Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/2/15

October 2, 2015

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is that yesterday Eno ran into a problem where the chat reached “capacity”

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: That was a mistake but I’m not sure if it’s been corrected yet so I guess we’ll just see

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Might be a small group today. Don’t know!

9:08	Comment From TKDC Where would you rank Boston and Atlanta’s front offices now in terms of saber-friendliness?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Boston’s higher. By a good amount, really. Many of the front-office staffers remain the same and Coppolella didn’t get any meaningful changes in responsibility

9:09	Comment From Bart yes, that happened to me, I couldn’t get back in to the chat with a “capacity” issue

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Based on early indications, might be happening again right now. Queue is slower than it has been in the past

9:10	Comment From Nick What’s your take on Championship Probability Added as an MVP metric?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: It’s creative and interesting and it adds a little something to the discussion, but most directly, it ignores position and defense and baserunning and whatnot. And more generally, I don’t know why we should have an award for the most “valuable” player. I think the intent is pretty clearly to have an award for the best player, because that makes the most sense, and things have just gotten warped over time

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: If the point were to reward valuable players on successful teams only, that would be written into the criteria

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: It feels like arguing about the Constitution

9:15	Comment From Cory S. Any guesses at who starts Game 1’s for Dodgers, Cardinals, or Mets? Plenty of options.

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw is the Dodgers’ best starter so that makes the most sense there. Martinez would’ve made the most sense for the Cardinals, but now I might just go Lackey. For the Mets, we know it won’t be Harvey and it shouldn’t be Matz, so it’s just up to deGrom or Syndergaard, and honestly to me it doesn’t matter which because they’re similarly terrific

9:17	Comment From MSW Ready to talk NL CY? In my super uneducated opinion, I think it should go to Greinke. Arrieta may be pitching better right now, but it’s a season long award, and Greinke has dominated from April to September, and for me, that’s the tiebreaker.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Greinke has allowed a .508 OPS. Kershaw, .524, and Arrieta, .515. Mix in a little bit of defense-related uncertainty and I swear to god you’ve got three identical choices.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: This is one of those things that’s simultaneously impossible to get totally right or totally wrong. There’s no way to solve it

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I admire those who try, because it’s interesting, but it’s probably not going to lead anywhere clear and unambiguous

9:20	Comment From Cube Jockey Pete Kozma has been on a major league roster for the entire season, and has zero extra base hits. No question, just amazed that a non-catcher position player could pull that off.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Kozma has zero extra-base hits for the season in 103 plate appearances. All-time record, according to the Play Index: 184, belonging to Jack O’Connor in 1906

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: More recently, Dwain Anderson had 144 in 1973. And in 2010, Mark Grudzielanek reached 119. Mark Grudzielanek!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Grudzielanek is the only player with more than Kozma since the turn of the millennium

9:25	Comment From Earls Ghost Jeff: Dan on Monday suggested that the Orioles should blow up the team and sell off all assets and rebuild. I’m in agreement–the farm system is very thin—but I think they should keep Machado and Gausman as a nucleus. What are your thoughts?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that’s totally necessary. They’re going to get hurt by free agency, but they’re not going to get devastated, and their performance has overall been all right despite maybe the toughest schedule in baseball. As a few teams have demonstrated this year, it’s possible to be a surprise contender, and I think total rebuilds are dangerous and only to be attempted by franchises in a desperate state

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s increasingly difficult to justify a complete overhaul. I know the competition is daunting, and it’ll remain that way, but the Orioles have pieces. Their pitching development has let them down, but they have a nucleus and they can be a .500 team next year. A .500 team can get to the playoffs

9:28	Comment From Xolo How do you feel about Desmond for 2016?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think he badly needs a new start

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Just needs to put this season behind him. I think next year he’ll again be a pretty good shortstop

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think he’s a long-term contract guy I’d love, but I think this season was more in his head than in his mechanics

9:32	Comment From JTT Lets say you have the first overall pick in the draft. There is a player that is guaranteed to post exactly 2.5 WAR every season, no more no less. Do you draft him? Or do you trust your scouting department and go for a guy with more upside but with no guarantee?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: That’s very close to the line, for me

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: At 2.5, I say you draft someone else, but at 3.0 I’d say you take that player, soooooo I guess that means my line is between 2.5 – 3.0, which is a very narrow margin

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of up to personal preference. Some people are all about upside and ceilings. I like those things, too, but I don’t want to underrate reliability and above-average production

9:33	Comment From Craig Who does home field matter to more LA or my Mets?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it matters more to either team, but I do think the Dodgers have the overall series edge, so the Mets want home field in order to counter that

