Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/9/14

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Who among us is ready to baseball chat?

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like I’m probably ready but I don’t know

9:00
Comment From Jaack
The picture thing tells me this will be a chat about football. WIll this be a chat about football?

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: It sucks

9:00
Comment From adam
Does Lindor start in 2015 and what is a realistic slash line?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: He does start but I don’t believe that he starts in the majors

9:01
Comment From adam
Do the ChiSox sign Shark long term after this year?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I think the odds heavily indicate no

9:01
Comment From Dave
Was Brandon Moss really only worth a meh prospect?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Evidently. A’s could’ve raised his stock by letting him play so teams would stop wondering so much about the hip surgery, but that was a real factor in negotiations so a pretty good bat with not a lot of other skills wasn’t going to draw a big return given the projected salaries.

9:02
Comment From snarkleupagus
where did the mountain go and why are these dudes not playing baseball

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I tried to not have a picture at all and this is what happened

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Great Going, Cover It Live! (TM)

9:03
Comment From S
Which baseball market has the biggest room to explode with a regularly competitive team?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: You mean, one that doesn’t have a team yet?

9:03
Comment From Vslyke
How much damage is the Markakis deal going to do to the Braves in 2017 & 2018? Is he even a starter by then?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: The Braves indicated not long ago they were currently being restricted by the bad contracts given to Upton and Uggla. So they’ve admitted that dead money causes issues. Markakis will become dead money. He won’t become as much of it, so they can work around him, but, yeah, he’s not someone they’ll be excited to have in the outfield in a few years.

9:05
Comment From Sirras
Mets are theoretically willing to deal a pitcher for a shortstop. Texas is theoretically willing to deal a shortstop for pitching. Do you see anything happening there?

9:05
9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Now that’s just one tweet, but so far it hasn’t felt like the Mets match up great with the teams peddling shortstops. So now I’d say nothing happens with Texas either.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Mets don’t want the Andrus money, and the Rangers probably don’t want to move Profar after he missed the full season.

9:06
Comment From Darth Stout
Talk me back from the ledge if Jon Lester doesn’t sign with the Cubs.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Not worth killing yourself if Jon Lester signs somewhere else for $150 – 175 million

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: It’s never one player or bust. You can trust that the Cubs will arrange for their to be backup plans. They’ll have a reasonable rotation next season and they’ll contend for at least several months

9:07
Comment From fats
anyone else not really worried about the A’s? they don’t look bad at all

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Writing about that immediately after the chat ends. Which, incidentally, means I’ll be chatting for less time than usual. The A’s have downgraded, but they’re still a decent team and now they’ve given themselves the flexibility to make a few additions

9:08
Comment From Sirras
I wish I could make that picture at the top go away

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: We all do

9:09
Comment From mtsw
What does a realistic Kemp to the Orioles trade look like?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Right now it’s hard to tell what Kemp will actually get traded for, because the Dodgers are making super high demands. So I don’t know what “realistic” looks like, but off the top of my head I wonder if there’s something possibly around Kemp for Ubaldo Jimenez. Obviously not a prospect there going to LA, but it’s an effective and reasonable salary shed

9:10
Comment From kris
addison russell for 3 months of samardzija and marcus semien, eh

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they didn’t plan it this way

9:10
Comment From Guest
Would you rather the Mariners sign Melky for a Cruz type of deal than part with any prospects or pitching?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Yes. I’ll probably write about this later too. Melky makes more sense at Cruz money than Cruz, it fills a need, and the Mariners need to preserve those long-term control guys to balance out the money

9:11
Comment From Ross
How do you weigh signing someone like MelkMan for the Mariners this year to holding off for next years big FA outfield class?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: This year is most important

9:11
Comment From Guest
Eno get you trashed yet?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a reason I didn’t get very much done yesterday

9:12
Comment From Matt
What are the odds that Semien has a better big league career than Addison Russell?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: 15%?

