Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/21/14

October 21, 2014

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: All right, so the queue should be sufficiently built up

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series fever?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series delay fatigue?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels like forever since baseball!

9:09	Comment From GSon Right on time.. only 8 minutes past..

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Which is basically right on time, for Tuesdays

9:09	Comment From a fellow Sullivan Do you ever get called Sully, and do you hate it

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: High school, and it was just nice to be acknowledged

9:09	Comment From Guest Yay World Series!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’m excited! It’s going to be exciting! This year more than ever I’ve struggled with the idea of figuring out just what a World Series championship means, but I think by having actual baseball I can stop myself from overthinking it

9:10	Comment From David So what’s your official WS projection?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: My official World Series projection is basically the FanGraphs World Series projection. But I’m feeling Giants in 6, for reasons I can’t explain because now as I’m finishing this sentence I’m feeling Royals in 7

9:11	Comment From Keith Tkachuk more impressive- cardinals NLCS runs over the past decade, or Giants WS run over the past 5?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals have made the NLCS nine times since 2000. Giants have made three World Series in five years. I’m considerably more impressed by the former

9:14	Comment From Bruce If you were Rays management, and the dodgers wanted Maddon, What return would you ask for?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I’d ask for a legitimate quality prospect

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: And then things would be reduced from there. John Farrell got, what, Mike Aviles?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: It would be interesting, hypothetically, if they could get something structured around Van Slyke, but that would involve more than just a manager

9:16	Comment From GSon 28 days to win 11 games.. why can’t the schedule be better?..

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The schedule can be better

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Although it’s worth remembering the schedule wouldn’t seem so bad if the series weren’t ending so quick

9:16	Comment From Kent Brockman What is your favorite color on a bee?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Yellow

9:17	Comment From Guest How far will Terrance Gore’s walk off home run in Game 7 travel.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: 185 feet, on the fly

9:17	Comment From Tony Has anybody ever written, or do you have a guess as to how many times Barry Bonds “Should” have been intentionally walked, by sabermetrics

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: this exists http://www.tangotiger.net/w…

9:18	Comment From Hambone Giants defense with pitchers: 34.5 Def. Clicking NP: -1.5 Def. Am I doing this wrong? Can pitcher defense be this meaningful or accurate?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: By DRS, the Giants were -5. Their pitchers were +2

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: That Defense value you’re looking at is for purposes of calculating WAR, and it includes a very heavy positional adjustment for pitchers batting. If you just want to get right to the defensive stuff, you should click over to the more detailed Fielding tab

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I know this stuff is confusing but in my defense, I didn’t design it

9:20	Comment From Boston Phan Why aren’t rangy outfielders leveraged in large OFs?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Better question for MGL than me, since he’s the one who left that comment. But I suspect that it’s a matter of just not covering more ground than they would in an ordinary outfield, since an ordinary outfield is already big and gaps already exist

9:23	Comment From Joe What’s the rule on eligible players who weren’t picked for their teams’ 25-man WS rosters? Can they still hang in the clubhouse/dugout, help coaches, etc.?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Would appear they can hang out in the dugout. I’m not sure if there are limits in terms of the number, but Raul Ibanez has basically been an inactive Royals cheerleader

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: http://nypost.com/2014/10/2…

9:24	Comment From Xolo Considering that they’ve swept their way through he playoffs so far, is Kansas City hurt at all by playing a 6 or 7 game series?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Huh?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I guess they’d be hurt in that it’s implied that they’ve lost in said series

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t lost yet

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t quite understand the question and they are equipped for a series that goes more than 4 games

9:26	Comment From Drew How much money have the Royals added to their bottom line in the last month? What are the odds they turn that added revenue into some free agent spending to try and take the ALC from the Tigers for the next five years?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.kansascity.com/s…

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: “Every night the Royals host a playoff game, they make a little more than a million dollars. That’s pure profit, money the team did not put into its 2014 budget.”

