Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/9/14
| 9:00 |
: Who among us is ready to baseball chat?
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| 9:00 |
: I feel like I’m probably ready but I don’t know
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| 9:00 |
The picture thing tells me this will be a chat about football. WIll this be a chat about football? |
| 9:00 |
: It sucks
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| 9:00 |
Does Lindor start in 2015 and what is a realistic slash line? |
| 9:01 |
: He does start but I don’t believe that he starts in the majors
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| 9:01 |
Do the ChiSox sign Shark long term after this year? |
| 9:01 |
: I think the odds heavily indicate no
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| 9:01 |
Was Brandon Moss really only worth a meh prospect? |
| 9:02 |
: Evidently. A’s could’ve raised his stock by letting him play so teams would stop wondering so much about the hip surgery, but that was a real factor in negotiations so a pretty good bat with not a lot of other skills wasn’t going to draw a big return given the projected salaries.
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| 9:02 |
where did the mountain go and why are these dudes not playing baseball |
| 9:02 |
: I tried to not have a picture at all and this is what happened
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| 9:02 |
: Great Going, Cover It Live! (TM)
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| 9:03 |
Which baseball market has the biggest room to explode with a regularly competitive team? |
| 9:03 |
: You mean, one that doesn’t have a team yet?
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| 9:03 |
How much damage is the Markakis deal going to do to the Braves in 2017 & 2018? Is he even a starter by then? |
| 9:04 |
: The Braves indicated not long ago they were currently being restricted by the bad contracts given to Upton and Uggla. So they’ve admitted that dead money causes issues. Markakis will become dead money. He won’t become as much of it, so they can work around him, but, yeah, he’s not someone they’ll be excited to have in the outfield in a few years.
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| 9:05 |
Mets are theoretically willing to deal a pitcher for a shortstop. Texas is theoretically willing to deal a shortstop for pitching. Do you see anything happening there? |
| 9:05 |
| 9:05 |
: Now that’s just one tweet, but so far it hasn’t felt like the Mets match up great with the teams peddling shortstops. So now I’d say nothing happens with Texas either.
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| 9:06 |
: Mets don’t want the Andrus money, and the Rangers probably don’t want to move Profar after he missed the full season.
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| 9:06 |
Talk me back from the ledge if Jon Lester doesn’t sign with the Cubs. |
| 9:06 |
: Not worth killing yourself if Jon Lester signs somewhere else for $150 – 175 million
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| 9:07 |
: It’s never one player or bust. You can trust that the Cubs will arrange for their to be backup plans. They’ll have a reasonable rotation next season and they’ll contend for at least several months
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| 9:07 |
anyone else not really worried about the A’s? they don’t look bad at all |
| 9:08 |
: Writing about that immediately after the chat ends. Which, incidentally, means I’ll be chatting for less time than usual. The A’s have downgraded, but they’re still a decent team and now they’ve given themselves the flexibility to make a few additions
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| 9:08 |
I wish I could make that picture at the top go away |
| 9:08 |
: We all do
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| 9:09 |
What does a realistic Kemp to the Orioles trade look like? |
| 9:10 |
: Right now it’s hard to tell what Kemp will actually get traded for, because the Dodgers are making super high demands. So I don’t know what “realistic” looks like, but off the top of my head I wonder if there’s something possibly around Kemp for Ubaldo Jimenez. Obviously not a prospect there going to LA, but it’s an effective and reasonable salary shed
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| 9:10 |
addison russell for 3 months of samardzija and marcus semien, eh |
| 9:10 |
: Well, they didn’t plan it this way
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| 9:10 |
Would you rather the Mariners sign Melky for a Cruz type of deal than part with any prospects or pitching? |
| 9:11 |
: Yes. I’ll probably write about this later too. Melky makes more sense at Cruz money than Cruz, it fills a need, and the Mariners need to preserve those long-term control guys to balance out the money
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| 9:11 |
How do you weigh signing someone like MelkMan for the Mariners this year to holding off for next years big FA outfield class? |
| 9:11 |
: This year is most important
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| 9:11 |
Eno get you trashed yet? |
| 9:11 |
: There’s a reason I didn’t get very much done yesterday
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| 9:12 |
What are the odds that Semien has a better big league career than Addison Russell? |
| 9:12 |
: 15%?
