Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/2/18

November 2, 2018

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Usually I’m late to start because of a pre-chat podcast. Today it was a pre-chat phone conversation with the boss! Always something

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: First Friday baseball chat in a while with no active…baseball. Weird feeling. Also weird that it already feels normal

9:09	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:09	Rays fan: Your last few chats have kinda got me drinking the Realmuto kool-aid, do you think an offer of Jesus Sanchez, Nick Solak, and Lucius Fox gets the Rays close?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I kind of feel like each one of those prospects would have to be one letter grade better

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Sanchez hasn’t yet done anything good at Double-A. Ditto for Fox. Solak had a strong year at Double-A but he’s still thought of as a lower-ceiling guy. Marlins would aim higher

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Wonder what would happen if you swapped Fox for Baz. That would yield some progress

9:13	stever20: Nats started the offseason really well with Rosenthal and Barraclaugh. How much more pen help do you think they need?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think they need at least one more clearly good reliever. Barraclough has trended downward, and while I like both Doolittle and Rosenthal, they very obviously have some elevated injury risk

9:15	Brodie Van Wagenen: What position players, if any, should I be targeting in free agency?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You can look at just about every position on the Mets and conclude that they could be settled. It requires you assume Peter Alonso is close, and that Jeff McNeil is good enough to stick

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps they could stand to upgrade on Guillorme. And they’d probably prefer not to be banking on a Jay Bruce rebound. But if I were them and if I were looking to spend, I’d err toward spending it on the pitching side of things

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Like everyone else, I don’t know why the Mets wouldn’t be interested in Eovaldi

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Expect to hear a whole lot about Eovaldi

9:20

Rick: If a free agent needs off-season surgery, where does he get the procedure performed? I assume his former team does not provide it, but do they refer him to someone else? And does the player just pay out of pocket at that point? (This latter point obviously isn’t a big deal for players who have already struck it rich, but it seems like paying for a significant surgery would be a substantial burden for minor-league free agents, non-tender candidates, etc.)

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: So, firstly, I’m not sure — I’m going to text some people right now to try to find out

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Secondly, one possible clue? https://www.mlb.com/news/free-agent-matt-garza-to-have-shoulder-surger…

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: “Garza’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, confirmed Garza will go under the knife with Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the same surgeon who repaired the torn labrum of another Brewers right-hander and CAA client, Jimmy Nelson, in September. After Nelson’s surgery, Brewers GM David Stearns said Nelson would miss a “chunk” of next season. Because Garza’s injury occurred while he played for the Brewers, head team physician William Raasch signed off on the procedure, according to Balelo.”

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The last sentence being the important one

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Still doing some googling in the meantime

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a relevant Reddit thread https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/3v8sj2/who_pays_for_greg_ho…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: And here’s something on Matt Harvey https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/19/sports/baseball/harvey-is-covered-l…

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: “If Mets pitcher Matt Harvey has Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, it will be paid for, partly, with workers’ compensation insurance. A partly torn ulnar collateral ligament like Harvey’s is considered a workplace injury, just as if he were a truck driver hurt on a loading dock.

The basic agreement between major league owners and players requires that teams pay the cost of injuries.”

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: That’s probably enough for now. Should move on to other questions

9:27	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: MLB @MLB BREAKING NEWS! @Bharper3407 has signed … to be on the cover of @MLBTheShow 19! 2 Nov 2018

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t stand the official MLB twitter account

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, I don’t know what it’s like to be young anymore

9:30	Mike: Hi Jeff! If you had to guess, which kind of contract do you think Corbin ends up with?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Spitballing here, I could see something like 4yr/$80m. Maybe with one of those fifth-year vesting options where it kicks in if he doesn’t have an elbow injury

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He’s put a lot of room between himself and Tommy John surgery, but he also doesn’t have a previous record of his 2018 performance level, and some teams are still going to be spooked by that inexplicable velocity drop

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: But, boy, you look at those strikeouts and you see a very good pitcher

9:32	AK: What was your favorite article you wrote during the 2018 season?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be completely honest with you here: I don’t know. I don’t have very good recall for the things that I’ve published. Even September feels like ancient history. It’s all gone

