Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/7/18

Jay Jaffe: Hey gang, it’s that time again! First off, thanks to reader GELB, whose question last week prompted me to write about José Ramiréz and the greatest 3B seasons ever, not to mention the folly of the 10-WAR pace https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-ramirez-and-the-greatest-third-ba…. I always come out of here with an idea or two for the next week, which is great.

Second, I’ve got vacation on my mind, as this is my last chat before embarking up on a trip up to Cape Cod, and it can’t come soon enough. I’ll be chatting from there next week, but the following week, I’ll be en route to Denver for the FanGraphs staff throwdown and reader meet-up (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-meetup-denver-june-22/), so if you’re in the area, do come by for some beers. And with that, we’re off and running…

Nick Senzel: When do I come up?

Jay Jaffe: I get asked this every. single. week. My guess is sometime after the Super Two date, whenever that is, and given his vertigo issues I don’t see the need for the rush. It’s not going to change the arc of the Reds’ season, though.

Matt: In the Koufax vs Kershaw debate, I got to thinking about innings. Does JAWS to anything to account for the fact that, for example Koufax’s environment allowed him more opportunities to accumulate WAR that Kershaw’s environment? Kershaws peak 7 will never match Koufax’s (even without injury) because Koufax had more IP in which to accumulate WAR. Or is that a part of Koufax’s intrinsic value over Kershaw’s?

Jay Jaffe: WAR is something of a counting stat, and Kershaw (61.9/49.6/55.8, 50th among SP) has actually already passed Koufax (49.0/46.1/47.5, 88th) on both the career and peak levels, because he’s had more good, healthy seasons.

If I ever do The Cooperstown Casebook, Volume 2 — and I’ve got a rough outline — I’ll probably lead with a chapter called What We Talk About When We Talk About Sandy Koufax. People tend to forget that his peak was very short, even by Hall standards. Even in his run of five straight ERA titles from 1962-66, he made fewer than 30 starts in two of those seasons due to injuries, and once you let some of the air out of his stats with park adjustment he doesn’t fare remarkably well via WAR/JAWS. And of course none of that incorporates his postseason work, which is one of the main reasons for his popularity, and rightly so.

Jay Jaffe: Kershaw hasn’t got the postseason part of the resumé down, and that’s always going to be something  that a certain segment of the public holds against him, but his body of elite regular-season work is already larger and better than Koufax’s.

Jay Jaffe: Now, in general, there’s the issue of 21st century pitcher workloads not matching up to those of previous eras, and that’ s gonna be something that Hall voters will need to start addressing in the next few years…. (/rant)

James: Do the Angels need to change how they use Ohtani to maximize their potential? Even as a rival fan it is tough to watch Scioscia send Pujols and Kinsler out at the top of the order while Ohatni sits a third of the time.

Jay Jaffe: I think they can push Ohtani harder as far as DH duty goes, but given his blister issues and workload concerns, I don’t see them pushing him harder on the mound.  Scioscia needs to bat Kinsler much lower in the lineup, and Arte needs to authorize Pujols’ release, but those are separate issues from Ohtani’s usage.

Slurve: Which player has improved his HOF chances the most in the past couple of years?

Jay Jaffe: Ichrio and Beltre (3,000 hits), Votto (topping the 1B peak standard), Mauer (getting past 2,000 hits), Trout (already past the JAWS standard at CF) and Kershaw (the latter getting to 10 years last season was big)

Anon: I can’t believe I’m writing this, but is it possible 27 year old Manny Banuelos is a prospect again?

Jay Jaffe: My lord, he still has his rookie status intact according to B-Ref. He’s whiffed 29% of hitters in 60 innings at OKC. The Dodgers ought to give him a look given the shape of their bullpen.