9:12
Comment From Pale Hose
Hey Jeff. Any general thoughts on the White Sox strategy, especially because it seems opposite of last offseason? It seems like the team still needs two solid bats just to get in the WC 2 mix.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still not a good team, but it’s easy to dream on Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon with a bullpen back there as well. I don’t think they’re going “all in”, and I don’t think they’re losing critical pieces in the Samardzija move, but there’s enough talent there to win 80+ games and it’s obvious now all the teams are incentivized to compete. There’s just no sense in stripping down, and the White Sox can keep moving forward as an organization while they try to make the big-league product decent in the meantime

9:14
Comment From Kevin
So based on the A’s moves, above-average hitting MI prospects are the new market inefficiency?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Team control years are important for teams with no money. The reality of the A’s situation is a team like that can’t really move up on the win curve like other teams do

9:15
Comment From Sandys Little Helper
Do you think giving up Syndergaard for Profar is too much now given his injury struggles and the fact that he may need shoulder surgery? Could Gee possibly get it done?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Are you asking me if the Mets could trade Dillon Gee for Jurickson Profar?

9:15
Comment From Guest
Thoughts about the White Sox making a push? Wild Card doesn’t seem likely to come out of the AL Central.

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: They still project worse than the A’s. That would be one example. I like Rick Hahn and you might as well try to capitalize on Sale while you have him, but the White Sox aren’t really in the process of building a juggernaut here.

9:16
Comment From Garm Bel Iblis
Can we at least get a consistent scroll direction?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the other chatters do

9:17
Comment From Toggle switch
Reds are open to trading Chapman? Who inside their organization would take over the closer role?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: When you’ve got Miller and Robertson getting what they’re getting, you might as well explore the market. It doesn’t get better than Chapman back there. The Reds *have* to be listening.

9:18
Comment From mtsw
Matt Wieters may not be ready for opening day. How much value does he lose if he’s unable to play catcher going forward and has to move to say, 1B?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Lots. He has a 98 wRC+

9:21
Comment From Ross
IF you were the Mariners GM for the winter meetings what realistic move or moves would you make?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Had a thought yesterday that the Mariners might try handing Erasmo Ramirez over to the White Sox for Dayan Viciedo. No reason to believe this is happening, but Ramirez belongs on a team that can use him and Viciedo is getting pricey for a player who is bad. Then the Mariners could try to use Viciedo and Miller in the outfield hole but I totally understand why this might seem really unappealing

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly my perspective is just, don’t do anything that trades away the cheap kids

9:22
Comment From ThePuck
What were the Twins thinking signing an old, defensively horrible RF who turns 40 during the season next season? Oh wait, Hunter says anyone who believes in metrics has never played the game and that he’s not horrible out there. In any event, what were they thinking?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty clear the Twins didn’t make that move anticipating that it would help allow them to be competitive in the short-term

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: The Twins wanted to reunite and they had to pay to make it worth Hunter’s while

9:23
Comment From Jon Sullivan
Do you have any idea what the thought process behind the Brandon Moss trade was? $7M seemed pretty reasonable for a guy like him.

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: No one knows if he’ll be able to play decent defense anymore and a slump like that doesn’t go unnoticed. It’s a reasonable amount of money, but at the same time I see why the A’s might be comfortable paying less to Ike Davis

9:24
Comment From adam
Is Dom Brown more valuable trade wise if we plays ok full time or awesome as a platoon?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Full-time, slightly

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that, my room’s internet timed out

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I also can’t get text messages in here. San Diego!

9:28
Comment From lunch
who’s having the weirdest/hardest to understand offseason? the A’s? the braves? i feel like those are the top two. i mean, the white sox trying to contend is sort of a surprise, but at least its clear what their plan is.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Padres, based on what they’re trying to do?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, I think the A’s are easy to explain, and the Braves are also easy to explain. Doesn’t necessarily make them *right*, but you can see the ideas driving the moves being made

9:29
Comment From JD Blue
Are the Angels going to get any SP this offseason? Do they need to upgrade the rotation to compete next year?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: They already picked up a little bit of unremarkable depth, and I suspect they’re feeling limited by payroll commitments. Possible they try for someone like, say, Colon, but I doubt they sign a big contract and they don’t have prospects to trade for good pitchers

