Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/21/14

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: All right, so the queue should be sufficiently built up

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series fever?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series delay fatigue?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels like forever since baseball!

9:09
Comment From GSon
Right on time.. only 8 minutes past..

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Which is basically right on time, for Tuesdays

9:09
Comment From a fellow Sullivan
Do you ever get called Sully, and do you hate it

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: High school, and it was just nice to be acknowledged

9:09
Comment From Guest
Yay World Series!

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’m excited! It’s going to be exciting! This year more than ever I’ve struggled with the idea of figuring out just what a World Series championship *means*, but I think by having actual baseball I can stop myself from overthinking it

9:10
Comment From David
So what’s your official WS projection?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: My official World Series projection is basically the FanGraphs World Series projection. But I’m feeling Giants in 6, for reasons I can’t explain because now as I’m finishing this sentence I’m feeling Royals in 7

9:11
Comment From Keith Tkachuk
more impressive- cardinals NLCS runs over the past decade, or Giants WS run over the past 5?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals have made the NLCS nine times since 2000. Giants have made three World Series in five years. I’m considerably more impressed by the former

9:14
Comment From Bruce
If you were Rays management, and the dodgers wanted Maddon, What return would you ask for?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I’d *ask* for a legitimate quality prospect

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: And then things would be reduced from there. John Farrell got, what, Mike Aviles?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: It would be interesting, hypothetically, if they could get something structured around Van Slyke, but that would involve more than just a manager

9:16
Comment From GSon
28 days to win 11 games.. why can’t the schedule be better?..

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: The schedule can be better

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Although it’s worth remembering the schedule wouldn’t seem so bad if the series weren’t ending so quick

9:16
Comment From Kent Brockman
What is your favorite color on a bee?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Yellow

9:17
Comment From Guest
How far will Terrance Gore’s walk off home run in Game 7 travel.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: 185 feet, on the fly

9:17
Comment From Tony
Has anybody ever written, or do you have a guess as to how many times Barry Bonds “Should” have been intentionally walked, by sabermetrics

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: this exists http://www.tangotiger.net/w…

9:18
Comment From Hambone
Giants defense with pitchers: 34.5 Def. Clicking NP: -1.5 Def. Am I doing this wrong? Can pitcher defense be this meaningful or accurate?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: By DRS, the Giants were -5. Their pitchers were +2

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: That Defense value you’re looking at is for purposes of calculating WAR, and it includes a very heavy positional adjustment for pitchers batting. If you just want to get right to the defensive stuff, you should click over to the more detailed Fielding tab

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I know this stuff is confusing but in my defense, I didn’t design it

9:20
Comment From Boston Phan
Why aren’t rangy outfielders leveraged in large OFs?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Better question for MGL than me, since he’s the one who left that comment. But I suspect that it’s a matter of just not covering more ground than they would in an ordinary outfield, since an ordinary outfield is already big and gaps already exist

9:23
Comment From Joe
What’s the rule on eligible players who weren’t picked for their teams’ 25-man WS rosters? Can they still hang in the clubhouse/dugout, help coaches, etc.?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Would appear they can hang out in the dugout. I’m not sure if there are limits in terms of the number, but Raul Ibanez has basically been an inactive Royals cheerleader

9:24
9:24
Comment From Xolo
Considering that they’ve swept their way through he playoffs so far, is Kansas City hurt at all by playing a 6 or 7 game series?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Huh?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I guess they’d be hurt in that it’s implied that they’ve lost in said series

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t lost yet

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t quite understand the question and they are equipped for a series that goes more than 4 games

9:26
Comment From Drew
How much money have the Royals added to their bottom line in the last month? What are the odds they turn that added revenue into some free agent spending to try and take the ALC from the Tigers for the next five years?

9:26
9:26
Jeff Sullivan: “Every night the Royals host a playoff game, they make a little more than a million dollars. That’s pure profit, money the team did not put into its 2014 budget.”

