Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/23/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks! Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of today’s chat. I’m hunched over a laptop as I write this, because for the second time within a month, my desktop computer (late 2014 27” iMac) has been sidelined by some kind of corrupted hard drive. The first time was on July 31; thankfully, this isn’t as high-stress a situation, but it’s a pain in the ass nonetheless. Apologies if bad ergonomics lead me to throw in the towel early today.

12:02
Rollie’s Mustache: Some smart people (like Jim Callis) are already predicting Vlad Jr to be a future HOF. Doesn’t that seem slightly irresponsible? Bryce Harper, for example, would need to average almost 4.5 WAR for the next 10 years to match the average HOF right fielder’s career WAR of 72.7. Entirely possible he does, but it’s not a given. And averaging 30 HR for the next decade leaves him short of 500. So if one of the most hyped prospects *ever* in Harper isn’t a lock seven years into his career, shouldn’t we exercise a bit more caution with a 19 year old likely to be a DH long-term?

12:08
Jay Jaffe: To an extent that’s half-comical and half-criminal, the Blue Jays seem to be doing everything they can to avoid calling up Vlad Jr. this year. Dude has hit .390/.447/.649, mostly in the upper minors, yet somehow he’s not ready for prime time because reasons.

I do think it’s perfectly reasonable to have reservations on Vlad Jr.’s path given the likelihood that he’s going to wind up on the left end of the defensive spectrum, but as I wrote in connection to Ronald Acuña, players who debut in the majors younger than 21 historically have a very high rate of making the Hall of Fame https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance…. For a player getting 1 PA in his age-19 season, it’s 10.5%, and at 100 PA, it’s 24%. At age 20, the numbers are 9.2% and 19%. The reality is that if you’re good enough to play in the majors at such a young age, you’re a major talent, but yes, it’s too early to start forging that plaque in Cooperstown.

12:08
Phil: Will Mike Mussina’s election hopefully either next year or 2020, help to “reset”, at least somewhat, the requirements for a SP to make the HOF? I mean, amazingly, his was still probably better than every current pitcher’s resume except Kershaw, but it feels like he could make a noticeable difference for guys like Verlander and Sabathia.

12:11
Jay Jaffe: Whether it’s next year or not (he’s on the writers’ ballot until 2023, not that I think it will take that long), Mussina’s election along with those of the late Roy Halladay (eligible this winter) and, eventually, Curt Schilling (if his mouth doesn’t set him back again) will help to define a more 21st-century oriented standard for Hall of Fame pitchers, but even then, there’s a break between them and the players we’re seeing today (Verlander et al) as far as the changing conditions.

12:11
CamdenWarehouse: congratulations on new addition. what’s Sandy’s JAWS score?

12:13
Jay Jaffe: Thanks! She’s off to a great start. Her Puppy JAWS is strong, but in addition to learning the housebreaking stuff she’s still learning what can and can’t be chewed upon. Gonna take awhile.

12:13
Hello: What do you think the Mets should do at catcher for 2019?

12:17
Jay Jaffe: As the Mets’ first manager, Casey Stengel said, “You gotta have a catcher or you’re gonna have a lot of passed balls.”

the oft-injured Travis d’Arnaud still has one more year of arbitration eligibility, so unless he’s non-tendered, he’ll probably be in the mix. Yasmani Grandal is probably the top free agent catcher, but there’s no earthly reason for him to choose the Mets. Wilson Ramos, Martin Maldonado, Jonathan Lucroy and Nick Hundley are some other free agent catchers. Not necessarily good ones (except Ramos), but that’s the class the Mets have put themselves in.

12:18
Scott: Which right fielders has a better HOF chance Mookie Betts or Bryce Harper?

12:21
Jay Jaffe: they’re both in their age-25 season. Betts has the edge in bWAR, 31.6 to 28.6, but Harper is further along in the counting stats, and he already has an MVP on the mantel. I’d say it’s a toss-up right now.

12:21
Stuart: Thoughts on Lemahieu ROS?

12:23
Jay Jaffe: If you’re a Rockies position player and you’re not named Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story or (I guess, if we’re overemphasizing one single season of awful defensive metrics) Charlie Blackmon, you should be left by the curb to be carted away by a less discerning team.