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: As for the second question, no

9:31
Comment From Johnny Utah
Thoughts on the Robertson deal? Is he worth 4/$46?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I like Miller a little more, but Robertson is more proven, plus he has the “closer” history. I think he’s worth 4/46 on a team that isn’t really the current White Sox, but I don’t think the deal is bad. Not a lot of upside but I doubt he does too much harm to the club

9:32
Comment From Derek Smalls
Do the Mariners ultimately trade Miller or Taylor or make one Zobristy?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: All about what they do in RF. They could trade Miller for a right fielder, but if they sign a free agent, suddenly there’s nothing to plug and Miller could become a super-utility sort. Taylor, not so much

9:32
Comment From Daryl
What do you see the Reds doing? Any rumors out there? Has someone checked Walt’s pulse and at least made sure he is awake?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of rumors out there, but they’re stuck in a weird position where they’re too good to sell but too bad to really contend for the World Series. I think they try to give this group one more go, bringing in little role players to fill the holes, but they’re also going to trade a one-year player or two

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Very possibly for a different one-year player

9:34
Comment From Vslyke
Thanks for answering Jeff. One more question: what’s your impression of the new Braves FO? Step forward or back from Wren?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think, as an overall organization, they’re going to continue to operate like the Braves. I think the philosophical differences are going to be subtle

9:34
Comment From Sandys Little Helper
if cubs don’t sign lester, could a syndergaard/plawecki for russell trade happen?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Why would they trade Russell

9:35
Comment From Guest
Can you invert the chat? Szym and Eno have figured out how to do it with this new client, and it’s much friendlier.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll look for how to do that next week

9:35
Comment From Nate
A Montero (vs RHP) and Castillo (vs LHP) platoon looks to be real smooth for the Cubs, no?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Well Montero seems like he might be done hitting, but that would be better than Castillo and no one

9:36
Comment From ThePuck
I’m moving to Utah next year, any chance Salt Lake gets a baseball team in the near future?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Not one that isn’t the one that it has

9:37
Comment From mtsw
Given the high demand low supply of free agent shortstops this offseason, how much money did JJ Hardy cost himself by not becoming a free agent?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Might not actually be that much. His contract isn’t *so* much smaller than the one it looks like Chase Headley might end up signing. Hardy could’ve made more, but I don’t think he was going to get into another stratosphere

9:38
Comment From Rob
Is it weird there are reports of the Astros going after Robertson and Miller – are they closer than we think or just looking to satisfy their fan base?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: The first one is true, but mostly I think the Astros are looking at the market and thinking, hey, we could get one of these guys and trade him in July

9:39
Comment From Guest
What’s the price of a win this offseason? And what do we mean when we talk about the “price of a win”? Is it fair to compare the price of a win paid for e.g. Jason Hammel and compare to e.g. Jon Lester?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I think last I saw, Dave estimated it at like $9-10 million so far, but by the end of the offseason it’ll probably settle around $7.5 million. And yes, it is fair to compare, because even though those are very different players, the observations we’ve made are that the market pays players rather linearly

9:42
Comment From Matt Kemps Bat
How much will I suffer from a move to Seattle or San Diego? Considering lineups and parks.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Tony would have a more detailed response, but your all-fields power would make you more playable in Seattle. You’d struggle some in Petco, but the thing about that is *everyone* struggles in Petco and your park-adjusted statistics wouldn’t be much worse

9:43
Comment From Ross
What kind of year do you foresee Nelson Cruz having in Safeco and are you happy with it or disappointed with it?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I’m expecting something like the Richie Sexson trajectory. I don’t like it, but I have accepted it. It is a high-maintenance pet or a disappointing nephew

9:44
Comment From BassmanUW
Here’s one thing I’m seeing with the A’s as well. They have Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin coming back from TJS. Sure, they likely won’t be 100%, or at least their command won’t be, for much of the season, but a Gray, Kazmir, Parker, Griffin, Chavez/Milone rotation isn’t a terrible one.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: And right now they have money to spend. I think I saw Joel Sherman tweet out not long ago that now the A’s are looking to add

9:46
Comment From Sirras
Are there any current individuals that are rumored trade candidates that you just don’t understand the interest in?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Markakis was the really puzzling guy, although he was an FA

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: From that level, no one else is really confusing.