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: So over the course of the month, the Royals will have made a few extra million dollars. Now, I mean, that basically just pays off like one year of Jason Vargas or Omar Infante, so it’s not like this is a huge amount of money they’re pulling in, but the organization overall is in better health and I’d expect them to spend more to reflect that

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not like the Royals are suddenly likely to be competitive for James Shields as a free agent. Ultimately, they’ll still be what they are

9:28
Comment From mtsw
Are we so sure no team ends up grossly overpaying Nick Markakis? He seems like he has incredible potential to be a “placate the fanbase” signing for some lousy, rich team in February.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: What fan base would be placated by a guy who hit .276 with 14 home runs?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Front offices are smarter than that and Nick Markakis isn’t going to be some kind of major PR boost for a mediocre team that isn’t the Orioles

9:31
Comment From Guest
Hey, when is the Fangraphs player of the year going to be announced?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I actually thought it was supposed to happen already

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: So right now I’m double-checking

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Welp! Let’s just say, soon. I don’t have time to email Dave right now and wait for a response

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: The surprise adds to the mystique

9:33
Comment From Boston Phan
Why does Buster Posey have to be the new Derek Jeter? Why do we need a new Derek Jeter?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what you’re talking about

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Buster Posey isn’t the new Derek Jeter

9:33
Comment From #KeepNotGraphs
Why does Carson have a Wikipedia page and you don’t?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Carson has a stalker and I don’t

9:33
Comment From Guest
Are you ok with the 2-3-2 format?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’m okay with everything about the playoffs

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not very demanding

9:33
Comment From Boston Phan
Do you think Ned Yost will continue his more liberal RP usage next season or is this just for the postseason?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: This usage would be unsustainable during a 162-game regular season, so, Yost is going to be a lot more cautious and “ordinary” in 2015. It’s also worth noting that the big three wouldn’t have thrown so many innings this month if the Royals weren’t winning every single game by a close margin

9:34
Comment From Keith Tkachuk
How much can James Shields help his FA $ by pitching up to the Big Game James Hype this WS

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not much. He’s already been mediocre in October and teams don’t make judgments based on these things anyway

9:35
Comment From Connor
non World Series question: will Jim Johnson ever pitch in the Major Leagues again?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s still a guy with a mid-90s sinker

9:35
Comment From Jared
The word dynasty is being thrown around a lot with respect to the Giants, I think its valid if they had made the playoffs in 2011 and 2013. If they win this one do you think dynasty qualifies?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t a dynasty by definition have to be continuous? Last year the Giants lost 86 games

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not a dynasty, they’re just a team that’s been good

9:36
Comment From THE average sports fan
In other sports playing great in the postseason defines a career. Baseball does not feel that way to me. Would a monster series change your opinion of any player? Would a terrible series?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: A series is only 4-7 games. Sometimes 3-5. No, my opinion wouldn’t be changed at all, because we have so much more information about players, outside of what they do for a week in a given October. For guys who amass sufficiently large playoff sample sizes, like all those Yankees, then there’s meaningful stuff in there, but usually it’s just a handful of data we don’t need

9:37
Comment From Edge O
What kind of contract does V Mart get?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Too big of one

9:38
Comment From Matt
You are the Kansas City Royals. Through magical means you are allowed to trade your current spot in the World Series with the Angels for Mike Trout(and his contract). Do you do it?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, I do it. With Trout, I’m playing a lot of competitive baseball for a long time

9:39
Comment From Terrible Ted
Pitcher/batter match-up you are most looking forward to in the WS?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: None specifically, but I’m looking forward to all the Herrera/Davis/Holland innings. Those are the most compelling pitches that will be thrown

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I feel absolutely terrible for Salvador Perez for when he eventually has to face Sergio Romo

9:40
Comment From Steve
Does Friedman in LA end all hope for the Padres/Dbacks/Rockies?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: No?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the D-Backs are basically taking care to destroy their own hope, but Friedman doesnt’ change that much given what the Dodgers already were

9:40
Comment From Bob Hamelin
Puig, Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, Van Slyke, Pederson…..what are the Dodgers going to do about their OF situation? Who gets traded?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be a lot of calls about Kemp this winter. It’s time for Ethier to be dumped and he’ll go away when the Dodgers agree to eat enough money. The rest can survive together if necessary for at least a season or so

9:41
Comment From Guest
Which coach would bring back the biggest haul in a trade?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Maddon or Bochy?

