Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat.

Jay Jaffe: It’s my daughter’s birthday today so I’ve been running around like crazy, but the second installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress report is up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: Part I, covering pitchers and catchers, ran last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: Before I get going, thanks to a couple participants in last week’s chat for ideas that directly led to articles. Reader Your Name pointed out that at the time, the Pirates didn’t have a single player with a wRC+ of 100 or better, regardless of playing time. That would be a first if they pulled it off, as I discovered: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aargh-the-pirates-are-in-danger-of-making-… Since then, however, Tommy Pham and Spencer Horwitz have nosed over the line. We’ll see if they can maintain that

Jay Jaffe: Also, reader Nasty Nate asked for a look at Nathan Eovaldi, who’s having a sneaky great season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nathan-eovaldis-sneaky-great-season/

Jay Jaffe: For tomorrow, I’m looking at the AL MVP race, which is far from the Aaron Judge cakewalk that it looked like during the first half of the season — particularly if you take note of Cal Raleigh’s pitch framing as well as his prolific home run pace

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

MVP Race is over: Where do you project Cal to finish in HR?

Jay Jaffe: The out-of-the-box rest-of-season projections that we offer have him finishing with either 57 or 58. Tomorrow’s piece will have some odds via Dan’s ZiPS projections.

Thank you!: Judge needs to average like 28mm in value annually through remaining contract to be worth his contract based on fangraphs value. No question. It’s just crazy amount of value created so far.

Jay Jaffe: I’d regard those dollars-to-WAR figures as a bit outdated but yes, roughly speaking Judge has probably been worth more than half of the value of his $360 million deal through the first three seasons (out of nine).

Volpe: Is Volpe Yankees starting shortstop next year? Seems like they’re getting to the end of their leash with him. Or will it be more of a Volpe / Caballero competition in spring?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect that now that there’s an MLB-caliber in-house alternative, Volpe will face a job challenge next spring.

Phil: Chapman has given up 0 hits and 1 walk in August. If he continues to pitch like this, and if Jansen makes the Hall, does Chapman almost have to, unsavory stuff or no? It’s hard to think of anybody this dominant at this age.

Jay Jaffe: Well, i don’t expect him to continue to pitch hitless baseball. And I don’t expect a rush to elect Jansen despite his save totals and R-JAWS, so… I’d put Chapman’s odds at even longer if they’re contingent on Jansen’s election.

Skub-Chet: Skubal seems like he’s hitting a wall, while Crochet is getting stronger…is there a Cy Young race happening in the AL?

Jay Jaffe: Very much so. Skubal still has the edge but the gap has closed to the point that this could go down to the wire

12 to 6: jeez, sheehan looked amazing last night and with the dodgers’ staff seemingly rounding into health/form (glasnow has the worst FIP out of the six starters – that seems like a good sign), it looks like their pitching is solidifying at the right time. i’m presuming that sasaki is on the outside looking in no matter what his health is, right?

Jay Jaffe: Particularly given his struggles while rehabbing — Eric Longenhagen checked in recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/notes-on-more-pitching-rehabbers/) with an unflattering report — I think Sasaki is going to be looking at spot starting and long relief in September unless injuries press him into a bigger role. Getting him some innings, both for his peace of mind and to give him a larger platform to build upon, is important but so is winning the division.

Jay Jaffe: And wow have I been impressed by Sheehan since his return. The Dustin May trade makes a lot more sense given his emergence.

Ham Fighter: Which Brewers player would you slot in highest on a hypothetical NL MVP ballot and where? Does say William Contreras catching 4 of every 5 games for the best team in the league outweigh guys like Perdomo, Carroll, Marte, Stowers & Winn who have more individual WAR but on middling teams?

Jay Jaffe: Even given their surprising season, I don’t think they have to be represented strongly in the MVP voting. We’ll see where they end up a month from now, but via the two flavors of WAR, Turang is the only player with more than 3.x by any measure (4.2 bWAR). Maybe that’s worth a spot in the top 10 but I haven’t sat down to try to figure it out.

bringbackpologrounds: Vladdy’s OPS and bWAR are very similar to Miguel Cabrera’s for their first 7 seasons (similar ages as well). Do you see him following Miggy’s path and becoming an HOFer or settling into a Pete Alonso, 3 WAR per season player?

Jay Jaffe: It’s an interesting comp but within that timeframe, Vladito has been a higher-variance player (3 of 7 seasons at 116 OPS+ or lower, compared to one (Cabrera’s 87-game callup season) for Miggy. That seven-year run only takes us up to the start of where Cabrera really became an elite hitter; in years 8–14 (2010–16), Cabrera put up a 169 OPS+ while averaging 34 homers and 6.2 WAR. I’d take the under on Guerrero relative to that.

