Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/14/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and I’ve already treated myself to tacos al fresco so my mood is more chipper than Larry Jones.

Today I’ve got a piece on the very different COVID-19 outbreaks of the Padres and Yankees, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/even-amid-vaccinations-outbreaks-on-padres…

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week, I wrote about Max Scherzer’s pursuit of 3,000 strikeouts, and who might be next https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-and-the-coming-wave-of-3000-s…

The scourge of the runner-on-second extra innings rule https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-runner-on-second-in-extras-rule-has-wo…

And yet another Byron Buxton injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-lose-byron-buxton-again-but-thei…

Jay Jaffe: Anywho, let’s get the show on the road…

Hmmm: Why do teams like the Marlins, Cardinals, and Nats get games postponed due to outbreaks while the Padres are forced to play with a AAA squad? Anti-Padre bias?

Jay Jaffe: The difference, as I noted in today’s piece, is that the vast majority of the Padres (and also the Yankees) are vaccinated and thus there’s far less fear of a team-wide outbreak, whereas that wasn’t the case even for the Nationals in April. It’s actually a bit messed up when you think about the possibility of *dis*incentivizing vaccinations, but that’s not to say that the league wouldn’t have nudged the Padres to play if they were really lagging behind

MLB The Shohei: Cilantro/onion or lettuce/tomato/cheese?

Jay Jaffe: In this case, cilantro and onion — i have a nice little authentic Mexican deli near me that I’ve been hitting up for 13 years now

Jay Jaffe: not that there’s a damn thing wrong with the lettuce/tomato/cheese option either. I’m just as happy to do a hard shell taco kit from the grocery store as I am to hit up the authentic places

Curtis: How will Miguel Cabrera’s career in baseball end?  Seems like we’re drawing near….  sad to see the fade out of Pujols and Cabrera but I get trying to play until they tell you that you can’t

Jay Jaffe: Man, right now it is looking Not Good at All. He’s chasing the dual milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 homers — would become the first player to attain both this year — except that he’s hitting for a 62 wRC+ and i swear might be LOSING hits off his total.

Wrote about his Opening Day homer and it’s been skis straight downhill since https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miguel-cabreras-snow-doubt-home-run-and-cl…

Mork Borg: If Chris Sale hits 3000 Ks, does he make the hall of fame?  I feel like he’s the forgotten *ace* of the last decade, behind Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander.

Jay Jaffe: That’s going to be very interesting to see. In a wave of 3,000 strikeout pitchers, will the achievement be devalued, as 500 homers has been (granted there’s a big difference in terms of that one)?

Jay Jaffe: Sale’s peak score (WAR7) is ~equal of Sabathia’s (39.5), and 3,000 plus a Cy and a ring (not to minimize a whole lot of otoher cool stuff) is probably going to be enough for CC to get in

Jay Jaffe: But as we’ve seen, only one pitcher has come back from TJ to wind up in the Hall, John Smoltz. The longevity is hard to achieve even with the bionic arm

MLB The Shohei: Why didn’t anyone tell me that Evan Longoria has ~55 War? Is he a sneaky hall candidate?

Jay Jaffe: Longoria’s at 56.6/41.9/49.3 which puts him 18th in JAWS. His problem is that everybody above him who’s not in — Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Buddy Bell, even Sal Bando — has a stronger case beyond just the WAR, so I think he’ll need a big hook to get voters to come around on him.

Jay Jaffe: Like, key player on a World Series winner or something.

Derek: Given the league’s apparent willingness to give (the increasingly vaccinated) teams more leeway to play through Covid outbreaks, is there any chance we see the 7-inning doubleheader rule go away mid-season? I suspect it’s more likely that it sticks around permanently, but a guy can dream…

Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical about the league changing rules in midseason, last year’s counterexamples regarding the playoff format and introduction of the 2×7 doubleheader notwithstanding.

