Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/19/18

January 19, 2018

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Although that’s Friday baseball chat with an asterisk: there’s a decent chance that in about half an hour I’m going to have to go give someone an emergency ride to a wedding

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Not ideal! But here we are. I hope it works out

9:04	Bork: Hello, friend, and welcome back!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:04	LudeBurger: Jeff is back!!!!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of!

9:04	Jimmy: Any advice for someone about to propose?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: As long as you know it’s the right person just don’t overthink it

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Although at the same time do remember that you’ll be repeating the story for the rest of your life

9:05	CamdenWarehouse: Congratulations, Jeff! I am the only one who feels like Jules saying “Say ‘collusion’ one more time” this winter?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: It’s of course a very complicated situation that’s playing out. And there’s a whole conversation to be had about whether it counts as collusion if teams are just uniform in the way they evaluate available players. Not an easy answer to that one but it’s unquestionably where we are today

9:06	CJL: Astros still don’t have even an average/reliable LHH reliever. Is it really that important to have one? Does Tony Watson make too much sense or Liriano back on a shorter deal?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Given that they literally just won the World Series, no, it’s not a necessity, but they can and should do better than Liriano anyhow

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: With Watson, yeah, he works, and you don’t have to think very hard

9:07	R: Have you ever read Nate Silver’s book, “The Signal and the Noise”?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: That’s one of several books I haven’t had to actually read because I end up consuming it indirectly through other content

9:08	Nelson: I know it seems like recency bias, but will we ever again see Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers or Bosox dwelling in the cellar for 4-5 years straight? Do they have advantages now that they didnt have when they had runs of being doormats in the past?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hard to imagine any of the major markets being terrible for that long, but then, we have had the Phillies. And most importantly, “ever” is a long time, and god knows what the next CBAs are going to do about parity and revenue sharing

9:09

Tim: Rank my bold predictions for this season from most to least ridiculous:

1. David Price’s elbow stays intact and he finally pitches like the guy the Red Sox thought they were getting when they signed him — in fact, he has such a good year that he opts out of his contract after the season
2. Giancarlo Stanton suffers through an injury-plagued, disappointing debut season in New York, while Aaron Judge has a sophomore slump as the Yankees miss the postseason
3. This is finally the season Kevin Kiermaier doesn’t suffer a freak injury that puts him on the DL for two and a half months, he builds off the offensive progress he showed last year, Willy Adames comes up and challenges for AL Rookie of the Year like 2013 Wil Myers, and they lead the Rays to a Wild Card
4. The Cardinals reclaim the NL Central from the Cubs
5. Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour are all traded before the end of the season, and the Marlins set a new modern MLB record with 121 losses

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Please shorten this to like 50 words

9:10	Wes: What does Martin Perez need to do differently to become a #3 or better?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Miss a bat every now and then. He doesn’t have the command to be so contact-reliant

9:10	Juan: As of today, when do you think the Padres window opens?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll be written up as a dark horse in 2019 but I think it’s more like 2020

9:11	Sharp: Tony Watson is still on the market. Assuming regression in from a bad BABIP year and a maintenance of the peripherals from last year, he seems to be one of the best LOOGYs on the market. Are there really no playoff teams that need lefties?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get a job, and he’ll get a contract that looks familiar, given all the other reliever contracts

9:12	Brett W: How much is Lorenzo Cain going to get guaranteed this late in winter? Will fringe teams enter his market as a result of falling price?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: That’s the way it goes, right? Few teams interested at peak price, so the price tag drops, so more teams get involved, so the price tag goes up

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think Cain could have trouble getting his fourth year, but three years and an option at strong salaries ought still be reasonable

9:13	Bruce: Pujols has 105 more BB than Ks for his career. What chance does he have to keep it in the black until he retires?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll basically have to retire around the middle of 2019. Which, actually…

9:14	Sim: Unfortunately I am a Mets fan. Please tell me what we need to happen to make the playoffs this year. If our pitching staff stays healthy is that enough?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Healthy Syndergaard, Conforto comes back around May 1 showing few ill effects from surgery. Obviously there’s more to it than that, but when you have Syndergaard slotted in at No. 1 once or twice every week, it makes an enormous difference. Mets could definitely grab a wild card

9:15	LarryA: It surprised me that the Mariners own pro sports longest active non-playoff streak, but its not really that long ago when you consider that Jaromir Jagr already had 1079 pts the last time the mariners made the postseason, and hes still playing.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The last time the Mariners made the playoffs, Kevin Maitan couldn’t talk

9:16	Daniel Castro: I’m a toolsy infielder with a thunderous bat. Why do your coworkers hate me so?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Ask them

9:16	IsBrittonInYet: How should the Jays front office spend their rumored remaining 15 million? Is SP or OF more pressing?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Looks to me like it’s the rotation

9:18	Hack Wilson: If the Twins land Yu Darvish are the a WC favorite? What else can/should they do to strengthen their pursuit of the Indians?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Even with Darvish, I think the Twins are a ways back of the Indians, and I still wouldn’t think they’re as good as the Angels, who look like the best WC2 contender. Doesn’t mean, of course, the Twins would be screwed — we’d be talking about some narrow margins here. They mostly just need the lineup to keep up its improvements from last season and it helps to have three bad teams in the division

9:20	Jorge: Besides the Padres and brown, what’s the one throwback that a team is overdue for returning to?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I’m biased, but Mariners/trident

9:20	anonymous applicant: when do I get my rejection notice? the non-suspenseful suspense is killing me!