9:42
Comment From Guest
what do you enjoy about working as a baseball writer vs what you think working in a front office would be like?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: As a baseball writer I get to have a life and a girlfriend and hobbies

9:43
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Phillies trades their starters this off-season?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: All of them?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Lee isn’t getting moved until he’s healthy. Hamels will be in play but I can’t predict whether Amaro will be more reasonable than he was during the summer

9:45
Comment From Connor
You’re Dan Duquette. You have to resign Cruz, Markakis and Miller, but can only keep one. Who do you keep?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Cruz for a qualifying offer

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: If he ends up with a lot more than that, Miller

9:46
Comment From mtsw
More likely to be a productive player next season: Alex Rodriguez or Ubaldo Jimenez?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s a 30-year-old with a fastball in the 90s. Alex Rodriguez is a 39-year-old who slugged .423 before sitting out a whole year.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what Ubaldo would look like as a reliever

9:47
Comment From Xolo
Am I the only one who thinks Maddon to LA would be a trainwreck? I feel like he’s a guy who might get caught up being a celebrity.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: You are probably not the only one who thinks that, but there are not very many of you

9:49
Comment From Bob Hamelin
Which free agent is going to get the craziest deal this offseason?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Hanley Ramirez? Victor Martinez will have a lot of potential to look bad, but I think Hanley is going to get something even longer and I dont’ know about his sustainability

9:50
Comment From Bruce
Will Licecum get an inning this series?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: At least not an important one. You can’t have Lincecum pitching out of the stretch with the Royals’ ability to run

9:50
Comment From Guest
28 days to play up to 19 games is a bit long.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: You need to have some built-in protection for weather postponements. The playoffs could stand to be quicker, but there are limits, practically speaking

9:52
Comment From Guest
Thoughts on this playoff idea?: 3 division winners and 5 wild cards in each league. Replace the wild card game with a college world series-style double elimination pool and the top 2 make the CS (or top 4 make the DS). This gives more excitement, slightly more fairness, and feels more organic than the one game play in.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: So everyone’s treated equally, regardless of how they got in?

9:52
Comment From mtsw
Given that MLB teams (unlike NFL or NBA) make most of their money from local TV and ticket revenue, why not add a couple expansion franchises? A new MLB franchise in Brooklyn would prob generate $1B plus, no?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: They’re probably not too far from expansion. A third team in New York makes an awful lot of sense, although there are going to be hurdles getting that by the Yankees and the Mets. They wouldn’t be thrilled, and I don’t know how that would be settled

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see how it goes if the NHL first decides to add another team to Toronto

9:53
Comment From Bob Hamelin
What’s up with Billy Butler and can he bounce back? It has to be pretty rare for a 28 year old hitter to just fall apart, right?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: He had a 110 wRC+ in the second half

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: His career mark is 117

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: But his power has dropped, and while he is 28 years old, let’s just say that Lorenzo Cain is also 28 years old, and Butler doesn’t have the same kind of 28-year-old physique

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a shock if Butler’s declining and out of baseball by 31 or 32. He’s not a long-term-dependable type

9:55
Comment From Guest
why is baseball

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: why are us

9:55
Comment From Ed
How do you handle the argument over whether the “best” team is the WS winner or the team with the most wins over a 162 game season? Particularly with someone who has no idea what SSS means.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Well thankfully I don’t spend much time at all involved in baseball arguments

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: But lately I’ve started to really wonder what “best” even means. Best when? Best by design? Best by execution? Best if you adjust for injuries? Best in April, or best in October?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals have been arguably the best team in baseball since the All-Star break. How much should it matter that they weren’t that good before then?

