JD Sussman Prospects Chat – 5/17/13

JD Sussman: Hey everyone, sorry for running a few minutes late. I know you’re thrilled that Mike will not be joining us. Post questions!

Comment From LarryA
Do you take Roto Questions?

JD Sussman: Whatever your heart desires, LarryA. Though, like Mike, I’ll only take questions on guys I’ve seen or guys I’ve heard a good deal about.

Comment From TK
I know he’s repeating low A but is Rossell Herrera playing his way back into relevance? Top 100 guy down the road? Position?

JD Sussman: I’d bet on Herrera’s tools. I need to cut the video of him from spring training, but he’s a LONG athletic kid. Really love what he was doing from the left side. I just took him in a deep 14 team league, and I’d advise grabbing him. But, he isn’t a SS.

Comment From OJones
Roman Quinn had a little hot streak last week but has fallen back a bit. I know Mike was very high on him through the offseason, do you see him starting to perform to Mike’s lofty expectations?

JD Sussman: I saw Quinn a few weeks ago and will see him many more times this year at Lakewood. From talking to Mike, he sees a lot more pop than I do, especially from the right hand side. He has EASY elite speed. He’s trying to use it. By design or on his own, he was showing bunt to start off every PA

Comment From Brian
Hey JD, just the man I was looking for! Any thoughts on Heathcott or Tyler Austin making strides?

JD Sussman: Brian, I’ll be seeing them in Trenton tonight and a few more times this year. I’ll report back though, or follow me on twitter for the quick stuff. @jdsussman

Comment From Daniel
Thoughts on Syndergaard’s CB development this year? How good can this guy be if the CB continues to develop? How would you grade his CU? Thanks

JD Sussman: I was planning on making a trip down to the FSL to see for myself, but I couldn’t work it out. Maybe in August. I ranked him among the best in the minors based on his FB/CU combo, if the CB comes along, watch out.

Comment From RyanW
Lewis Brinson is showing power and speed w/ nice defense….Are you a believer in Brinson?

JD Sussman: Absolutely. He’s raw, but the tools are explosive. Due to scheduling issues, I won’t see Hickory this year but I’ll catch him next year in the Carolina Lg

Comment From JR
What is Yasiel Puig’s timeline? Do we see him this season, 2014, when?

JD Sussman: He’s pretty blocked. Kemp, Crawford and Ethier are a hard group to surpass. I could see him coming up late this year and in late 2014, but he won’t break in with the club until he works out his maturity issues.

Comment From zack
Should people be somewhat concerned about all pitching prospects at all times because they are pitchers; pitchers get hurt; and no one knows why?

JD Sussman: This is an intriguing philosophical question. Do we downgrade all pitches as a class (as compared to hitters for trading and value purposes) or do we assume that pitching injuries occur and we can’t predict them? I wouldn’t say “no one” knows why they get hurt, but it’s my opinion there are very very few people qualified to discuss that.

Comment From lowercase jeff
why is rendon still in aa instead of aaa?

JD Sussman: Does it matter?

Comment From Mozelles
Is Billy Hamilton going to be able to hit in the Majors? This year?

JD Sussman: No.

Comment From RyanW
Russell, Baez, Story are all struggling? Should we be worried about any of them?

JD Sussman: I’m pretty shocked about Story struggling. He struck me as a very polished player. I’m assuming there is an injury there. Russell, not so much. He’s raw and he can become unbalanced at the plate. However, his struggles are a positive. it’s a learning experience. I haven’t see Baez, but I assume his approach is hurting him.

Comment From Brandon Joseph NJSmilerX Geluso of Greenlawn
tyler austin’s sb/cs #’s in the minors are really cute, does he project as a plus baserunner?

JD Sussman: I’ll let you know next week. It’s Gausman vs. Jose Ramirez tonight. I am. very very very excited.

Comment From LarryA
Thanks, more of a general question, but how high should I aim when trading away top 10 prospects when “going all in” in a keeper league? What should I ask in return for guys like Yelich, Taveras, etc?

JD Sussman: As I wrote last year at RotoGraphs, I’m ALL for trading prospects for established talent. But, Yelich and Taveras are MLB-ready or close to it. Those aren’t the guys I’d advocate moving unless you’re getting big guys in return.

Comment From lowercase jeff
do you see rendon taking time away from espinosa at 2b before season’s end?

JD Sussman: I don’t see how the Nationals can play Rendon at 2B given his ankle injury history. Plus, he’s played just 4 games there. I wouldn’t worry about it if I was Danny Espinosa.

Comment From Basebull
Is Julio Morban a legit OF prospect, or is that BB/K going to kill him?