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not actually involved in the hiring process, but there were several hundred applications sent in, and every single one of them is being read. So it’s taking a while

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Expect a resolution within…two or three weeks?

9:21	Colin: Dave said Dellin Betances was the most likely player to be traded in the offseason. Do you think that will still happen?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not anymore. Change at manager probably made a difference

9:21	Dan: Do you think any free agents will actually hold out into the season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Not because they want to

9:21	Donaldson Ducks: Thoughts on Dave leaving for San Diego?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: I talked a lot with him throughout the process and the Padres really did make it impossible for him to turn the opportunity down. I know he never imagined leaving FanGraphs for a team, but it was simply too good to pass up. I was nervous about losing him as a colleague, given that he’s served as the face of FG, but now I’m confident that we’ll be fine, in large part because I love having Kiley back

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: And now instead of being a friend and a coworker, Dave is a friend and a source!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Impossible to know how well it will all go for Dave, but I believe in him as a department manager

9:24	Santo: If Ervin Santana (34 yrs old) can get another 500 Ks in 4 years before retiring, he will finish Top 50 career Ks in the history of baseball! Ervin Santana!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: God bless the strikeout era!

9:24	Jim: Jeff, cool chart with the player WARs sorted by first name. But you gotta freeze the header row, man!

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That process was all Ben. Complain at Ben!

9:25	Jason: When will the first major free agent sign, and how quickly will the rest of the dominoes fall after that?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say that Carlos Santana and Wade Davis kind of count as major free agents

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: But my gut feeling is that Hosmer will make a decision before too terribly long. And there will be a run on free agents in the weeks leading up to the start of ST

9:26	Brandon: Saw a BP writer say he prefers robles over acuna. why is he definitively wrong

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not

9:27	Mike M: Next 10 years – Ian Happ or Andrew Benintendi. Who ya got?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Benintendi

9:27	Lunar verLander: Smart move by you to turn off the hot stove while you were on vacation. You can turn it back on anytime you’d like.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Thanks! But I still have to get resettled. Maybe next Wednesday or Thursday

9:28	Eric: How much PA do you think Chris Taylor gets next year? And can he roughly repeat his 2017?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: His actual 2017 was presumably over his head, but he’s going to play as a near-everyday player, and he’ll be a good one. Probably something like 3 WAR, give or take

9:29	FL IBWIP: Happy Friday Jeff! Who is more likely of the three young shortstops listed to breakout at the plate this year? Tim Anderson, Orlando Arcia, or Addison Russell. My money is on Arcia if he is moved up in the lineup.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give Arcia a slight edge over Russell, with a gap between them and Anderson

9:29	Michael Kopech: Am I going to be in the majors before June? And how much WAR will I rack up by the end of the season?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I would expect Kopech more around August or so, but if he’s up before June, it’s because he’s learned to throw consistent strikes, and has become unhittable

9:30	Scott: If you were the Giants, would you feel okay with Chris Stratton as your #4 starter?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t actually written it yet because, you know, Chris Stratton, but I see things in there to like just fine for a back-of-the-rotation starter

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think there’s a huge difference between Stratton and Tyler Chatwood

9:31	Pie: I was also in Patagonia last week. I expected to see you, but then I realized it’s a massive place and also I don’t know what you look like

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I look like every other tourist in Patagonia. But I will say that while it is indeed an enormous place, most people collect in like the same three or four spots

9:31	Zac: Where do you rate on the scouting scale as an emergency wedding driver?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Possibility for snow on this drive, so, 30

9:32	gump: Are Patagonia trips less expensive than I’d think, are you way more frugal than we know, or does FG absolutely print money? Also, congrats!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Every year I make 1.5 million dollars

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: So actually, I don’t know what you think, but it’s not horribly expensive, and though the travel times suck, it’s pretty affordable once you’re down there to do a lot of cool stuff. That is, if you’re a hiker/camper/climber/whatever

9:33	Grover: If you had to bet on where Kershaw would be playing in 2019, would you take the Dodgers or the field?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers

9:34	Bobopedia: Given age, performance, arbitration status, etc., is there a case to be made that Roberto Osuna is the most valuable reliever in baseball?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a case, sure. But I don’t think age makes the same difference for pitchers as it does for position players, and would you rather have three years of Osuna or, like, five years of Chad Green?

