Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/12/18
9:04 |
: Hello friends |
9:04 |
: Welcome to Friday baseball chat |
9:04 |
: what do you make of the Dodgers having Urias on the LCS roster? |
9:05 |
: So the word is out that Urias is on the roster to replace Alexander. Both, of course, are left-handed |
9:07 |
: I think in one sense there’s a general disappointment that Alexander hasn’t been better. He’s a guy with an awful big platoon split. Urias isn’t so good against lefties, but he’s better against righties, and even though he had something of a lost season he might well currently have the fresher arm |
9:07 |
: Little doubt that, at or around 100%, Urias should be a more effective pitcher than Alexander is |
9:08 |
: I assume, therefore, the Dodgers have evaluated that Urias looks strong and ready |
9:08 |
: The Indians have four aces (plus Biebs) but are losing some key players in the bullpen and outfield to FA. Should and will they trade a starter to fill up their other holes? |
9:09 |
: I don’t think they’d have much appetite for depleting from their strength. And for whatever it’s worth, the key bullpen losses weren’t very effective this season, and the Indians still won the division running away. They’ll probably do that again in 2019, so for this particular offseason there’s minimal urgency |
9:10 |
: Is Aaron Boone a good manager? |
9:10 |
: Hell if I know |
9:10 |
: I bet he’s a much better manager now than he was in April |
9:11 |
: His season is going to be remembered for the decisions he made in the final two games of the ALDS, similar to how Buck Showalter’s season was remembered for not bringing in Zach Britton, but that’s obviously an oversimplification |
9:11 |
: The Yankees’ players could tell you whether Boone is a good manager. I don’t know what they think in private. As far as the ALDS decisions are concerned, I’m sure Boone and the front office will have some long and pointed conversations |
9:11 |
: Hello jeff. Remember that while you could die, you shouldnt |
9:12 |
: Well I should eventually |
9:12 |
: How obnoxious do you find parents who name their kids Geoff? |
9:12 |
: Haven’t met one yet. Not my business |
9:12 |
: Mostly I just find any parents obnoxious |
9:12 |
: Take that, parents! |
9:13 |
: The conspiracy theory that the Yankees did not know what time the game started is ludicrous, but Gary’s lack of nail polish in the first and the non-metal cleats keep bothering me…will Fangraphs be addressing this mystery with one of its hard-hitting investigative pieces? |
9:13 |
: This feels like it would be right in Meg’s wheelhouse |
9:13 |
: I will note, for whatever it’s worth, I also didn’t realize the game started when it did! But then I’m just some idiot, and I don’t literally play for the Yankees |
9:14 |
|
9:14 |
: Good lord |
9:15 |
: I mean, yeah, it generally makes sense to get all the best players. But I don’t know what the Dodgers would want with Stanton and his contract. That thing is a looming disaster |
9:15 |
: Nine more years. He’s not going to opt out |
9:17 |
: Thoughts on Trevor Williams going into next season? |
9:17 |
: This won’t surprise you, but I think he’s got a lot of room to improve. Don’t love his peripherals, don’t love his platoon split. For the moment I think of him as a No. 5, maybe a No. 4 |
9:19 |
: You have to be so good to make me even begin to consider you might be a real soft-contact guy. Kyle Freeland makes me wonder. Trevor Williams, not so much. I think he’s an adequate pitcher who ran a low ERA |
9:20 |
: What do you think the Rays should do with Cron? Not sure he fits the roster too well anymore. |
9:21 |
: I’m not sure he does either after the way Ji-Man Choi finished. With a projected arbitration salary north of $5 million, it wouldn’t surprise me if Cron got Dickersoned. Useful player, better than a good number of 1B/DH types, but the Rays are going to need to rely on their flexibility, and at the end of the day, Choi is cheaper to keep |
9:22 |
: But there is a handedness issue — if the Rays feel a little too left-handed, they could try to move Choi instead. Doesn’t seem like them, though |
9:23 |
: as a Cubs fan, would Almora, Edwards and Mike Montgomery be not near enough to nab Whit Merrifield? |
9:24 |
: Yeah, that’s not happening |
9:25 |
