Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/4/15

December 4, 2015

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Okay!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan:

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And I’m already having problems!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Well I don’t know what’s happening on my end but let’s just try to do this

9:04	Bork: Did Eno teach you where the End Chat button is?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I bet he was just using that as an excuse to end his chat right at the one-hour mark

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: But actually I can let you know that in response to that they have moved the end chat button to a different place that is far away!

9:05	j6takish: Jeff, if you could have a 10 year major league career but as a middling replacement level journeyman, what type of player would you like to be? 6th starter/rubber armed long man? Utility infielder? No bat/no glove backup catcher? Other?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to be a pitcher. In these circumstances I would be a relatively bad pitcher, but I miss the days of pitching more than anything else I’ve ever done athletically. Pitching is so awesome, you’re right in the middle of everything

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: And now I know enough to be able to say that when something goes wrong it’s part defense and part bad luck! Statistical exoneration!

9:06	Lawrence: How likely are the Rockies to trade CarGo this off season? Who are the candidates to go after him?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty likely, with his contract slowly nearing its end, but obviously the outfield market is taking some time to develop with pitchers up front

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Right now the Angels don’t have a left fielder, and the Orioles could use some left-handed hitters. So those are two possibilities at the moment

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels have been rumored for a while, I think

9:10	Derek Carr: So, any thoughts on Hyun-soo Kim? I’d love him on the A’s.

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t watched him yet — I was most interested in Park, for obvious reasons — but this is a good time for Kim to be coming over. Not only because of the Kang effect, but also because he’s seemingly a disciplined contact hitter, and teams around the league are increasingly in love with contact hitting

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how his power might translate, and as an example, Nori Aoki signed for another small contract, but let’s say, hypothetically, that Kim is on the Aoki level. That’s a starting-caliber player, or a tremendously good 4th OF

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: And I think Kim could be better than that

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Last year he had 38 more walks than strikeouts. I don’t care what league you’re in — that’s impressive

9:14	Matt: Javy Baez, Pierce Johnson, and Albert Almora for Shelby Miller and Shae Simmons…Who says no?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Braves are going to want a position player who’s good now

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Or at least someone who’s good now.

9:15	Curious: 30 year old David Price has 1441 innings of work with an ERA 21% better than league average. After his first 6 seasons 28 year old Tom Seaver had 1641 innings of work with an ERA 29% better than league average. How much would that resume be worth today? 10/350?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: There’s only so many years teams would be willing to go on a pitcher contract, and I don’t think we’ll see “10” for a long time, but you’re looking at $35-40 million a season for several seasons

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Closer to $40 million, I imagine. Greinke is thinking about a $35-million salary, and Seaver would be younger and probably a bit better

9:17	Norrin Radd: Opinion on the Dbacks new uniforms?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: They look stupid but we get used to these things quickly. It wasn’t long ago everyone was making fun of the Marlins’ horrible look. Now it’s just accepted as the look of the Marlins and nobody cares

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Cheers to the Diamondbacks for taking a bold step. Jeers to the Diamondbacks for taking that step into a pit

9:19	Will Graham: Thoughts on the Pelfrey deal?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Tremendously unexciting, because it’s Mike Pelfrey, but last year he got his fastball back, and over the course of his career he’s limited quality contact and home runs. It’s not a small-sample fluke anymore, I don’t think. So it’s something going in his favor. He’s not a lot of fun, but this is the going rate for a proven No. 4/5

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The dream scenario has Shane Greene re-discovering his ability to not suck. Pelfrey is a sort of Greene insurance

9:20	Zach: 1 year for Pelfrey is dull but acceptable. 2 years is insane. Am I wrong?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Ehh, dude throws 93-94. Step forward last year. Would’ve preferred a year and an option, but it’s tolerable

9:22	some guy: Is it far-fetched to see a trade that sends Ethier to CLE where the Indians pick up $5m/yr of that contract? Would both sides agree to that?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: They’d probably prefer to not have an all left-handed outfield, but sure, if the price was right, they’d do it

