Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/9/14

December 9, 2014

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Who among us is ready to baseball chat?

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like I’m probably ready but I don’t know

9:00	Comment From Jaack The picture thing tells me this will be a chat about football. WIll this be a chat about football?

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: It sucks

9:00	Comment From adam Does Lindor start in 2015 and what is a realistic slash line?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: He does start but I don’t believe that he starts in the majors

9:01	Comment From adam Do the ChiSox sign Shark long term after this year?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: I think the odds heavily indicate no

9:01	Comment From Dave Was Brandon Moss really only worth a meh prospect?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Evidently. A’s could’ve raised his stock by letting him play so teams would stop wondering so much about the hip surgery, but that was a real factor in negotiations so a pretty good bat with not a lot of other skills wasn’t going to draw a big return given the projected salaries.

9:02	Comment From snarkleupagus where did the mountain go and why are these dudes not playing baseball

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I tried to not have a picture at all and this is what happened

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Great Going, Cover It Live! (TM)

9:03	Comment From S Which baseball market has the biggest room to explode with a regularly competitive team?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: You mean, one that doesn’t have a team yet?

9:03	Comment From Vslyke How much damage is the Markakis deal going to do to the Braves in 2017 & 2018? Is he even a starter by then?

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: The Braves indicated not long ago they were currently being restricted by the bad contracts given to Upton and Uggla. So they’ve admitted that dead money causes issues. Markakis will become dead money. He won’t become as much of it, so they can work around him, but, yeah, he’s not someone they’ll be excited to have in the outfield in a few years.

9:05	Comment From Sirras Mets are theoretically willing to deal a pitcher for a shortstop. Texas is theoretically willing to deal a shortstop for pitching. Do you see anything happening there?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/NYPost_…

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Now that’s just one tweet, but so far it hasn’t felt like the Mets match up great with the teams peddling shortstops. So now I’d say nothing happens with Texas either.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Mets don’t want the Andrus money, and the Rangers probably don’t want to move Profar after he missed the full season.

9:06	Comment From Darth Stout Talk me back from the ledge if Jon Lester doesn’t sign with the Cubs.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Not worth killing yourself if Jon Lester signs somewhere else for $150 – 175 million

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It’s never one player or bust. You can trust that the Cubs will arrange for their to be backup plans. They’ll have a reasonable rotation next season and they’ll contend for at least several months

9:07	Comment From fats anyone else not really worried about the A’s? they don’t look bad at all

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Writing about that immediately after the chat ends. Which, incidentally, means I’ll be chatting for less time than usual. The A’s have downgraded, but they’re still a decent team and now they’ve given themselves the flexibility to make a few additions

9:08	Comment From Sirras I wish I could make that picture at the top go away

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: We all do

9:09	Comment From mtsw What does a realistic Kemp to the Orioles trade look like?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Right now it’s hard to tell what Kemp will actually get traded for, because the Dodgers are making super high demands. So I don’t know what “realistic” looks like, but off the top of my head I wonder if there’s something possibly around Kemp for Ubaldo Jimenez. Obviously not a prospect there going to LA, but it’s an effective and reasonable salary shed

9:10	Comment From kris addison russell for 3 months of samardzija and marcus semien, eh

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they didn’t plan it this way

9:10	Comment From Guest Would you rather the Mariners sign Melky for a Cruz type of deal than part with any prospects or pitching?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Yes. I’ll probably write about this later too. Melky makes more sense at Cruz money than Cruz, it fills a need, and the Mariners need to preserve those long-term control guys to balance out the money

9:11	Comment From Ross How do you weigh signing someone like MelkMan for the Mariners this year to holding off for next years big FA outfield class?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: This year is most important

9:11	Comment From Guest Eno get you trashed yet?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a reason I didn’t get very much done yesterday

9:12	Comment From Matt What are the odds that Semien has a better big league career than Addison Russell?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: 15%?

9:12	Comment From Pale Hose Hey Jeff. Any general thoughts on the White Sox strategy, especially because it seems opposite of last offseason? It seems like the team still needs two solid bats just to get in the WC 2 mix.