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: So over the course of the month, the Royals will have made a few extra million dollars. Now, I mean, that basically just pays off like one year of Jason Vargas or Omar Infante, so it’s not like this is a huge amount of money they’re pulling in, but the organization overall is in better health and I’d expect them to spend more to reflect that

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not like the Royals are suddenly likely to be competitive for James Shields as a free agent. Ultimately, they’ll still be what they are

9:28	Comment From mtsw Are we so sure no team ends up grossly overpaying Nick Markakis? He seems like he has incredible potential to be a “placate the fanbase” signing for some lousy, rich team in February.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: What fan base would be placated by a guy who hit .276 with 14 home runs?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Front offices are smarter than that and Nick Markakis isn’t going to be some kind of major PR boost for a mediocre team that isn’t the Orioles

9:31	Comment From Guest Hey, when is the Fangraphs player of the year going to be announced?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I actually thought it was supposed to happen already

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: So right now I’m double-checking

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Welp! Let’s just say, soon. I don’t have time to email Dave right now and wait for a response

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The surprise adds to the mystique

9:33	Comment From Boston Phan Why does Buster Posey have to be the new Derek Jeter? Why do we need a new Derek Jeter?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what you’re talking about

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Buster Posey isn’t the new Derek Jeter

9:33	Comment From #KeepNotGraphs Why does Carson have a Wikipedia page and you don’t?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Carson has a stalker and I don’t

9:33	Comment From Guest Are you ok with the 2-3-2 format?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’m okay with everything about the playoffs

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not very demanding

9:33	Comment From Boston Phan Do you think Ned Yost will continue his more liberal RP usage next season or is this just for the postseason?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: This usage would be unsustainable during a 162-game regular season, so, Yost is going to be a lot more cautious and “ordinary” in 2015. It’s also worth noting that the big three wouldn’t have thrown so many innings this month if the Royals weren’t winning every single game by a close margin

9:34	Comment From Keith Tkachuk How much can James Shields help his FA $ by pitching up to the Big Game James Hype this WS

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not much. He’s already been mediocre in October and teams don’t make judgments based on these things anyway

9:35	Comment From Connor non World Series question: will Jim Johnson ever pitch in the Major Leagues again?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s still a guy with a mid-90s sinker

9:35	Comment From Jared The word dynasty is being thrown around a lot with respect to the Giants, I think its valid if they had made the playoffs in 2011 and 2013. If they win this one do you think dynasty qualifies?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t a dynasty by definition have to be continuous? Last year the Giants lost 86 games

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not a dynasty, they’re just a team that’s been good

9:36	Comment From THE average sports fan In other sports playing great in the postseason defines a career. Baseball does not feel that way to me. Would a monster series change your opinion of any player? Would a terrible series?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: A series is only 4-7 games. Sometimes 3-5. No, my opinion wouldn’t be changed at all, because we have so much more information about players, outside of what they do for a week in a given October. For guys who amass sufficiently large playoff sample sizes, like all those Yankees, then there’s meaningful stuff in there, but usually it’s just a handful of data we don’t need

9:37	Comment From Edge O What kind of contract does V Mart get?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Too big of one

9:38	Comment From Matt You are the Kansas City Royals. Through magical means you are allowed to trade your current spot in the World Series with the Angels for Mike Trout(and his contract). Do you do it?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, I do it. With Trout, I’m playing a lot of competitive baseball for a long time

9:39	Comment From Terrible Ted Pitcher/batter match-up you are most looking forward to in the WS?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: None specifically, but I’m looking forward to all the Herrera/Davis/Holland innings. Those are the most compelling pitches that will be thrown

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I feel absolutely terrible for Salvador Perez for when he eventually has to face Sergio Romo

9:40	Comment From Steve Does Friedman in LA end all hope for the Padres/Dbacks/Rockies?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: No?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the D-Backs are basically taking care to destroy their own hope, but Friedman doesnt’ change that much given what the Dodgers already were

9:40	Comment From Bob Hamelin Puig, Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, Van Slyke, Pederson…..what are the Dodgers going to do about their OF situation? Who gets traded?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be a lot of calls about Kemp this winter. It’s time for Ethier to be dumped and he’ll go away when the Dodgers agree to eat enough money. The rest can survive together if necessary for at least a season or so

9:41	Comment From Guest Which coach would bring back the biggest haul in a trade?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Maddon or Bochy?