JD Sussman: Frankly, Mike liked him a lot more than I did down in AZ. I guess it depends on how you define legit. He could be a guy for Caron’s fringe five.

Comment From OJones
Have you seen Vogelbach? does he have enough prince fielder in him to keep it up in the show?

JD Sussman: Yes, i have. People fail to realize how good an athlete Prince Fielder is. As interesting as Vogelbach’s bat is, he’s a non-fielder. He must be a DH.

Comment From Repo Man
Rafael Montero has been pretty dominant on the strength of a very good FB and incredible command. How would you grade his SL and CU at this time? How much improvement do these 2 pitches need for him to be a good (better than backend) MLB starter? Thanks

JD Sussman: Sadly, I had to miss Montero at Trenton and he won’t be in New Britain next week. I didn’t see more than 3 starter when I saw him though. I’d like more looks.

Comment From zack
How long do you think Carlos Martinez stays in the majors? Do you think the cardinals are taking advantage of the fact he got a late start to the season because of his visa issues to stretch him out a little in the big league pen?

JD Sussman: With the team competing, I think he’ll be there all year.

Comment From Guest
Anything changed on your perspective on Aaron Sanchez or Kyle Crick this year? SSS, Sanchez hasn’t been lights out, Crick been banged up…

JD Sussman: No, I haven’t heard anything that would change my opinion. Both have big stuff and control issues. I’m far more confident Sanchez, who has a CH too, will figure it out than I am with Crick. But, more so than ever, the game is about developing All-Stars. I’d want both in my system.

Comment From lowercase jeff
are you at all concerned with trevor story now that we’re approaching 150 PAs?

JD Sussman: It’s not the sample, it’s the reports that bother me. His swing is all kinds of messed up right now

Comment From John
Who is the Pirates #3 SP prospect Heredia, Glasnow, Kingham, who ya like?

JD Sussman: Glasnow, Kingman Heredia

Comment From zack
Which undersized flamethrower do you prefer: Carlos Martinez or Yordano Ventura?

JD Sussman: Martinez, not close.

Comment From John
Rather have Wil Myers or Arenado long-term? (based on Myers’ struggles this year)

JD Sussman: Myers.

Comment From Clownbro mcQuestions
is Gausman as ready for MLB as the K/BB #’s and hype would have you believe?

JD Sussman: This may be contrary to public opinion, but I don’t think anyone is ever ready for the jump from Double-A to the MLB. The talent gulf is enormous. with that said, I think he could survive. But, you’ll get a full report monday.

Comment From pr
why is trevor story so bad? any positives this year so far?

JD Sussman: I’ve heard his backside is collapsing and he’s struggling with off-speed.

Comment From RyanW
Bradley, Gausman, Walker,Cole, Taillon? how would you rank them?

JD Sussman: Yikes…. They are all so talented, I’ll stick to how close they are to the majors. Gausman, Cole, Walker, Taillon, Bradley.

Comment From Alden Brown
Cesar Puello… you buying?`

JD Sussman: I’ll see him again next Thursday, but I’m not convinced.

Comment From JWR
Boegarts v. Lindor– who has the better outlook? who is more likely to hit the majors first?

JD Sussman: Better outlook: Lindor. His defense makes him the easy choice and makes his floor so much higher than Xanders, but Bogegarts will hit for a lot more power.

Comment From zack
I know strikeouts aren’t a huge issue with big league hitters, but how important are they for minor leaguers?

JD Sussman: Depends on the level. In the low minors, it’s scary to see a guy whiffing a lot. As they advance, it’s less of an issue.

Comment From Too Many Joes
What should we make of Springer? He’s a little old for AA at 23, but he’s dominating. He strikes out a ton, but walks a ton too…

JD Sussman: Al wrote him up Thursday http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/george-springer-power-and-speed-outfielder/

Comment From Scrapper
Should Cub fans be worried that Javier Baez is continuing his hack-tastic ways this season?

JD Sussman: Yes and no. I’d bet on his tools, but that’s the kind of approach one needs to prove can work. I was very skeptical of Taveras, Sandoval and guys like that. Some can do it, others can’t.

Comment From Rod Blagojevich
JD, SEA’s SS’ have been atrocious offensively, meanwhile Franklin is killing AAA. Is this just a matter of waiting for Super 2 to pass? Does that mark the call up for mid-June roughly? Also, likelihood he’s moved off SS eventually? Thanks

JD Sussman: I would absolutely wait for super two to pass. But, Franklin isn’t an SS.

Comment From RyanW
Gioloto future number 2?

JD Sussman: Front of the rotation upside. But, let’s wait till he throws post-Tommy John.

