Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/25/14

November 25, 2014

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Are we ready to baseball chat?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve given the queue a few minutes to get going and subsequently settle down

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk about god knows what

9:04	Comment From garth algar i fear change

9:04	Comment From CecilFieldersButtPlug well this looks funny

9:04	Comment From neal what the heck is this interface?????

9:04	Comment From Chest Rockwell Fancy new digs.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: It looks similar to me!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: But I am nervous on your behalf!

9:04	Comment From J Will Rockies hitters ever get credit for being good?

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: I like to think that we give them credit — we’re usually quick to note that wRC+ adjusts for Coors and guys who hit well with the Rockies tend to be good hitters. But there’s no way around it: there’s always going to be that “…but”. Always going to be a part of Rockies baseball, as baseball at that elevation is a different game from how it is elsewhere.

9:05	Comment From BBBQ Who do you think the Red Sox end up trading Cespedes for?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a specific pitcher in mind, but in my head I see him going for one of those other one-year types. An Iwakuma or a Latos or a Kennedy or something, with a prospect or money going in some direction to even things out. I don’t think Cespedes turns into a long-term asset.

9:07	Comment From Xolo What is Headley’s updated asking price?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sandoval minus a year or so. Not a worse player, just an older player. There’s a perception gap between the two, but teams should be smart enough to realize that doesn’t matter

9:09	Comment From Richard A new update to CoverItLive. Good or bad?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: It looks about the same to me, but from your standpoint I assume it is bad

9:09	Comment From Wesley What do the Sox have to add to a Napoli-Zimmermann trade?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Why would the Nationals want a first baseman?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: They just let a first baseman go to make room for a first baseman

9:10	Comment From SteveV How much does lineup “balance” matter? A balance of lefty and righty hitters. Is 3 good, say 1 at top, 1 in middle and 1 at the end of the lineup? Is 4 better or doesn’t it matter much at all?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately you just want to end up in a situation where you have the best players. Balance comes in as sort of a tie-breaker, where managers are more comfortable with a balanced attack than an unbalanced attack that leaves you susceptible on particular days. Within individual games, you don’t really want to have lefties batting back-to-back, because then you’re vulnerable against a good lefty reliever

9:11	Comment From Josh Bresser With Hanley in the fold, think Bogaerts might be available? If so, does Cueto+ For Bogaerts+ make sense?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts might be incrementally more available, but the plan is for him to play short. Other guys are a hell of a lot more available. If you’re looking for a Cueto trade framework, you’re adding a lot to Cueto, from Cincy’s end

9:12	Comment From Ember Who gets Moncada, and for how much?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Better question for Kiley, because he’s plugged in on this stuff, but it seems like he’ll fetch something in the neighborhood of $40 – 50 million

9:13	Comment From coach Tulo isn’t beloved because of how often he stays on the field

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: hasn’t played 150 games since 2009. probably not going to suddenly become more durable

9:13	Comment From Ross What do you foresee being the Mariner’s big move to bring in a bat or do you see them missing out on one? I am starting to get a little worried as bats our flying off the shelves!

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: No, they’ll get something. Maybe a couple things, given that they’re going to trade Michael Saunders. They’ll move Saunders, they’ll add a righty outfielder, and they’ll add a 1B/DH that might not be right-handed depending on the outfielder they get. Cespedes is still out there, Upton is still out there, Napoli is still out there

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if anyone in the league is going to see value in Allen Craig

9:15	Comment From Deevo When will you guys ever implement your own chat capabilities? This is awful. Seriously, the chat moves down instead of up?! What sorcery is this?!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: And to think, this is the best that’s available!

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: As Dave has said before, if you have something better, please do let us know.

9:15	Comment From LondonTribe How long will catcher framing remain a skill? Shouldn’t baseball eventually move to an electronic strike zone for consistency, making it a redundant art?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: An automated strike zone is probably a very long time away, but umpires seem to get more and more consistent with every passing season, and there’s a greater awareness than ever of the magnitude of pitch-framing, with umpires aware of it and more teams instructing it. So you’re seeing shrinking gaps between the best and the worst. It’s going to be a factor for a while, I imagine, but at least in theory in ought to gradually diminish in impact

9:17	Comment From Bret Why do the Mets seem to think Ruben Tejada is the worst? I know he’s not perfect, but he’s young, cheap, and reasonably productive. Seems like a lot of teams would be satisfied with that, but with the Mets he’s a giant black hole.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He hasn’t developed, he’s had some off-field concerns, and while he’s an adequate defensive shortstop, he’s not great and he definitely doesn’t hit, and now he’s getting expensive. He’s not a problem but he’s not starter material

9:18	Comment From Ceej Do you believe the Twins when they claim that Sano and Buxton won’t debut in ’15?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I could see the players themselves pushing for debuts in September, but I believe the Twins when they say they have a plan for two of the best prospects in baseball

9:18	Comment From Lunch The Red Sox should sign headley too. The new market inefficiency is having a team entirely of third basemen.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I want them to do that to just like have him around. Run errands or something

9:19	Comment From Ross Does Brad Miller or Chris Taylor end up being the answer at SS for the Mariner’s? Miller kind of tanked last year, although he did turn it around a bit and Taylor’s BABIP was totally unsustainable..