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| 9:12 |
Hey Jeff. Any general thoughts on the White Sox strategy, especially because it seems opposite of last offseason? It seems like the team still needs two solid bats just to get in the WC 2 mix. |
| 9:14 |
: They’re still not a good team, but it’s easy to dream on Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon with a bullpen back there as well. I don’t think they’re going “all in”, and I don’t think they’re losing critical pieces in the Samardzija move, but there’s enough talent there to win 80+ games and it’s obvious now all the teams are incentivized to compete. There’s just no sense in stripping down, and the White Sox can keep moving forward as an organization while they try to make the big-league product decent in the meantime
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| 9:14 |
So based on the A’s moves, above-average hitting MI prospects are the new market inefficiency? |
| 9:14 |
: Team control years are important for teams with no money. The reality of the A’s situation is a team like that can’t really move up on the win curve like other teams do
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| 9:15 |
Do you think giving up Syndergaard for Profar is too much now given his injury struggles and the fact that he may need shoulder surgery? Could Gee possibly get it done? |
| 9:15 |
: Are you asking me if the Mets could trade Dillon Gee for Jurickson Profar?
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| 9:15 |
Thoughts about the White Sox making a push? Wild Card doesn’t seem likely to come out of the AL Central. |
| 9:16 |
: They still project worse than the A’s. That would be one example. I like Rick Hahn and you might as well try to capitalize on Sale while you have him, but the White Sox aren’t really in the process of building a juggernaut here.
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| 9:16 |
Can we at least get a consistent scroll direction? |
| 9:17 |
: I don’t know what the other chatters do
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| 9:17 |
Reds are open to trading Chapman? Who inside their organization would take over the closer role? |
| 9:17 |
: When you’ve got Miller and Robertson getting what they’re getting, you might as well explore the market. It doesn’t get better than Chapman back there. The Reds *have* to be listening.
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| 9:18 |
Matt Wieters may not be ready for opening day. How much value does he lose if he’s unable to play catcher going forward and has to move to say, 1B? |
| 9:18 |
: Lots. He has a 98 wRC+
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| 9:21 |
IF you were the Mariners GM for the winter meetings what realistic move or moves would you make? |
| 9:22 |
: Had a thought yesterday that the Mariners might try handing Erasmo Ramirez over to the White Sox for Dayan Viciedo. No reason to believe this is happening, but Ramirez belongs on a team that can use him and Viciedo is getting pricey for a player who is bad. Then the Mariners could try to use Viciedo and Miller in the outfield hole but I totally understand why this might seem really unappealing
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| 9:22 |
: Honestly my perspective is just, don’t do anything that trades away the cheap kids
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| 9:22 |
What were the Twins thinking signing an old, defensively horrible RF who turns 40 during the season next season? Oh wait, Hunter says anyone who believes in metrics has never played the game and that he’s not horrible out there. In any event, what were they thinking? |
| 9:22 |
: I think it’s pretty clear the Twins didn’t make that move anticipating that it would help allow them to be competitive in the short-term
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| 9:23 |
: The Twins wanted to reunite and they had to pay to make it worth Hunter’s while
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| 9:23 |
Do you have any idea what the thought process behind the Brandon Moss trade was? $7M seemed pretty reasonable for a guy like him. |
| 9:24 |
: No one knows if he’ll be able to play decent defense anymore and a slump like that doesn’t go unnoticed. It’s a reasonable amount of money, but at the same time I see why the A’s might be comfortable paying less to Ike Davis
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| 9:24 |
Is Dom Brown more valuable trade wise if we plays ok full time or awesome as a platoon? |
| 9:24 |
: Full-time, slightly
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| 9:28 |
: Sorry about that, my room’s internet timed out
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| 9:28 |
: I also can’t get text messages in here. San Diego!
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| 9:28 |
who’s having the weirdest/hardest to understand offseason? the A’s? the braves? i feel like those are the top two. i mean, the white sox trying to contend is sort of a surprise, but at least its clear what their plan is. |
| 9:28 |
: Maybe the Padres, based on what they’re trying to do?