9:23	Wondering: Do you like the numbers more for what they tell us about what already happened or for what they tell us about what may yet happen?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: It’s always more interesting to try to see the future. We’ve all already seen the past. I like the numbers because they let me play detective in a way. You poke around and you look for what might be an indicator of something coming down the road. Oftentimes we end up wrong when we do this, but then we get to learn, and in theory we’re always getting smarter

9:25	Bork: What’s your opinion on the Atkins hiring? From what I’ve seen/heard, it looks like it’s Shapiro’s team and Lacava/Atkins are just his assistants.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You’re basically right. The power won’t be all Shapiro’s, but he does have the most

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Now, whether Atkins will bring a diversity in thought processes, I don’t know. He might be so similar to Shapiro it’s like having a clone. But since I don’t know the guy I don’t want to speculate on that part

9:26	JV: What do you expect from Shin Soo Choo this season?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Above-average hitting, continued on-base ability. Nothing spectacular

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But I was looking at Choo just yesterday

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting — the fan scouting report used to give him one of the best throwing arms in baseball. Now they rate it as average, more or less

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: And two years ago they hated it. Probably had something to do with his bone spur

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But it got me wondering how often outfielders have their arm perceptions slip so much (Lagares…)

9:29	JV: Is Huston Street going to be ok coming off the groin injury?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I believe it was a Grade 1 strain, so he should be fine

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Not that he has a track record of durability, mind you

9:30	Balls Mahoney: Seattle-KC Trade: Taijuan Walker, Taylor/Marte, Peterson to KC for Eric Hosmer. Who says no?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Every member of the Mariners front office, one by one

9:31	Phillies113: Jeff, what do you want for Christmas

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: For world news to stop making me feel like an idiot for writing about baseball while so many horrible things are going on every day

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Also better mountaineering gloves

9:32	JV: Is Brandon Belt, Kendrys Morales or Carlos Santana going to have the best 2016?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Belt

9:33	rr: are the reports of beane looking to unload lawrie true? seems like his power at 2nd base would be a plus, and i’d take him over lowrie and valencia any day. and if true, that donaldson trade…

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t surprise me at all. Lawrie has been a disappointment and he can be, shall we say, abrasive. Some other team might still think it can squeeze the potential out of him

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The Donaldson trade ship has sailed. No saving that

9:34	Mayor of Hamden, CT: If you were the backup catcher for the 2016 Mariners, would you be Jesus Sucre, Steve Clevenger or a pile of extra baseball gear that assumes a human form

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Clevenger until Mike Zunino stops flailing at things he sees out of the corner of his eye

9:35	Kevin: If the Dodgers don’t resign Greinke, who do you suspect they target? Is Cueto too big of a risk?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they’d change their minds about Zobrist. Maybe they’d go nuts and sign Heyward. Maybe Samardzija+. One thing’s for sure — that money would get spent. But I’m putting it at 75/25 Greinke re-signs (no insight, just a feeling)

9:36	Scott: Hey Jeff, are you going to be in town for Winter Meetings? If so can we get a FG meetup in Nahville?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: A bunch of us will be around. I’ll talk to Dave to see what we can do

9:37	Steve02: Any sense who might be the couple most active teams next week?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Whoever Zobrist signs with, and whoever Greinke doesn’t sign with

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: It’s always hard to foresee the trades. There are some obvious types of moves that need to happen — Mets find a shortstop, Mariners find a first baseman, Angels find a left fielder, etc. Many of the holes will get filled next week. But I don’t know who’s going to be busiest. This time last year, we didn’t know the Dodgers and the Padres would take over the winter meetings and cause people to lose all their sleep

9:39	Bork: With the attractiveness of Ben Zobrist (baseball playing…though he is good looking), is Brock Holt wringing his hands impatiently waiting for his payday?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully he’s spending his time learning to be better at hitting. Not close to Zobrist level yet

9:39	Broakland: So, sign Ryan Madson and Hyun-Soo Kim, and I think the A’s are suddenly wildcard contenders. Am I wrong?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. For a few reasons. Doolittle is healthy, and a .500 team can be a wild-card contender

9:40	Justin: As an emotionally-devastated semi-former Mariners fan, how are you reacting to DiPoto’s moves so far?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I like him fine, but I feel like nothing’s going to emotionally click until or unless I watch the Mariners playing meaningful late-season games again. Right now it’s all theoretical. I liked some of the Zduriencik teams during the offseason too