Kevin: Are the Astros lack of luck unprecedented? Don’t think I’ve seen a team 7 games worse than their pythag this early in the season before.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have any historical data to support or refute that, but their 4-12 record in one-run games and the Mariners’ 18-9 record in same is the big reason why Seattle is a game ahead in the AL West despite a run differential that’s nearly 100 runs smaller (+118 to +21)

Seth Beer, Batter: Is Max Scherzer an eventual HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: His counting stats aren’t there yet, but the three Cy Youngs and the dominance are going to make it awfully hard not to elect him if he sticks around for a few more years

Justin: How much better are the Yankees if Sonny Gray is apparently good now (5 of his last 7 starts have been good or very good)?

Jay Jaffe: Gray’s performance is hugely important to the Yankees right now given the state of their rotation and the eventuality of them trading for a pitcher in July. He could be the difference between Cashman swallowing hard and agreeing to trade a guy like Frazier or Andujar for a bigger ticket pitcher than they might otherwise look to acquire.

Anon: Will the HOF ever get its house in order and let the right players in?  (Bonds, etc.)

Jay Jaffe: I still believe Bonds and Clemens get in by the end of their 10-year runs on the BBWAA ballot (2022). but we’ll be debating about “the right players” until the end of time itself.

JS: What are the Nats going to do with their outfield logjam? They can’t send Soto back to the minors, can they?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a good question. and I don’t really know the answer except to say that we could see some interesting mixing and matching. Eaton back in center? Taylor in the minors (he has one option remaining)? Goodwin DFA’d (he’s out of options)? they might have to send Soto down just to alleviate a short-term crunch, but I can’t see that lasting long.

Dan: Jay Jaffe: Coming into the year, i’d have placed Freeman just outside the group of Goldschmidt/Rizzo/Votto. I’m not sure than 1/4 season is a big enough sample size to dramatically alter that except to say that I’m fine including him in the top four.

This is from a chat a few weeks ago, and I need to tell you how wrong you were. Freeman is very clearly better than Rizzo and, based on the below numbers, 1/4 of another season IS enough to say he is the best in baseball. Slash lines and WAR/162 games for the past three seasons (2016-2018) through mid-May:

Freeman: .304/.401/.576/.977, 6.8
Goldschmidt: .287/.398/.506/.904, 5.9
Votto: .319/.441/.549/.990, 5.8
Rizzo: .274/.380/.509/.890, 4.7

Give Freeman his due credit! (I named my puppy Freddie, after all).

Jay Jaffe: Freeman’s having a strong season while Goldschmidt and Rizzo have struggled. We could sit here all day and look at splits that favor any of them, but I’ll concede the larger point that it’s a four-player race that includes Freeman — whose time lost to injury figured into his exclusion from my previous measures — as well.

Alp: Just read Buster Olney’s piece on having 4 pitchers per game at a maximum. Have you read it, and if so, your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: Haven’t read it yet and no, it’s not going to happen (a pitcher per game limit, not me eventually reading the piece). You can huff paint thinner or glue and throw crazy ideas against the wall all day long about how to “fix” baseball and none of it means a damn thing if you don’t get the players’ union to buy into it, and they have no incentive to make a wholesale jobs sacrifice like that.

DBRuns: Jay, as a lifelong Cleveland Indians fan, I have to say Corey Kluber is probably my favorite player to ever wear an Indians uniform. What does he have to do the rest of his career to have a good shot at making the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Given his age (32) and progress to date (31.6/ 32.1/ 31.9 vs. 73.4/50.1/61.8 for the standard), I’d say he faces a significantly uphill battle. He’s really only got three HOF-caliber seasons (~6 bWAR or better) on his resume, four if he can maintain his current excellence, and he’s less than halfway to 200 wins (85) and 3,000 strikeouts (1,296). Longevity and a third Cy Young are necessities, and he’s gonna have to more than double his innings total (1,182.2) — you have to be Pedro Martinez or maybe Roy Halladay to get in with fewer than 3,000 IP.

v2micca: Speaking of Max Scherzer, has he officially taken the top starting pitcher crown from Kershaw?