12:25
Christian : Any news if Gio Gonzales went through waivers yet? He seems like the only palatable starter that may make it through waivers.

12:28
Jay Jaffe: I don’t know this for a fact but I *suspect* he was placed on waivers at the same time Adams, Murphy and Harper were but that he went unclaimed, meaning that he can be traded anywhere before August 31. He’d be an upgrade for some contenders, such as the Brewers. [Post-chat note: he has cleared as of today https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/nationals-trade-rumors-gio-gonzalez-clears-waivers.html]

That reminds me, i’ve got a thing on the rotations of contenders, tied to ROS projections, that is supposed to go up on ESPN Insider today. If you have a subscription, check it out.

12:29
J: Can teams still exploit the K-Rod loophole for playoff eligibility? For example, can the Yankees replace Montgomery on the playoff roster with someone like Justus Sheffield, even though Montgomery is already on the 60 day DL and Sheffield might not pitch before September 1?

12:31
Jay Jaffe: IIRC, the rule now is that you just have to be on the 40-man roster before the clock strikes September 1, not on the 25-man roster

12:32
Bread Gardner: How much stock do you put in the analyses over at Hall of Stats?  I find them to be a good stats-only benchmark for HOF eligibility.

12:34
Jay Jaffe: I have great respect for Adam’s work there, but I don’t adhere to it. There’s more to a Hall of Fame case than just what he can capture in his measures, just as there is more than can be captured by JAWS. Any HOF metric should be used as a starting point for a deeper discussion.

12:34
GSon: Your opinion please.. The Wild Card play in game is the second most exciting day in the baseball season (second to the winning game of the world series).. Do you believe this to be true? Do you want MLB to keep it as a “Win or Go Home” Game” and do you agree.. if you don’t want to face a win or go home game..win more games in the regular season?

12:36
Jay Jaffe: I’m pro-Wild Card game. Don’t really care if a 110-win team winds up there if they didn’t win the division; that’s the price you pay. I wouldn’t be opposed to an idea that somebody put out there (Travis Sawchik I think) about requiring the lower-seeded WC team to beat the higher-seeded one twice, but the higher seed needing only to win once.

12:36
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: 50, 100 years from now, what do you think the legacy of Barry Bonds or the other steroid era sluggers will be?

12:38
Jay Jaffe: 50-100 years from now, when genetic enhancement is commonplace (at least among those who can afford it), people will look back and wonder what the fuss  was about with regards to the steroid era.

12:42
Andrew: Jeff McNeil is now 100 PA’s in and has over 140 wRC+. Is there any chance he can be a pre-breakout Daniel Murphy–high average, low K, low BB, and some doubles power?

12:45
Jay Jaffe: I’m pretty skeptical about 26-year-old players getting their first taste of MLB action, esp. when they didn’t make a comparatively lousy farm system’s top 30 prospects at the outset of the season. I don’t see any harm in the Mets taking a look at him as this current garbage fire burns down to the embers, but I wouldn’t expect more out of him than something between a usable bench guy who’s not good enough to start and a Quad-A guy.

12:45
Pitch_Out: Better mustache: you or cistulli?

12:46
Jay Jaffe: come on, It would be weird if I chose Carson’s.

12:46
lOsing Season: bigger impact for a contender rest of year: mccutchen or holliday?

12:46
Jay Jaffe: Cutch, as he’s still an adequate defender in a corner.

12:47
Whitty: With how starting pitchers are used in the modern game, JAWS isn’t kind to even the best pitchers in this generation (sans Kershaw). For example, Verlander and Greinke, who are both generally considered future hall of famers, are 62nd and 46th respectively in JAWS. While both are above HOF standards, it seems almost impossible for any pitcher going forward to ever break into the top 20 or so of SP’s of all time due purely to volume of usage. So my question I guess is, do you think going forward JAWS will remain as the one of the best ways to evaluate and rank starting pitchers in a historical context?

12:49
Jay Jaffe: I’ve touched upon this in articles about Roy Halladay and Johan Santana (both before I left SI), Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander here, and maybe I’m forgetting a couple. Ultimately, I think the Sabathia-Verlander generation whose entire careers hail from the 21st century, or at least the wild card era, will be judged more in comparison to each other than to what the Lefty Groves or even the Madduxes and Glavines did.