Kate: So what defense does MLB possibly have in this grievance considering they themselves offered to play more games than the 60 that were eventually played?  How can they say they attempted to play the most games possible?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a damn good question. And while it’s reasonable to hope that they lose the grievance because screw the billionaires I think it exists more as a leverage play in CBA negotiations than something that’s likely to drag out to its conclusion ‚ which as we saw with the Kris Bryant grievance could take years.

Toshi: Who among current active players is the biggest freak?  Trout? Ohtani? Or someone else?  Thanks.

Jay Jaffe: i mean, there isn’t anybody alive who’s seen a player combine hitting and pitching skill the way that Ohtani is right now.

Which reminds me, RIP Norman Lloyd, whom I loved in St. Elsewhere. Just thinking about this tweet makes me dizzy

RJ: Jay, I know this is a stupid question. We all know Pujols is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t want to discredit that. His career just fascinates me, with how he just really fell off a cliff and has been replacement level for 5 years and well below that the last 5. Does his career change or alter discussion many may have about players who didn’t nearly touch the peaks of Pujols, but were “very good” and never saw such a decline in their tenure? I don’t know. I know this is not-specific and really unrelated to your ballot specifically. I’m just curious if a player being an all-time great for ten years and …..not that for ten years, if it makes you think

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i don’t think it really has a ton of impact on my thoughts, particularly because the objective numbers — whether we’re talking about 3000+ hits and 667 homers or nearly 100 WAR — testify to the rarefied air he reached even with a terrible half-decade and a mediocre one

Jay Jaffe: Where I can see it mattering, and have already, is the perception of Joe Mauer’s career after his move to first base. Mauer is 7th in JAWS among catchers, and 5th in peak on the basis of what he did behind the plate. All seven of his best seasons were as a catcher

Jay Jaffe: and yet, some people don’t think he’s Hallworthy

Beel: Andrew Vaughn is slashing .276/.405/.444 in May and has cut his strikeout rate from 30.9% in April to 13.5% in May, is top ten in EV and 90% percentile in walk rate. Not too early to get excited?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t go overboard yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder and maintaining a disciplined approach, very good signs

Parity: Are we going to end up with a ton of teams between 75 and 85 wins or will some finally break free from all this?

Jay Jaffe: Despite their sluggish starts I do think we’ll see the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and maybe a couple other teams top 90 wins and maybe even 95, but right now our Playoff Odds project 13 teams to land in 75-85 territory, which seems high

Yikes: Offense is currently so bad that Gary Sanchez’s gross looking line is actually above average.

Jay Jaffe: saw some Yankee twitter folks arguing over this recently. .197/351/.382 is ugly but a .184 ISO and 16% walk rate goes a long way

Jay Jaffe: that line is good for a 114 wRC+

Jay Jaffe: as I said, we’re in The Year of the Pitcher 2.0

Sale: Doesn’t actually have a Cy, though!

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I am aware of that

Jay Jaffe: Neither did Mike Mussina, and neither does Schilling. That’s not what’s going to keep Sale out of the Hall I don’t think, esp with all those years getting votes (7 straight, 6 in the top 5)

Cueto’s Shimmy: Which of these Giant’s SP arms will turn back into a pumpkin by the trade deadline?

Jay Jaffe: My guess is Aaron Sanchez, due to the big drop in velocity, but he’s doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact, so…

Derek: I think it’s mostly because the situation in the NL West has largely been discussed through the lens of the Dodgers underperforming, but can we all give the Giants some more collective love? Best record in the NL and an under the radar super fun team to watch!

Jay Jaffe: Farhan Zaidi knows what the hell he’s doing, and I guess we can’t rule out that Gabe Kapler does, too

Phil Houghton: Did you get to see James Kaprielian’s start? Is there potential upside there in a former top prospect?

Jay Jaffe: I did not. Alas, the A’s are at least 4th on my West Coast depth chart for viewing behind the Dodgers, Padres, and Angels. Eric Longenhagen had him as a 40+ FV guy last year and I’d assume he’s still in that bin — that’s a guy with a major league career, and still with a chance of breaking out.