9:42	Comment From Guest what do you enjoy about working as a baseball writer vs what you think working in a front office would be like?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: As a baseball writer I get to have a life and a girlfriend and hobbies

9:43	Comment From Guest Do you think the Phillies trades their starters this off-season?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: All of them?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Lee isn’t getting moved until he’s healthy. Hamels will be in play but I can’t predict whether Amaro will be more reasonable than he was during the summer

9:45	Comment From Connor You’re Dan Duquette. You have to resign Cruz, Markakis and Miller, but can only keep one. Who do you keep?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Cruz for a qualifying offer

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: If he ends up with a lot more than that, Miller

9:46	Comment From mtsw More likely to be a productive player next season: Alex Rodriguez or Ubaldo Jimenez?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s a 30-year-old with a fastball in the 90s. Alex Rodriguez is a 39-year-old who slugged .423 before sitting out a whole year.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what Ubaldo would look like as a reliever

9:47	Comment From Xolo Am I the only one who thinks Maddon to LA would be a trainwreck? I feel like he’s a guy who might get caught up being a celebrity.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You are probably not the only one who thinks that, but there are not very many of you

9:49	Comment From Bob Hamelin Which free agent is going to get the craziest deal this offseason?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Hanley Ramirez? Victor Martinez will have a lot of potential to look bad, but I think Hanley is going to get something even longer and I dont’ know about his sustainability

9:50	Comment From Bruce Will Licecum get an inning this series?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: At least not an important one. You can’t have Lincecum pitching out of the stretch with the Royals’ ability to run

9:50	Comment From Guest 28 days to play up to 19 games is a bit long.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: You need to have some built-in protection for weather postponements. The playoffs could stand to be quicker, but there are limits, practically speaking

9:52

Comment From Guest
Thoughts on this playoff idea?: 3 division winners and 5 wild cards in each league. Replace the wild card game with a college world series-style double elimination pool and the top 2 make the CS (or top 4 make the DS). This gives more excitement, slightly more fairness, and feels more organic than the one game play in.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: So everyone’s treated equally, regardless of how they got in?

9:52	Comment From mtsw Given that MLB teams (unlike NFL or NBA) make most of their money from local TV and ticket revenue, why not add a couple expansion franchises? A new MLB franchise in Brooklyn would prob generate $1B plus, no?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably not too far from expansion. A third team in New York makes an awful lot of sense, although there are going to be hurdles getting that by the Yankees and the Mets. They wouldn’t be thrilled, and I don’t know how that would be settled

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see how it goes if the NHL first decides to add another team to Toronto

9:53	Comment From Bob Hamelin What’s up with Billy Butler and can he bounce back? It has to be pretty rare for a 28 year old hitter to just fall apart, right?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He had a 110 wRC+ in the second half

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: His career mark is 117

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: But his power has dropped, and while he is 28 years old, let’s just say that Lorenzo Cain is also 28 years old, and Butler doesn’t have the same kind of 28-year-old physique

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a shock if Butler’s declining and out of baseball by 31 or 32. He’s not a long-term-dependable type

9:55	Comment From Guest why is baseball

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: why are us

9:55	Comment From Ed How do you handle the argument over whether the “best” team is the WS winner or the team with the most wins over a 162 game season? Particularly with someone who has no idea what SSS means.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Well thankfully I don’t spend much time at all involved in baseball arguments

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: But lately I’ve started to really wonder what “best” even means. Best when? Best by design? Best by execution? Best if you adjust for injuries? Best in April, or best in October?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Royals have been arguably the best team in baseball since the All-Star break. How much should it matter that they weren’t that good before then?

9:56	Comment From cardsjason Last week you said the Astros should try to trade CHRis Carter this offseason. Likely fits? What do you think he could net?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I just think he’s a guy whose market the Astros should explore, as long as other teams are interested in sources of right-handed power. NL teams would probably stay away, but Carter would be an alternative to Victor Martinez for teams who dont’ want to pony up $70-80 million. The Mariners would be interested, given their DH vacancy and familiarity with Carter’s exploits

9:57	Comment From Jaack Barry Bonds should throw out the first pitch whenever this series is in SF. And then flip off Bud Selig.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not very nice

9:58	Comment From Gila Monster Dave wrote about the value of mediocrity concerning the Royal, but it seems like the Giants are the real definition of a solidly mediocre team who is always in it, without being a top 5 team in baseball and things fall their way. Do you agree?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Well I don’t agree that the Giants have been mediocre — I think of mediocre as being even worse than average — but I do agree that the Giants have built a team that’s generally competitive without being clearly elite

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Even when they won 94 games, they were tied with the wild-card Braves