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: You might see one of them get traded within the next month and a half, but as things stand at this moment, it looks like Taylor is the starter and Miller is a utility sort. I personally prefer Miller but it’s close

9:19	Comment From Ceej How will/should the Sox free Bogaerts and Betts?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts is going to play short. Betts will find regular playing time at a variety of positions, especially if Castillo struggles or Victorino/Ramirez end up hurt

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Betts might be similar to the 2013 Jurickson Profar plan

9:21	Comment From SteveV If teams are willing to pay $50-60 mill + tax = $100-120Mill for Moncada. That includes 1-2 yrs in the minors and the very real possibility that he busts. So wouldn’t it be a better value to just pay Sandoval $100 mill?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Moncada’s 19, with superstar potential, and the money doesn’t all count against the payroll like Sandoval’s money does. It’s not one or the other. You’re not signing Moncada to address an immediate weakness

9:23	Comment From Munenoris Espresso Stand So, the M’s have locked up King Felix, Cano and now Seager, creating a bit of a contention window. Who will likely be the next player that the M’s will sign to a long-term deal?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Do you mean internally, or just in general? In general, the highest probability might belong to Nelson Cruz. Internally, I’m not sure such a guy exists. It would be Mike Zunino if he got better, or James Paxton if he stayed healthy

9:24	Comment From Nick With Zach Duke and Adam LaRoche added, what would be a reasonable next move to inch the White Sox closer to competing in 2015?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: They still need a good amount of work. They need to address the whole outfield, and much of the infield, and the bullpen’s a question mark, and the starting rotation’s thin behind the top two…people are talking about Melky Cabrera, but realistically, the White Sox are positioned such that almost any kind of upgrade would work. They’re not restricted by what they have around, because beyond Eaton, Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and LaRoche, there’s not much

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’m interested to see what they do with Ramirez. It seems like he’s being shopped, but if the White Sox want to be decent in 2015 that usually requires a shortstop

9:26	Comment From Darth Stout If the Cubs come away with two ‘B’ list free agent starting pitchers and not much else, how would you grade their off-season?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: B

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: If they don’t like what they see this offseason, it’s because they’re preparing for next offseason. There’s no critical sense of urgency and they’re already good enough to be watchable in 2015

9:27	Comment From GSon How much does Hanley leaving the Dodgers make them more active in acquiring some guys for the left side of the infield?. Willing to trade Kemp/Corey & Ca$h for Lindor, Frazier, Salazar and Wolters?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They knew they were losing Hanley, and they’re going to get a shortstop at some point

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe it’s Ramirez, maybe it’s Miller/Taylor, maybe it’s somebody else. Friedman has tried to get one of the Mariners shortstops before

9:27	Comment From Matt Does wRC+ have any weaknesses/blindspots? It seems like the most foolproof offensive stat available.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’s pretty great, but I suppose you could quibble with the park factors. General handedness park factors don’t apply the same way to all players of a given handedness

9:28	Comment From Nick Would the White Sox be better served finding an outfielder via trade or signing Melky Cabrera?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the Cabrera terms. I’m more comfortable with the team spending money instead of depleting longer-term resources, though.

9:30	Comment From Josh Bresser You think the Red Sox would go for Latos, with his iffy 2014 peripherals, injury, and decreased velocity?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’d have interest. I think they’d also have questions. But, obviously, if he checked out, that would be encouraging

9:31	Comment From Nick What would the Rockies ask for in a deal for CarGo?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, too much. He’s too much of a question mark coming off what happened last year to fetch a great haul. I think Tulo could be moved for a big package, but with Gonzalez, the Rockies are probably better off letting him re-establish value in the first half

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Then you’d be looking for a pretty good prospect back

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Someone’s #2 or #3, perhaps

9:34	Comment From Dewey Jay Bruce capable of getting T. Walker?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Not right now

9:34	Comment From gump any solution to the international FA market in your opinion?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Kiley could give you a way better answer. I spend time thinking about how the situation is broken. Kiley spends time thinking about how it could be fixed.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Kiley’s the expert!