9:56
Comment From cardsjason
Last week you said the Astros should try to trade CHRis Carter this offseason. Likely fits? What do you think he could net?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I just think he’s a guy whose market the Astros should explore, as long as other teams are interested in sources of right-handed power. NL teams would probably stay away, but Carter would be an alternative to Victor Martinez for teams who dont’ want to pony up $70-80 million. The Mariners would be interested, given their DH vacancy and familiarity with Carter’s exploits

9:57
Comment From Jaack
Barry Bonds should throw out the first pitch whenever this series is in SF. And then flip off Bud Selig.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not very nice

9:58
Comment From Gila Monster
Dave wrote about the value of mediocrity concerning the Royal, but it seems like the Giants are the real definition of a solidly mediocre team who is always in it, without being a top 5 team in baseball and things fall their way. Do you agree?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Well I don’t agree that the Giants have been mediocre — I think of mediocre as being even worse than average — but I do agree that the Giants have built a team that’s generally competitive without being clearly elite

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Even when they won 94 games, they were tied with the wild-card Braves

10:00
Comment From Mike
In Philly, some are…let’s go with, lamenting…that the Phils could be where the Royals are now, had they only hired Mike Arbuckle instead of RAJ after 2008. I’m just curious (and maybe you don’t know), but how much has Arbuckle had to do with the Royals success? All of their “key pieces” (Gordon, Hosmer, Butler, Dyson, Perez, Moustakas, Holland) seemed to have been in place before he got there. You could say Shields and Davis were acquired after he got there – but I’ve always heard that Arbuckle was more involved in draft than trades.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s about a lot more than Mike Arbuckle

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: And you’re talking about teams in just completely different situations. The Royals had to be completely rebuilt, on a budget. The Phillies were a winner right away, with a ton of money to spend. Different organizations lead to different processes and while the Phillies would obviously be better off under different leadership, they weren’t in the easiest situation to navigate. All this has happened only after the Phillies had a tremendous competitive window

10:03
Comment From mtsw
If you were allowed to field 10 defenders, where would you put the 10th guy? What if you could only play 8, how would you arrange the defense?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Totally depends on the hitters but with a tenth guy, he’d play kind of a shallow outfield. With eight guys, I’d probably remove the last guy in the infield shift

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: If my pitcher is Kyle Davies, I remove the catcher

10:07
Comment From Fish
Can you point out some little teeny thing to look out for in the game tonight? Like where the catcher sets up against Mike Trout. Or how all of EE’s dingers come off pitches that missed in.

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: It’s harder with these teams. The Royals don’t have a single dominant hitter, and of the Giants’ really interesting hitters, Sandoval and Pence are practically un-prepareable. They’ll hit however they hit, and these guys don’t have weak spots that stand out like Trout up high. Posey doesn’t have much in the way of power over the outer half of the plate but the Royals were likely to try to pitch him there anyway

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: So the default is to say it’ll be interesting to watch if the Royals try to run on Bumgarner, if they can even reach base. Runners were 7-for-15 against him and Posey this year.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: There was only one steal attempt this year against Santiago Casilla. Three against Sergio Romo. Interestingly, six — all successful — against Jeremy Affeldt

10:11
Comment From Keith Tkachuk
I watched the highlight video of Sheets 18 K game. His 12-6 was an absolute hammer. wish I was old enough to remember watching sheets in his prime.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting how differently we consume baseball now from how we did 10 or 15 years ago

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Like, I agree with you about Sheets’ curve, but we’d know so much more and think of it in so much more detail if he were pitching currently

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Used to be, we’d just pick our favorite pitches because of how they moved

10:12
Comment From mtsw
Has the excitement of the World Series prevented the chat from filling up your queue with fake Mookie Betts trades?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: This is the closest I’ve seen so far

