Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/4/15
9:02 |
: Okay! |
9:03 |
|
9:03 |
: And I’m already having problems! |
9:04 |
: Well I don’t know what’s happening on my end but let’s just try to do this |
9:04 |
: Did Eno teach you where the End Chat button is? |
9:04 |
: I bet he was just using that as an excuse to end his chat right at the one-hour mark |
9:05 |
: But actually I can let you know that in response to that they have moved the end chat button to a different place that is far away! |
9:05 |
: Jeff, if you could have a 10 year major league career but as a middling replacement level journeyman, what type of player would you like to be? 6th starter/rubber armed long man? Utility infielder? No bat/no glove backup catcher? Other? |
9:06 |
: I’d like to be a pitcher. In these circumstances I would be a relatively bad pitcher, but I miss the days of pitching more than anything else I’ve ever done athletically. Pitching is so awesome, you’re right in the middle of everything |
9:06 |
: And now I know enough to be able to say that when something goes wrong it’s part defense and part bad luck! Statistical exoneration! |
9:06 |
: How likely are the Rockies to trade CarGo this off season? Who are the candidates to go after him? |
9:07 |
: I think it’s pretty likely, with his contract slowly nearing its end, but obviously the outfield market is taking some time to develop with pitchers up front |
9:08 |
: Right now the Angels don’t have a left fielder, and the Orioles could use some left-handed hitters. So those are two possibilities at the moment |
9:08 |
: The Angels have been rumored for a while, I think |
9:10 |
: So, any thoughts on Hyun-soo Kim? I’d love him on the A’s. |
9:11 |
: I haven’t watched him yet — I was most interested in Park, for obvious reasons — but this is a good time for Kim to be coming over. Not only because of the Kang effect, but also because he’s seemingly a disciplined contact hitter, and teams around the league are increasingly in love with contact hitting |
9:12 |
: I don’t know how his power might translate, and as an example, Nori Aoki signed for another small contract, but let’s say, hypothetically, that Kim is on the Aoki level. That’s a starting-caliber player, or a tremendously good 4th OF |
9:12 |
: And I think Kim could be better than that |
9:12 |
: Last year he had 38 more walks than strikeouts. I don’t care what league you’re in — that’s impressive |
9:14 |
: Javy Baez, Pierce Johnson, and Albert Almora for Shelby Miller and Shae Simmons…Who says no? |
9:14 |
: Braves are going to want a position player who’s good *now* |
9:14 |
: Or at least *someone* who’s good now. |
9:15 |
: 30 year old David Price has 1441 innings of work with an ERA 21% better than league average. After his first 6 seasons 28 year old Tom Seaver had 1641 innings of work with an ERA 29% better than league average. How much would that resume be worth today? 10/350? |
9:15 |
: There’s only so many years teams would be willing to go on a pitcher contract, and I don’t think we’ll see “10” for a long time, but you’re looking at $35-40 million a season for several seasons |
9:16 |
: Closer to $40 million, I imagine. Greinke is thinking about a $35-million salary, and Seaver would be younger and probably a bit better |
9:17 |
: Opinion on the Dbacks new uniforms? |
9:17 |
: They look stupid but we get used to these things quickly. It wasn’t long ago everyone was making fun of the Marlins’ horrible look. Now it’s just accepted as the look of the Marlins and nobody cares |
9:18 |
: Cheers to the Diamondbacks for taking a bold step. Jeers to the Diamondbacks for taking that step into a pit |
9:19 |
: Thoughts on the Pelfrey deal? |
9:19 |
: Tremendously unexciting, because it’s Mike Pelfrey, but last year he got his fastball back, and over the course of his career he’s limited quality contact and home runs. It’s not a small-sample fluke anymore, I don’t think. So it’s something going in his favor. He’s not a lot of fun, but this is the going rate for a proven No. 4/5 |
9:20 |
: The dream scenario has Shane Greene re-discovering his ability to not suck. Pelfrey is a sort of Greene insurance |
9:20 |
: 1 year for Pelfrey is dull but acceptable. 2 years is insane. Am I wrong? |
9:21 |
: Ehh, dude throws 93-94. Step forward last year. Would’ve preferred a year and an option, but it’s tolerable |