Derek: Do you believe in Benintendi’s bounceback (especially after his first week or two)? If it holds, what a strange career path already for someone who’s still only 26…

Jay Jaffe: eh, i don’t think it’s that strange. He had a terrible year that consisted of 52 PA and injuries, anybody putting much stock in that as his true level isn’t anybody worth listening to. He’s had two seasons with a 100ish wRC+ and two with a 120ish wRC+, and he’s at 110, so this is about right where he is. Which isn’t particularly remarkable in the grand scheme, but it beats washing out

MLB The Shohei: Who is your NL Central favorite right now?

Jay Jaffe: Still the Brewers, whose starting pitching leads the majors in WAR. Though it will be, uh, interesting, if the two games the unvaccinated Burnes missed (and the team lost) due to his COVID infection wind up mattering in the standings.

joe: Defensive metrics like Gleyber Torres. SSS or has he become viable there?

Jay Jaffe: SSS but so was last year’s -9 DRS/-5 UZR — it’s just that those numbers had the weight of about 800 previous innings in the red as well behind them.

Jay Jaffe: I think Torres is out of position, but I can understand the Yankees not writing him off yet

Trouble With The Curve: Clint Frazier was one of my favorite players to watch last season and it has been very sad to see him hit so poorly this year, despite all the walks. Do you see any signs for optimism for him?

Jay Jaffe: His rolling xwOBA and exit velo have been trending upwards from a very deep hole but his May numbers are worse than April. I think he needs a couple weeks in Scranton or at the alt site to reset

James: Does Yordan need to play defense to be truly elite?

Jay Jaffe: Depends. If you want to tell me he’s an elite hitter based on his 178 wRC+ over 510 PA in the past three seasons, I’d say that the numbers mostly support that assertion, though I worry about the gap between his actual and Statcast xStats. If you want to call him an elite *player* I’d probably give you a bit of pushback, though the 5.4 WAR he’s put up in that span is still pretty hefty.

I’m a bit worried about this year’s 3.0% walk rate though.

Jay Jaffe: taking a moment’s break from baseball, I’m spinning this during my chat for the second week in a row and wondering where this band has been all my life https://drycleaning.bandcamp.com/

Jay Jaffe: https://pitchfork.com/reviews/albums/dry-cleaning-new-long-leg/

Jay Jaffe: great postpunk riffs with the most deadpan female voice speaking surreal but memorable lines over the music.

Jonny: If Ohtani puts up 30 WAR as a pitcher and 30 WAR as a hitter, is he a Hall of Famer in your book?

Jay Jaffe: Yes.

Josh R: The Dodgers policy is to retire numbers only for Hall of Famers (with the exception of Jim Gilliam). Should they retire the numbers for Mike Piazza and Adrian Beltre in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: Fernando first.

Jay Jaffe: HOF-only for retired numbers is a dumb policy.

Jay Jaffe: and failing to recognizing one of the most transformative figures in franchise history is even dumber, especially when they haven’t issued #34 since he left in 1990.

Derek: Would you rather have Yasmani Grandal’s 120-ish wRC+ or Willians Astudillo’s 120-ish wRC+?

Jay Jaffe: Grandal’s, if only because his career numbers support him maintaining a 120 wRC+ even if it’s very differently shaped than .130/384/.333

James: What should the Astros do in CF? Pretty glaring hole in an otherwise stacked lineup.

Jay Jaffe: How’s Cesar Cedeño doing?

Jay Jaffe: Kenny Lofton: full circle?

Jay Jaffe: Jimmy Wynn: possible reanimation? Check with the tech guys.

Jay Jaffe: They’re gonna need to find an upgrade in July if not sooner.

Nostradamus: Prediction time: Albert will/will not be a 1st ballot guy, and degree of confidence you have in your will/will not choice.