: Merrifield is close to 30, yes, but he and Almora have the same club control remaining, and Merrifield is…better. And while Edwards and Montgomery have uses in the majors, they wouldn’t mean that much to a team in the Royals’ position. The Royals are thinking several years down the road |
9:25 |
: If the Royals trade Merrifield, they’re going to want to get longer-term assets. Not depreciating assets |
9:26 |
: Which free agent or trade have you been most wrongest about? I remember in the 90s thinking Cashman was a genius for getting Jeff Weaver from the Tigers. |
9:26 |
: I thought Nelson Cruz in Seattle was going to be a catastrophe. Instead he was durable and amazing for four consecutive seasons |
9:27 |
: Cruz just kept on beating the shit out of the ball. Didn’t think that was going to be the outcome |
9:27 |
: I love baseball chat |
9:27 |
: I do too. Easiest part of the job |
9:27 |
: And the one part of the job where I can control how long it takes! |
9:28 |
: What do the Rockies do this offseason? There are seemingly quite a few pieces on the FA market that could be useful to them (Pollock, McCutchen, Grandal, and even Harper makes a lot of sense payroll concerns aside). But it seems like the FO is pretty content to just sit on their hands and let their pieces develop as is. So ultimately we will just see them re-sign CarGo to another one year deal, right? |
9:28 |
: Right — there’s always the question of what the Rockies will do, versus what the Rockies *should* do. They’re not always in alignment |
9:30 |
: I wouldn’t be shocked if they tried to keep LeMahieu. And, honestly, Ottavino too, since he was so important for their bullpen and they seem to like familiarity |
9:31 |
: They’ll need an outfielder and I could easily see them placing the high bid on someone like McCutchen. Dahl has earned an everyday job |
9:32 |
: As for what they do at catcher, they might just stick with Wolters+. Go the Red Sox route and just completely give up on getting any offense |
9:33 |
: What happens with Domingo Santana? Is he broken, or does he get back to the ’16 version of himself? |
9:33 |
: Christian Yelich took all of his power |
9:35 |
: Santana, in a lot of ways, was similar to what he was in 2017. He hit the ball just as hard on average, and his launch angle hardly moved. But so much of his contact was either too high or too low on the bat. He didn’t square the ball up enough. Was strong in Triple-A, so I don’t think he’s lost the skill |
9:36 |
: It’s also worth noting that Santana seemed to make some defensive strides. Not so much of a liability anymore |
9:36 |
: But my guess for this offseason is that Santana will get dealt somewhere he can be guaranteed a regular job. Milwaukee is just crowded, and someone else would like to roll the dice here |
9:37 |
: Do you see the Yankees signing Harper/Machado? Neither? |
9:37 |
: I figure they’ll get one of them |
9:37 |
: Machado, of course, being the easiest fit for the roster as constructed |
9:37 |
: I wouldn’t say the Yankees’ Machado odds are beyond 50% — the Phillies are out there, too — but I do have the Yankees as my early favorite |
9:38 |
: Andujar’s terrible defense creates a ready opening |
9:38 |
: What development will you find more interesting, who wins the WS of the remaining four teams or where Machado and Harper end up? |
9:38 |
: The former |
9:39 |
: I think Machado and Harper are going to end up with two of a small number of possible destinations. I doubt there’ll be a surprise |
9:39 |
: But I will be *very* interested in how their contracts are structured. This is going to require a lot of creativity |
9:40 |
: If you’re the Yankees, and assuming you are definitely signing one of them, do you make a play for Machado or Harper? One fits better defensively, the better fits better offensively. |
9:40 |
: I’m not even sure Harper is better than Machado offensively |
9:40 |
: He *probably* is, but it’s not definite. And it’s close |
9:41 |
: If you’re the Astros do you go with Gattis or Straw for the last spot in the ALCS? |
9:41 |
: Straw, I think |
9:41 |
: Gurriel and White are already right-handed, like Gattis is, and it’s not like they’re going to be doing a lot of pinch-hitting |
9:43 |
: Could ATL and TEX swing a trade centered around Mazara and one of Gohara/Fried/Allard? ATL needs a COF and has a surplus of SP prospects while the converse for TEX. |
9:44 |
: I think that’s the kind of trade the Braves should be looking to make, but I’m not certain the Rangers would go for this one — they need pitching like few other teams, but they also need…everything. Their outfield without Mazara isn’t good. So the Braves would have to blow them away, I imagine |