12 to 6: max muncy has played in 89 games for the dodgers this season: they’re 54-35. when he’s not in the lineup, their record is 19-20. since muncy started wearing glasses, he’s .295/.430(!)/.611(!) for a 1.040 ops and 17 homers, 60 rbi, and 46 walks. his seasonal “glasses wearing” notation is .295-45-160 with 122bb vs. 104 ks.

this is slightly tongue in cheek, but only slightly: is max muncy the actual nl mvp?

Jay Jaffe: It’s been pretty remarkable how much better the Dodgers are with Muncy than without. That was the case last year too, at least in terms of their fill-ins’ production. My theory is that it has to do with Muncy not just being an excellent hitter, he’s something of a tone-setter because of his patience at the plate, reminding other players to slow it down and make the pitcher work

Jay Jaffe: Oops forgot about a radio spot. Back shortly…

Jay Jaffe: Time zones, how do they work? I appear to have forgotten.

Jay Jaffe: anyway, back to our chat…

Bob: On MLB Now Brian Kenny is now rating Cal Ripken and Joe Morgan ahead of Honus Wagner and Rogers Hornsby. Is he slighting early baseball?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s unreasonable to view those older players with skepticism specifically because of segregation. The quality of play is so much higher now because the pool of potential players is so much wider, and because nutrition and training have improved so much over the past century-plus

Matt VW: BWar likes Roman Anthony’s defense so far…he’s not showing up on Statcast yet. My eye test suggests he’s hanging in more than contributing. (Not saying that’s his ceiling, just that that’s where he is as he’s figuring it out.) Do you have a read on him in the field so far?

Jay Jaffe: Anthony doesn’t have enough innings to be a Statcast qualifier but the early read on his defense there is strong.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Stronger range-wise than arm-wise, i guess.

Jay Jaffe: We are talking about just 152 innings in LF (always a challenge to measure given Fenway Park) and 223.1 in RF. But so far I’d be pretty happy with his defense if I’m the Sox

Cube Jockey: Will this year’s OPS+ and WAR be adjusted for the Athletics hitters and pitchers as future years’ Statcast info is built in the Sacramento ballpark?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, as we get more data, our park factors will be adjusted retroactively as will the stats for which they’re factors. This isn’t unusual — we do this when it comes to significant dimension changes as well as new ballparks. Other sites do it as well.

wheelhouse: do you think Judge actually plays significant time at 1B in his career or is it more likely he just gradually transitions directly from RF to DH as Stanton gets deprioritized?

Jay Jaffe: I think that will depend upon the Yankees’ roster, his own health, and his desire to learn a new position. Wouldn’t surprise me if he wants to learn first eventually given how hard he works and how much pride he takes in his defense. But I can also understand the Yankees proceeding cautiously here. “It’s incredibly hard,” as the man said.

Guest: What team had the best collection of players who due to age or poor seasons combined to create a below .500 team?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to think about this for longer before giving you a final answer but for now I’ll default to the 1992 Mets — subject of The Worst Team Money Could Buy, by John Harper and Bob Klapisch — had Hall of Famer Eddie Murray plus Willie Randolph, Todd Hundley, Howard Johnson (in CF!), Bobby Bonilla, and a rotation with Gooden, Cone, Saberhagen and peak Sid Hernandez… and they went 72-90

Beano: Saggese is really a nice lil player – does he have a future in St Louis or is he a utitlity guy?

Jay Jaffe: Why not both? Eric Longenhagen’s prospect report has him as a 40+ FV guy, which is a utility-type player, and he concludes his writeup with “Below-average OBP and power output here limit Saggese to a contact-driven utility infield fit.”  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/st-louis-cardinals-top-41-prospects/

Guest: Was Franklin Gutierrez that good of a defender? 33 DRS in 2009 and UZR/150 approaching 30?

Jay Jaffe: A name i haven’t thought of in years! For a few years there he was elite. 66 DRS and 57 UZR in 2961 innings from 2007–09 and only one Gold Glove (2010, once he was in decline) to show for it.

Phil: Do you think WAR understates the value of the best players? fWAR says that if you replaced Judge with a replacement player the Yankees would hace the same record as the Rays, 64-67. But to watch them you feel like they’d be closer to Orioles-level.

Jay Jaffe: WAR is always just an approximation, and the actual identity of the player who would replace a given guy varies from team to team. We’ve seen what the 2025 Yankees look like without Judge — an outfield of Dominguez, Grisham, and Bellinger with Stanton DHing — and they could do a whole lot worse than that. As for the comparison to the Orioles, the Yankees have much better pitching.