Jay Jaffe: will, and I have 99% confidence in that.

Nostradamus: Mike and Adrian are both going into the Hall anyway. And really, why should the Dodgers retire Adrian’s number? Did most of his HoF work post-Dodgers.

Jay Jaffe: a fair point and there was a lot of rancor when Piazza left

Derek: Do you play fantasy baseball at all? If not, have you in the past and when/why did you stop?

Jay Jaffe: The last season I did fantasy (5×5) was I think 2010, in a Dodger Thoughts league that I won. By that point, i’d grown to dislike it, even though I was doing some fantasy writing as well. I did Scoresheet for a few years after. It felt liberating to give both of those up, mainly because I’d get so busy with work that I’d forget to tend to my team. That’s not a fun way to go about it

Mork Borg: Are the Red Sox actually good?  The playoff odds are going up, but I can’t tell if that’s just because they’ve banked wins or if their baseline has changed.

Jay Jaffe: Their odds have gone up and those of the Yankees have come down. The two teams were a projected 10 wins apart on Opening Day, and they’re now 6 apart (+2 Red Sox, -2 Yankees) https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2021-05-14&dateD…

Isolated Thinker: If you had to designate an era after the Modern Baseball Era (1970-87) and move up the Today’s Game Era, where would the line be drawn after 1988?  Is it around now with the rule changes?

Jay Jaffe: I think we could go with the Statcast Era (2015 on) because at some point soon we’ll have some kind of Statcast inputs for WAR.

Mr. Burrito: Year of Pitcher 2.0 might require a response, a la the mound change of 1969…. Thoughts on what that change should be in 2022?

Jay Jaffe: I mean, they’re looking at the mound distance change in the Atlantic League in the second half of this season, and no-shift rules in Double-A. I don’t think it would happen so quickly that either rule would be in place in MLB for 2022, but 2023? We might be heading that direction if these rules catch on.

Cool Papa Bell: What are the Padres doing with Lamet? Why didn’t they stretch him out in rehab games first?

Jay Jaffe: I have really not understood their approaches with Clevinger and Lamet. People scratch their heads over the way the Mets have dealt with deGrom lately but this… is weirder and it seems less protective and productive

B: How about making the baseball larger?  Would that make the game more hitter-friendly?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect the first thing we’ll see change-wise before the rules I mentioned is another stab at the properties of the ball. MLB has already shown its willingness to do it whether it’s above the radar or under.

I don’t think we’ll see a change to the ball’s size unless you’re talking about caliper measures. But its properties are at up for discussion and tweaking

Rick: Minus Verdugo, how bad is Boston’s OF?

Jay Jaffe: Why can’t the Red Sox develop outfielders as good as Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, or even Andrew Benintendi?

Jay Jaffe: Franchy is a fun name to say, though. Maybe not as fun as Mookie.

Guest: I know the Twins are a disaster now but man it is absolutely nuts how Nelson Cruz is 40 years old and somehow still a monstrous hitter. Random Cruz thoughts??

Jay Jaffe: Dude can f’ing hit. Absurd barrel rates.

Go Yankees!!!!!: I’m infatuated with xERA. Would it make any kind of sense to have an xERA-based pitcher WAR?

Jay Jaffe: Well, you’d want to strip out the “earned” because you’re going to address the impact of defense more completely, but I can imagine somebody whipping it up

Gaslamp Gary: When will we acknowledge that Jake Cronenworth is a top 10 second baseman?

Jay Jaffe: Who’s saying “we” haven’t? I mean, he was among the Top 10 Right Now on MLB Network this year, not that I was part of that process. Or anything the network has done recently. (cough, cough).

glt4dc: The White Sox have the best record in baseball (at the 20% point of the season) despite some serious injuries AND Tony LaRussa as manager.  Which is a way of asking – how much do managers matter?  Or, even if you think LaRussa was not a good hire (I certainly didn’t understand it at the time), how much does a “bad” manager choice impact a team.  I’ve seen variants of this question asked here before and no one seems to have a real way of capturing the value-added (value-subtracted?) of a manager.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a challenge people have been reckoning with for longer than the 150 years that LaRussa has been alive.