9:22 |
: Is it far-fetched to see a trade that sends Ethier to CLE where the Indians pick up $5m/yr of that contract? Would both sides agree to that? |
9:22 |
: They’d probably prefer to not have an all left-handed outfield, but sure, if the price was right, they’d do it |
9:23 |
: Do you like the numbers more for what they tell us about what already happened or for what they tell us about what may yet happen? |
9:24 |
: It’s always more interesting to try to see the future. We’ve all already seen the past. I like the numbers because they let me play detective in a way. You poke around and you look for what might be an indicator of something coming down the road. Oftentimes we end up wrong when we do this, but then we get to learn, and in theory we’re always getting smarter |
9:25 |
: What’s your opinion on the Atkins hiring? From what I’ve seen/heard, it looks like it’s Shapiro’s team and Lacava/Atkins are just his assistants. |
9:25 |
: You’re basically right. The power won’t be all Shapiro’s, but he does have the most |
9:26 |
: Now, whether Atkins will bring a diversity in thought processes, I don’t know. He might be so similar to Shapiro it’s like having a clone. But since I don’t know the guy I don’t want to speculate on that part |
9:26 |
: What do you expect from Shin Soo Choo this season? |
9:26 |
: Above-average hitting, continued on-base ability. Nothing spectacular |
9:27 |
: But I was looking at Choo just yesterday |
9:27 |
: It’s interesting — the fan scouting report used to give him one of the best throwing arms in baseball. Now they rate it as average, more or less |
9:28 |
: And two years ago they *hated* it. Probably had something to do with his bone spur |
9:28 |
: But it got me wondering how often outfielders have their arm perceptions slip so much (Lagares…) |
9:29 |
: Is Huston Street going to be ok coming off the groin injury? |
9:29 |
: I believe it was a Grade 1 strain, so he should be fine |
9:30 |
: Not that he has a track record of durability, mind you |
9:30 |
: Seattle-KC Trade: Taijuan Walker, Taylor/Marte, Peterson to KC for Eric Hosmer. Who says no? |
9:31 |
: Every member of the Mariners front office, one by one |
9:31 |
: Jeff, what do you want for Christmas |
9:32 |
: For world news to stop making me feel like an idiot for writing about baseball while so many horrible things are going on every day |
9:32 |
: Also better mountaineering gloves |
9:32 |
: Is Brandon Belt, Kendrys Morales or Carlos Santana going to have the best 2016? |
9:32 |
: Belt |
9:33 |
: are the reports of beane looking to unload lawrie true? seems like his power at 2nd base would be a plus, and i’d take him over lowrie and valencia any day. and if true, that donaldson trade… |
9:33 |
: Wouldn’t surprise me at all. Lawrie has been a disappointment and he can be, shall we say, abrasive. Some other team might still think it can squeeze the potential out of him |
9:34 |
: The Donaldson trade ship has sailed. No saving that |
9:34 |
: If you were the backup catcher for the 2016 Mariners, would you be Jesus Sucre, Steve Clevenger or a pile of extra baseball gear that assumes a human form |
9:34 |
: Clevenger until Mike Zunino stops flailing at things he sees out of the corner of his eye |
9:35 |
: If the Dodgers don’t resign Greinke, who do you suspect they target? Is Cueto too big of a risk? |
9:36 |
: Maybe they’d change their minds about Zobrist. Maybe they’d go nuts and sign Heyward. Maybe Samardzija+. One thing’s for sure — that money would get spent. But I’m putting it at 75/25 Greinke re-signs (no insight, just a feeling) |
9:36 |
: Hey Jeff, are you going to be in town for Winter Meetings? If so can we get a FG meetup in Nahville? |
9:36 |
: A bunch of us will be around. I’ll talk to Dave to see what we can do |
9:37 |
: Any sense who might be the couple most active teams next week? |
9:37 |
: Whoever Zobrist signs with, and whoever Greinke doesn’t sign with |
9:38 |
: It’s always hard to foresee the trades. There are some obvious types of moves that need to happen — Mets find a shortstop, Mariners find a first baseman, Angels find a left fielder, etc. Many of the holes will get filled next week. But I don’t know who’s going to be busiest. This time last year, we didn’t know the Dodgers and the Padres would take over the winter meetings and cause people to lose all their sleep |