Comment From Scrapper
Any organization that is having a particularly good run, prospect-wise, during the first 6 weeks of the minor league seasons?

JD Sussman: The Twins.

Comment From zack
Migue Sano is destroying high A. How long until he gets promoted?

JD Sussman: He’s a guy I would challenge. But, I’m bias… (New Britain being so close and all)

Comment From RyanW
Who you got at each position for your all ceiling prospect team?

JD Sussman: FUN. That should be a post. Off the top of my skull…. Sanchez, Singleton, Rosario, Russell, Bogearts, Buxton, Taveras, Yelich

Comment From Guest
At what point does Francisco Lindor get bumped up to AA?

JD Sussman: I’d guess after the Carolina-Calfornia League All Start Game

Comment From CJ
Re: Lewis Brinson, his K% is so high, does that worry you at this point? What makes you think he can reduce it?

JD Sussman: Hugh concern. From what I’ve seen, he has poor balance because of all that torque. But, I’ll hear more about him after this four game set.

Comment From Guest
Rafael De Paula. Thoughts on him? 69 Ks in 39 innings is pretty good.

JD Sussman: None. I’ve heard what you have. Big time power arm. I’ll see once he’s promoted.

Comment From Rod Blagojevich
Who’s taking Price’s spot, Archer or Odorizzi? Who would you pick? Thanks

JD Sussman: Give me archer.

Comment From Feeesh Heads
What is blocking Yelich from a promotion to AAA or even Miami?

JD Sussman: What’s to say that Triple-A is a good move? I see no reason why he should be in Florida.

Comment From zack
Can you think of any defensible reason for the Phillies playing Delmon Young in the outfield on a daily basis?

JD Sussman: No. Reuben Amaro is a spendthrift who has grossly mismanaged that team.

Comment From RyanW
Is Zach Wheeler higher ceiling than Harvey? Harvey is due for some regression right?

JD Sussman: Yikes. Before this season I might have said yes to that… But, Harvey has 3 plus or better pitches and his CB aint bad either. All of a sudden he’s controlling them tool. Wheeler has similar stuff, but I wouldn’t take him over Harvey.

Comment From Guest
What are your thoughts on Jameson Taillon. I know Mike really doesn’t like him, but what about you.

JD Sussman: Wrote him up last season http://bullpenbanter.com/jameson-taillon-looking-beyond-statistics/

Comment From OJones
what do you look for in a prospect pitcher in terms of mental toughness? it seems like there are guys who really bear down with men on base, or in high leverage situations, and those who really fall apart. some issues may be mechanical (bad windup from the stretch), but surely there’s some way to look for the guy’s mental game as well?

JD Sussman: It’s something I’ll ask scouts about, or their coaches (who will almost never give a straight forward answer). But, I look at that talent. I can’t get inside these kids’ heads.

Comment From H to the Rizzo
What is Arismendy Alcantara’s power tool going to be like?

JD Sussman: He’s a tiny dude and wire thin. I don’t expect high power totals.

Comment From Scrapper
Would you say that any particular tool is over or underrated compared by ML scouts (at least compared to what you look for in a hitter)?

JD Sussman: A player is a blend of his tools and abilities. I haven’t spoke to anyone who gets too excited about one tool — although Billy Hamilton was a thing. It’s about the complete package. It’s all relative

Comment From Jack Nugent
Any sense of vindication with Javier Baez struggling in Daytona while Soler’s been pretty great (past couple 0-fers notwithstanding)

JD Sussman: Hey buddy. Vindication? I don’t know, I was never down on Baez. Though, I do like when players I praise do well. I’d say I was highest on Russell and he’s been blahhhh so far

Comment From OJones
Rougned Odor is putting on a little bit of a laser show in myrtle beach. have you seen him? how can i get him to be traded to a team that can offer him playing time?

JD Sussman: I’ll see him Saturday against Wilmington.

Comment From Jim
Phil Hughes, Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin and Manny Banuelos for Jurickson Profar. Fair trade?

JD Sussman: No.

Comment From Michael
What would you think if the Astros pick Cavan Biggio at #40?

JD Sussman: A few of these questions have been asked… I only do minors. But, Bullpen Banter will be publishing some draft work shortly. Some great draft follows are @alskor, @Ioffridus and @SoCalSteve9

Comment From Ira
Could the Mets hypothetically get a huge return for Harvey at this point? For example some combination of Cole/Taillon, Hanson, Polanco, Bell?

JD Sussman: I wouldn’t do that if I were the Pirates

Comment From RK
I’ll bet you Rendon takes over Nats 2b by the end of the month.