Jay Jaffe: I had him ahead of Kershaw at the beginning of the year. My last big project at Sports Illustrated was contributing to their Top 100 players project, and I won that argument while losing the one to have Mookie Betts ahead of Kris Bryant https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/15/top-100-players-top-10-mike-trout-jo…

Pd: Who’s the best player with two first names? Frank Thomas?

Jay Jaffe: Babe Ruth?

Zach: What kind of package do you think Machado fetches if moved at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: A big one with a nice bow…

Man, I don’t really don’t know, especially because it’s the Orioles, who have a very weird owner and a very weird GM. The framework I would think about is something like a top 20 prospect, a top 50-75 prospect, and a lottery ticket-type prospect. You can adjust those rankings based on your own guesses, but I see this as a 1 from Column A, 1 from Column B, 1 from Column C type deal.

All Cats Are Beautiful : How was Kenny Lofton’s HOF case?  (I know it’s not gonna happen.)

Jay Jaffe: WAR’s been tweaked a bit since and Lofton has been passed in the rankings by Trout and Beltran, but here’s what I had in 2013. I have a Casebook-ready revision to that which I sacrificed for space because he won’t be eligible on the Whatever Committee ballot until 2023.  https://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2012/12/17/jaws-and-the-2013-hall-o…

Ted: How can the Yankees find ABs for Clint Frazier on a consistent basis? It won’t be easy but keeping him down is just getting absurd at this point

Jay Jaffe: The path to playing time in 2018 is either an injury or a trade involving Brett Gardner or Aaron Hicks. I’d place the odds much more on injury than a trade, at least before October.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I assume you’re watching baseball on the Cape? Favorite ballpark? (The right answer is Orleans.)

Jay Jaffe: I’ve only been to one Cape Cod League game, and that was, I think, Brewster. I believe Orleans is in the plans this year as we’re up there longer and will have more flexibility.

Parts + Gleyber: Is Hanley secretly injured? I know there’s not a robust market for players in his situation, but for league minimum I didn’t think he’d be out of a job this long.

Jay Jaffe: The guy has zero defensive value and a vesting option. At the very least, he probably won’t be signed until it’s clear that he won’t reach the option even with regular playing time for the rest of the year, because nobody wants to deal with the headaches such a controversy would entail.

The other part of the issue is that the teams with the worst DH production are ones that aren’t contenders anyway, at least not anymore. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&…

Aaron: Is Miguel Sano going to eat his way out of ever signing a deal longer than 1 year?

Jay Jaffe: Right now it looks like he’s not-hitting his way out of an extension (84 wRC+) though it’s fair to wonder how much that shin injury has affected him.

Bob Tufts: Player revenue share has fallen since 2004. Part of next  CBA or did they miss the boat on MLBAM /streaming success?

Jay Jaffe: If this is the real Bob Tufts, I’m sure you know more about the issue than I do given your career.

Based on the publicly available numbers such as there (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mlbpa-has-a-problem/), it appears that the player revenue share has indeed been falling, but that particular method of determining the revenue share has been disputed for awhile by the MLBPA brass. I do think MLBAM will be an issue in the next CBA, but it’s just one of many

John: Why are the Jays hurting my heart with Vlad?

Jay Jaffe: Because we probably aren’t past the Super Two date yet

Tom: I was under the impression Hanley’s vesting option no longer existed once he was released?

Jay Jaffe: It appears you could be right, according to this Evan Drellich tweet

. If that’s the case, my bad.

Al: over or under Gregory Polanco hits 20 HR This year

Jay Jaffe: He’s got eight but man, he’s fallen far since I looked at him in mid-April… when he had 5. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-pirates-have-some-hope/ I’ll still take the over but he’s got to get it together.

Dansby Samsonite: Do you have thoughts on Alderson’s recent interview? He seemed to explicitly say it’s ok to be just ok.