9:36	Snid: How much do you put in to players who alter their swings for more flyballs? Passing whim? Effective?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Depends entirely on the player. For some guys it obviously works. For someone like Gregory Polanco, it can mess a guy up. I don’t think it’s a fix for every struggling hitter in the minors, but for a number of guys it’s something they’ve never thought about doing before, and the game clearly encourages it

9:37	Drew: Will the MLBPA ever get its head out it’s collective ass?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:37	Eso Sannis: What TV show really needs to get a reunion season?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Not a single one of them. Dead things should stay dead

9:38	Mike Scioscia: Hi Jeff, do I need to worry about my job? I’m pretty sure I can get the Angels into a wild card. I could use Yu Darvish but I don’t think Arte will let me have him.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Last year of the big contract. On the one hand, it’s probably about time for Eppler to find his own guy, but on the other hand, Scioscia might be the last of the old-school managers, with legitimate front-office pull. Hard to imagine the Angels without him

9:38	Henryv: If offered a job with the Yankees writing esoteric and snarky internal memos, what would be your fiscal demands?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Do I have to move?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If I have to move, $250,000

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If I don’t have to move, $150,000

9:40	John M.: Are the Cardinals seriously going to go into April with Gregorson as the closer? I can’t believe they would do this and lower the payroll after stating a need for a closer and saying they can push the payroll up.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Decent chance they begin with Gregerson as the closer but far, far lower chance that’s how they finish

9:41	Bork: Is this emergency ride to a wedding, your wedding? Are you chatting on your wedding day?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t do that, but I’ll note that Ben Lindbergh podcasted on his wedding day

9:42

nick in cleveland: Hi Jeff, welcome back! I’m trying to better understand the value of top prospects. For example, would a trade between the Indians and Marlins, swapping top catching prospect in baseball Francisco Mejia for Christian Yelich, be about fair for both sides, value-wise? An overpay by Cleveland? Underpay? I’m just not sure.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: My sense is the Indians would have to include another, say, two decent prospects. Maybe one pretty good prospect and a couple of fliers. Mejia is super promising, but Yelich is enormously valuable right now, and especially to a club like Cleveland

9:44	groucho: What’s could the cardinals reasonably do before the season to close the gap with the cubs?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Add some form of impact reliever

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I do not believe that impact reliever is Greg Holland

9:47	Jamie: Which of this year’s remaining FAs take a pillow contract and which should?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think Jonathan Lucroy might want to give it a year to try to reestablish his bat

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: …in a non-Colorado environment

9:48	Scott: If you were a GM and had to trust either Carson or Dave to pick a non-Top 100 prospect to become a good major leaguer, who would you pick?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Dave. But I’d trust Carson if it was a non-top 500 prospect

9:51	Sharp: For regular posters, do you start to remember their question types and team affiliations after a while?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: For a few of them, yeah, but I try not to look at the username because I don’t want to introduce any biases

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Like, I know that some friends of mine come to these chats and I don’t want to end up selecting all their questions just because we sometimes have beer together

9:53	Mike: Hunter Pence and 2 of Giants top 3prospects for Avi Garcia? Who says no?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: This would not be a good idea for the Giants

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Garcia is very good, and he has just two years left. Just go sign Dyson or Cain or something

9:53	Ham Porter: Which team is going to see the biggest year-over-year gain in Wins?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Giants, almost certainly

9:54

Oddball Herrera: “whether it counts as collusion if teams are just uniform in the way they evaluate available players” Hold on, so teams making logical decisions is evidence of collusion? Seems like the principle of collusion is preventing anti-competitive behavior (i.e. price fixing). This here is just the market being more rational.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know nearly enough to be able to speak to this with authority. I just know some about what’s being discussed. It’s only natural that teams would get to this point; it’s only natural that the players wouldn’t be thrilled by the development

9:54	Carl: More and more, I think the Pirates have a shot at contention this year, assuming Polanco and Marte play up to snuff. Am I nuts?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you’re nuts. Honestly, I think they’re still okay. I don’t think they’re good, but if, say, Tyler Glasnow gains three or four points on his strike rate, that’s a heck of a starting point

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates strike me as being similar to the Rays. In a situation where they keep playing for .500. That’s not good but that’s also not bad when you only need about 86-88 wins to make the playoffs

9:56	Dan Duquette: What pitchers should I target this offseason? Is there any hope for the Orioles to be competitive?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Slim hope. Get, I don’t know, Trevor Cahill? And maybe go after Luis Perdomo or something

9:56	Well-Beered Englishman: So what’s the emergency wedding story?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Good news is, I don’t have to give the ride after all!

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: But my fiancee does occasional wedding photography on the side and she nearly missed a shuttle connection. Which would’ve required that I go get her and drive her up to Mt Hood

9:59	Magic 8 Ball: Suppose Dodgers want to add Yu and need to clear $30M of Kemp’s salary. Which prospect(s) would the Dodgers have to add to Kemp in a trade package?