9:44 |
: If the Dodgers are found guilty of actual US crimes, won’t 28 other teams also be found guilty with any digging? (The Os may have skipped Latin American recruitung for a reason) |
9:44 |
: I can hardly begin to speculate on just how deep this might end up going |
9:45 |
: But remember we did see the Red Sox get penalized for something just about everyone does |
9:46 |
: And the Orioles do have a fully-rostered Dominican affiliate |
9:46 |
: For what it’s worth, if it’s worth anything, when I’ve asked around the response I’ve gotten is that the Dodgers are probably covered since they fired their criminals years ago |
9:47 |
: This could end up being a blockbuster story, or it could easily fizzle, at least as far as newsworthiness is concerned |
9:48 |
: What changed that caused the significant drop in Astros WS odds between the last day of the season and the first day of the CS? |
9:48 |
: We updated the depth charts into playoff mode |
9:48 |
: More usage of the top starters, top relievers, top position players, etc. Less depth |
9:49 |
: Hey Jeff! What was your impression of the Cubs’ second half offensive woes and how much of it Davis should’ve been responsible for? |
9:49 |
: One thing I keep coming back to is that the 2017 Cubs had a wRC+ of 108. The 2018 Cubs had a wRC+ of 107 (non-pitchers) |
9:49 |
: Obviously, the 2018 Cubs went in the wrong direction over time, but their best position player was also playing through a shoulder injury, which would stand to have a detrimental effect on his hitting |
9:50 |
: I don’t know what happened to cause Contreras to crater, but I suspect he might’ve been hurt, too |
9:50 |
: That all being said, the Cubs front office knows all this. I don’t think any team ever *wants* to fire a new coach. So they must’ve seen some reason. I don’t think they’d do this just for PR |
9:51 |
: What prospect(s) would the Rockies have to package with Ian Desmond to get someone to take that contract? |
9:51 |
: We’re talking about $41 million of dead money |
9:52 |
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ : That’s the equivalent of a pretty damn valuable prospect |
9:52 |
: Obviously they’re not going to want to package Desmond with Brendan Rodgers |
9:53 |
: Maybe they could do it as like Desmond, Yency Almonte, and Peter Lambert or something |
9:54 |
: Send it all to one of the dreadful rebuilding teams that has the ability to take on money |
9:55 |
: Does the Addison Russell situation make Machado a more attractive target for Cubs than Harper? |
9:56 |
: It makes it an easier fit, for sure |
9:56 |
: Hard for me to see Russell playing in that uniform again |
9:58 |
: What kind of deal do you see Pollock getting? My Rangers need a CF and a RH’ed bat next year. |
9:58 |
: Who knows what the market is going to look like this winter, but I could see Pollock signing for something like three years and $40 million. Solid all-around player but he’s going into his age-31 season and he had a worse second half |
9:59 |
: I don’t think he’s likely to end up in Texas. It’s possible, given the free-agent musical chairs, but the Rangers aren’t going to spend a lot, and they aren’t going to win for a few seasons yet |
9:59 |
: Chili Davis canned. Do you think that hitting coaches actually do anything these days? |
9:59 |
: I think some hitting coaches can be great coaches for certain hitters. But being able to help one guy does not mean you could also help every other guy |
10:01 |
: When debating the decision to fire Chili Davis from the Cubs, some fans point to the fact that the Cubs’ wRC+ only declined from 101 to 100 from 2017-2018. But others point out that their runs scored dropped from 822 to 761, despite their baserunning supposedly improving. So was their hitting significantly worse or not? |
10:01 |
: Run-scoring dropped across the board, in large part because there were fewer home runs |
10:02 |
: The Cubs went from second to fourth in runs in the National League |
10:03 |
: I’d put that on worse hitting with runners in scoring position — their wRC+ dropped from 99 to 88 |
10:06 |
: What should Cleveland do about the outfield because at the moment it is kind of brutal? |
10:07 |
: First thing should be placing a call to Tampa to see if they actually have any interest in moving Kiermaier |
10:07 |