Steve: What’s going on with Luis Arraez? His Zone% is higher than it ever has been, so pitchers simply aren’t scared to pitch to him, but his average, BABIP, wRC+, Barrel rate and nearly all traditional  and advanced statistics are way down this year. In 2025 he just can’t seem to convert the same pitches into equivalent results the way he did in 2022-2024. What am i missing in the stats?

Jay Jaffe: he’s not swinging as hard as in the past, so he’s not hitting the ball as hard. His chase rate is at a career high, as is his O-Contract rate, which is up from 89.2% to 93.4% this year. I’d have to check to be sure in his case but that’s almost always bad news in terms of outcomes.

Insert Witty Name Here: Happy birthday to your daughter! How is parenthood treating you?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks! Parenting isn’t easy, but I love it. It’s amazing the way kids take to some of the interests you share with them (in our case things like Lego, dinosaurs, space travel, Edward Gorey, sushi, and a generally macabre sense of humor) and develop their own interests as well.

WinTwins0410: Jay, happy b-day to your daughter and as always thanks for doing these chats. Looking ahead to December’s Contemporary Era Committee vote (and I promise this isn’t a request for a comment on the Current Occupant’s ridiculous advocacy to put the Rocket in the Hall): If I try to construct the ballot, feels like I already have 7 of the 8 slots taken up — and that’s before considering Whitaker or Dewey (who both got breakout Contemp Era votes in the past). I think the ballot has to include newcomers Sheffield and Kent, and then also Dale, Donnie Baseball and Schilling, who all got breakout amounts in 2023, plus likely Bonds and Clemens. Does that sound right to you? That leaves just one slot for Lou, Dwight, Palmeiro and Albert Belle (lol). Or maybe those final 6 (Barry, Roger, Whitaker, Evans and Rafael) vie for the 3 remaining slots. Do you think it’s safe to assume that we’ll see Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Mattingly and Schilling all on that ballot? Seems like it.

Jay Jaffe: It’s going to be very tough to build that ballot for reasons that you point out — and I hate that, since both Evans nd Whitaker deserve much longer looks than they’ve been given. Wouldn’t surprise me if Murphy (37.5% last time) s one of the odd men out, and I highly doubt they include Palmeiro or Belle given past performance and baggage. So: Bonds, Clemens, Kent, Sheffield, Schilling, Mattingly (50% last time and you know they are dying to get him in), Evans, Whitaker maybe? Good luck with that one

CleGuy: Would it be fair to say that the Guardians have squandered José Ramírez? I feel like no front office has been given a bigger leg up, and yet they consistently struggle to build around him.

Jay Jaffe: While their skimping on payroll and trading players early hasn’t helped their cause, I think “squandered” is unfair. They have off years but they’ve generally been competitive in the AL Central during his career, and have reached the playoffs six times over the past decade with him in the lineup, including the 2016 World Series. They got to the ALCS last year and lost two ALDS Game 5s to the Yankees (2017, 2022) that would have sent them to the ALCS a couple more times.

CleGuy: How many Gold Gloves would Steven Kwan have to win in order to make a Hall of Fame case?

Jay Jaffe: 26

Jay Jaffe: (I kid, of course). Kwan is an elite left field defender, with 58 DRS in four seasons (ages 24-27), but even so, he’s got just one season worth more than 4.0 bWAR so I’d be skeptical that he’ll have a strong Hall case once he more fully fills out his career

Guest: Can you explain to me why Othani has a 0 war for pitching on Baseball Reference and a 1.1 on Fangrpahs? Which one is more accurate?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not that one is more accurate than the other, it’s that you’re choosing between a model that attempts to adjust for defense and opponent offense and is based on the actual runs allowed (bWAR) and a model that is independent of defense (fWAR). To these eyes, the answer is somewhere in the middle as Ohtani has been dinked to death, with a .378 BABIP that includes a ton of soft contact. Stamina has been an issue, as has the patchwork defensive lineup behind him.

drplantwrench: trouts obviously a first ballot hall of famer, but based on history do you think he has a chance of a later career resurgence? or is he going slowly sizzle out? what type of career achievements do you think he ends up with?

Jay Jaffe: A subject I’ll touch on in next week’s HOF progress installment and perhaps at length in a separate piece at some point. He’s currently hitting for a 120 wRC+ with 20 HR and 1.5 fWAR/1.2 bWAR. he’s been a bit unlucky, batted ball-wise, so I imagine we’re looking at a player capable of 2-3 WAR per year, maybe more if he’s fully healthy and trusts his body.

Phil: What do you think will become of Buehler? If he has some success in the bullpen, will he or should he just try to build a second career as a reliever, Eckersley-style, or go back to starting as soon as possible? The Red Sox having essentially three healthy and reliable starters seems relevant to this question. . .