9:47
Comment From Ross
Does Scherzer end up getting $200 million plus when it is all said and done?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:48
Comment From Enyr
Have the O’s dropped back a bit with the losses of Cruz and Markakis? If so, which team is the early favorite to take the division in 2015?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ve undeniably gotten worse, but then Cruz wasn’t going to repeat last season anyway. The O’s are still in there, even if they’re magic, but right now I’d say the Red Sox look the best and they’re not even close to being done

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: At the moment the Sox and Jays are probably neck and neck

9:49
Comment From KG
Baez for Hamels – who says no?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs

9:49
Comment From _David_
If one were to assume Melky’s medical issue were entirely responsible for his -.9 WAR 2013, how much might his 2015 projection change if he’d put up something like 2.5 instead?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: He’d be projected for 2 – 2.5 WAR

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: And that would be fair — he’s probably about an average player

9:49
Comment From Camden Corners
Chances Orioles end up with Upton? Any inkling what a possible trade package looks like? Braves have had a weird offseason…so it feels like a steal is possible.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: A steal is definitely not possible for getting Justin Upton right now

9:50
Comment From jocephus
SA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are close to acquiring Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Been in the works for some time. Cubs needed a Russell Martin Plan B and it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting Grandal

9:50
Comment From Nate
If a catcher such as Miguel Montero has a reputation as a really good framer, could that be a tie-breaker in a decision by a pitcher, let’s say Lon Jester?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: No, not really

9:51
Comment From _David_
What would be the better value: 4.5 years of Cruz/Cabrera at $120M or 6 years of Lester at 150?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Lester

9:51
Comment From Chris
Yankees are one Chase Headley signing from being 4th in MLB in projected WAR. That seems way too optimistic even for a NYY fan and with rotation additions presumably incoming.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be happy when we have ZiPS all folded in here too, but I think the take-home message would be, the Yankees don’t actually need all that much help

9:51
Comment From Ross
What prospect could you see getting called up and making an impact in 2015 for the Mariners?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Kivlehan

9:52
Comment From BassmanUW
If a team was willing to take all or near all of Kemp’s contract, shouldn’t they get him for very little in return?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but right now the Dodgers don’t have that sense of urgency so they’re demanding a lot. Doesn’t matter what the Dodgers demand; it matters what ultimately happens, and they know he’s not worth that money

9:52
Comment From Nate
If you were Padres brass, how much of Kemp’s contract would L.A. have to eat for you to unload Grandal straight up?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Was talking about this last night. At least something on the order of half

9:53
Comment From yeah
are there any teams realy intrrested in C.J. wilson?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Not in terms of having him on their team

9:53
Comment From MikeS
Do you think A’s could have done a better deal for “Shark” waiting to July?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Prices are always up in July, but then you have the risk of four months of baseball taking place between the offseason and the deadline.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies could do better with Hamels in July. Or, Hamels could pull a Cliff Lee and get hurt

9:54
Comment From Guest
Seems like Aoki would be a better fit for the M’s than Melky, since he’d fit hitting 2nd in the line up.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: They want a righty or a switch-hitter, but, yes

9:56
Comment From GSon
It looks like the Red Sox are seeing their chances at returning Jon Lester to Beantown are ebbing away.. What do the red sox and Ben Cherrington do at that point.. change directions to include Cole Hamels?. Make a deal centered around Cespedes for Danny Salazar?.. other? Your thougths?…

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They look at Shields, they look at Hamels, and they look at Zimmermann and Cueto. Maybe they even look at Price. The Red Sox aren’t all about bringing Lester back, so they have ideas in place should they officially fall short in the running

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to get two starting pitchers

9:58
Comment From Nate
Part of Hahn’s thinking has to be Jose Abreu’s window of “greatness.” A rebuild would miss his peak years, of which he’s obviously already in…