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| 9:29 |
: Honestly, I think the A’s are easy to explain, and the Braves are also easy to explain. Doesn’t necessarily make them *right*, but you can see the ideas driving the moves being made
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| 9:29 |
Are the Angels going to get any SP this offseason? Do they need to upgrade the rotation to compete next year? |
| 9:30 |
: They already picked up a little bit of unremarkable depth, and I suspect they’re feeling limited by payroll commitments. Possible they try for someone like, say, Colon, but I doubt they sign a big contract and they don’t have prospects to trade for good pitchers
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| 9:30 |
: As for the second question, no
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| 9:31 |
Thoughts on the Robertson deal? Is he worth 4/$46? |
| 9:31 |
: I like Miller a little more, but Robertson is more proven, plus he has the “closer” history. I think he’s worth 4/46 on a team that isn’t really the current White Sox, but I don’t think the deal is bad. Not a lot of upside but I doubt he does too much harm to the club
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| 9:32 |
Do the Mariners ultimately trade Miller or Taylor or make one Zobristy? |
| 9:32 |
: All about what they do in RF. They could trade Miller for a right fielder, but if they sign a free agent, suddenly there’s nothing to plug and Miller could become a super-utility sort. Taylor, not so much
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| 9:32 |
What do you see the Reds doing? Any rumors out there? Has someone checked Walt’s pulse and at least made sure he is awake? |
| 9:33 |
: Lots of rumors out there, but they’re stuck in a weird position where they’re too good to sell but too bad to really contend for the World Series. I think they try to give this group one more go, bringing in little role players to fill the holes, but they’re also going to trade a one-year player or two
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| 9:33 |
: Very possibly for a different one-year player
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| 9:34 |
Thanks for answering Jeff. One more question: what’s your impression of the new Braves FO? Step forward or back from Wren? |
| 9:34 |
: I think, as an overall organization, they’re going to continue to operate like the Braves. I think the philosophical differences are going to be subtle
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| 9:34 |
if cubs don’t sign lester, could a syndergaard/plawecki for russell trade happen? |
| 9:34 |
: Why would they trade Russell
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| 9:35 |
Can you invert the chat? Szym and Eno have figured out how to do it with this new client, and it’s much friendlier. |
| 9:35 |
: I’ll look for how to do that next week
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| 9:35 |
A Montero (vs RHP) and Castillo (vs LHP) platoon looks to be real smooth for the Cubs, no? |
| 9:36 |
: Well Montero seems like he might be done hitting, but that would be better than Castillo and no one
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| 9:36 |
I’m moving to Utah next year, any chance Salt Lake gets a baseball team in the near future? |
| 9:36 |
: Not one that isn’t the one that it has
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| 9:37 |
Given the high demand low supply of free agent shortstops this offseason, how much money did JJ Hardy cost himself by not becoming a free agent? |
| 9:38 |
: Might not actually be that much. His contract isn’t *so* much smaller than the one it looks like Chase Headley might end up signing. Hardy could’ve made more, but I don’t think he was going to get into another stratosphere
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| 9:38 |
Is it weird there are reports of the Astros going after Robertson and Miller – are they closer than we think or just looking to satisfy their fan base? |
| 9:38 |
: The first one is true, but mostly I think the Astros are looking at the market and thinking, hey, we could get one of these guys and trade him in July
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| 9:39 |
What’s the price of a win this offseason? And what do we mean when we talk about the “price of a win”? Is it fair to compare the price of a win paid for e.g. Jason Hammel and compare to e.g. Jon Lester? |
| 9:40 |
: I think last I saw, Dave estimated it at like $9-10 million so far, but by the end of the offseason it’ll probably settle around $7.5 million. And yes, it is fair to compare, because even though those are very different players, the observations we’ve made are that the market pays players rather linearly
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| 9:42 |
How much will I suffer from a move to Seattle or San Diego? Considering lineups and parks. |
| 9:42 |
: Tony would have a more detailed response, but your all-fields power would make you more playable in Seattle. You’d struggle some in Petco, but the thing about that is *everyone* struggles in Petco and your park-adjusted statistics wouldn’t be much worse
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| 9:43 |
What kind of year do you foresee Nelson Cruz having in Safeco and are you happy with it or disappointed with it? |
| 9:43 |
: I’m expecting something like the Richie Sexson trajectory. I don’t like it, but I have accepted it. It is a high-maintenance pet or a disappointing nephew
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| 9:44 |
Here’s one thing I’m seeing with the A’s as well. They have Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin coming back from TJS. Sure, they likely won’t be 100%, or at least their command won’t be, for much of the season, but a Gray, Kazmir, Parker, Griffin, Chavez/Milone rotation isn’t a terrible one. |
| 9:44 |
: And right now they have money to spend. I think I saw Joel Sherman tweet out not long ago that now the A’s are looking to add
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| 9:46 |
Are there any current individuals that are rumored trade candidates that you just don’t understand the interest in? |
| 9:46 |
: Markakis was the really puzzling guy, although he was an FA
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| 9:47 |
: From that level, no one else is really confusing.
