Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/1/17

December 1, 2017

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: We either have very much or very little to discuss. I don’t know

9:04	The Average Sports Fan: Are the Phillies in a position to make a couple small-medium adds and be a wildcard contender?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, not yet. I see how the core could be forming, but they’d need huge seasons from, say, Hoskins, Crawford, and Altherr or something. And they’d need more than just Nola in the rotation

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I think that 80 wins would be a greatly successful season. Sights set on 2019

9:06	Xolo: What if Ohtani came out and said that he’d only sign with a team if they also signed his favorite player, Eric Hosmer? Do you step on that landmind to get Ohtani?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: If a team were given a guarantee, then yes, overpaying Hosmer would be worth it

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani should be so valuable and Hosmer might get overpaid by, what, like $25 million or something?

9:07	Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Executives meeting with Stantons peeps, does this finalize the “I want to go to the west coast” thing for him?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Seems pretty clear he wants to go west. The one thing we don’t know is whether he’d be open about other options if no team out west that he finds suitable offers up

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that the Giants are offering up, so right now they’re the very clear favorite

9:08

Forrest: Very unrealistic, but how cool would it be if the MLB allowed the AL to use the DH for *any* position instead of just pitcher? Make a team decide before each game what position will be subbed out. Imagine Ohtani being able to hit out of the pitcher’s position for an AL team, but maybe have a “designated catcher” that doesn’t hit that day. Honestly seems fair to me. Not sure what the big hang-up would be, just benefits teams that have pitchers that can hit.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m not thinking this all the way through, because I haven’t ever given it a lot of thought, but I don’t know why the rule is such that the DH can only be for the pitcher

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, under regular circumstances, teams would always just DH for the pitcher anyway, but they should at least have the option, don’t you think?

9:09	Xolo: If a rebuilding team that’s not really close somehow signs Ohtani, should they go into a win now (or at least win sooner) mode?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, Ohtani would project to be that significant. Now if you’re, say, the Tigers, I don’t know what you’d…do…but if Ohtani went to the Padres or something, that inarguably moves their window forward. Would suddenly make more sense to pursue other short-term help

9:10	Xolo: Is there a precedent for the way Jeter’s taking a blow torch to his reputation?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Jeffrey Loria!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s mostly all just optics right now and the ends might justify the means, but to this point the ownership takeover has been a PR catastrophe

9:11	stever20: why don’t NL teams focus more on their pitchers hitting. I would think with how bulpenning is going, having pitchers able to hit even decently would allow them to save pinch hitters later in the game, which would be a bigger help with the way bullpenning is going.

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Some teams have made an extra effort. The Cardinals, for example, have probably spent more time on pitcher-hitting than other teams in the NL. And it is possible to get some separation. But even with all the work, pitchers will mostly be very bad hitters. And they need to mostly focus on being able to pitch. And getting rest, etc.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much room there is to jam in extra pitcher-hitting work. I’d like to see it, but if the trends suggest anything, it’s that teams are doing the opposite

9:14	mthood: Who has more trade value: Giancarlo Stanton (and his entire contract with an opt-out) or two years of Jose Abreu with a projected 2018 salary of $17.9 million?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I know this is going to sound nuts but I’m pretty sure the answer is Abreu

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: As people have already said, inside and outside of the game, Stanton’s remaining contract is essentially what he’d get right now as a free agent. So his surplus value beyond that is something like $0

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Abreu doesn’t have that much of his own surplus value but it’s just a two-year commitment. Or, really, a one-year commitment with a second-year club option, if you want to think of it like that. Abreu could be traded for something without the White Sox adding money

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: The Panik/Beede/Shaw rumor is only so because the Marlins would be eating something like $50 million

9:18	tommyfastball: Why do we assume Otani will only sign for ~$3.5m. Can’t he tell the Rangers/Yankees “trade for another $4m, and I’ll sign with you.” No matter what his prefered team is, shouldn’t he ask them to trade for more money?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Zero indication that money is a motivating factor for Ohtani at all

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Beyond that, I don’t know the specifics for each team, but every team has a maximum amount of international money they can acquire. And teams that still have significant international money to move are probably unwilling to move it, since they want to use it on Ohtani or some of the jettisoned Braves prospects

9:21	John Beasley: In 2016 you saw potential in Dario Alvarez. Then 2017 happened. Tough to understand why the Cubs gave him a guaranteed deal. Thoughts?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Alvarez had an elbow problem earlier last year. When he returned, he pitched awfully well in Triple-A. Threw strikes and missed bats. You can’t really know if the elbow thing is fully behind him, but a strikeout lefty reliever can always find a job

9:25	georgehermanski: If a player has a no trade clause in his contract and waives it to allow a trade, does he have a no trade clause in the contract with the new team? Thanks

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve just had trouble Googling for confirmation, but I can’t think of a good reason why the answer would be no

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I can at least tell you that the no-trade clause carries over to the new team in the NBA!