Jay Jaffe: I expect he’ll try to find work as a starter for as long as he can but wouldn’t surprise me if he emerges as a very good reliever.

Idle wonderings: Do you think David Cone ever makes the Hall? (I was reminded of this by the question from the mailbag about multiple HoF pitchers on the same team. I think he overlapped with a few)

Jay Jaffe: very long shot given the bottleneck for making the ballot and the backlog of other viable candidates

Travis: Zack Wheeler getting thoracic outlet surgery is definitely not what you want to see. Fair to say that, in addition to sucking for both him and baseball fans in general, this becomes another sizable hurdle in his HoF case? That cuts out at least a year of counting stats, if not more.

Jay Jaffe: It’s very possibly a mortal blow to his (already tenuous) Hall of Fame chances. One thing I think it’s worth pointing out — but I didn’t see mentioned in the coverage of his injury (and didn’t include it in mine) — is that he’s repeatedly said he’ll retire after his contract expires in 2027, his age-37 season. That itself would diminish his Hall chances by leaving his already-low counting stats even lower. We’ll see if the surgery and rehab changes his perspective. Hoping for the best, obviously

drplantwrench: another question on trout: is he one of the unluckiest “Greatest of All Time” guys? he had to deal with pujols turning into a pumpkin, the josh hamilton fiasco, tyler skaggs, the rendon signing, getting injured anually right when shohei turns into an MVP, and on top of that dealing with arte

Jay Jaffe: you can pretty much file this under ARTE MORENO BUILT THIS TEAM ON AN ANCIENT BURIAL GROUND AND IS PAYING FOR THAT SIN

Jay Jaffe: it’s an absolute horror show when you lay it out like that

Sirras: Can you remember a guy for us? Not a star, just a guy

Jay Jaffe: Vicente Romo, 1970s reliever whose brother was more famous (part of the World Series-winning 1979 Pirates’ bullpen). Didn’t appear in the majors between 1975 and 1981, then at age 39 suddenly popped up on the 1982 Dodgers for 15 appearances including six starts.

H/T to Adam Darowski, who posted about Romo on Bluesky last week.

Mike Trout Mask Replica: The 2008 Tigers are another collection of good players that were surprisingly bad. It was Miggy’s first year with Detroit, and they also added Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria to a team that had barely missed the playoffs the prior season. They also had Pudge, Placido Polanco, Carlos GUillen, Curtis Granderson, and Gary Sheffield; and a starting rotation that also included Verlander, Kenny Rogers nad Jeremy Bonderman. And they only won 74 games!

Jay Jaffe: Good call, migh be 3 HOFers there

bringbackpologrounds: Re: Underachieving teams. ARod, Griffey, Edgar, Big Unit, Moyer Mariners were 76-85 in 1998 (Randy traded midseason). They were fresh off of a playoff appearance; all 5 were healthy.

Jay Jaffe: another very good one.

Izzy: Cal Raleigh has 21.2 fWAR in 4 seasons. Yadier Molina had 55.6 fWAR in his entire career. CAL is way ahead of Molina’s WAR pace. How likely is he a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: He’s put himself on the radar. I did write a few sentences about him in the first installment of the Hall progress thing, linked above. We’ll see if he warrants a longer writeup next year!

Guest: How do you feel abot the Tigers meeting the Brewers in the WS?

Jay Jaffe: Sounds like a fun one, albeit one that would mean I don’t get to cover any World Series games (like all of 2016–23). once you get a taste for it…

re: that stuff about ripken and hornsby: Should the increased potential player pool for the MLB matter for HoF voting? Put another way, should post-segregation players be given a leg up for having to play above a replacement level that includes Black players, and should modern players get a leg up for having to compete for replacement level against a group that now includes Masataka Yoshida and Eugenio Suarez and too many other foreign players to mention?

Jay Jaffe: it should probably matter more than it does. The higher WARs of yesteryear, and the Herculean feats of old timers even apart from WAR, owe plenty to the fact that a good chunk of the league was guys who wouldn’t have been everyday players with a larger pool. A 7-WAR player in 2025 is a massively better player than a 7-WAR player in 1925. Doesn’t mean we can’t celebrate those old guys but holding them up as unquestioningly superior to today’s players is something that only happens in baseball; it’s not like there’s an argument that Sammy Baugh was a better QB than (ugh) Tom Brady.

Jay Jaffe: On that subject, I really want to read this study that was mentioned recently:  https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/science/baseball-statistics-babe-bo…

Jay Jaffe: if anyone has access to this paper through an academic account, please reach out https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-statistics/volume…

Jay Jaffe: On that note, it’s time for me to go. Thanks so much for stopping by. Next week is a toss-up in the wake of the long weekend but I’ll hope to fit the chat in. Have a great one, folks!