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| 9:47 |
Does Scherzer end up getting $200 million plus when it is all said and done? |
| 9:47 |
: nope
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| 9:48 |
Have the O’s dropped back a bit with the losses of Cruz and Markakis? If so, which team is the early favorite to take the division in 2015? |
| 9:48 |
: Yeah, they’ve undeniably gotten worse, but then Cruz wasn’t going to repeat last season anyway. The O’s are still in there, even if they’re magic, but right now I’d say the Red Sox look the best and they’re not even close to being done
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| 9:48 |
: At the moment the Sox and Jays are probably neck and neck
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| 9:49 |
Baez for Hamels – who says no? |
| 9:49 |
: Cubs
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| 9:49 |
If one were to assume Melky’s medical issue were entirely responsible for his -.9 WAR 2013, how much might his 2015 projection change if he’d put up something like 2.5 instead? |
| 9:49 |
: He’d be projected for 2 – 2.5 WAR
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| 9:49 |
: And that would be fair — he’s probably about an average player
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| 9:49 |
Chances Orioles end up with Upton? Any inkling what a possible trade package looks like? Braves have had a weird offseason…so it feels like a steal is possible. |
| 9:49 |
: A steal is definitely not possible for getting Justin Upton right now
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| 9:50 |
SA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are close to acquiring Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks. |
| 9:50 |
: Been in the works for some time. Cubs needed a Russell Martin Plan B and it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting Grandal
|
| 9:50 |
If a catcher such as Miguel Montero has a reputation as a really good framer, could that be a tie-breaker in a decision by a pitcher, let’s say Lon Jester? |
| 9:50 |
: No, not really
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| 9:51 |
What would be the better value: 4.5 years of Cruz/Cabrera at $120M or 6 years of Lester at 150? |
| 9:51 |
: Probably Lester
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| 9:51 |
Yankees are one Chase Headley signing from being 4th in MLB in projected WAR. That seems way too optimistic even for a NYY fan and with rotation additions presumably incoming. |
| 9:51 |
: I’ll be happy when we have ZiPS all folded in here too, but I think the take-home message would be, the Yankees don’t actually need all that much help
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| 9:51 |
What prospect could you see getting called up and making an impact in 2015 for the Mariners? |
| 9:51 |
: Kivlehan
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| 9:52 |
If a team was willing to take all or near all of Kemp’s contract, shouldn’t they get him for very little in return? |
| 9:52 |
: Yes, but right now the Dodgers don’t have that sense of urgency so they’re demanding a lot. Doesn’t matter what the Dodgers demand; it matters what ultimately happens, and they know he’s not worth that money
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| 9:52 |
If you were Padres brass, how much of Kemp’s contract would L.A. have to eat for you to unload Grandal straight up? |
| 9:53 |
: Was talking about this last night. At least something on the order of half
|
| 9:53 |
are there any teams realy intrrested in C.J. wilson? |
| 9:53 |
: Not in terms of having him on their team
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| 9:53 |
Do you think A’s could have done a better deal for “Shark” waiting to July? |
| 9:53 |
: Prices are always up in July, but then you have the risk of four months of baseball taking place between the offseason and the deadline.