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I’d assume it’s the same in the MLB. The no-trade clause is a part of the contract. It’s permanent. It can be temporarily waived

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: In fact, hey, yes!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Brandon Phillips had to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Braves, then he had to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Angels

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Whew

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: From the Braves’ release when they traded for Phillips: “Teams are obligated to honor the contract of players they trade for. We will honor Brandon’s limited no-trade clause because we are bound to honor the contract provision just as we are bound to honor other contract terms whenever we trade for a player.”

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: When a player has 10-5 rights, those go away upon a trade. But a no-trade clause, full or partial, sticks even through a move

9:31	konoldo: Why is Jabari Blash projected for so much more playing time on the Padres depth chart than Hunter Renfroe?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Some of our depth charts are in better shape than others. The NL West isn’t my jurisdiction but I’ll find out what’s going on after this chat so edits can be made

9:32	Mike Stanton: Jeff, do you agree with Dave that Abreu for JBJ is a bad deal?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: For the Red Sox

9:32	Big Joey: Do you think Miggy gets traded before opening day?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Miggy?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Miguel Cabrera?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens, no

9:33	LegallyEagle: You’re the Dodgers GM. Do you try to reset the penalty or do you ignore it and add a player like Stanton (or for that matter, sign a FA like Darvish)?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be interested in Stanton if he were so committed to going to LA and only LA that he could be had for a relative pittance

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Otherwise I’d steer clear of that one

9:34	Big Joey: % chance Vlad jr makes it to the majors next season?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: 50-60%

9:36	tommyfastball: Zach Britton…completely healthy or not? Velocity was back at end of last year, or not?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity was still down a little late, and he had 4 walks and 8 strikeouts in September

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’s completely healthy now, after getting months of rest, but he’s not a good trade candidate until or unless he reestablishes value in next season’s first half

9:37

Jason Grimsley: Sensible usage scenario for Ohtani on NL team:
On his turn in the rotation: have a reliever throw the first inning or 2 of the game. Have Ohtani pinch hit for reliever in his first at-bat. Ohtani throws whatever he normally would have thrown, 6 or 7 innings, but instead gets an additional at-bat.
Seems to make so much sense to be that there’s no way an NL manager will do it.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t actually know when that reliever-starter’s plate appearance will be. So Ohtani wouldn’t be able to have a consistent warm-up routine

9:38	Nate: If Arod wants to manage the Yankees, should the Yankees be interested?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Sure? I don’t know. I don’t know the guy. Might be a great communicator. Might not have actual leadership potential. Beltran seems to have actual leadership potential

9:40	harmony: What are the chances that aging outfield prospect Eric Filia, who won the Arizona Fall League batting title, earns a spot on Seattle’s Opening Day roster despite having played only one game above High A ball?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Eric Filia hit all of five home runs playing a full season in the Cal League

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Next to no chance he breaks camp with the club. He’ll go straight to Double-A, and he could move to Triple-A in a month or two

9:41

Albert Belle is a very angry man: Crazy thought: Is Terry Francona actually overrated as a manager? We’ve seen, time and again, Francona give preference to veterans at the expense of his club, make poor managerial decisions. These decisions include but are not limited to: ALDS rotation, Kipnis in CF after his horrid year offensively and injury, Brantley in LF while requiring surgery, among others. He’s obviously a great manager but there is no question his lackadasical management-style led to the dismal 2017 (until the streak) and early exit.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Counter-argument: Terry Francona is a very successful manager

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: We don’t know enough to say anything more than that

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: If Corey Kluber was physically compromised come playoff time, well, what are you going to do?

