will be very happy they’ve got him locked up.

Andrew: Have the Mets moved up as one of the better pitching dev orgs in the league within the last few years? It seems like they’re hyping up their pitching lab a lot lately. Have the Yankees seen a bit of a dropoff? They aren’t producing arms like they used to, so is that just a matter of some bad luck or are they seeing less of an organization edge in pitching dev than they used to?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe? Looking back at the last farm system rankings on The Board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings), the Mets have a slight overall edge in prospects graded 35+ or better, 40 to 36, but they’re about even in terms of lower-end pitching prospects (35+ to 40+). Both landed one prospect in the Top 100, with the Mets’ Brandon Sproat at #24 (55 FV) and the Yankees’ Will Warren at #66 (50-FV). Eric Longenhagen obviously has a better handle on this stuff though, so I’m just spitballing.

20longyears: Suppose you’re King of Cooperstown for a day and you can induct as many people in the Executive/Pioneer category as you like, but to make space, you need to remove one previously inducted hall-of-famer (any category) in exchange for each. Who are you adding to Hall, and who is out?

Bob: Do you think Lefty O’Doul should be in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Two fun ones that go hand in hand, as I could be convinced to include O’Doul based upon his role in bringing baseball to Japan

Jay Jaffe: Hold that thought, lunch has arrived…

Jay Jaffe: I think Id start by tossing Bowie Kuhn out of the Hall, as he was on the wrong side of just about every major issue of note during his tenure (though he actually did OK with an end run that helped the Hall figure out it needed to grant full status to Negro Leagues figures instead of a separate-but-equal display). Let’s put Bill White in, as he was important in a long career as a player, pioneering broadcaster, and executive https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c….

Let’s bump Bud Selig out as well, and add Gus Greenlee, who owned the Pittsburgh Crawfords, founded the second Negro National League and served as president, and built Greenlee Field, one of the few ball parks owned by a Negro league team.

Jay Jaffe: And sure, let’s go with O’Doul instead of… Fred Lindstrom, just one of many players with inflated stats from short careers in the 1920s and ’30s who benefitted from being a former teammate of Frankie Frisch. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/19799/prospectus-hit-a…

Jay Jaffe: I could go on all day like this, but let’s move on

Eric: Does Ben Rice have a chance to stick as starter for the Yankees.  He was never on the prospect radar, despite putting up good stats in the minors (albeit usually old for the league), so he seems to have come out of nowhere

Jay Jaffe: I think so. As a prospect, he was downgraded because of his defense at catcher, but that’s no longer a problem. He’s not going to keep hitting .333/.471/.704, but he did give his swing an overhaul that’s added about 3.5 mph to his swing speed. That’s not just a matter of getting hit-lucky so far, that’s a player who has upgraded significantly

Lord Thunder: How far away was Billy Pierce from getting HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe: I was pretty lukewarm on him when he was on the 2022 Golden Days ballot, though he was a better candidate than Jim Kaat, who was elected — not only in terms of his statistics but his competition, as the 50s are comparatively bereft of Hall-caliber starters while the ’60s and ’70s were bursting with them. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-golden-days-era-committee-candidate-b…

Hunting for Hunter: Hunter looked great against the Giants last night, getting pretty close to his first Maddux (close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, of course). Are you buying or selling Hunter Greene making another leap this year?

Jay Jaffe: Buying. I didn’t really get into it in my Reds piece but he merits a closer look, as he’s suddenly getting more chase, and his K% and BB% have both improved substantially.

Jason N: Tatis is looking GOOOOD.  If he can pull off another Top 5 MVP season, is he back on the HoF path?

Jay Jaffe: Until a superstar who failed a PED test and was suspended is elected to the Hall by one means or another, I’m going to assume that Tatis isn’t going to get in. I don’t see what he could do that would cause voters to believe that he’s worthy but not, say, A-Rod or Manny, to say nothing of the guys who are out due to PED connections from the pre-testing era.

Scuffy McGee: For all the money the dodgers have spent, doesn’t the second half of their lineup look increasingly underwhelming?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, they’ve put up a 119 wRC+ without Freddie Freeman for all but three games and the main beneficiary of the playing time has been Kiké, who’s not hitting. Muncy isn’t hitting, and Pagés isn’t either. I expect Freeman to be fine upon returning, and Muncy to come around. They’ve got center field options galore to cycle through in search of one who can hit. they’ll be fine

Scuffy McGee: What guys slow start at the plate has you the most worried

Jay Jaffe: Mike Trout, because he’s had so much trouble staying on the field and because I have anxiety even when he nicks himself shaving. Thankfully he’s at .263/.391/.789 over his last five games after a 1-for-17 start.

Bob: Small sample size but the Mets bullpen and to a lesser extent their starters are off to a very good start while the offense is in an early season funk. Has the hot start by Mets pitching improved your outlook on their pitching staff in general for the remainder of the season? The bullpen is far from the dumpster fires of previous years.

