Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/18/14

November 18, 2014

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s live baseball chat

9:03	Comment From Guest On time!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: In one way!

9:03	Comment From Guest OMG! So much has happened! Tell me all about it!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: A bunch of teams did really dramatic yet reasonable things. Jays very reasonably committed to Russell Martin. Braves and Cardinals reasonably committed to a short-term/long-term value trade. Marlins are looking like they might decide to become a baseball team, which is overdue.

9:04	Comment From Bren Others have written about it, but how concerning to you is Collin McHugh’s massive reliance, 55%, on breaking balls?

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Probably, it increases his injury risk to some real extent. But I’d respond to that with, what would McHugh be if he threw a lot more fastballs at the expense of softer stuff? Would he be worse? Would he even be in the majors? If this is what it took for McHugh to reach the level and stick, he’d probably say it’s worth it.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Then there’s the matter of the Astros having people in the front office monitoring biomechanics so maybe McHugh isn’t even really in a danger zone

9:06	Comment From Henry Is Pablo Sandoval the right splash for the Padres to make?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Not as right as the Red Sox or Giants. Padres aren’t close enough, to me

9:06	Comment From Guest Now that the Jays have signed Russell Martin for 5 years, is 11th overall pick made by the Jays in last year’s draft, catcher Max Pentecost blocked? Would they be considering him for a corner outfield spot or first base?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: As a rule of thumb, teams don’t worry about blocking guys who have so far topped out in low-A. By the time Pentecost develops enough to break himself in — if that happens — Martin ought to be wearing down, and you could conceivably have something of a job share as Martin plays while mentoring the rookie. Not a concern to me.

9:09	Comment From Guest Do you think Walker and Miller could get Gattis and J-up? and then leave money to sign Hanley for the M’s

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: How right-handed do you want the Mariners to be?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It would be good talent leaving Seattle, but of all the places that could have use for Miller, Atlanta isn’t one. So that doesn’t work, unless they’re flipping Miller to somebody else

9:11	Comment From Bruce Why do you think no one has topped A-Rod 25mill AAV from 17 years ago? Was it that much of an outlier at the time, or are superstars just undervalued now

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Cabrera is getting something like $31m AAV of new money

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw’s up there. Rodriguez also got more than that in his second contract

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: But aside from the details, A-Rod was an outlier in that he was a free agent at a perfect age with a perfect player profile. He was amazing! And so young!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Coming off a 9.5-win season, turning 25

9:13	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw Did the Jays forget that Martin has been a .234 .332 .370 hitter the 5 seasons prior to this one?? (his BABIP was 60+points above his career avg)

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Martin was worth 4.1 WAR a year ago with a league-average batting line

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not paying him to repeat the way he just hit. Then he’d be a superstar. They’re paying him to be durable, good enough at the plate, and tremendous behind it

9:15	Comment From Jon What could Blue Jays get for package of Navarro and Sanchez?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Cole Hamels?

9:16	Comment From adam What does the Braves rotation look like on April 1 and how well does it perform?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re going to end up with Jon Lester. I could easily see them turning Gattis or Upton into a young starter, kind of like Taijuan Walker. If/when Beachy and Medlen return, it becomes a hell of an intriguing unit although not one that would be particularly trustworthy

9:19	Comment From Guest Cardinals or Nationals?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals, for the time being

9:19	Comment From YOLO What is the first thing Giancarlo buys with his $325 million.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Groceries

9:20	Comment From Lenard Thoughts on the La Stella trade? This basically means that some Cubs MI will be traded, correct?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it makes a trade dramatically more likely — La Stella probably isn’t a good player today, and he could return to the minors for more work. But the Cubs were already on high potential trade alert, so they’re obviously still a good candidate to move a man away

9:22	Comment From KyleZ Jays apparently got some money to spend. Who do you see them legitimately going after next? Do they Prioritize SP, RP, OF, or 2B?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: They still need to find a 2B or a 3B, but it seems like the next investment could well be a shutdown reliever

9:24	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw How much money would 2001 A-Rod have gotten in todays market?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: going through this process, he kind of breaks the math http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But basically without question he becomes baseball’s first $400-million man

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: To balance the fact that no one would want to pay what he’s worth for his peak years, he could end up with a deal that’s like 15 seasons long

9:26	Comment From Triple R When you wrote about Felix Hernandez’s clutch pitching a few months ago, how did you get those pitch type splits for bases empty/RISP? I can’t find that anywhere on Brooks

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.brooksbaseball.n…

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Upper right

9:26	Comment From Tom Chances Heyward signs with the Cardinals long-term?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: 25%?