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: They’re still not a good team, but it’s easy to dream on Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon with a bullpen back there as well. I don’t think they’re going “all in”, and I don’t think they’re losing critical pieces in the Samardzija move, but there’s enough talent there to win 80+ games and it’s obvious now all the teams are incentivized to compete. There’s just no sense in stripping down, and the White Sox can keep moving forward as an organization while they try to make the big-league product decent in the meantime

9:14	Comment From Kevin So based on the A’s moves, above-average hitting MI prospects are the new market inefficiency?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Team control years are important for teams with no money. The reality of the A’s situation is a team like that can’t really move up on the win curve like other teams do

9:15	Comment From Sandys Little Helper Do you think giving up Syndergaard for Profar is too much now given his injury struggles and the fact that he may need shoulder surgery? Could Gee possibly get it done?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Are you asking me if the Mets could trade Dillon Gee for Jurickson Profar?

9:15	Comment From Guest Thoughts about the White Sox making a push? Wild Card doesn’t seem likely to come out of the AL Central.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: They still project worse than the A’s. That would be one example. I like Rick Hahn and you might as well try to capitalize on Sale while you have him, but the White Sox aren’t really in the process of building a juggernaut here.

9:16	Comment From Garm Bel Iblis Can we at least get a consistent scroll direction?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the other chatters do

9:17	Comment From Toggle switch Reds are open to trading Chapman? Who inside their organization would take over the closer role?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: When you’ve got Miller and Robertson getting what they’re getting, you might as well explore the market. It doesn’t get better than Chapman back there. The Reds have to be listening.

9:18	Comment From mtsw Matt Wieters may not be ready for opening day. How much value does he lose if he’s unable to play catcher going forward and has to move to say, 1B?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Lots. He has a 98 wRC+

9:21	Comment From Ross IF you were the Mariners GM for the winter meetings what realistic move or moves would you make?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Had a thought yesterday that the Mariners might try handing Erasmo Ramirez over to the White Sox for Dayan Viciedo. No reason to believe this is happening, but Ramirez belongs on a team that can use him and Viciedo is getting pricey for a player who is bad. Then the Mariners could try to use Viciedo and Miller in the outfield hole but I totally understand why this might seem really unappealing

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly my perspective is just, don’t do anything that trades away the cheap kids

9:22	Comment From ThePuck What were the Twins thinking signing an old, defensively horrible RF who turns 40 during the season next season? Oh wait, Hunter says anyone who believes in metrics has never played the game and that he’s not horrible out there. In any event, what were they thinking?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty clear the Twins didn’t make that move anticipating that it would help allow them to be competitive in the short-term

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: The Twins wanted to reunite and they had to pay to make it worth Hunter’s while

9:23	Comment From Jon Sullivan Do you have any idea what the thought process behind the Brandon Moss trade was? $7M seemed pretty reasonable for a guy like him.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: No one knows if he’ll be able to play decent defense anymore and a slump like that doesn’t go unnoticed. It’s a reasonable amount of money, but at the same time I see why the A’s might be comfortable paying less to Ike Davis

9:24	Comment From adam Is Dom Brown more valuable trade wise if we plays ok full time or awesome as a platoon?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Full-time, slightly

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that, my room’s internet timed out

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I also can’t get text messages in here. San Diego!

9:28	Comment From lunch who’s having the weirdest/hardest to understand offseason? the A’s? the braves? i feel like those are the top two. i mean, the white sox trying to contend is sort of a surprise, but at least its clear what their plan is.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Padres, based on what they’re trying to do?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, I think the A’s are easy to explain, and the Braves are also easy to explain. Doesn’t necessarily make them right, but you can see the ideas driving the moves being made

9:29	Comment From JD Blue Are the Angels going to get any SP this offseason? Do they need to upgrade the rotation to compete next year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: They already picked up a little bit of unremarkable depth, and I suspect they’re feeling limited by payroll commitments. Possible they try for someone like, say, Colon, but I doubt they sign a big contract and they don’t have prospects to trade for good pitchers

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: As for the second question, no