12:50
Andrew: Does deGrom have any shot at the HOF? He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league since his debut. Assuming the wheels don’t fall off going forward, what would we need to see for him to have a chance?

12:56
Jay Jaffe: That he didn’t get his first taste of the majors until his age-26 seasons suggests a serious uphill climb ahead. He’s at 23.6 WAR at age 30 and has just two 5.0 bWAR seasons under his belt. He’s going to need to win multiple Cys to have a chance.

Max Scherzer, whose ticket to Cooperstown rests on his multiplicity of awards to a greater extent than any other current starter except maybe Kluber, had 30.7 bWAR through age 30 and had already banked a Cy with two other top-five finishes. Kluber, who’s probably the better comp (didn’t catch on until age 26 either), had only 19.6 bWAR through age 30 but one Cy and a top-three finish.  He’s still miles behind the Kershaw/Verlander/Greinke/Sabathia/Scherzer/Felix pack in JAWS.

12:57
Brian Snits: Flowers and Suzuki are both free agents and are both better than most of the catchers you listed as possibilities for the Mets.

12:57
Jay Jaffe: Suzuki is a terrible pitch framer but yes, they’re both options, and I meant to mention Flowers.

12:59
Bob: RE: Mets catcher – Kevin Plawecki has been significantly better than the Lucroy/Maldonado/Hundley poopoo platter over the past couple years.  Why would he not be the starter by default?

1:02
Jay Jaffe: Kevin Plawecki has provided league-average bat work in limited duty over the past couple of seasons, but he’s a below-average framer, average defender. I’m skeptical he’d be a first-division regular but if you’re looking to put the Meh in Mets, he’s certainly a guy who exists.

1:03
Mountie Votto: You buying the Reds’ new strategy of playing guys all over the place to get bats in the lineup or is it just late-season nonsense to get guys like Peraza and Gennett some rest?

1:04
Jay Jaffe: Versatility is the new black, and the Reds have absolutely nothing to lose by trying this.

1:04
Bear: What do you think about Zobrist’s case? Does he get a bump from his uncanny ability to let teams get the most out of the rest of their bench while also being one of the best players in the league for four or five solid years?

1:09
Jay Jaffe: It’s very tough to capture that kind of value Zobrist has beyond noting that winning teams want that guy, and so he’s played in seven postseasons (albeit with pretty mediocre numbers outside of his 2016 WS MVP award) and won two rings.

I don’t think Zobrist will have a strong HOF case. He’s 37, has a 40.4 peak WAR (average is 44.5) and 42.5 JAWS (average is 57.0). He’s not as good a candidate by advanced stats as Utley or Pedrioa will be. He has fewer than 1,500 hits, so it’s an open question as to whether he gets to 2,000 and avoids being completely dismissed as a candidate no matter what the advanced metrics say (see my Rule of 2,000 article in connection to Joe Mauer).

1:10
Andy: Why do Hall of Fame Voters emphasize career hits so much? Not only is it outdated (it penalizes those who get on base via other means), but these same voters rarely care about hits on a single season basis.

1:11
Jay Jaffe: It’s a proxy for longevity, which is the primary basis on which players are elected. In the mind of too many voters, if you had fewer than 2000 hits, whether you’re Tony Oliva or Dick Allen or Minnie Minoso or Bobby Grich or Andruw Jones, you didn’t play long enough no matter what the advanced stats say.

1:12
Fahad: Would you rather fight 100 Chicken-sized Zombies or 10 Zombie-sized Chickens?

1:12
Jay Jaffe: So long as the chickens are only zombie-sized and not actual zombies, I’m fighting the 10, as they’re much easier to take out

1:13
Bo: What’s your rule of thumb regarding magic number? I personally don’t bother with them until after college football starts.

1:13
Jay Jaffe: is football still a thing? When do they play it?

1:14
Kristen: What kind of deals will the older FA SP’s like Morton and Happ get this off-season?

1:15
Jay Jaffe: I think something on an updated version of Happ’s expiring 3/$36M deal (over which he’s provided good value, in the 9-10 WAR range). Maybe 3/$45M?