: Second thing should be lamenting that they didn’t trade for Pham |
10:08 |
: Third thing should be calling San Diego to see about Franmil Reyes |
10:09 |
: In fact, call it Reyes and Travis Jankowski. One-stop shop. Throw in Kirby Yates and you’ve got a little blockbuster brewing |
10:10 |
: My beloved Dodgers are being investigated by the Dept of Justice for trafficking in persons. Am I wrong to question my allegiance? |
10:11 |
: Not necessarily. Human rights should always trump everything else |
10:12 |
: But I’d advise giving this time to play out. I think the odds are pretty good a lot of this was preexisting. Which, well, that would still be the Dodgers, but not the *current* Dodgers. And a team loyalty is about more than the people in charge at any given moment, anyhow |
10:14 |
: It’s tough, though, because if we’re going to be honest, every organization acts in certain ways that the majority would find disagreeable. The business side of business is ugly when you’re talking about businesses this big. When you expand your interests and knowledge beyond just what happens on the field, you start to see how sports are deeply messed up |
10:14 |
: What do you think about a rule change to make the second strikeout end an inning? That would make low k (fun) players more valuable and TTO (boring) guys less valuable. It would also increase the value of high K pitchers. |
10:14 |
: No |
10:15 |
: Hi Jeff, you smell terrific! What happens with JMart this offseason? Where does he go? What does he fetch? What does it mean for him in 2019? You’re my only hope for answers! |
10:15 |
: Thank you! |
10:15 |
: I think the Mariners would be one kind of obvious fit |
10:16 |
: But while he’s club-controlled forever, remember that he’s not of much defensive utility. The market frowns on players of this sort |
10:16 |
: So Jose Martinez, even though he’s a clear trade candidate, isn’t likely to bring the Cardinals a haul |
10:16 |
: Hot Take – The Rays will win 95 games next year |
10:16 |
: Warm take, at least |
10:17 |
: Going to be very interesting to see if they become serious Realmuto suitors. It seems like a clear fit, but doing that would be aggressive for them |
10:17 |
: Do you think folks are over-rating the Astros or under-rating the Red Sox? I’m hearing most prognosticators predicting an easy series win for the Stros. Seems to me that having home-field advantage and winning 108 games in a pretty tough division should count for something. |
10:17 |
: The Red Sox are extremely good. The Astros are also extremely good. I think the Red Sox have a perception problem because people think David Price sucks and the bullpen is a disaster. Neither is true |
10:18 |
: The Astros have a definite bullpen advantage. And, sure, we’d all like to see Price pitch better in the playoffs. But this is a close series, especially if Carlos Correa isn’t 100% |
10:18 |
: Does Seattle have enough of a core to keep trying to win now by loading up on short-term free agent deals to fill holes (but maybe leaving the few remaining prospects alone so the eventual rebuild does not take 20 years)? |
10:19 |
: They can keep trying, but their best realistic outcome would be making the playoffs as a massive underdog. Think this year’s A’s or last year’s Twins |
10:19 |
: Which then probably means you get one playoff game on the road, then you’re toast |
10:20 |
: The Astros aren’t going to be toppled anytime soon. The Mariners are stuck |
10:20 |
: What WS match-up would you prefer to see? HOU-LAD, HOU-MIL, BOS-LAD, or BOS-MIL? |
10:21 |
: I like the idea of a repeat attempt against a fresh challenger. So that would mean Astros-Brewers. But there’s not a bad combination in there. These are four excellent teams |
10:21 |
: It would be interesting to have the Red Sox’s vulnerable bullpen against the Brewers’ vulnerable rotation |
10:22 |
: Shouldn’t the Cardinals be counted more highly as contenders for Machado or Harper? The left side of the infield and RF have been in constant flux for them the past few years. They badly need a big bat. And they were willing to spend big on Heyward and Price, who are not nearly as good. They certainly make more sense than the SFG for example |
10:22 |
: Maybe this is bad analysis, I don’t know, but my gut feeling is that Harper and Machado both want to play under brighter lights |
10:23 |
: What is your elevator pitch for Edgar for the Hall of Fame? |
10:23 |