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| 9:54 |
: The Phillies could do better with Hamels in July. Or, Hamels could pull a Cliff Lee and get hurt
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| 9:54 |
Seems like Aoki would be a better fit for the M’s than Melky, since he’d fit hitting 2nd in the line up. |
| 9:55 |
: They want a righty or a switch-hitter, but, yes
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| 9:56 |
It looks like the Red Sox are seeing their chances at returning Jon Lester to Beantown are ebbing away.. What do the red sox and Ben Cherrington do at that point.. change directions to include Cole Hamels?. Make a deal centered around Cespedes for Danny Salazar?.. other? Your thougths?… |
| 9:57 |
: They look at Shields, they look at Hamels, and they look at Zimmermann and Cueto. Maybe they even look at Price. The Red Sox aren’t all about bringing Lester back, so they have ideas in place should they officially fall short in the running
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| 9:57 |
: They’re going to get two starting pitchers
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| 9:58 |
Part of Hahn’s thinking has to be Jose Abreu’s window of “greatness.” A rebuild would miss his peak years, of which he’s obviously already in… |
| 9:58 |
: It’s weird to be a not-very-good team with Abreu and Sale on it. Kind of like that Marlins team with Stanton and Fernandez and nothing else, except the White Sox actually spend money. You might as well try to fill in teh blanks, as long as you aren’t reversing your overall organizational trend
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| 9:59 |
Do the Mariners end up extending Kuma or is this his last year? What would you do with him if you were Jack Z? |
| 9:59 |
: They’ll eventually extend him
|
| 10:00 |
A rebound to earlier power levels for Jason Heyward? Read somewhere a Cardinals org. guy saying that they believed Heyward’s offensive game had “suffered” from batting leadoff, and that he was focused on hitting grounders/getting on base, but they believed a change in approach could bring the power back. Change of scenery is usually just noise, but he’s young, the Cards have great coaches and a solid lineup, plus contract year…any hope for making good on all that potential in 2015? |
| 10:00 |
: Heyward’s an excellent player *without* the power. So while I’m skeptical he’ll just up and revert to his old self, the good news is he doesn’t have to do that for the Cardinals to be thrilled by his presence.
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| 10:01 |
Please explain to me how Babe Ruth doesn’t get killed on his defensive ratings? I’m related to Earle Combs (Played CF for Yankees with Ruth) and my dad got to talk baseball with him before he passed away, and he said that he would have to play way over towards left field because Ruth was such a pathetic fielder, yet Ruth really doesn’t get dinged that much. |
| 10:01 |
: Babe Ruth debuted 100 years ago
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| 10:02 |
: Who the hell was recording the information? What sort of standard of accuracy could there possibly be?
|
| 10:02 |
Why would the Padres be so interested in Matt Kemp? |
| 10:02 |
: They want a player who can hit and they’ve seen Matt Kemp a lot
|
| 10:03 |
Who do you think will provide more value over their respective four-year deals: Robertson ($40 million) or A. Miller ($36 million)? |
| 10:03 |
: Robertson’s at $46 million. At those prices I’d take Miller
|
| 10:03 |
Do you think Brad Miller can be successfully Zobristified? |
| 10:03 |
: Yeah, he’s versatile. Not as good a hitter, but he’s talented
|
| 10:03 |
Do we have reliable data on how hitters (and catchers, for that matter) respond to Tommy John surgery? |
| 10:04 |
: From what I’ve seen I think they’re fine. Not a concern to the extent it is with pitchers
|
| 10:04 |
Obviously every time a player signs a long contract, we talk about player aging curves and what not. What is the skill for a pitcher and hitter that tends to age the best? |
| 10:04 |
: Command and discipline?
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| 10:04 |
Orioles have been rumored to be shopping Wei Yin Chen, which would leave them with 5 RH starting pitchers next season. Is there a major downside to not having one left handed starter? |
| 10:05 |
: No, it’s overstated, but more a thing to think about when you’re in the playoffs
|
| 10:05 |
I know the AL Central was pretty open, but do you think the white sox are now in a GOOD position to compete for the Central Title? |
| 10:05 |
: Much better than I expected of them, but I still don’t give them great odds
|
| 10:06 |
Am i crazy for thinking the giant contracts for David Robertson and Andrew Miller might turn out okay? |
| 10:06 |
: Nah. Really good players are really good players, and relievers don’t literally lose their ability overnight. Much of the time it doesn’t make great sense to give big commitments to relievers but Miller and Robertson aren’t some of those easily-replaceable sorts.