10:13
Comment From Guest
The best MLB player in 2022 is currently in the majors, in the minors, in college, or in school (school includes Latin academies)?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s look at the five best MLB players in 2012, as if it were October 2004

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout was in…middle school? High school? School.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Robinson Cano was in the minors

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Buster Posey was in high school

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: David Wright was a big-league rookie

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Ryan Braun was in college

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: So let’s go college-age, in the low minors

10:16
Comment From Tanana
Who has time these days to buy season tickets for an MLB team and attend 81 games? I’ve always been amazed by that level of dedication and wonder how any normal person can make that work.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think normal people *can*

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: but normal people do have friends and coworkers and access to an online ticket market

10:16
Comment From mtsw
Not sure if KC did this but Baltimore was offering priority access to postseason tickets in exchange for deposits on 2015 season tickets. Its likely the financial benefit of that is potentially as great as the gate.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Probably every team does that. After a deep playoff run, season tickets pick up, which isn’t surprising. Attendance is that lagging indicator, and so forth

10:18
Comment From Mike
I feel like, way back, when there were 2 divisions and the AL regular season winner met the NL regular season winner, you were much closer to a “true champion” (i.e. the best team over the course of the season). I know it will never happen (because of money), but wouldn’t it be nice to see one of the best teams (over the 162 game season) win instead of just the team that got hot at the (MLB’s choosing) “right time”?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Last year the 97-win Red Sox beat the 97-win Cardinals

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: All the best teams have opportunities and all the best teams are favored against inferior teams. I’d personally rather have too many teams in the playoffs than too few. That’s a choice we all make individually, but I like playoff craziness and I like room for upsets. With fewer teams, what’s an upset?

10:20
Comment From Guest
Tavares, Bourjous, Martinez for Stanton, who says no?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Marlins

10:20
Comment From Guest
Do you wake up and just do the chat? Hard to imagine you wake up much earlier than 9 most days working from home.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: If I didn’t wake up until 9 I’d be behind every single day. There’s a whole other coast out there and I need to stay up to speed. I try to wake up around 7 and get out of bed around 7:30

10:21
Comment From Tom
Is Buster Posey a HOFer?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: no, he’s a starting catcher right now for the Giants. they’re in the World Series!

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: As for down the road, the odds are against him, but that’s only because he has to last a hell of a lot more years. He’s off to a promising start, obviously

10:22
Comment From Hank G.
If the Giants win the Series, I expect some articles about a dynasty, or front-office geniuses, or other things in that ilk. Can you think of any other good, but not great team that put together a clump of championships like that?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Well, again, do you care more about 3 World Series in 5 years, or 9 NLCS berths in 15 years?

10:23
Comment From Mike
Will Robertson pass Papelbon in “Most guaranteed money for a closer” this winter?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:23
Comment From Eddie Collins Fanboy
What do you think the WAR of a player would be if he successfully put down a sac bunt or sac fly every PA (600 i guess) of the season? Assuming 0 WAR from defense of course

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: So you mean the player made 600 outs

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: That is a terrible player

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Shame on whoever played him so much

10:24
Comment From Beau
If a pitcher bounced three 95 mph fastballs to Pablo Sandoval how many would he swing at? How many would he hit?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: People don’t swing at fastballs in the dirt. People do swing at slower stuff in the dirt. Sandoval would swing at the slower stuff

10:24
Comment From Guest
Do you think the Cubs will rank #1 in farm system?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely

10:26
Comment From Player Development Nerd
Last I checked, Carlos Martinez is a young pitcher with an electric arm, a nice repetoire of pitches, no injury history, and a great minor league track record as a starter. In spite of this, he seems greatly under-utilized with the Cardinals. What would you do with him? It seems like a waste to designate him for the 8th inning or as a spot starter for yet another year.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: It’s attractive to try to turn him into something in the mold of Dellin Betances. At issue is he’s not close to being that dominant