9:43	Dr. Pibb: Ignoring their overall value, by what do you think the chances are of JD Martinez hitting better than Stanton in 2018?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: There’s probably like a 40-50% chance Martinez ends up with the higher wRC+

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Martinez also can’t play defense

9:44	Lunar verLander: Man…big news day in college football, big news day in government indictments…wish it were a bigger news day in baseball

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t mind Stanton happening today so we don’t have to report to work over the weekend

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like it’s getting super close

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: At least, if he were willing to go to the Giants

9:45	Big Joey: How do you feel about Conforto now that he has received some positive news about his recovery?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s good news to get, but nothing is truly known until we see how Conforto is swinging against live pitches

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it’s a less-than-encouraging sign that the Mets are reportedly thinking about a Jay Bruce reunion

9:46	Magic 8 Ball: Giants taking on salaries of both Stanton and Gordon in a trade for Panik and a boatload of salary relief seems like a huge gamble for a team already saddled with bad contracts and an aging core. Does it make sense to you for them to go all in before Posey and Bum start fading?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: There’s legitimate reason to see some parallels between the Giants now and the Tigers a year or three back

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Now, the Giants effectively print money for themselves, and they can spend a lot on the roster. But a Stanton trade would really have them leaning in to the shorter-term future

9:47	Mike: How would you describe your feelings when you discovered the O’Brien twins thing?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Deeply excited in a way I could never fully convey to my girlfriend

9:49	DJ : You can start a new team and hand pick 3 current players (and their contract/age/etc) – who are you taking

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Leaning toward Judge/Correa/Trout

9:50	Pedantic: Why do they call it a “leg kick” when you can’t kick with different body parts? It’s just a kick!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t even think it looks that much like a kick in the first place

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: What kick? You’re just lifting your leg up and putting it back down again

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a leg kick, it’s a knee lift

9:51	Niki: What is your opinion on the ph

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Neutral

9:51	groucho: Why would Stanton wanna go to the Giants? They look like they’re destined to be like the post Ryan Howard extension Phillies…

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They made the playoffs just one season ago, they play out west, and, very importantly, they’re not the Marlins

9:52	Greg: Should the Braves sign a reliever or two even if it’s multiple years for solid money? They could always flip them at deadline if team isn’t doing well.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be more inclined to take chances. Instead of, say, spending on Anthony Swarzak, find a candidate to be the next Anthony Swarzak

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Go get Trevor Cahill and make him a multi-inning reliever and find out what happens

9:52	Stan: Do you think Ohtani will only go to a contender? The information we have is very limited but that seems like a clear answer.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we know this for sure

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we could rule out, for example, the Padres

9:53	Carl: Matt Adams is available and, presumably, cheap. The Red Sox need power. It seems to me that picking him up is a no-brainer for the Sox. It might mean Hanley gets upset, but who cares?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like it’s important to understand that Matt Adams isn’t very good

9:54	Jon: What would you rather see, assuming no injury risk: a home run derby with pitchers, or an All-Star game entirely pitched by the hardest throwing position players?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The former

9:54	Niki: What is your opinion on the purported haul for Stanton?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re referring to Panik/Beede/Shaw and the Marlins picking up like $45 million, I think it’s neutral-ish for the Giants, but Panik is a weird inclusion

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Why subtract if you’re going to add? And why would the Marlins want Panik right now anyway?

9:55	Kevin: How does AA get rid of Matt Kemp, he said his #1 priority is improving team defense.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Cut him

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He projects to be worth 0.0 WAR

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Over the past three years he’s been worth a combined 0.6 WAR, and now he’s 33

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s useless

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I know it seems like we’re always overly harsh on Matt Kemp, but, I mean, how couldn’t we be?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Statcast has basically proven that his defense is as bad as the other metrics say it is

9:57	Kimball: Are you surprised by how many “names” say they’re persuaded by Bill James’ criticism of WAR?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There are a lot of people predisposed to dislike WAR in the first place

9:58	Lou : If Stanton said he only wanted to play for the Dodgers and the Dodgers wanted him, could he force the Marlins to take a really lousy deal?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: That would be up to the Marlins. Would they rather take a bad deal, or keep an unhappy Stanton around for another season?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: But if Stanton really wanted, here, he could have almost all of the leverage. If he only wants to play for the Dodgers, he can just about make that happen, and the Marlins would be left picking between two awful choices

9:59	P: Jays the darkhorse for Ohtani?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: There are like 15 or 20 darkhorses for Ohtani

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Very few teams can be ruled out