9:31	Comment From Johnny Utah Thoughts on the Robertson deal? Is he worth 4/$46?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I like Miller a little more, but Robertson is more proven, plus he has the “closer” history. I think he’s worth 4/46 on a team that isn’t really the current White Sox, but I don’t think the deal is bad. Not a lot of upside but I doubt he does too much harm to the club

9:32	Comment From Derek Smalls Do the Mariners ultimately trade Miller or Taylor or make one Zobristy?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: All about what they do in RF. They could trade Miller for a right fielder, but if they sign a free agent, suddenly there’s nothing to plug and Miller could become a super-utility sort. Taylor, not so much

9:32	Comment From Daryl What do you see the Reds doing? Any rumors out there? Has someone checked Walt’s pulse and at least made sure he is awake?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Lots of rumors out there, but they’re stuck in a weird position where they’re too good to sell but too bad to really contend for the World Series. I think they try to give this group one more go, bringing in little role players to fill the holes, but they’re also going to trade a one-year player or two

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Very possibly for a different one-year player

9:34	Comment From Vslyke Thanks for answering Jeff. One more question: what’s your impression of the new Braves FO? Step forward or back from Wren?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I think, as an overall organization, they’re going to continue to operate like the Braves. I think the philosophical differences are going to be subtle

9:34	Comment From Sandys Little Helper if cubs don’t sign lester, could a syndergaard/plawecki for russell trade happen?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Why would they trade Russell

9:35	Comment From Guest Can you invert the chat? Szym and Eno have figured out how to do it with this new client, and it’s much friendlier.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll look for how to do that next week

9:35	Comment From Nate A Montero (vs RHP) and Castillo (vs LHP) platoon looks to be real smooth for the Cubs, no?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Well Montero seems like he might be done hitting, but that would be better than Castillo and no one

9:36	Comment From ThePuck I’m moving to Utah next year, any chance Salt Lake gets a baseball team in the near future?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Not one that isn’t the one that it has

9:37	Comment From mtsw Given the high demand low supply of free agent shortstops this offseason, how much money did JJ Hardy cost himself by not becoming a free agent?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Might not actually be that much. His contract isn’t so much smaller than the one it looks like Chase Headley might end up signing. Hardy could’ve made more, but I don’t think he was going to get into another stratosphere

9:38	Comment From Rob Is it weird there are reports of the Astros going after Robertson and Miller – are they closer than we think or just looking to satisfy their fan base?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The first one is true, but mostly I think the Astros are looking at the market and thinking, hey, we could get one of these guys and trade him in July

9:39	Comment From Guest What’s the price of a win this offseason? And what do we mean when we talk about the “price of a win”? Is it fair to compare the price of a win paid for e.g. Jason Hammel and compare to e.g. Jon Lester?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I think last I saw, Dave estimated it at like $9-10 million so far, but by the end of the offseason it’ll probably settle around $7.5 million. And yes, it is fair to compare, because even though those are very different players, the observations we’ve made are that the market pays players rather linearly

9:42	Comment From Matt Kemps Bat How much will I suffer from a move to Seattle or San Diego? Considering lineups and parks.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Tony would have a more detailed response, but your all-fields power would make you more playable in Seattle. You’d struggle some in Petco, but the thing about that is everyone struggles in Petco and your park-adjusted statistics wouldn’t be much worse

9:43	Comment From Ross What kind of year do you foresee Nelson Cruz having in Safeco and are you happy with it or disappointed with it?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I’m expecting something like the Richie Sexson trajectory. I don’t like it, but I have accepted it. It is a high-maintenance pet or a disappointing nephew

9:44

Comment From BassmanUW
Here’s one thing I’m seeing with the A’s as well. They have Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin coming back from TJS. Sure, they likely won’t be 100%, or at least their command won’t be, for much of the season, but a Gray, Kazmir, Parker, Griffin, Chavez/Milone rotation isn’t a terrible one.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: And right now they have money to spend. I think I saw Joel Sherman tweet out not long ago that now the A’s are looking to add

9:46	Comment From Sirras Are there any current individuals that are rumored trade candidates that you just don’t understand the interest in?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Markakis was the really puzzling guy, although he was an FA

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: From that level, no one else is really confusing.