Jay Jaffe: It’s mostly the Braves’ slow start that has improved my outlook on the Mets. The latter surpassed them in the Playoff Odds a couple days ago. But yes, the pitching has been good even without Manaea and Montas, and that bodes well.

Alex: I am an extremely dismayed Atlanta fan. My biggest fear: given their diminished level of performance over the past year-plus, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies are old, gray, and ain’t what they used to be. (Admittedly, Olson’s hitting the ball hard without much to show for it.) Did the Braves spend away their flexibility and extend themselves into an 85-win team?

Jay Jaffe: Some of those extensions — Albies, Acuña, maybe even Harris and Strider — are far enough below market that they should have headroom to keep spending if they need to. I mean, their current payroll is just $208M, $24 short of last year’s figure

md: any tips for reconciling our Dodger fandom with their recent… house visit?

Jay Jaffe: I’d like to subpoena all communication from ownership to everyone down the hierarchy with regards to the visit, but right now I’m absolutely livid. Even Magic Johnson and Billie Jean King have held their tongues, so I think one has to assume that folks like Dave Roberts and Mookie Betts are doing so as well.

While I make a point of watching the Dodgers’ Jackie Robinson Day games every year, I will not do so this year, as the team simply hasn’t done anything to live up to the ideals of the man since the Orange Oompa Loompa took office.

Bullock: Gunnar and Elly are both gonna be free agents after their age 27 season.  In light of Vladito’s contract, safe to assume the price of any extension for them absolutely has to start with a 3 if not a 4?

Jay Jaffe: If they’re still healthy and productive, I’d assume so but given Castellini’s history I’d put money on the fact that the Reds will cry poverty instead of extending Elly. I have only slightly more faith in the Orioles’ new owner; i’ll believe he’ll spend real money when I see it.

Say Jay Kid: Just wanted to say that your HOF content is always HOF level.  Cheers!

Jay Jaffe: Thank you for the kind words, and thanks to David Appelman and Meg Rowley, who have given me the platform to provide such expansive coverage.

Lil Yeasty: A couple years removed, how good do the Witt/Judge deals look for their respective teams?  The fact that 1.25 billion dollars was just spent on two guys who will be DHing in a few years makes KC fans thrilled to have locked up Bobby when we did!

Jay Jaffe: The bill will come due down the road but right now both teams have to be ecstatic with the early returns. Who had Judge putting up the best season ever (in terms of wRC+) by an AL/NL right-handed hitter in year 2 of the deal despite a dreadful early season slump — and looking better in Year 3? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al…

Jay Jaffe: by the way, Judge is at .347/.480/.775 (242 wRC+, 24 points higher than last year’s full-season mark) with 61 homers in 643 PA since I wrote this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum…

Mr. Fister: If you were a GM and you had to choose between having Casey Mize or Jack Leiter as your last starter, who would you want, and what separates the two?

Jay Jaffe: I’d go Leiter. Mize is now 28, and in his fourth season with 300ish innings under his belt, and he’s been maybe slightly better than average but prone to injuries so far. Leiter is less experienced, but has better stuff (if not better command) and higher velocity. I’ll bet on that if I have to choose one of the two

Surprising: Barring another Dodger wall (they will be there this year…), Judge will be 6th all time in Yankee WAR by the end of the year (he’s about to pass A-Rod). Just wanted to note that for such a franchise to get up that high (in what would be like 1100 games) is pretty absurd

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: This is from last Thursday, but it still holds – Judge has just begun his 10th season and is sixth among right fielders in terms of bWAR over his first 10 seasons, with just 1.5 more WAR now needed to get to third behind Henry Aaron and Mookie Betts — though as I pointed out, this doesn’t capture either Babe Ruth or Stan Musial due to their work in left field during the first 10 years of their careers. Still remarkable.

Jay Jaffe: For more Judge fun on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3llxabfkbn22k

Walton Dilcox: In 20 years when it really sinks in that the volume of yesteryear is way way gone, will Ben Zobrist get HoF votes? Other than Tom Glavine I can’t imagine a player others have been compared to even as much

Jay Jaffe: it’s tough enough to get on an Era Committee ballot after going one-and-done; I believe Ted Simmons and Lou Whitaker are the only ones to do so. To get on one after a complete shutout would be an exponentially heavier lift, so don’t hold your breath.

not the lunch guy: You can’t just mention lunch without telling us what it is

Jay Jaffe: Tried the chicken shawarma platter from a new place, Holy Pita. Good stuff, A-/B+, would order again!

Tug McGraw: Aren’t there probably at least a dozen OFs without jobs that are better than anything the Royals are running out there (outside of the occasional Maikel Garcia appearance)?