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird to be a not-very-good team with Abreu and Sale on it. Kind of like that Marlins team with Stanton and Fernandez and nothing else, except the White Sox actually spend money. You might as well try to fill in teh blanks, as long as you aren’t reversing your overall organizational trend

9:59
Comment From Ross
Do the Mariners end up extending Kuma or is this his last year? What would you do with him if you were Jack Z?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll eventually extend him

10:00
Comment From Is it in the Cards?
A rebound to earlier power levels for Jason Heyward? Read somewhere a Cardinals org. guy saying that they believed Heyward’s offensive game had “suffered” from batting leadoff, and that he was focused on hitting grounders/getting on base, but they believed a change in approach could bring the power back. Change of scenery is usually just noise, but he’s young, the Cards have great coaches and a solid lineup, plus contract year…any hope for making good on all that potential in 2015?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Heyward’s an excellent player *without* the power. So while I’m skeptical he’ll just up and revert to his old self, the good news is he doesn’t have to do that for the Cardinals to be thrilled by his presence.

10:01
Comment From Matt
Please explain to me how Babe Ruth doesn’t get killed on his defensive ratings? I’m related to Earle Combs (Played CF for Yankees with Ruth) and my dad got to talk baseball with him before he passed away, and he said that he would have to play way over towards left field because Ruth was such a pathetic fielder, yet Ruth really doesn’t get dinged that much.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Babe Ruth debuted 100 years ago

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Who the hell was recording the information? What sort of standard of accuracy could there possibly be?

10:02
Comment From THE average sports fan
Why would the Padres be so interested in Matt Kemp?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: They want a player who can hit and they’ve seen Matt Kemp a lot

10:03
Comment From STiVo
Who do you think will provide more value over their respective four-year deals: Robertson ($40 million) or A. Miller ($36 million)?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Robertson’s at $46 million. At those prices I’d take Miller

10:03
Comment From Matt
Do you think Brad Miller can be successfully Zobristified?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s versatile. Not as good a hitter, but he’s talented

10:03
Comment From The Oriole Bird
Do we have reliable data on how hitters (and catchers, for that matter) respond to Tommy John surgery?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: From what I’ve seen I think they’re fine. Not a concern to the extent it is with pitchers

10:04
Comment From big joe mufferaw
Obviously every time a player signs a long contract, we talk about player aging curves and what not. What is the skill for a pitcher and hitter that tends to age the best?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Command and discipline?

10:04
Comment From mtsw
Orioles have been rumored to be shopping Wei Yin Chen, which would leave them with 5 RH starting pitchers next season. Is there a major downside to not having one left handed starter?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: No, it’s overstated, but more a thing to think about when you’re in the playoffs

10:05
Comment From big joe mufferaw
I know the AL Central was pretty open, but do you think the white sox are now in a GOOD position to compete for the Central Title?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Much better than I expected of them, but I still don’t give them great odds

10:06
Comment From TheRealJeffSullivan
Am i crazy for thinking the giant contracts for David Robertson and Andrew Miller might turn out okay?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Nah. Really good players are really good players, and relievers don’t literally lose their ability overnight. Much of the time it doesn’t make great sense to give big commitments to relievers but Miller and Robertson aren’t some of those easily-replaceable sorts.

10:06
Comment From Prich
Does Walker, Peterson and Miller or Taylor at least get the conversation going for Tulo?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, if the Rockies are willing to have said conversation in the first place

10:07
Comment From The Oriole Bird
With all of these teams presumptively stacking themselves around 80 wins, this might be the most unpredictable season yet?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Looking that way. I mean, they’re always unpredictable, and you’re going to have teams like the Nationals and Red Sox at the top, but there will be like two or three teams you can really count out from opening day. Who’s going to be selling in July? Maybe *this* is Amaro’s master plan

10:08
Comment From Julian
Can a team that’s rebuilding but still has a couple good players signed trade them and eat their entire contracts for more prospects. If Toronto doesn’t have the money to sign Lester but the Phillies call and say they can get the rest of Hamels’s contract for no financial cost, isn’t that incredibly valuable to Toronto?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: That would be super valuable, and they would pay for that value by vomiting prospects