: “Best player ever at his position. Don’t overthink it.” |
10:23 |
: Any big mountaineering plans for the off season yet? |
10:24 |
: The offseason means the dead of winter, and the weather in winter rarely cooperates, but we always do a winter ascent of St. Helens when there’s a window. It’s fun and terrible |
10:24 |
: Late spring is when the climbing season really begins |
10:25 |
: Will Caleb Ferguson get a chance to start next year or is his role set |
10:25 |
: I think he’ll get a chance to start — he’s 22 years old, and this year’s usage was more out of necessity |
10:26 |
: But given his limited repertoire, he might turn into one of those multi-inning reliever types |
10:27 |
: He obviously made a very successful transition to the bullpen |
10:27 |
: Do you think Jed Hoyer would be interested in the Giants (or Mets/Orioles) Jobs or is he likely going to be Theo’s right hand for the rest of his career? |
10:28 |
: At some point I imagine he’d like to break away but I’m not sure this is the time. Lots of questions about the freedom one would have working with the Mets or Orioles, and whoever takes over the Giants will be inheriting a wreck. You’d have to start almost completely from scratch |
10:29 |
: If Dodgers win the WS this year- is the move we’re going to look back on and say that was the quiet move that won it for them getting David Freese? |
10:29 |
: Doubt it. They’ve made like a thousand moves |
10:29 |
: Anyone destined for 1st Base who’s not currently playing that position? |
10:29 |
: Miguel Andujar? |
10:29 |
: Rhys Hoskins! |
10:30 |
: i’d like to like to go to a baseball game. can we make attending a baseball game fun and affordable again? |
10:30 |
: How free are you on Tuesday nights? |
10:30 |
: There’s a way to do it that isn’t prohibitively expensive. You just have to avoid the concessions. There’s no way to get any kind of good deal at the concessions |
10:32 |
: Best food truck in Portland? |
10:32 |
: I can’t promise it’s the best, but I love La Morenita on Hawthorne, and the owner family is wonderful and sweet |
10:33 |
: If you think the Stanton contract is a ‘looming disaster’, what do you think a reasonable contract for him is? |
10:33 |
: Much shorter |
10:33 |
: Jeff, I can’t remember a time when the team with the best regular season record felt like such a consensus underdog in a playoff series. I don’t disagree! But it’s weird, right? |
10:34 |
: A little bit |
10:34 |
: But the Astros won 103 games of their own, plus they’re of course coming off a 2017 championship, plus they had a better run differential than the Red Sox, plus they had a better BaseRuns record than the Red Sox |
10:35 |
: And as noted earlier, this is bullpen season, and the Astros’ bullpen is great. The Red Sox didn’t make theirs better. The Astros added Ryan Pressly (and that other dude) |
10:35 |
: Who are free agents or trade targets the Rays could go after this offseason with the low payroll on tap for next season? They have lots of prospects they could lose to the Rule 5 draft, so they might as well trade some of them to upgrade at weaker positions. Can you give me names? |
10:35 |
: Realmuto right now is the big one to me |
10:35 |
: I might be suffering from tunnel vision |
10:36 |
: But that would be the clearest giant upgrade, and it would also allow for what we can call a consolidation or concentration of talent |
10:38 |
: what sort of deal does JD go after? High paying pillow deal to get out there again after 2019, or does he take as many years as he can (he’s 32 after all)? |
10:39 |
: I can picture a big one-year salary that’s followed by a vesting option or two based on, say, 500 plate appearances |
10:40 |
: Can you have two vesting options in the same contract? |
10:40 |
: I think so |
10:41 |
: Think that’s what Iwakuma and the Mariners did |
10:42 |
: Let’s say 1yr/$18m and two vesting options for the same salary. Something like that |
10:42 |
: Rays are a bet to contend next year, but do you see them being able to add something of value? |
10:42 |
: They can if they want to |
10:42 |
: God knows they have the pieces, and they’re going to have some money to play with |
10:42 |
: Giancarlo had a fine year and will probably get the same BS bullseye on his back from now on that A-Rod used to have, but it wasn’t 2017 good. Is his contract back underwater? |
10:43 |
: Definitely. He’s back to striking out 30% of the time |
10:43 |