Jay Jaffe: Dunno about a dozen but I’d run David Peralta and J.D. Martinez, lead glove and all, out there without hesitation if they were alternatives to the Royals’ current crew

Warren: Tyler Soderstrom, huh? To my untrained eye, his Savant page suggests a pretty exciting batted ball profile. What do you think of his ability to settle in as a consistent middle-of-the-order threat? Are we looking at a guy with 130 wRC+ (or more) potential, or more of a slightly above average, forgettable first-base bat?

Jay Jaffe: He was a 55-FV prospect, which definitionally puts him right between the two alternatives you suggested. He’s made some very small tweaks with his stance based on the data, and hitting the ball slightly harder, but I haven’t seen enough to suggest he’s unlocked a new level yet

Guest: Odds that 3+ current Mets end up in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Very low. Lindor and Soto are on their way barring catastrophes, but I can’t even come up with a plausible third candidate unless Díaz puts up another 4-5 seasons like his 2018 and ’22.

Bob: Josh Gibson doesn’t rank highly in JAWS. Should there be an  adjustment for that?

Jay Jaffe: the adjustment is don’t use JAWS for Negro Leagues players. We just don’t have the same kind of volume for their stats to make me comfortable with that. I do look at WAR/162 to get a sense of the pecking order among Negro Leagues players, but it’s tough even to go with that as a direct comp to AL/NL players

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: The Tigers have looked pretty good so far (when not matched up against the Dodgers) – especially considering Skubal has thrown two stinkers and Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling have yet to play. Could they be better than we thought?

Jay Jaffe: Our staff (including me) picked them to win the division, while the Playoff Odds merely had them a close second to the Twins. So I think they’ll be decent but not a powerhouse. Will probably take a closer look at them at some point.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-2025-staff-predictions/

Guest: Is this Lindor’s mvp season?

Jay Jaffe: Well, he’s off to another slow start, and now has to outshine Soto as well as Ohtani. Not saying it won’t happen — indeed, I’d love to see it, because Lindor has become one of my favorite players and personalities in the game — but that’s a tall order.

Please Sell the Team, Bob: Will the Pirates ever figure out the 1st base position? It’s been a revolving door of starters year after year.

Jay Jaffe: Well, they’ve gotten one season with at least 2.0 bWAR from a first baseman out of their last 25 so I’m gonna go ahead and say no https://stathead.com/tiny/W2TER

Jay Jaffe:

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Not that he’s been robbed of his rightful spot in Cooperstown a la Lou Whitaker…but is Chet Lemon an underappreciated player? Career 120 wRC+ with exceptional CF defense and lots of gritty headfirst slides into first base.

Jay Jaffe: Very underappreciated. Career 124 OPS+ and 55.7 bWAR, 21st in JAWS among center fielders.

I made an offhand reference to Lemon a couple weeks ago without realizing that he’s dealing with some serious health issues after suffering a stroke in 2021 https://www.freep.com/picture-gallery/sports/mlb/tigers/2024/08/29/for…

Jay Jaffe: Such a bummer.

Settle a Debate…: How low does Luis Arraez’s batting average have to get over the course of a whole season before he’s considered unrosterable?  He offers literally NOTHING outside of batting average.

Jay Jaffe: at .279 while playing a bad 1B, he’s right about at that line but it’s still early. Not only has he not barreled a single ball in 48 PA, he hasn’t struck out either.

Jerry Garcia: Why do the Rockies?

Jay Jaffe: i guess it’s because they at least have a great ballpark, so they keep doing.

Jerry Garcia: Oops..why do the Rockies refuse to play young dynamic talent without obstructing with replacement level journeymen?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, well, now that you put it that way, it’s because they’re completely adrift and will remain so as long as Monfort owns the team.

Roman: Re Tatis and the HOF, not to disagree with your overall point, but all of the other tainted stars got caught (or like Bonds and Clemens are presumed to have used) later in their careers, opening the possibility that they were using earlier on. If enough of Tatis’s value comes post-ban, maybe voters will assume that was done without ‘roids

Jay Jaffe: Eh, we have pretty well-documented evidence regarding the timelines of when they began using. And neither of them did something as stupid as injuring themselves in a motorcycle accident and squandering the rostering of Juan Soto.

Guest: Need an SP and the three options I see on the waiver wire (deep league) are Walker Buehler, Martin Perez, and Eduardo Rodriguez – all with a sluggish start to 2025.  I think Walker may be toast. I was leaning Perez, but now I’m thinking E-Rod based on FG projections. Who’s the best of the subpar choices?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t usually answer fantasy questions but here the obvious answer is Eduardo Rodriguez. Man, Buehler’s velo is down almost 2 mph from last year so I wonder if there’s something physically wrong. Ouch

I can’t odd: I would have respected anyone who’d gone to the White House to tell the man to his face that he’s a fascist who should be fired into the sun.

Jay Jaffe: I’d have given that guy his own day to be observed leaguwide.

Jay Jaffe: And with that, we’re done for this week. Thanks so much for stopping by! Back with more chat fun soon…