10:09
Comment From Julian
It seems like this offseason there’s been a lot of teams and public sabermetricians valuing players differently. For example, if Dave can see that there isn’t too big a gap between Matt Kemp and Brandon Moss, but teams act like there is, is Dave not seeing everything, or are the teams acting irrationally, or what’s going on? The same goes for Markakis, or Butler, or Cruz.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Dave was arguing that Brandon Moss = Matt Kemp. It was just an interesting thing he observed, suggesting the gap isn’t actually that enormous

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: The Cruz one’s easy to explain, given the team. The Butler one has become easier to explain, given his youth and the amount of money flowing around. Markakis was weird but that was one guy. Moss is coming off a major operation that could have effects on his mobility so you understand a reduced market

10:11
Comment From Austin
Where does Sale/Shark/Quintana/Rodon rank among baseball’s best rotations? Assuming, of course, that Rodon gets significant playing time this year

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Well, we don’t know about Rodon and there’s crap in the fifth slot, so it’s still not an amazing starting rotation, but it’s solid and good enough to make them competitive

10:12
Comment From big joe mufferaw
Why are writers and media people ‘afraid’ of judging Billy Beane in a negative way? Is it because he has proven people wrong before so many times that they don’t want to eat their words later? Or he is a really good guy with a good relation whit the media?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t really give a shit about the media

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: So it’s definitely not relations. It’s, hey, this guy has forever been on the cutting edge, and most writers are not on the cutting edge, so you want to give him some benefit of the doubt. It’s hard to evaluate in total unless you know what the plan is

10:14
Comment From Nate
Considering Russell Martin’s crazy BABIP year and the certain regression from him offensively, I think I’d prefer the remaining 3 years of $40M for Montero (age 31) to the huge deal Toronto gave Martin.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Martin was worth 4.1 WAR in 2013 with a .266 BABIP

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: There’s definitely an argument for Montero — Steamer has them as pretty close — and I’m sure that’s what the Cubs are thinking about. but the last two years give you pause, and I like what the Jays gave Martin regardless

10:15
Comment From Derek Smalls
Where does SP Chris Young end up?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Seattle if they trade a pitcher. The Giants would be interesting and reasonable

10:15
Comment From Michael
The A’s lost 14 WAR by getting rid of Lester, Shark, Moss, Lowrie and Donaldson. Not gonna be easy to come back from that

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to look like one of the very best teams in baseball again

10:16
Comment From chuckb
I don’t get beating up on the A’s for the Moss trade. He’s a 1-tool guy who’s going to earn $15-17 over the next 2 years and is coming off hip surgery. They turned him into a guy who can be a useful 2B or utility guy for 6 years. It’s worse in 2015, but they’re probably better off long-term.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: With Davis around, it makes sense. It’s just another short-term downgrade and people aren’t accustomed to seeing good teams do this

10:16
Comment From Tommy
ESPN is claiming that Semien will be the starting SS. If true, how would that work out?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Not great, but then, weren’t they just using a lot of Jed Lowrie?

10:17
Comment From MT
considering the depressed offensive environment in MLB, does it make any sense spending 150mm on a SP to pitch well into his 30s? Coupled with the injury risk, and the apparent opportunity to get strong performances from non “aces” – why not go after Liriano and McCarthy if you’re the cubs? That should cost substantially less than Lester’s perceived market.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Lester’s been really good relative to the rest of the environment. There’s a lot of money in the game that’s hard to conceive of. Yeah, it can be safer to diversify, but how safe are Liriano and McCarthy, *really*? The Cubs could afford this — they have so many young players around, they’re low on long-term big-money commitments

10:19
Comment From mtsw
Could RF in Camden Yards be a good environment to mitigate Kemp’s limitations on defense? Shallow porch, easy RF/CF gap and small foul territory make it one of the easier outfield spots in the majors (which may be part of the reason O’s fans overvalue Markakis’s defense).