: do the Cubs get more of a reputation for analytical player development than they deserve? in the NL, the Dodgers unearthed Max Muncy and Chris Taylor, and the Brewers have made savvy signings and stretched value out of minor leaguers. the Cardinals churn out 5 win rookies every year! but the Cubs still seem highly reliant on FA signings, most of which have been poor — what gives? |
10:43 |
: There’s definitely something interesting to be written about how so many of the Cubs’ big moves have backfired. This isn’t a one-year blip |
10:44 |
: The Cubs are still benefiting from having so many good young position players graduate around the same time. That they’re still so good now is a testament to how amazing that core has really been |
10:44 |
: Do you ever hang out with Rob Neyer, Maury Brown, or any other Portland-area baseball writers? |
10:44 |
: I see Rob every now and again. Same goes for certain others. I see Matthew Kory constantly. We are great friends |
10:45 |
: The thing is that he likes beer and hockey, and I *also* like beer and hockey |
10:45 |
: Just me, or is it unusual the way the Cubs seemed to directly say that players were unsatisfied with Chili Davis? |
10:46 |
: Gotta justify a firing somehow |
10:46 |
: Especially since they just brought him in a year ago |
10:47 |
: It’s rare to see 700 plate appearances now. It’s even rare to see 600. What is considered regular playing time? |
10:47 |
: 500 plate appearances? |
10:48 |
: This year, 72 players got to 600. Ten years ago, it was 91. Ten years before that, 102 |
10:50 |
: Just saw that Didi Gregorius is undergoing Tommy John surgery. That came out of nowhere |
10:51 |
: Looks like the Yankees are expecting a return to the field early next summer. Gregorius should be good to go for the bulk of 2019, but this obviously only increases the Machado potential |
10:51 |
: I want a controllable TOR arm this winter but outside of Corbin, who’s even available? |
10:51 |
: Been brainstorming a three-way trade that could send Syndergaard to San Diego |
10:51 |
: That’s as far as I’ve gotten |
10:52 |
: Can you share your last text or email from Dave Cameron? Was it about Hosmer? I bet it was about Hosmer. |
10:52 |
: It was about an hour and a half ago. It’s about connecting with my fiancee, because right now Dave and my fiancee are hanging out at the same airport |
10:53 |
: How boring is that! |
10:53 |
: But you asked |
10:53 |
: Any chance that Gio is starting tonight to get a righty heavy lineup, and will give way to chacin after 1 inning? |
10:53 |
: Yes |
10:53 |
: Is there a more interesting/exciting trio of players to watch right now than Trout, Ohtani, and Simmons? |
10:53 |
: Meant more back when Ohtani was still able to pitch |
10:54 |
: Betts, Sale, and Martinez? |
10:54 |
: Bregman, Verlander, and Cole? And Springer? And Altuve? And Correa? |
10:55 |
: Would Schwarber catch if he were traded this offseason to another team? |
10:55 |
: No |
10:55 |
: It’s just been too long |
10:55 |
: What kind of return does Whit Merrifield bring in if the Royals choose to go that route? |
10:55 |
: Looking for two talented pitchers close to the majors |
10:56 |
: Will Matt Chapman ever bat .300? |
10:56 |
: .300 is dying |
10:56 |
: Chapman isn’t likely the kind of hitter who’ll do it |
10:56 |
: With Pedroia´s issues, do you see the redsox trying to use Betts in a more Zobrist-like mode? I think he still could play a decent 2B |
10:56 |
: He’s the best defensive right fielder in the game. Virtually impossible to imagine |
10:57 |
: What do the Royals do with Nicky Lopez? Emergence of Mondesi seems to block him in AAA |
10:57 |
: Merrifield is a trade candidate |
10:57 |
: As a Mets fan, tell me why Chaim Bloom isn’t the perfect GM candidate |
10:57 |
: Can’t. He is |
10:58 |
: Going to be a matter of whether he wants to work with the Wilpons |
10:58 |
: All right, I need to get rolling |
10:58 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days |
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Greg’s question at 10:53 may well speak to an ongoing theme of this NLCS. Counsell is going to try and negate the Dodger depth and platoon advantages by flipping his starters early in games. How Roberts responds will be interesting to watch. Starting Puig against left-handers could be a first step. Production from Grandal and Hernandez will also be keys to this series.
Actually Counsell started Gonzalez so he could spring Woodruff on an unsuspecting Kershaw.