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Actually, here’s an interesting factoid:

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Over the last five years, Dodgers have won .575 at home, .525 on the road. Normal-looking split

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Mets are at .475 at home and .499 on the road. Bizarre! Don’t want to make too much of that, but maybe it’s a thing

9:37	Comment From Nelson Some teams wont make it to 162 games played this year. Do the teams missing home games get some sort of compensation from the league?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Good question, actually. I don’t know. I doubt they get compensation, but I bet that annoys them

9:38	Comment From Brian Do you think Papelbon has the “capacity” to mend things with the Nats or are they going to have to make a bad trade to get him out of town?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I do think he has the capacity, and more than anything else I think the Nationals just need a new season with a new manager. But some of the damage is already done, in that the Nats are going to have to trade Storen. And it wouldn’t surprise me if they moved Papelbon, not that he’d be in demand. Could end up with an entirely rebuilt bullpen

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Remember, teams have won with Papelbon before. They aren’t mutually exclusive. But it would require better leadership

9:41	Comment From Jeremy The Dodgers don’t seem to care about home field vs. NYM. Do you see this more as a Saber minded decision or an opportunity for them to heal?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like they’re benching all their best players. The last game had Grandal, Gonzalez, Kendrick, Utley, Seager, Crawford, Hernandez, Ethier, and Anderson.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And then Jansen got the save. I’m sure the Dodgers would love home field.

9:43	Comment From joey how do you explain marco estrada?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Shallow fly balls and good defense

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He might’ve figured out a way to be another Chris Young. I’m not buying his low ERA, but he’s built himself to suppress BABIP

9:45	Comment From Brad Marchand What would be your best guess for WAR-figures of Hanley in Sandoval in 2016, assuming both stay in Boston and Hanley plays 1B?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give them a combined 3 – 4

9:45	Comment From Joemac Cubs should sign one ace, or two second tier starters?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not hurting for aces. They should accumulate depth

9:46	Comment From TKDC Do you think Bryce Harper knows that his slump likely will cost him a 200+ wRC+?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:48	Comment From AJ Any idea when the AL WC game would be played in case of a 3-way tie for the 2nd WC spot? Could the AL and NL WC times be swapped?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think in that instance you’d just have both wild-card games on the same day. No need to disrupt another game’s schedule due to American League chaos

9:49	Comment From Punch Stompson I’m come to the conclusion that A Gord should have gone for it. Cause, F it

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The most interesting thing would be to poll an audience that doesn’t know how the next at-bat ended up. Where we are now, we can’t help but be biased in some way by the fact that Perez got out

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No matter what, it would’ve been one of the most memorable plays in baseball history. I still think the Royals made the right call though

9:51	Comment From MSW Woohoo! More chances for my questions to be answered! Too bad I have like, nothing to ask… Let’s see, game 4 Mets starter – Bartolo or possibly injured Matz?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Matz unless his back is in really bad shape

9:52	Comment From Dipoto What should my first move be?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: assemble the rest of your front office

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: then re-sign Iwakuma to get the first one out of the way

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: going to be an offseason of finding depth and a catcher

9:53	Comment From Geralt of Rivia After the hiring of Dipoto do you believe he will choose ” his “manager next year and if so any hint of who could he possibly be?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know who it would be but I’d be surprised if Dipoto didn’t bring in a new face

9:53	Comment From Brian Does Ian Desmond warrant a qualifying offer?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely

9:53	Comment From Jeff I know it is a rough thing to rank, but rank the top 5 front offices in baseball?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly can’t do it. I could try, but I wouldn’t feel real good about any of the answers

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty tempted to put the Dodgers in first though

9:56	Comment From Pat Any moves you would like to see the Reds make this offseason? I know the Central is a gauntlet but any hope to be more competent next year?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: There’s some hope, and it starts with a healthy Mesoraco. The pitching situation obviously isn’t good but Iglesias, DeSclafani, and Lamb have shown something. If the Reds wanted, they could jump-start the rest of their rebuild by dealing Chapman and Frazier. Those moves would be unpopular but *this* is a team that could justify a fuller re-tooling

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m wrong though — maybe there’s not a big difference between the Reds and the Orioles. The Reds don’t have to tear the rest of it down. Chapman though, at least, should be put on the market, since he’s a one-year guy

9:59	Comment From Nick Wait, so when they decided to call the award “Most Valuable,” they really meant to say “Best”? What is this, a John Roberts Obamacare opinion?