9:39 |
: With the attractiveness of Ben Zobrist (baseball playing…though he is good looking), is Brock Holt wringing his hands impatiently waiting for his payday? |
9:39 |
: Hopefully he’s spending his time learning to be better at hitting. Not close to Zobrist level yet |
9:39 |
: So, sign Ryan Madson and Hyun-Soo Kim, and I think the A’s are suddenly wildcard contenders. Am I wrong? |
9:40 |
: I don’t think so. For a few reasons. Doolittle is healthy, and a .500 team can be a wild-card contender |
9:40 |
: As an emotionally-devastated semi-former Mariners fan, how are you reacting to DiPoto’s moves so far? |
9:40 |
: I like him fine, but I feel like nothing’s going to emotionally click until or unless I watch the Mariners playing meaningful late-season games again. Right now it’s all theoretical. I liked some of the Zduriencik teams during the offseason too |
9:42 |
: Jose Miguel Fernandez defected. Which teams are interested? |
9:43 |
: He sounds a little like Luis Castillo without the steals. Maybe that’s a terrible comp, but for some reason I always think of Castillo when I think about under-powered contact-oriented second basemen |
9:45 |
: Because it doesn’t look like Fernandez will sign before opening day, it changes his market a bit — he’s not just an immediate short-term acquisition. A team shouldn’t expect to sign him to fill their 2016 infield hole. The Dodgers signed Olivera even though they had 2B and 3B occupied. I don’t think there’s much predicting this yet — I bet more than a dozen teams will be involved |
9:46 |
: Do you see the Rangers moving prince or choo this offseason? |
9:46 |
: Odds are nope |
9:47 |
: On a scale of $1 to $Texas, how much is Greinke going to get paid? |
9:47 |
: He’ll get six years and nearly David Price’s full seven-year commitment |
9:47 |
: I get not wanting to offer Samardzjia $100 million (if rumors are true), but would you rather sign him at that rate or go with a 37-year-old John Lackey at a smaller price? |
9:47 |
: I’m generally in favor of the smaller and shorter FA pitcher commitments |
9:48 |
: Freddie Freeman’s slash line has seen a downward trend since he put up a near MVP-caliber 2013 season, but he’s still a relatively young guy. Should I be worried about this? Should the Braves be looking to deal him (like they’ve dealt pretty much everybody else worth rooting for) before the bottom totally falls out? |
9:49 |
: All I see is BABIP fluctuation. Over three years, he’s dropped from 150 wRC+ to 133, but everything outside of his BABIP has stayed the same. He’s newly 26 and he seems good at defense. He’s a keeper |
9:50 |
: Why is Mike Leake expected to get such a big contract when he’s just a 1.5-2 win pitcher? He’s really not very good… at all. |
9:51 |
: I’m more with you than against you, but he might have slight FIP-beating skills, and he’s young, and if he signs with an NL team he can hit a bit |
9:52 |
: But, what is Pelfrey getting? $16 million over 2 years? Could very well end up a better decision than giving a fortune to Mike Leake. |
9:52 |
: Do you think massive roster overhauls are more likely to underperform than rosters that change more incrementally? |
9:52 |
: I could see that, for psychological reasons, but I bet if someone were to conduct actual good research, any effect would be quite small |
9:53 |
: The Dodgers, as an example, just won their division |
9:53 |
: The A’s and Rays put together extended stretches of improbable success |
9:53 |
: Obviously Dipoto’s not done yet, but Montero isn’t the M’s opening day first baseman, right? Napoli seems like the kind of buy-low, high-OBP type that JeDi likes, but he also might be in the midst of a significant decline |
9:53 |
: No chance they go with Montero |
9:53 |
: Odds that Butler is not on the A’s opening day roster |
9:54 |
: I don’t think he’s gone before he turns 30. I think they just work to establish some depth behind him in case he sucks again |
9:54 |
: If you were a multi-billionaire, would you want to be an MLB owner? |
9:55 |
: If I was really interested in adding to my wealth, yeah, the investment is obvious. They’re money machines. But it also seems like it can be a lot of work and stress. If I had that much money, I’d probably donate an awful lot of it and then try to disappear |
9:55 |