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: But as a starter, he hasn’t thrown consistent strikes, and the Cardinals obviously have concerns about his durability. I’m generally in favor of at least giving these guys chances, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Martinez doesn’t have it in him to start 30 times a year. Then you try to be more imaginative with your bullpen roles, so maybe he can throw 80-100 innings

10:30
Comment From gump
is there a reason to believe in A Miller’s walk rate even though it’s only been good for about a season and a half?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not 7% good, but it’s probably 9-10% good

10:31
Comment From Guest
Why do we care so much about the postseason anyway? Here’s Dave writing a mea culpa because the Royals outperformed their baseruns and went on a well-timed tear. Lose three more games in April (games that “don’t count”) and this tear wouldn’t have even been possible; go on this tear in mid-May and no one cares. But it all matters equally. Why invest so much in luck and well-timed wins?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: The postseason’s fun. A lot of people care about it — a lot of people care more about it! — so we all have to try to figure out how we deal with it, relative to the regular season. At the end of the day this is all just supposed to be fun, and nothing more, so if we’re going to criticize the playoffs for being kind of arbitrary, what is the regular season? What is sports? We’re trying to perform science on entertainment. That leaves us in a weird position of trying to find answers where none probably exist, beyond “that was a good show”

10:33
Comment From Edge O
agree V Mart’s contract will be too big. As a Tiger fan I don’t want them to overpay. To they? or does someone else? And what do think it looks like?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think Dave has guessed as much as $80 million over four years? It’s appealing, his blend of power and contact, which is rare in the sport today. I’m trying to figure out the Tigers’ position; on the one hand they could act out of desperation and keep Martinez, and on the other they could look at Scherzer leaving and think, maybe it’s time to start making changes to be more good in the long-term instead of the short-term

10:34
Comment From Guest
“SHould” Barry Bonds have ever sac bunted?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no

10:36
Comment From Mike
Should the Phillies look at Colby Rasmus on a 1 year deal? To possibly flip him at the deadline. And if they do, do you think a place like Philly (where he’d pretty much just have to stay healthy to get playing time in the OF) would interest him – assuming he thinks he can get more guaranteed money next year?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure the future looks better for him — right now, he’s probably the best CF available, and down the road that’s not so certain. So he’s in position right now to find a decent three-year contract or so, if he’s feeling it, and while the Phillies make some sense the same could be said of a lot of teams and the Phillies clearly aren’t in position to win right away. That fit doesn’t seem likely to me

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be interesting to see if teams prefer Rasmus or, say, Peter Bourjos, who’s a different kind of frustrating

10:38
Comment From BigCommieMachine
Could a team JUST roster relievers? Just have relievers pitch in 2 sets of 4 every other dat of so. Wouldn’t this help them because relievers throw harder, no time through the order penalty, and you can always pick up relievers for cheap. This would allow you to spend more money/draft stock building a better offense.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Well, relievers wouldn’t throw that much harder if you kept trying to stretch them out

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: And you’d probably need to roster more pitchers than the current 11 or 12, depending. So it would be a challenge, and while maybe someday I could see a team composed mostly of 2-3 inning types, right now it’s impractical

10:40
Comment From Bumgardener
Bumgarner threw 217 IP with a 2.99 xFIP — what’s he doing wrong that he only has 3.6 WAR with those numbers?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: WAR includes a league adjustment that prefers the AL over the NL, and it also takes notice that Bumgarner pitches half the time in an extreme pitcher-friendly environment. Whether that actually helps Bumgarner all that much, that’s up to you to determine, but that’s WAR’s thinking. League adjustment and park adjustment

10:41
Comment From Bruce
Would you rather sign Markakis at 3/30 or whatever it will cost, or trade a B prospect for ethier and have LA pay 95% of his salary?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I’d take the almost-free Ethier

10:42
Comment From mtsw
If Jamie Moyer was coming up today instead of 30 years ago, would he ever get the chance to pitch in the majors?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: If his numbers were good enough. Josh Collmenter’s around. Tommy Milone, Jason Vargas, Kyle Hendricks…he’d never be a prospect, but the door would be cracked open