9:47	Comment From Ross Does Scherzer end up getting $200 million plus when it is all said and done?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:48	Comment From Enyr Have the O’s dropped back a bit with the losses of Cruz and Markakis? If so, which team is the early favorite to take the division in 2015?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ve undeniably gotten worse, but then Cruz wasn’t going to repeat last season anyway. The O’s are still in there, even if they’re magic, but right now I’d say the Red Sox look the best and they’re not even close to being done

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: At the moment the Sox and Jays are probably neck and neck

9:49	Comment From KG Baez for Hamels – who says no?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs

9:49	Comment From _David_ If one were to assume Melky’s medical issue were entirely responsible for his -.9 WAR 2013, how much might his 2015 projection change if he’d put up something like 2.5 instead?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: He’d be projected for 2 – 2.5 WAR

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: And that would be fair — he’s probably about an average player

9:49	Comment From Camden Corners Chances Orioles end up with Upton? Any inkling what a possible trade package looks like? Braves have had a weird offseason…so it feels like a steal is possible.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: A steal is definitely not possible for getting Justin Upton right now

9:50	Comment From jocephus SA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are close to acquiring Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Been in the works for some time. Cubs needed a Russell Martin Plan B and it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting Grandal

9:50	Comment From Nate If a catcher such as Miguel Montero has a reputation as a really good framer, could that be a tie-breaker in a decision by a pitcher, let’s say Lon Jester?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No, not really

9:51	Comment From _David_ What would be the better value: 4.5 years of Cruz/Cabrera at $120M or 6 years of Lester at 150?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Lester

9:51	Comment From Chris Yankees are one Chase Headley signing from being 4th in MLB in projected WAR. That seems way too optimistic even for a NYY fan and with rotation additions presumably incoming.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be happy when we have ZiPS all folded in here too, but I think the take-home message would be, the Yankees don’t actually need all that much help

9:51	Comment From Ross What prospect could you see getting called up and making an impact in 2015 for the Mariners?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kivlehan

9:52	Comment From BassmanUW If a team was willing to take all or near all of Kemp’s contract, shouldn’t they get him for very little in return?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but right now the Dodgers don’t have that sense of urgency so they’re demanding a lot. Doesn’t matter what the Dodgers demand; it matters what ultimately happens, and they know he’s not worth that money

9:52	Comment From Nate If you were Padres brass, how much of Kemp’s contract would L.A. have to eat for you to unload Grandal straight up?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Was talking about this last night. At least something on the order of half

9:53	Comment From yeah are there any teams realy intrrested in C.J. wilson?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not in terms of having him on their team

9:53	Comment From MikeS Do you think A’s could have done a better deal for “Shark” waiting to July?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Prices are always up in July, but then you have the risk of four months of baseball taking place between the offseason and the deadline.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies could do better with Hamels in July. Or, Hamels could pull a Cliff Lee and get hurt

9:54	Comment From Guest Seems like Aoki would be a better fit for the M’s than Melky, since he’d fit hitting 2nd in the line up.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: They want a righty or a switch-hitter, but, yes

9:56

Comment From GSon
It looks like the Red Sox are seeing their chances at returning Jon Lester to Beantown are ebbing away.. What do the red sox and Ben Cherrington do at that point.. change directions to include Cole Hamels?. Make a deal centered around Cespedes for Danny Salazar?.. other? Your thougths?…

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They look at Shields, they look at Hamels, and they look at Zimmermann and Cueto. Maybe they even look at Price. The Red Sox aren’t all about bringing Lester back, so they have ideas in place should they officially fall short in the running

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to get two starting pitchers

9:58	Comment From Nate Part of Hahn’s thinking has to be Jose Abreu’s window of “greatness.” A rebuild would miss his peak years, of which he’s obviously already in…

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird to be a not-very-good team with Abreu and Sale on it. Kind of like that Marlins team with Stanton and Fernandez and nothing else, except the White Sox actually spend money. You might as well try to fill in teh blanks, as long as you aren’t reversing your overall organizational trend

9:59	Comment From Ross Do the Mariners end up extending Kuma or is this his last year? What would you do with him if you were Jack Z?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll eventually extend him