9:34	Trent: Does Sanchez for Realmuto straight-up make sense? They were closely ranked in Fangraphs’ 2018 trade-value rankings, but perhaps Sanchez’s stock has declined enough lately that the Yankees would have to add something?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I think it would make more sense for the Marlins than for the Yankees. If you’re the Yankees, there are obvious reasons to prefer Realmuto, but I think it’s still so difficult to forget about how good Sanchez was even just a year ago. And Sanchez provides two extra years of team control. I don’t think the Yankees are in a position where they need to act so urgently

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, as of this moment, Sanchez and Realmuto project to be almost the same in 2019. Maybe you think that isn’t making enough of what happened in 2018, but the track records matter

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Keep in mind that the biggest problem with Sanchez was a .197 BABIP

9:38	Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: What would be the most Royals free agent signing this offseason?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Hector Santiago

9:39	Mike: Now that the Mets seem to be going for it this year, are there any other mid rotation or better starters on the trading block?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If you really want to roll the dice, I bet you could get Danny Salazar from the Indians

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible that Robbie Ray becomes available if the Diamondbacks elect to step back

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Non-zero chance Marcus Stroman hits the market

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Dylan Bundy, perhaps

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Looks thin out there

9:43	Zonk: Cubs pick up $20 mil Hamels option, saving the Rangers on the $6 mil buyout they were on the hook for…..but Rangers take Smyly and his $5 mil AAV the same minute. Interesting, huh?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Smyly has a $7-million base salary for 2019, with another seven figures in incentives

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty clear the Cubs and Rangers were in contact, and this might’ve factored a little into the Smyly move. Made it incrementally easier to get Texas to take on the salary

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But then, I was just updating the Rangers’ depth chart last night, and, hoo boy, does that team ever need pitching

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: So they probably would’ve been interested in Smyly regardless

9:45	Not Scott Boras: With all this talk from teams that Bryce Harper will get $400 million, do you think the first team to offer $500 million gets him?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Yes. But it’s not going to get there

9:46	Xolo: The Padres are missing the big star other tankers had when they started graduating their prospects (Rizzo, Altuve, Freeman, etc.). Should they go out and get one to welcome Tatis and Urias and company to the bigs or wait fir those guys to welcome the younger guys in the system?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Remember they thought they were getting that guy in Hosmer

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: After they thought they were extending that guy in Myers

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: When the Astros got good, Altuve had only one strong season under his belt

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres would love to add a great player — their first great player — but they’re confident the great players are going to come out of their own system, starting any moment

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: This includes Mejia, of course, for whom they traded

9:49	Nick Mar – Cake is Good: What kind of deal does my namesake get?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Not great. First-half wRC+ of 137, second-half wRC+ of 88. He kind of went all 2017 Corey Dickerson

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Profiles similar to Jay Bruce a year ago, except that Markakis is also a few years older

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Could be one of those guys who stays on the market for a while. Thinking 2 years, $20-25 million

9:53	Pick Your Poison: What would you put your money on: Pujols gets to 3K games, 700 HR or maintains .300 career BA?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: oh god

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 308 games away, and he’s 67 homers away (not counting the playoffs)

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: His career average is .302

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I’d bet on the last one, with the understanding that there’s some chance Pujols and the Angels come to a financial agreement and he calls it a career before too much longer

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Between 2017 and 2018, his career average dropped from .305 to .302. He batted .245 over 465 at-bats

9:55	Southern Bleacher Bum: Thoughts on how many more seasons Kluber can be a top ten SP option? Thanks

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Two

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: His worst walk rate in any single month this season was 6%

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He commands the ball so well he should age fairly gracefully

9:57	Zonk: What should the Cubs do with Addison Russell? Is there trade value there? Does the situation change if Russell comes out with some contrition?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: My thoughts aren’t the same as everyone else’s, but the Cubs were probably growing frustrated with Russell even *before* the allegations and the suspension. So I’d take this opportunity to move on, even though it would mean selling Russell for pennies on the dollar in a cold, unfeeling baseball sense

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Russell’s bat has never developed. Now he’s got even bigger problems. I’d lose Russell and take the PR points

9:59	Warren: What should the padres do this winter? Just buy prospects and take flyers or should they start pushing chips in (I’m worried preller is leaning too far towards the latter)?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Dave is there! Dave is there to try to moderate Preller’s most extreme impulses