9:42	Larry Bernandez: Jose Miguel Fernandez defected. Which teams are interested?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: He sounds a little like Luis Castillo without the steals. Maybe that’s a terrible comp, but for some reason I always think of Castillo when I think about under-powered contact-oriented second basemen

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Because it doesn’t look like Fernandez will sign before opening day, it changes his market a bit — he’s not just an immediate short-term acquisition. A team shouldn’t expect to sign him to fill their 2016 infield hole. The Dodgers signed Olivera even though they had 2B and 3B occupied. I don’t think there’s much predicting this yet — I bet more than a dozen teams will be involved

9:46	Chris: Do you see the Rangers moving prince or choo this offseason?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Odds are nope

9:47	Jaack: On a scale of $1 to $Texas, how much is Greinke going to get paid?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get six years and nearly David Price’s full seven-year commitment

9:47	Bob Pollard: I get not wanting to offer Samardzjia $100 million (if rumors are true), but would you rather sign him at that rate or go with a 37-year-old John Lackey at a smaller price?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m generally in favor of the smaller and shorter FA pitcher commitments

9:48

Dustin : Freddie Freeman’s slash line has seen a downward trend since he put up a near MVP-caliber 2013 season, but he’s still a relatively young guy. Should I be worried about this? Should the Braves be looking to deal him (like they’ve dealt pretty much everybody else worth rooting for) before the bottom totally falls out?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: All I see is BABIP fluctuation. Over three years, he’s dropped from 150 wRC+ to 133, but everything outside of his BABIP has stayed the same. He’s newly 26 and he seems good at defense. He’s a keeper

9:50	Dan: Why is Mike Leake expected to get such a big contract when he’s just a 1.5-2 win pitcher? He’s really not very good… at all.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’m more with you than against you, but he might have slight FIP-beating skills, and he’s young, and if he signs with an NL team he can hit a bit

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: But, what is Pelfrey getting? $16 million over 2 years? Could very well end up a better decision than giving a fortune to Mike Leake.

9:52	Kimball: Do you think massive roster overhauls are more likely to underperform than rosters that change more incrementally?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I could see that, for psychological reasons, but I bet if someone were to conduct actual good research, any effect would be quite small

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers, as an example, just won their division

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s and Rays put together extended stretches of improbable success

9:53	Dave: Obviously Dipoto’s not done yet, but Montero isn’t the M’s opening day first baseman, right? Napoli seems like the kind of buy-low, high-OBP type that JeDi likes, but he also might be in the midst of a significant decline

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: No chance they go with Montero

9:53	Derek: Odds that Butler is not on the A’s opening day roster

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s gone before he turns 30. I think they just work to establish some depth behind him in case he sucks again

9:54	Andy: If you were a multi-billionaire, would you want to be an MLB owner?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: If I was really interested in adding to my wealth, yeah, the investment is obvious. They’re money machines. But it also seems like it can be a lot of work and stress. If I had that much money, I’d probably donate an awful lot of it and then try to disappear

9:55	Dr. Octopus: If the A’s sign Kim, do they trade Josh Reddick? Last year of his deal

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Certainly increases the odds

9:56	Nelson: How far off is Jay Bruce from being in the Trumbo, Chris Carter, Howard, camp of no-value one-dimensional sluggers?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s got a good deal more defensive utility

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Carter and Howard are defensive zeroes. Trumbo is all right

9:57	c: 11/10 on twitter announcement

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: thank you, friend

9:57

TF Fredrik: Its not out of the realm of possibility for J. Heyward to put up a fluky 25+ home run year is it? Kind of a question about any good hitter with limited power shown really. How likely is it that they put up one huge power year? If Joe Mauer can hit 30+ one year, its something we don’t ever expect but happens.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, Heyward’s already hit 27, right? And he’s 26 years old. Last year he hit way too many grounders, but the year before he didn’t, and there’s no question he has the strength. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Heyward become a more consistent power threat

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: In 2011, Heyward hit 14 homers with 54% groundballs. In 2012, he hit 27 homers with 44% groundballs. Last year, he hit 13 homers with 57% groundballs…