|
| 10:06 |
Does Walker, Peterson and Miller or Taylor at least get the conversation going for Tulo? |
| 10:07 |
: Sure, if the Rockies are willing to have said conversation in the first place
|
| 10:07 |
With all of these teams presumptively stacking themselves around 80 wins, this might be the most unpredictable season yet? |
| 10:08 |
: Looking that way. I mean, they’re always unpredictable, and you’re going to have teams like the Nationals and Red Sox at the top, but there will be like two or three teams you can really count out from opening day. Who’s going to be selling in July? Maybe *this* is Amaro’s master plan
|
| 10:08 |
Can a team that’s rebuilding but still has a couple good players signed trade them and eat their entire contracts for more prospects. If Toronto doesn’t have the money to sign Lester but the Phillies call and say they can get the rest of Hamels’s contract for no financial cost, isn’t that incredibly valuable to Toronto? |
| 10:09 |
: That would be super valuable, and they would pay for that value by vomiting prospects
|
| 10:09 |
It seems like this offseason there’s been a lot of teams and public sabermetricians valuing players differently. For example, if Dave can see that there isn’t too big a gap between Matt Kemp and Brandon Moss, but teams act like there is, is Dave not seeing everything, or are the teams acting irrationally, or what’s going on? The same goes for Markakis, or Butler, or Cruz. |
| 10:10 |
: I don’t think Dave was arguing that Brandon Moss = Matt Kemp. It was just an interesting thing he observed, suggesting the gap isn’t actually that enormous
|
| 10:11 |
: The Cruz one’s easy to explain, given the team. The Butler one has become easier to explain, given his youth and the amount of money flowing around. Markakis was weird but that was one guy. Moss is coming off a major operation that could have effects on his mobility so you understand a reduced market
|
| 10:11 |
Where does Sale/Shark/Quintana/Rodon rank among baseball’s best rotations? Assuming, of course, that Rodon gets significant playing time this year |
| 10:12 |
: Well, we don’t know about Rodon and there’s crap in the fifth slot, so it’s still not an amazing starting rotation, but it’s solid and good enough to make them competitive
|
| 10:12 |
Why are writers and media people ‘afraid’ of judging Billy Beane in a negative way? Is it because he has proven people wrong before so many times that they don’t want to eat their words later? Or he is a really good guy with a good relation whit the media? |
| 10:12 |
: He doesn’t really give a shit about the media
|
| 10:12 |
: So it’s definitely not relations. It’s, hey, this guy has forever been on the cutting edge, and most writers are not on the cutting edge, so you want to give him some benefit of the doubt. It’s hard to evaluate in total unless you know what the plan is
|
| 10:14 |
Considering Russell Martin’s crazy BABIP year and the certain regression from him offensively, I think I’d prefer the remaining 3 years of $40M for Montero (age 31) to the huge deal Toronto gave Martin. |
| 10:14 |
: Martin was worth 4.1 WAR in 2013 with a .266 BABIP
|
| 10:14 |
: There’s definitely an argument for Montero — Steamer has them as pretty close — and I’m sure that’s what the Cubs are thinking about. but the last two years give you pause, and I like what the Jays gave Martin regardless
|
| 10:15 |
Where does SP Chris Young end up? |
| 10:15 |
: Seattle if they trade a pitcher. The Giants would be interesting and reasonable
|
| 10:15 |
The A’s lost 14 WAR by getting rid of Lester, Shark, Moss, Lowrie and Donaldson. Not gonna be easy to come back from that |
| 10:16 |
: They’re not going to look like one of the very best teams in baseball again
|
| 10:16 |
I don’t get beating up on the A’s for the Moss trade. He’s a 1-tool guy who’s going to earn $15-17 over the next 2 years and is coming off hip surgery. They turned him into a guy who can be a useful 2B or utility guy for 6 years. It’s worse in 2015, but they’re probably better off long-term. |
| 10:16 |
: With Davis around, it makes sense. It’s just another short-term downgrade and people aren’t accustomed to seeing good teams do this
|
| 10:16 |
ESPN is claiming that Semien will be the starting SS. If true, how would that work out? |
| 10:17 |
: Not great, but then, weren’t they just using a lot of Jed Lowrie?
|
| 10:17 |
considering the depressed offensive environment in MLB, does it make any sense spending 150mm on a SP to pitch well into his 30s? Coupled with the injury risk, and the apparent opportunity to get strong performances from non “aces” – why not go after Liriano and McCarthy if you’re the cubs? That should cost substantially less than Lester’s perceived market. |
| 10:18 |
: Lester’s been really good relative to the rest of the environment. There’s a lot of money in the game that’s hard to conceive of. Yeah, it can be safer to diversify, but how safe are Liriano and McCarthy, *really*? The Cubs could afford this — they have so many young players around, they’re low on long-term big-money commitments
|
| 10:19 |
Could RF in Camden Yards be a good environment to mitigate Kemp’s limitations on defense? Shallow porch, easy RF/CF gap and small foul territory make it one of the easier outfield spots in the majors (which may be part of the reason O’s fans overvalue Markakis’s defense). |
| 10:20 |
: MGL claims it doesn’t really matter what the size of the outfield is, so there’s that. Intuitively, it seems like it would be a small factor
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| 10:20 |
In your piece on the A’s, will you allude to how, when a team is built to win now, doesn’t win now, and decides to keep that team together, you wind up with my beloved, woebegone Phillies? |
| 10:20 |
: This is what you can do after you push your chips in and fail — you get some long-term pieces back in exchange for the short-term pieces who didn’t do enough. You never get back everything that you lost — the A’s aren’t getting Addison Russell — but, they gave it a shot. It worked out horribly!