Jay Jaffe: I like Alderson a lot but I think that reflects the views of his employer as much as anything. Let’s not forget that the Wilpons operate the Mets as though they’re on the edge of poverty. Can you see them volunteering to withstand a couple 100-loss seasons at the gate?

Bo: Is Bryce pressing too much because he’s seeing less strikes? What should his approach be, just take more walks?

Jay Jaffe: I think Harper’s big problem is that he’s pulling the ball with increasing frequency, and thus being shifted against more, and it’s working. Wrote about it the other day. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce-harpers-shifting-approach/

Pad Squad: What’s the better Padres outfield: 2019’s Myers, Margot, Renfroe/Cordero OR 2023’s Tirso Ornelas, Buddy Reed, Jeisson Rosario?

Jay Jaffe: is this Riley Breckenridge or David Roth? I have literally never heard of the latter guys and can only presume you’re making them up.

More to the point, I’m not a prospect expert. Sorry.

Stevil: Would it make some sense for the Mariners to have Cano start preparing to take 1B once his hand is healed? He would have plenty of time to get prepared before his suspension is lifted.

Jay Jaffe: It might make sense but in-season position switches are tough to pull off under the best of circumstances, and these are not the best of circumstances Among other things, Cano wants to surpass Jeff Kent’s career HR record for a second baseman (351) — or so I’ve read.

Pd: What does Buster Posey need to do to become a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: Surpass 2,000 hits (he’s only at 1,219). He’s got the hardware and the peak WAR

Scott: The death of Red Schoendienst raised an interesting question: how do you count individuals who straddled the line, especially as a player and a manager? The division seems much stronger now, but it wasn’t always the case. Frank Chance is below JAWS average as a player, but his Cubs average 100 wins over his managerial tenure, Jimmy Collins is not the best third basemen in the Hall, but managed the first World Series champs.

Jay Jaffe: Credit for managing is a black box when it comes to Hall voting. Chance and Red and Collins are all in the Hall as players despite their managerial contributions, but Joe Torre, who had a better playing career than just about any of them according to WAR and JAWS, is in as a manager. The effort to elect Gil Hodges depends on applying a massive amount of credit for the Mets’ 1969 championship, but obviously that’s fallen short.

In short, Cooperstown is a land of contrasts.

Abreu: That 1B comparison up there has me feeling a little unappreciated over here

Jay Jaffe: it’s all about your lack of defensive value, my dude. You’ve got 2 seasons of 4+ WAr under your belt out of 5 (if we’re prorating this one), and that doesn’t cut it for the upper tier.

julioooo: When do the Dodgers jettison Forsythe? He has been putrid.

Jay Jaffe: Sometime in July, All-Star break if not the deadline.

Dave: Is Felix Hernandez a HOFer? Or will he be a one and done like Cone and Saberhagen?

Jay Jaffe: This year’s 5.33 ERA ain’t helping his cause https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-king-felix-reach-cooperstown/

True and Correct: Trade Andujar ? haha. Seriously, have you watched him this year ? Andujar and Torres better be untouchable, which I believe they are

Jay Jaffe: My dude, I watch most Yankees games. And I am impressed by Andujar’s bat, but also concerned by his glove, and the small-sample metrics are brutal. I’m not saying the Yankees are definitely going to trade him, or that they have to, but he’s not the untouchable commodity that Torres is. Trading him is one of many options given the multitude of bodies they have in their infield picture and their needs if they’re to convert this roster into a championship in the near term.

James: Who will be the first pitcher in the HOF without the traditional counting benchmarks? A lot of today’s aces won’t even make 150 wins

Jay Jaffe: and a lot of today’s aces won’t make it to Cooperstown. Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer are the guys with the best shots, maybe CC, and all of them have cleared 150 except for Clayton.

OK folks, some unexpected child care duty has reared its head so I’m going to have to bow out now. Thanks for stopping by! I’ll yak atcha next week from Wellfleet.