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: MGL claims it doesn’t really matter what the size of the outfield is, so there’s that. Intuitively, it seems like it would be a small factor

10:20
Comment From Chris
In your piece on the A’s, will you allude to how, when a team is built to win now, doesn’t win now, and decides to keep that team together, you wind up with my beloved, woebegone Phillies?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: This is what you can do after you push your chips in and fail — you get some long-term pieces back in exchange for the short-term pieces who didn’t do enough. You never get back everything that you lost — the A’s aren’t getting Addison Russell — but, they gave it a shot. It worked out horribly!

10:21
Comment From Prich
The Nats have been awfully quiet… What do you see being their ‘first domino’?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been very noisy behind the scenes. They’re waiting on Lester. They’re going to turn a short-term piece or two into a long-term piece or two, if they get their way

10:22
Comment From PirateCaptain
Thoughts on the Pirates working on resigning Liriano? Good move?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I’m for it

10:22
Comment From Brett W
Is baseball ready for an openly gay player? How about manager?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Beyond ready

10:22
Comment From nolan
yanks going to go after Scherzer? They need 2 starters…

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: You’re never surprised with the Yankees, but right now I don’t think so

10:23
Comment From Machine That Goes Beep
Do you think the Cubs FO value Lester beyond wins and losses and more for hanging a sign that says now open for business?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: There would be some sort of statement here, but mostly they’re looking to pay for on-field value. They just want to push the timeline up a year or so

10:24
Comment From Nate
What does Chris Davis (slugger) look at in free agency next year if he posts a decent 105- 120wRC+ season?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: So like a healthier Brandon Moss?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t actually be that hefty of a contract, given current market interests

10:25
Comment From Machine That Goes Beep
Cardinals projected at 40.1 WAR. One questions, how?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: They’re basically complete

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Also, Heyward

10:25
Comment From Cool Lester Smooth
Brian McCann is set for a serious bounceback year, right?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not serious, but he’ll be better

10:26
Comment From Christian Yelich
You wrote about how I (basically) never ever hit pop-ups and called me a “pure hitter.” Mike Podhorzer wrote about how despite all the ground balls I hit, my average batted ball distance was 289 feet, 67th in MLB. My swinging strike rate points to a coming decline in strikeout rate. I’m 6’4″ and just turned 23 so could still be filling out. What’s my ultimate offensive upside? I feel like people are underestimating my power potential, and how, coupled with my walk and strikeout and contract rates, I could be a monster soon. Do you agree?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately there’s a ceiling on how much a hitter can produce when he’s knocking 60% groundballs, but if you figure Yelich isn’t too far away from picking up his man-strength, then you’re looking at a perennial borderline statistical superstar

10:27
Comment From Too Much Tuna
More likely to reach the post season in 2015 : Marlins, Mets, or Cubs?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs

10:27
Comment From John Stamos
It’s been awhile since the FG Front Page received a makeover. The 2014 Season prospect lists are still linked to just under the headline articles even though Kiley has contributed quite a few lists already. Would it be possible to link to these lists on the Front Page? They seem like something people should have easy access to.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re working on that

10:27
Comment From mtsw
Do organizations with below average player development abilities know they have below average player development abilities or is it the type of situation where everyone feels their own team is above average?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone thinks they’re pretty good

10:28
Comment From kevinthecomic
Shark and Ynoa to White Sox, Rangel Ravelo, Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt and Josh Phlegley to A’s, FYI……….

10:28
Comment From AA
What do you think of the new Rays management team? Is there any chance they can duplicate teh success of the outgoing regime?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say this: every organizational decision is made by a group of individuals. You can lose a member or two of a group and still retain the same general, overall philosophies. I expect the Rays will not operate very differently.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Now, betting on them to duplicate what they’ve done would be a stretch, because what they’ve done has been a borderline miracle

10:29
Comment From big joe mufferaw
the questions and answers are not following each other… This new CIL is off

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: That’s my cue to stop and get writing about the A’s

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Busier days than usual right now. So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/9/14 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Jensan
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Jensan

Who do blue jays trade Navarro and what his value worth in return?