: If the A’s sign Kim, do they trade Josh Reddick? Last year of his deal |
9:55 |
: Certainly increases the odds |
9:56 |
: How far off is Jay Bruce from being in the Trumbo, Chris Carter, Howard, camp of no-value one-dimensional sluggers? |
9:56 |
: He’s got a good deal more defensive utility |
9:56 |
: Carter and Howard are defensive zeroes. Trumbo is all right |
9:57 |
: 11/10 on twitter announcement |
9:57 |
: thank you, friend |
9:57 |
: Its not out of the realm of possibility for J. Heyward to put up a fluky 25+ home run year is it? Kind of a question about any good hitter with limited power shown really. How likely is it that they put up one huge power year? If Joe Mauer can hit 30+ one year, its something we don’t ever expect but happens. |
9:58 |
: I mean, Heyward’s already hit 27, right? And he’s 26 years old. Last year he hit way too many grounders, but the year before he didn’t, and there’s no question he has the strength. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Heyward become a more consistent power threat |
9:59 |
: In 2011, Heyward hit 14 homers with 54% groundballs. In 2012, he hit 27 homers with 44% groundballs. Last year, he hit 13 homers with 57% groundballs… |
10:00 |
: Is Eric Thames watching Kim’s negotiations closely? Would be a comparable contract if he decided to return to the MLB (though probably more). |
10:00 |
: I think Thames’ track record could work against him, and teams know he’s not a defensive strength. But, yeah, it does seem like he ought to be able to return at some point if he wants |
10:01 |
: which team that sucked eggs last year is most likely to be a playoff team this year besides the red sox? |
10:01 |
: Mariners or Nationals |
10:01 |
: If the Nationals count |
10:02 |
: What do the Mariners do at 1B? Do they sign a guy like Napoli, or trade for someone we aren’t thinking about? Or go with a sick Montero/Andy Wilkins platoon!!!! |
10:02 |
: Plenty of options but Napoli might be the least surprising |
10:03 |
: What would your guess on a contract be if Trout hadn’t signed an extension and continued his current pace until free agency? |
10:03 |
: So he’d be going into his age-26 season |
10:05 |
: More or less the same as Alex Rodriguez way back when |
10:06 |
: In 2001, the median payroll was about $63 million |
10:06 |
: In 2017, it’ll be nearly double that (last year, was $114 million) |
10:07 |
: So I’m going for simplicity: doubling it. 10 years, $500 million, with an opt-out in there |
10:08 |
: **friendly notice for everyone** this chat will be shutting down earlier than usual, because I’m having a car delivered. It’s less exciting than it sounds, but it will take me away from my computer. The car is on its way |
10:09 |
: Let’s say you’re still a Mariners fan. Maybe you are. Are you pleased with what Dipoto has done so far? |
10:09 |
: Overall, more pleased than displeased. I like what he said about how you shouldn’t evaluate moves individually — it’s all part of a big picture. Good thing to keep in mind for every team. |
10:09 |
: Still don’t love the Brad Miller trade, but some of that falls on the previous regime |
10:10 |
: How much do you look at and factor in a pitchers soft & hard contact allowed? Obviously they are newer stats and we don’t exactly know what predictive value they have, so whats the level to use them at this point? |
10:10 |
: I look at them, but I don’t put a lot of stock in them unless someone has numbers at an extreme. It all regresses, but there is some hint of ability in there |
10:10 |
: Like, Dallas Keuchel is probably better at generating soft contact than Ian Kennedy |
10:11 |
: Hypothetical GM questions: Would you try to replace Duda at 1B? I can see Cuddyer and possibly d’Arnaud platooning with him if he stays. Would you try to package Duda in some kind of trade if you were Alderson? |
10:11 |
: No harm in exploring the market and thinking about Cuddyer at 1B but it’s not like that opens up an opportunity in the outfield what with Conforto/Granderson so there’s no need to force anything |
10:12 |
: Wouldn’t hurt to get in touch with the Orioles to see what they might do |
10:12 |
: Of just about anyone, I would think Greinke would understand the diminishing marginal utility of each additional million, and would thus weigh other factors more heavily. In what ways do you think analytic *player* could evaluate soft factors? |