1:16
Matt: Is LeMahieu really that bad? He has his limits, but he plays good defense, has a 101 wRC+ on the road, doesn’t strike out much and makes a lot of contact. Even with a stiff Coors penalty he’s projected to be worth 1.5 WAR, and he’s been at 1.9 or above each of the last 3 seasons. I feel like just about every team in baseball would want a player like that if deployed properly. What’s the knock on him that makes it so he should be left on the curb?

1:17
Jay Jaffe: entire career in COL, 90 wRC+, one season above 1.9 WAR. He’s an adequate bench or 2nd division guy, and maybe he’sa
super-duper clubhouse guy, but statistically, he’s not somebody who significantly moves a team towards winning.

1:17
GSon: 7 questions in a half hour.. as in “Animal House..”  “… a new low…, I’m so ashamed of myself…”

1:18
Jay Jaffe: Who f—ing cares? This is my chat, I’ll answer the questions at the speed and level of detail I want, and really, that’s the end of the discussion as far as I’m concerned.

1:18
Josh R: How fun and delicious would a Yankees/Astros wild card game be?

1:19
Jay Jaffe: Epic.

1:20
Mountie Votto: Say Cincinnati adds two solid but not ace starters this winter, say, Charlie Morton and Patrick Corbin. How close does that get them to contention in a tough division?

1:21
Jay Jaffe: Not nearly enough. They have one starter (Castillo) who’s been worth more than 0.9 WAR, and he’s still rather raw.

1:22
john cale: more likely HoFer…Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler?

1:22
Jay Jaffe: Kinsler, unless Elvis sticks around to reach 3,000

1:22
Brian CashGod: Dude fuck GSon. Thank you for taking the time to chat with us, I really enjoy these and I know a lot of other folks do to. Especially appreciate this week’s given the computer problem you’re having, I hope that works out OK

1:24
Jay Jaffe: Thank you!

Look, anyone who is bothered by the speed of the chat can just read the transcript later. There’s no shame in that.

1:24
squeeze bunt: Isn’t the point of these chats to drive readers toward the page?  With that “who fucking cares” answer – you just lost a reader.  For future consideration

1:25
Jay Jaffe: the point of the chats is to interact with readers. there’s a bad apple among them every now and then, and I chose to make an example of one. I’m pretty confident based on the queue that he’s the exception not the rule.

1:25
Bob: Scott Kingery…  59 OPS+ at age 24.  I can’t think of someone that bad at that age ever turning out to be a useful major leaguer, am I wrong?

1:26
Jay Jaffe: got a similar question a couple weeks ago. Brandon Phillips is the answer

1:26
Jay Jaffe: (though I think he was younger, the question then had to do with Top X Prospect I think)

1:27
Mountie Votto: Re: Reds — even with hypothetical return to form/health from DiSclafani and a step forward from Tyler Mahle? Trying to remain optimistic in the face of a meddling owner and a brutal division haha

1:28
Jay Jaffe: That’s a whole lot to bank upon. Basically, the Reds need Castillo to turn into an ace, come up with a legitimate 2 or 3 starter, and then fill in from outside.

1:28
stever20: Dodgers, do you think they can recover or are they surprisingly toast now?  4.5 back with 34 to go.

1:28
Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t count the Dodgers out but their sudden bullpen weakness suggests they’re not playing deep into October one way or another.

1:29
Lamish Hinklater: Re: Jeff McNeil and his age- he had just turned 26 at the start of the season, and had missed the better part of 2 seasons with injuries. A similar timeline to deGrom, honestly. So, is age really the fairest reason to discount him? I mean, it’s fair to just say you don’t think he’s that good based on scouting, tools, etc., but the age thing feels like a cop-out considering circumstances. No disrespect.

1:33
Jay Jaffe: Age is a proxy for a whole lot in a discussion about prospects,and I’ll freely admit to being no expert in the area, but I have yet to see any prospect expert worth reading place him in the top 30 of the Mets’ downtrodden system, and that’s an even bigger tell, as far as I’m concerned. Did I miss one? Not on BA, BP, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs or Cat Fancy’s lists, and I’m pretty sure not on ESPN’s (though I need to resubscribe to be sure).

1:33
stever20: On a 1-10 scale, how concerned are you with Chris Sale and his shoulder?   It seemed like first time was just a way to limit innings, but maybe there really is something there???