10:43
Comment From Guest
Most asked fangraphs chat question subject matter: Mookie Betts, Dodgers OF, or something people care about?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Beginning officially when the World Series is over, Mookie Betts

10:44
Comment From Guest
Which base coach would bring back the biggest haul in a trade?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Fun game: try to name five base coaches

10:46
Comment From Guest
Why doesn’t the Cy Young winner need to pitch for a playoff team? I mean, how Cy-Youngy could he be if he doesn’t take his team to the post season?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: MVP has the word “valuable” in it. The Cy Young award, itself, literally includes the word “outstanding”, and not valuable, so it goes to just the best pitcher, regardless of team circumstances

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, the Cy Young award *used* to say the word valuable, instead of outstanding. I don’t know what effect that migh’ve had on the voting though

10:47
Comment From Charles
What does the offseason look like for the cubs?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Busy

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Get a pitcher, get a catcher, fill in with role players to try to win 85+ games next season

10:47
Comment From Guest
Has anyone tried evaluating managers based on WPA over the course of a season, for the moves they make? Basically pitching changes, pinch hitters, maybe hit and runs/SB attempts? Those are the things we know are in a manager’s control, and we can quantify the impact those decisions had on game outcomes over a season.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: People have tried. It’s so not worth the effort. It doesn’t take you anywhere

10:49
Comment From Guest
Are the Kansas City Royals regressing at the most ideal time? According to 2015 Steamer, nearly everyone on the Royals is going to regress in the positive way while opposite is true for the Giants. Isn’t it possible the Royals aren “better” in the playoffs, it is just that we are seeing the true talent level of the Royals as a team.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I mean, most simply, the Royals’ true talent is not going undefeated through the playoffs against exclusively good other teams

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: But it does make sense that the Royals’ offense might be a little better than it looked during this past regular season, because teams and players develop and maybe Mike Moustakas actually *is* salvageable, you know?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: But at the end of the day we’re talking about eight playoff games, seven of which wouldn’t have happened if Josh Willingham hit a slightly different blooper, and the Royals have barely had to pitch guys beyond the guys they’ve wanted to pitch

10:51
Comment From Mike
Who is the next “great” GM in waiting? Outside of Coppolella for the Braves (since it kinda feels like he’ll be the hire for the Braves…eventually).

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: This is the guy Dave likes http://stlouis.cardinals.ml…

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I trust Dave on these things

10:52
Comment From A Pumpkin
Considering the challenges presented by the RF in SF, should Ned Yost consider starting Dyson and Cain (instead of Cain and Aoki) in games 3 & 4 against the Giants’ righties?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I think Yost likes the value added from having Dyson available as a high-leverage pinch-runner, and beyond that many of the issues with RF in San Francisco are issues of familiarity, which benefits no one on the Royals’ roster

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of full games of Gordon/Dyson/Cain, but I understand why Yost might prefer the normal alignment. Dyson has real value when he can be specifically spotted

10:54
Comment From Rated Rookie
What’s your take on the Taveras-Mozeliak-Matheny situation? Or, how would you sort things out in the Cardinals OF?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think Taveras was not a very good player in 2014 and his playing time reflected that

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay, phone call

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: The front office probably would have preferred that Taveras play more than he did, but he didn’t blow anybody away, and any issues the FO would’ve had with Matheny, they can work out over the offseason. Everything gets talked through, and it’s evident from the Cardinals’ commitment to Matheny that they don’t see this as a major stumbling block

10:59
Comment From Jimmy
Congratulations, Jeff! you have been named the new GM of the pittsburgh Pirates. Which of the following players do you tender in arbitration: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Pedro Alvarez, none of them, all of them, or two of them?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’d tender Alvarez and explore his trade market

11:00
Comment From Guest
Please handicap the (terrible) NL East for 2015.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, but 2-4 are very very close