9:35	Comment From Happy Fun Ball What talking about teams with bottomless pockets, such as BOS, NYY, LAD, ANA, etc… isn’t it sort of silly to look at FA signings in terms of $/WAR efficiency? These clubs are just looking for production … period … and often willing to pay a premium for it.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: They still run into limits. For the most part, they don’t want to exceed the luxury-tax threshold, so there’s a ceiling there to factor in. Efficiency is still a concern of theirs. Less so than for, say, the A’s, but it’s a factor.

9:36	Comment From Shawn Regarding the Sox signings- they have Victorino/Napoli/Ortiz coming off books in 2015- these deals aren’t as prohibitive as people are making them seem (now they may not be values, but they aren’t going to be cripplers)

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, people tend to exaggerate the extent to which a contract or two can cripple a ballclub, especially when it’s a club with money like the Sox. If they have their way, they’ll have a lot of cheap regulars coming through the system that will allow them to get away with spending big on players who might not quite be worth it

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Now, of course, if the young players bust, then that’s a big problem, but that would be a big problem regardless

9:38	Comment From Shawn Cespedes to Seattle, Walker or Paxton to Cincy, Cueto or Latos to Boston (obviously additional pieces could be thrown in to Sea for Walker or Cincy for Cueto), but could this work?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Potential framework there but it’s not even.

9:39	Comment From Andrew Any idea what the Astros could get in return for Jason Castro? Would the Cubs be interested after missing out on Martin?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs would be interested — a few teams have expressed interest — but last year was pretty bad for Castro’s trade value. He’s not bringing back much of a haul, not with two years left and an 84 wRC+ last season. Maybe two interesting low-level prospects, or one more established mid-tier prospect

9:41

Comment From Guest
With FA prices soaring, as a Cubs fan, I’m going to be pretty pissed if they aren’t willing to go 6/180 – 200 for Lester. That’s a crapload of money, but is that unreasonable of me? If Lester doesn’t accept that from them, fine. But if they can’t offer it, should I be pissed? (Note: I haven’t been mad about their spending up until this offseason at all. Wasn’t mad they didn’t go where the Blue Jays did for Martin either.)

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs don’t need to give Lester $30 million a season into his deep 30s

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There are always alternatives. It’s never going to be Jon Lester or bust

9:42	Comment From Shawn What does a trade for Justin Upton look like?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty similar to the Heyward trade. Worse players coming back, under control for longer. Atlanta isn’t actually going to turn Upton into a massive blockbuster. Teams believe in him less than they did a couple years ago

9:44	Comment From MB Better option for teams in need of a SS – Steven Drew on a cheap 1 year deal or 1 of Asdrubel Cabrera/Jed Lowrie on a fair market value (say $8-$10 mil annually) on a 2 year deal?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re a smaller-market team, Drew. If you have more to spend, I’d take Lowrie and then shift him away from short when I have the opportunity

9:44	Comment From Tony G. Which players do you think get moved out of Boston?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Cespedes is almost a lock, and Napoli seems likely. If they dip into the prospects, they won’t be moving players from the top of the list

9:46	Comment From Biltmore The thing about the move-Bogaerts rumors: that doesn’t really solve anything! Ramirez isn’t a SS anymore, so you still have the OF/3B logjam whether you move XB or not. Betts for a big time SP makes much more sense imo.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: In theory, you could have Ramirez play short in 2015, and then you hope that Marrero is ready soon after.

9:48	Comment From SteveV Isn’t Plouffe plus 30 BA pts about equal to Panda? His UZR is second to Headley. He also going into his peak and Panda is past his.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Plouffe is older than Sandoval

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: As far as his evaluation, depends what you make of his defense at third base. Numbers say he improved a lot in 2014, but if you regress back to his track record, he doesn’t look particularly special

9:49	Comment From Josh Bresser Do you think the Reds have the potential to contend this year? 97, 90 wins in last fully healthy years.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Long shot. They’re in one of the toughest positions in baseball right now.

9:49	Comment From SK How much would a position move to 1B for Panda in a few years knock off from his WAR/year? half a win?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: In theory it wouldn’t really have an effect — the positional adjustment would be harsher, but his defense would look better to balance it out

9:50	Comment From Dewey How functional would Carlos Quentin be as a DH?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: More functional than he is as an outfielder

9:50	Comment From THE+average+sports+fan If the Reds are going to be rebuilding in 2016 and 2017 at least. Why not take a shot at it this year?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like they might