Jay Jaffe: One thing that’s helpful in managing is to have an utterly crap set of teams in the same division.

Jay Jaffe: Which in this case is an indictment of the Tigers and Twins, since the Royals are at least trending upward and the Indians have proven at least somewhat resilient despite their curious choice to go with an outfield that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat

Curtis: What’s your favorite on-the-field moment of the 2021 season thus far?

Jay Jaffe: Ohtani’s first start, when he hit the homer and threw 101

Joseph: Prediction for ROS Yermin Mercedes slash line?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe a bit above our Depth Charts projection for .269/.326/.446

Gaslamp Gary: Please tell me Blake Snell will be fine

Jay Jaffe: He’ll be fine if he stops walking 15% of the batters he’s facing

Guest: From your perspective, what should the Mets have done differently with deGrom? One can say that they should have put him on the IL immediately after the first missed start feels like revisionist history, but that discounts the fact that the MRI (which he got immediately) didn’t show anything and he said he was feeling ready to go. This isn

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t say I had any objection to the Mets’ handling of deGrom. My impulse would have been to cool him off on the 10-day the first time something cropped up, but they did skip his turn, which means we’re haggling over a couple of extra days. This is not a beef.

Jed: When should the Cubs throw in the towel and start trading their short term assets?

Jay Jaffe: July. Nobody’s going to start breaking up a roster in mid-May.

Matt VW: Every time Franchy comes to bat, I imagine someone in the stands saying “show-dair? Show-dair? It’s CHOW-DAH! SAY IT!”

Jay Jaffe: I legitimately LOLed.

Jonny: Which moving the mound farther back or lowering it further have basically the same effects as each other or different effects?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’ve concluded that moving it back further will have greater impact, as it addresses pitch velocity, which has measurably increased on a near-annual basis for over a decade https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0…

Lance: Once Gleyber returns, do you have any optimism for him reaching 2018-19 levels of production?

Jay Jaffe: Not in this offensive environment.

Joey Bagadonuts: Best rookie OF rest-of-season: Jarren Duran, Jesus Sanchez, Brandon Marsh? Both in terms of playing time and quality?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not holding my breath on any of them having a significant MLB impact this year, but I’m also not the guy to ask. Was nice to see that Marsh — the highest rated of the bunch, by far — returned from his shoulder injury and homered, so I guess I’d say him.

Nick T: Hey Jay, how would you go about answering the question “is my team hitting bad, or are they just running into great pitching all the time?”

Jay Jaffe: Does Baseball Prospectus still do the opponent quality metrics or did that get folded into DRC+? Those were useful. I suspect peeking at DRC+ would be useful, if so.

Kluber: Are you surprised there indeed seems to be something left in there?

Jay Jaffe: Not incredibly surprised but I also think the numbers have looked better than the performance, his dominating start against the Tigers notwithstanding. He’s not as sharp nor is his stuff as good as it was in Cleveland

Giants fan: Is Posey’s resurgence legiy?

Jay Jaffe: I assume you mean legit, and i think so. Great to see him healthy and raking again

Orioles2023: Jay, you’re “must read” for me and always enjoy the chats.  No question, just wanted to say “thanks!”

Jay Jaffe: Thanks so much for the kind words! I’m truly a lucky guy to get to do this for my day job.

Jay Jaffe: On that note, it is quittin’ time for this here chat. Not sure what the next few weeks hold — my parents are coming to visit next Friday, so I’ll be seeing them for the first time in 15 1/2 months, and the week after that I’ll definitely be out. Might look into scheduling an alternate day if I can’t swing this Friday. Stay tuned, stay safe, and thanks for stopping by!