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| 10:21 |
The Nats have been awfully quiet… What do you see being their ‘first domino’? |
| 10:21 |
: They’ve been very noisy behind the scenes. They’re waiting on Lester. They’re going to turn a short-term piece or two into a long-term piece or two, if they get their way
|
| 10:22 |
Thoughts on the Pirates working on resigning Liriano? Good move? |
| 10:22 |
: I’m for it
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| 10:22 |
Is baseball ready for an openly gay player? How about manager? |
| 10:22 |
: Beyond ready
|
| 10:22 |
yanks going to go after Scherzer? They need 2 starters… |
| 10:22 |
: You’re never surprised with the Yankees, but right now I don’t think so
|
| 10:23 |
Do you think the Cubs FO value Lester beyond wins and losses and more for hanging a sign that says now open for business? |
| 10:23 |
: There would be some sort of statement here, but mostly they’re looking to pay for on-field value. They just want to push the timeline up a year or so
|
| 10:24 |
What does Chris Davis (slugger) look at in free agency next year if he posts a decent 105- 120wRC+ season? |
| 10:24 |
: So like a healthier Brandon Moss?
|
| 10:25 |
: It wouldn’t actually be that hefty of a contract, given current market interests
|
| 10:25 |
Cardinals projected at 40.1 WAR. One questions, how? |
| 10:25 |
: They’re basically complete
|
| 10:25 |
: Also, Heyward
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| 10:25 |
Brian McCann is set for a serious bounceback year, right? |
| 10:25 |
: Not serious, but he’ll be better
|
| 10:26 |
You wrote about how I (basically) never ever hit pop-ups and called me a “pure hitter.” Mike Podhorzer wrote about how despite all the ground balls I hit, my average batted ball distance was 289 feet, 67th in MLB. My swinging strike rate points to a coming decline in strikeout rate. I’m 6’4″ and just turned 23 so could still be filling out. What’s my ultimate offensive upside? I feel like people are underestimating my power potential, and how, coupled with my walk and strikeout and contract rates, I could be a monster soon. Do you agree? |
| 10:27 |
: Ultimately there’s a ceiling on how much a hitter can produce when he’s knocking 60% groundballs, but if you figure Yelich isn’t too far away from picking up his man-strength, then you’re looking at a perennial borderline statistical superstar
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| 10:27 |
More likely to reach the post season in 2015 : Marlins, Mets, or Cubs? |
| 10:27 |
: Cubs
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| 10:27 |
It’s been awhile since the FG Front Page received a makeover. The 2014 Season prospect lists are still linked to just under the headline articles even though Kiley has contributed quite a few lists already. Would it be possible to link to these lists on the Front Page? They seem like something people should have easy access to. |
| 10:27 |
: I think we’re working on that
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| 10:27 |
Do organizations with below average player development abilities know they have below average player development abilities or is it the type of situation where everyone feels their own team is above average? |
| 10:27 |
: Everyone thinks they’re pretty good
|
| 10:28 |
Shark and Ynoa to White Sox, Rangel Ravelo, Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt and Josh Phlegley to A’s, FYI………. |
| 10:28 |
What do you think of the new Rays management team? Is there any chance they can duplicate teh success of the outgoing regime? |
| 10:29 |
: I’d say this: every organizational decision is made by a group of individuals. You can lose a member or two of a group and still retain the same general, overall philosophies. I expect the Rays will not operate very differently.
|
| 10:29 |
: Now, betting on them to duplicate what they’ve done would be a stretch, because what they’ve done has been a borderline miracle
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| 10:29 |
the questions and answers are not following each other… This new CIL is off |
| 10:29 |
: That’s my cue to stop and get writing about the A’s
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| 10:30 |
: Busier days than usual right now. So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days
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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Who do blue jays trade Navarro and what his value worth in return?