10:13 |
: I think Greinke is familiar with the setting he’s been in in LA, but he also knows SF has been highly successful and Bochy is good at commanding a cohesive clubhouse. Beyond that I don’t think there’s much of anything else; he also knows this is business, and it makes business sense to get the best contract you can. It’s not just about his own deal. It’s also about helping set a precedent for future players |
10:16 |
: If Astros ask for Chapman, what are Reds asking for? |
10:16 |
: Velasquez would be interesting. |
10:16 |
: Appel would be a *fascinating* centerpiece. Alternatively, could see the Reds try to add to Preston Tucker |
10:16 |
: The pants look stupid but the Jerseys and tops are cool |
10:17 |
: To be honest I used to like the purple tops so I just have horrible taste in everything |
10:17 |
: Those tripping-balls old Phoenix Coyotes uniforms? Loved ’em. Go weird or go home |
10:17 |
: You’re Arizona — you’re not going to win people over or fool anyone by going MLB-classic |
10:19 |
: Is it a foregone conclusion that Heyward returns to STL now or will they still try to spend their money on a SP? |
10:19 |
: Heyward is more likely with Price off the board but by no means a guarantee. The OF market is still developing |
10:21 |
: what do you expect out of maikel franco next season? he showed some adrain beltre(offensively) style promise before he got hurt |
10:21 |
: I liked what I saw from his season a lot. Addressed several questions and he’s still just 23(!). I’m looking for a 3-WAR season |
10:22 |
: In re: Pelfrey; Is Happ that much more valuable? Or recognition that Happ is left handed and never really been injured? |
10:23 |
: Left-handed, less injury history, more encouraging 2015 finish. Pelfrey allowed a .348 wOBA in the second half; Happ was at .280 |
10:23 |
: Other than the unique circumstances of the 2012 Red Sox, do you think it’s really possible for a team to truly “rebuild” with a 2 year target, as the Braves seem to want to do? |
10:23 |
: That’s too quick. A team with, say, the Phillies’ resources might be able to pull it off, but you should go in thinking 4-5 years. 2 is a few standard deviations fast |
10:25 |
: If Scherzer were a free agent this offseason, how would he compare to Grienke? |
10:25 |
: I think he’d get something close to the Price deal. So, his own deal, with less money deferred |
10:25 |
: Was I funny or awkward on Fox? Do I have a future on TV? |
10:25 |
: I didn’t watch you but I hate you |
10:26 |
: Which I think goes along with a lot of the regular Fox programming decisions? |
10:26 |
: I don’t really understand the cubs trying to move soler when they have castro, baez, and gleyber Torres all playing the same position and they don’t have a soler replacement |
10:26 |
: I don’t think they’re trying to move Soler — I think they’re open to moving Soler. They can make multiple moves at multiple positions, and there are good alternative outfielders available if Soler goes away |
10:27 |
: Might be time to capitalize on his promise now before he’s officially a disappointment |
10:27 |
: Do you think Dombrowski still has something up his sleeve? |
10:27 |
: I don’t think he’s much for secrets or surprises. If there’s something obvious, he’ll do it |
10:27 |
: He might move someone from his pitching depth now. But I’m coming around on the Dombrowski approach of “why not just try to win right now?” |
10:28 |
: I’m afraid I’ve gotta go now 🙁 car just arrived. Sorry everyone. So thank you for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days |
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Just finished reading Jeff’s article on kERA and I have a question about the final chart, the one that shows how ERA predictors correlate with next year’s ERA. First, why is it that when examining, say, FIPs predictive value, you don’t compare it to the pitcher’s next year FIP? Why his ERA? Second, and this is related, what if you had an ERA estimator with a perfect 1.00 correlation. It’d be great in some ways, sure, but wouldn’t that contradict a critical assumption: that ERA has too many variables outside the pitcher’s control to be a measure of true talent? Point is, why are we striving towards building a metric with a correlation that would disprove the premises upon which the metric is built?
different Jeff!