11:01
Comment From Brian
Who is the current worst player in MLB?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Someone like Leury Garcia or Gerald Laird

11:03
Comment From VSpot
Is a Kemp for Hamels trade good for both sides? LA relieves the OF crunch, PHI gets a “youngish” star, LA gets a SoCal native for the rotation.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hamels is a valuable player. Kemp is a possibly valuable player. Philly wouldn’t/shouldn’t do that

11:04
Comment From mtsw
Given demographic changes and data that shows today’s young people want to live in center cities rather than suburbs, will the Braves regret moving out to Cobb County in 15 years?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: More and more money is coming from television deals, and besides, young people don’t have as much money as older people. You might call them suburban people

11:05
Comment From A Pumpkin
Who has the best hair in the World Series? Other than Dyson’s “zoom” cut, I can’t think of any that stand out.

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: The internet would tell you Pence, but the internet usually confuses best with worst

11:06
Comment From Brian
Kluber and Lindor for Betts and Xander?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Indians wouldn’t do it

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Not bad though

11:07
Comment From Brian
Carrasco’s trade value right now?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Highest it’s been in years

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Interestingly, he has just three years left. Still plenty, but you’d expect four or five off the top of your head

11:08
Comment From Mike
Are the Cardinals better off sticking with Jon Jay, or trying to ship him off with some other pieces to upgrade somewhere?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Not enough information provided

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Jay, however, is good. Not great, but he’s a good, perfectly fine guy to have in the middle

11:10
Comment From Quizmaster
Any time I hear about NYY/NYM being upset about BK expansion I think: wouldn’t any team be upset about a new franchise entering their territory? I don’t see why it would make a big difference that it’s 2.5M people for NYY/NYM to lose in BK or e.g. 3M for ATL to lose in Eastern Tennessee (if say Nashville got a team).

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Someone in Nashville is less likely to be a Braves fan than someone in Brooklyn is to be a Yankees/Mets fan

11:11
Comment From Guest
If you are the Yankees, what do you do? They have at least $172M on the books for 2015. They need a shortstop, and A-Rod insurance policy, and a couple of pitchers. Would you rather sign HanRam at SS for a year and move him to 3rd next year than a big name pitcher?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they need a big-name anything. They could try to trade for Brad Miller. I like most of the pitching options they have if Tanaka is actually healthy. They could try to bring McCarthy back. They’re going to be all right, and they don’t need Hanley Ramirez

11:12
Comment From Ken Cloude
This might be dumb, but how can we accurately calculate someone like Babe Ruth’s UZR?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: We can’t

11:12
Comment From A Pumpkin
What’s you favorite peripheral story of the WS? I like that Finnegan has the chance to be the first player to pitch in both the College WS and the WS in the same year.

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’m digging Ned Yost’s evolution. Is that a thing? Or is that too close to the action?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Finnegan’s story is pretty good, but to be honest I kind of heard enough about it after just the wild-card game

11:14
Comment From Jack
Presumably the Cardinals have 4 (or more) outfielders for the 2 non-LF spots. Who ends up somewhere else (either AAA or traded)?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Taveras in AAA if he’s not traded

11:14
Comment From chunderwunder
which one has a better outlook over the next 10 years: Red Sox or Yankees?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox

11:14
Comment From Rick
Would Michael Saunders, Brad Miller, Taijuan Walker, DJ Peterson & Dominic Leone be enough to get Giancarlo? If so, should the M’s do that?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Not enough

11:15
Comment From Brian
Which non Stanton player has the most raw power?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Baez or Harper, probably

11:15
Comment From Brian
If there was a competition to see who could hit a ball the furthest off a tee, who would win?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: See above

11:15
Comment From Richie Rich
With MadBum so good on the road, the Giants win tonight, right?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: With Kansas City undefeated in the playoffs so far, the Royals win tonight, right?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: All right, it’s time to get other stuff done!

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Something probably ought to be written before this World Series gets started

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/21/14 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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