1:34
Jay Jaffe: Moderately concerned, but I think the Red Sox are smart to use this 9-game lead to their advantage and let him get as healthy as he’s gonna get before the postseason circus starts.

1:34
Bo: So Rick Ankiel wants to make a comeback next year as a reliever… If he were to make a 25-man roster, how impressive would that be?

1:34
Jay Jaffe: it would be a great story, for sure.

1:35
yankinstl: Would the yankees be one of the ones trying to sign Happ at the 3/45 deal? or are they going to continue to try and move away from older pitchers

1:35
Jay Jaffe: I would think they’d be in the mix. 3/$45M isn’t a backbreaker even if it goes south.

1:36
zurzles: McNeil was on Carson’s fringe prospects list, the only list that matters

1:36
Jay Jaffe: yes, he was a Fringe Five guy. I still like my mustache more than Carson’s.

1:37
Brian CashGod: Which top flight starters are on the block this winter? I could see Bumgarner and Paxton getting moved if their FOs read the writing on the outfield walls, and maybe deGrom / Syndergaard *if* the Mets start acting like a competent organization

1:39
Jay Jaffe: I doubt Paxton gets moved but I think the Giants will have to think hard about Bumgarner and I do expect that IF a competent GM comes in from outside the organization that one of the Mets’ big two will be traded. Nobody else of that caliber comes to mind as a trade candidate.

1:39
Network_Air: Jay, given your hall of fame knowledge, what does it take for a modern GM to enter the hall? Would Beane or Epstein have any chance on their merit?

1:41
Jay Jaffe: I wrote about this somewhere but I can’t recall if it was a chat or an email or an aside in a column. Epstein’s a lock already. Beane… his A’s are gonna have to win something to get in. At least a pennant, maybe more than one if no championship. Being a Thought Leader isn’t gonna be enough, i don’t think.

1:42
Rickey H: Was there the same amount of outrage when Cole Hamels obviously drilled Harper when he was a rookie on a hot streak as there was with this Urena – Acuna business? I seem to remember only “Welcome to the Show, rook” kind of comments at the time. Have attitudes changed or does the likability of the players involved still matter more than most things?

1:45
Jay Jaffe: There was definitely some outrage directed against Hamels, but there were also a lot of people predisposed to dislike Harper based upon the hype. I think attitudes towards benaballs are coming into the 21st century along with a more contemporary view of players visibly enjoying themselves on the field.

1:45
Lamish Hinklater: Getting back to Jeff McNeil, because he’s really what most people are here to read about: couldn’t the better question be, Why wasn’t he on any top 30 prospect lists? Is the answer just that later-round draftees who perform solidly but non spectacularly and don’t have any sexy-looking tools have trouble getting prospect-list traction? I know guys like deGrom and Matt Carpenter are somewhat exceptional, but they are common enough.

1:48
Jay Jaffe: I can’t believe I’m answering another Jeff McNeill question but “not on prospect lists” is a pretty solid shorthand for “no plus tools.” Doesn’t mean a guy won’t have an MLB career, and it doesn’t mean players can’t develop skills a bit later in the case of injuries — we’re probably in a time where hitting talent is more fluid than ever thanks to the launch angle revolution — but if you’re assessing risk/reward, those guys aren’t the ones to bet on.

1:48
bernie: Any chance the Crew overtakes the Cubs for the division? Or should I just take my blue and gold glasses off?

1:49
Jay Jaffe: Even if the Cubs’ rotation can’t ever find its form, i don’t see the Brewers’ rotation doing enough to catch them, not when the Cubs have the superior lineup as well.

OK folks, I’ve had all of the Jeff McNeill questions and all of the hunching over that I can stand. Thanks for stopping by this week!





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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mookie28member
5 years ago

There are plenty of guys that prospect lists miss that turn into players. Especially an oft-injured, low round pick that was moved all over the diamond. These guys can admit they made a mistake and no one will kill them.

Tea_Wreck
5 years ago
Reply to  mookie28

I don’t think the scouting community ever really considered Jose Altuve a legit prospect BA had him as like the Astros 25th best prospect in a very down system. He never made a BP team top 10, and these are from a time when the Astros had a very barren system. I can’t find FG’s prospect rankings from 2011 and earlier, but given the tone of the articles written here around Altuve’s call-up I can’t imagine he was a highly regarded prospect.