9:27	Comment From adam What do the next three years look like for Billy Hamilton? Is the story a good one?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Something like 8 WAR or so. Obviously heavy on defense, never a threat at the plate. Useful enough, with improvements on the bases, and he should get even better at bunting. For now I don’t like how much he puts the ball in the air, for a guy who doesn’t have power

9:28	Comment From Me Do you have any problems with the deals being given right now?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Not really, within the economics of the game today. Now if you step back and think about a guy getting paid $325 million because he hits a little ball far away sometimes, that’s inconceivable nonsense, but they only get paid that much money because we can’t stop tuning in to sports

9:29	Comment From THE average sports fan I have seen many places discuss the issues David Wright had when he got hit in the head. Is this a legitimate concern in regards to Stanton?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s an issue. Tony talked about Casper Wells on the site today, briefly. As Tango put it on his site, it stands to reason no one gets better after getting hit in the head, and some guys seem to get worse, so on average it would be a negative effect

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The likely conclusion is that Stanton will be just fine, but there’s a non-zero percent chance it’ll at least take him some time to get comfortable again

9:31	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Say the Barves offer both Uptons in a trade. What could they fetch tethered?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing. B.J.’s negative value is stronger than Justin’s positive value, with one year of control left

9:32	Comment From Bruce Are you justified in guessing that every overpriced 1B/DH on the free agant market will sign with Seattle?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Have I done that?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Billy Butler feels likely, but that’s because he’s available and they’ve wanted Butler for years

9:32	Comment From Fan of any team thats not the Cards Should I be disappointed my team didn’t make a better play for Heyward? Seems like a pretty reasonable price, even at just one year.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It would definitely be interesting to know how many teams were in on that, and what might’ve been offered. Not that we’ll ever have a clue

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like the kind of trade most fans would be comfortable with their teams making. The Braves must see something fixable in Miller

9:35	Comment From Vslyke Let’s talk about the Braves’ other trades: do you think the Braves sold too low on La Stella? What about on Wren?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: La Stella’s the kind of guy who just doesn’t generate much in the way of market value, and Wren has two career home runs to his name. The latter is *probably* a good defensive fourth outfielder, and La Stella needs his offensive game to go perfectly in order to be about an average starting player. I’m a little confused by what the Braves intend to do now at second base, but I don’t think either player is really going to be missed

9:38	Comment From Tyler Lyons mom How much should I look into the fact that Tyler Lyons steamer projections are slightly better than Shelby Miller for next year?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: From a statistical perspective Shelby Miller last season was not good. That’s the kind of thing that leaves a guy with a not-good future projection

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: But Lyons probably also has a mixed rotation/bullpen projection

9:39	Comment From Chest Rockwell Let’s talk about the big one – Kyle Jensen to the Dodgers. Seriously though, is it likely the Dodgers can get Alexei Ramirez? It seems like a pretty good fit.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers are going to get a shortstop from somewhere. If not Ramirez, they could end up getting one of the Seattle guys in a bigger deal involving Matt Kemp

9:41	Comment From Diego Of all the mid-rotation pitchers available on the trade market (Kennedy, Norris, etc.), which brings back the biggest return?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Right now it feels like Kennedy

9:42	Comment From Shawn What does J Up get in FA vs J Hey?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Less. Clearly the better hitter, but clearly the worse defender, and more importantly, Upton is two years older than Heyward is

9:43	Comment From adam What do/should teams value more: a long relief guy like Petit or a shutdown 9th like Kimbral?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Kimbrel. If teams actually loved their long relievers, they’d be starters. Now, it changes if you think about the usage pattern for a guy like Betances — that’s pretty ideal — but Kimbrel has a lot of value and not many guys could like like Betances did

9:45	Comment From Jonas Who will get a bigger contract when they first hit free agency (or signs an extension): Harper or Heyward?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I think Harper, even when you adjust for inflation

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: That’s only a few years away, and Harper ought to enter his free-agency years as the superior bat

9:46	Comment From Stanatee the Manatee Does the Cards trading a starter say anything about Wacha’s health, you think, or is it just basic trading from a place of strength?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think they saw a chance to turn a guy with diminishing shine into one of the better position players in baseball. Miller has a lot of question marks. The Cardinals haven’t had trouble finding innings lately

9:47	Comment From Larry who would you take for the next 4 years, assuming equal salary: McCann or Martin?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I lean slightly to Martin. Interestingly, both project for a 111 wRC+

9:48	Comment From adam Are the high rates of Tommy John here to stay or will there be an eventual reduction?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: In the long term, they should go down, as we develop a better and better understanding of how these things happen. In the short term, rates will stay somewhat high, because they’ve long been somewhat high. 2015 probably won’t be as traumatic a year at the big-league level as 2014

9:50	Comment From Guest Who’s going to be worse at the end of their contract – Lester or Scherzer?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: aw, what the hell, I’ll say Lester

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: sorry for delay, phone rang

9:54	Comment From Bubbles Really liked your piece on the Stanton contract. Realize you didn’t talk much about it due to a lack of specifics, but in general how should we be thinking about an opt-out scheme like this? Will we see more of them for top-tier young players?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s a developing trend for younger players who sign long-term extensions http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a benefit for the player, and therefore not for the team. The player gets to decide how to maximize his money at the time that the opt-out kicks in. Now, the opt-out has value, so you can think of an opt-out as replacing a higher AAV, but I think right now teams are trying to figure out what the value of an opt-out really is. It might be they’re being given away too readily

9:58	Comment From John Cespedes or Napoli for Iwakuma a good deal for both teams?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Cespedes for Iwakuma would be about even. Iwakuma’s lower cost balances Cespedes’ lower age