JD Sussman: What are the stakes?

Comment From Innerlewd
Story .333/.366/.436 over his last ten games he had one awful month in the Sally last year too, I think he comes around

JD Sussman: I wouldn’t suggest breaking a small sample into a smaller one (or caring about CAL stats), but that’s not a negative line, so it’s positive, I guess.

Comment From Trent
Eddie Rosario is off to a nice start, and I can’t help but notice his smooth swing/approach at the plate. Any thoughts thus far?

JD Sussman: I always though his swing was too long, but it’s awesome when a guy’s tools explode like this. Will seem in after a promotion.

Comment From Innerlewd
Rosell Herrera long term CF or 3B?

JD Sussman: He isn’t a CF. doesn’t have that kind of body long term. 3B absolutely.

Comment From AJ
How do you project Cory Spangenberg’s future?

JD Sussman: Saw him last season. sadly I’d have to ask – what future?

Comment From Frank
Who would you prefer in a Dynasty format? Wil Myers or Jose Fernandez? How far apart are they?

JD Sussman: Give me the hitter. 4 categories vs. 3 (can’t count on wins, especially on that squad)

Comment From Bart
Do you see Kyle Gibson being called up by the Twins soon and what can we expect from him going forward? Is he worth a stash?

JD Sussman: I’d expect that after super two. Depends on how deep the league is but I’d say stashing him is a decent move.

Comment From Garth Vader
Make a snap judgement: Starlings LASIK surgery does or doesn’t help him?

JD Sussman: Does.

Comment From East Coast Bias
Is your lack of knowledge of west coast minor leaguers the reason you don’t answer many questions about them?

JD Sussman: Yes. Though, I’d say lack of first hand observation. I’ve certainly heard a lot about them from Steve and other contacts

Comment From Lloyd
Is Matt Wisler a nice up & comer in your opinion?

JD Sussman: Absolutely. I believe Newman wrote him up too

Comment From Eliot
Do you think Machado will eventually move back over to SS, or is at 3B forever now?

JD Sussman: I think he’ll move back once Hardy is gone.

Comment From Mike D
Any chance you’ll get another look at Bogaerts any time soon? His plate discipline seems to be much better this year. Thanks for the chat, keep up the good work!

JD Sussman: Yes, I’ll see him several times this year.

Comment From FR
JD, any prospects who might be worth buying low on?

JD Sussman: You’ll always fine people acting silly based on small samples.

Comment From JB
Expectations for Odorizzi if he gets the call up?

JD Sussman: Back of the rotation arm

Comment From jjdouglas
How much of an issue do you see Myers K% being long term?

JD Sussman: A strikeout is obviously worse than a ball in play, but I don’t think the SOs will prevent him from becoming a stud

Comment From Goose
whatever happened to Gorky’s Hernandez?

JD Sussman: He’s chasing down balls in an outfield in the sky

Comment From Django
Interesting fantasy question: Was offered his Wheeler for my Crick and Heredia in a very deep league. Do I run to take this like I think I should?

JD Sussman: Take it and RUN. Then find a new league.

Comment From John
Do you have a viable solution for the Super 2 call-up issues?

JD Sussman: I love this question but what is the issue exactly? Players’ rights under the CBA is a passion of mine.

Comment From RyanW
Jorge Alfaro a top 25 guy next year?

JD Sussman: No

Comment From Grandal
So Hundley doesn’t like me too much. Will I show him why in a couple of weeks? ROS: Grandal vs Salty?

JD Sussman: I understand where Hundley is coming from. He is going to loose his job to a guy who broke the rules. Give me Grandal

Comment From redbeard
Is Glasnow for real? Should he be moved up?

JD Sussman: Very real.

Comment From Eminor3rd
What are your thoughts on Aaron Judge?

JD Sussman: Just wanted to repeat i don’t write about the draft. 20 more minutes gang, then I’m off to trenton.

Comment From Vince
Does Bogaerts stick at SS, and when do you think he’s in MLB full time?

JD Sussman: My gut tells me the Sox will keep him there because 3B isn’t an option.

Comment From gregory
How impressed should we be by Jorge Soler’s early success?

JD Sussman: Eh. Kind of advanced for that league. Should be a Smokie

Comment From Sean
Where would Archie Bradley rank in terms of ceiling of all prospects?

JD Sussman: Absolutely near the top of the pitchers.

Comment From lowercase jeff
any specific twins prospects off to a good start you can mention?

JD Sussman: All of them? Rosario has surprised. Jorge Polanco. I should probably write about Josmil Pinto. Buxton, etc. They’re doing well.

Comment From mike
Is cj edwards legit

JD Sussman: I’ve never seen him myself but I’m hearing big things about him. Def a guy.

Comment From Nolan
Will Oscar Taveras be a better keeper for me for next year than Pujols?

JD Sussman: Wow. I actually think the answer is yes, given how deep 1B is.

Comment From Ringo
Have you seen Gaussman before tonight? Can he be a solid #2 or is that asking too much?

JD Sussman: Absolutely can.

Comment From Matt "Bronco" Meyer from 8 Arosa Ct, Greenlawn NY 11740
How much rope do they give Romine before sending down? Any chance JR Murphy gets a look this year?

JD Sussman: I’ll see Murphy tonight and will have more.

Comment From gregory
Is Rock Shoulders proving to be more than a fringe prospect?

JD Sussman: He certainly has an 80 grade name, but I haven’t asked anyone about him, to be honest.

Comment From gregory
Should Cubs fans worry about Jeimer Candelario’s struggles?

JD Sussman: Yes. I believe I wrote in the Top 15 I wasn’t a fan.

Comment From Sean
He’s not a ‘prospect’ anymore now that he’s up, but how do you react to the success of Didi Gregorius? His product in the minors wasn’t good, but the tools he’s showing now (very fast bat speed, good pitch recognition, some power) seem to be leading to better production. Has he turned the corner?

JD Sussman: When I saw him this spring I really liked his swing. He’s a long wiry athlete. He’ll never be a force but I think he’ll hit more than Simmons

Comment From Jon
Do the twins have any real SS prospects in their system?

JD Sussman: I enjoy watching Danny Santana. I’ll write him up soon. Kind of backlogged now that I think of it

Comment From Jon
Do you think there’s any chance Flores can handle 2b or is it a foregone conclusion that he’s destined for 1b/dh?

JD Sussman: They have to give him a chance to play 2B. I don’t see it working out. 3B for another team. Not enough bat for 1B/Dh

Comment From Dave
Can starling marte make up for his poor plate discipline with his awesome hitting ability?

JD Sussman: Yes. And his D. I think we had him top 25 back in the day. Love his physicality

Comment From Larry
So do you still think Myers will be a stud with that K% ?

JD Sussman: He is a stud

Comment From Josh
What is it going to take for Cosart to get called up?

JD Sussman: I’m not sure. I’m really sad I haven’t promoted him more. I loved what I saw from him and believe he has the athletic ability to start.

Comment From Who is John Galt
What do you make of Mike Olt?

JD Sussman: Unsure. I thought he was a guy with some swing and miss, a passive approach and big power who plays a good third base. I’ve heard he has had eye troubles too

Comment From Cameroon Diego
Is Soler the better prospect than Puig?

JD Sussman: Yes

Comment From Josh
How do you feel about the Astros use of the piggy back system in AAA?

JD Sussman: It’s throughout the minors. My only concern is when are they going to start stretching these guys out? In the show? But, I’m sure they’ve got it covered.

Comment From Goat
Albert Almora…Harold Reynolds loves this guy. Thoughts on him?

JD Sussman: I do too. Hopefully he gets healthy soon.

Comment From The old professor
Sano the best power prospect in baseball right now? Stanton-esque?

JD Sussman: Off the top of my head, yes. I can’t think of anyone close.

Comment From Dan
Thoughts on the future of Michael Wacha? #2? #3?

JD Sussman: 3/4

Comment From Ray
You keep mentioning Russell as your high ceiling SS of choice. How close do you rate Correa? How about pure offense?

JD Sussman: I’ve seen a lot more of Russell. Correra is a stud too, don’t worry.

Comment From John
Re: Super 2. Players get kept in the minors longer than necessary based on the CBA Super 2 deadline. Teams lose the benefit of having a better player on their roster early in the season in order to protect the rights to said player later in their career. Also, the player (if i’m not wrong) misses out on the MLB league minimum salary until the call up. I understand the logic behind the deadline, but the unintended results seem to work against both the team and the player.

JD Sussman: The teams are losing the benefit by choice. They don’t have to keep the kids down. The quickest way to stop this practice is to push the deadline back further.

Comment From Scrapper
What do you find to be the best source (including breadth of minor league stats, ease of use, etc.) to look at minor league statistics?

JD Sussman: I don’t really look at MILB stats. I hear FanGraphs is pretty good

Comment From Mike Newman
Better pick up line for the ladies? 1. I write at FanGraphs. 2. I graduated law school.

JD Sussman: I tried number 1 this week. It failed, but she couldn’t resit how high maintenance I was. I’ll have to try number 2 tomorrow after I leave Wilmington.

Thanks everyone!!