Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/9/16

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to a somewhat abbreviated Friday baseball chat

9:06	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:07	CamdenWarehouse: I’m not the only one who like the Eaton trade for the Nationals, am I?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Not at all. It doesn’t take a lot to get pushed over the edge. If you believe in WAR and also believe Giolito is kind of overrated, you like the deal. If you think Eaton is just an average hitter and Giolito is about to break out as an ace or a No. 2, you don’t like the deal

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I think they paid a big price but Eaton stands to give them more value in the present and future than McCutchen would’ve. If and assuming Eaton’s defense plays in the middle, he’s going to be really good for them

9:09	Andrew: As a Mets fan, I feel relatively uninspired by this offseason and by this team. Cheer me up, please?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: You have a super awesome young power pitching staff and one should think it’ll collectively have more health in 2017 than in 2016

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: The healthy Mets might have baseball’s best rotation. There wasn’t a lot they needed to do this winter. They should still dump Bruce and get another reliever but that stuff is fairly uninteresting

9:10	Grant: Regarding young SPs, I often hear of guys having either ace, mid-rotation, or #5 potential. Are there young SPs that have true SP2 profiles out there? Or are they “aces” that don’t get all the way there

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, maybe McCullers profiles as a No. 2. Great talent, tons of whiffs, but he’s always going to be too inefficient to soak up 200+ innings

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of Erik Bedard-y

9:11	biffyclyro: As a Cubs fan, how do I reconcile my happiness that Dexter Fowler finally got paid with my disappointment that it’s with the Cardinals?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: World Series!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: woooooo!!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Fowler’s best years will come at the start of the contract. During those years, the Cubs look the best, so they’re likely to still win the division

9:12	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Nats-White Sox Eaton trade: On a gut level, that seemed like a wild overpay from WAS. Am I right about that, or am I severely undervaluing Adam Eaton?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Undervaluing Eaton, and probably overvaluing Giolito

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: And of course it’s not just Eaton’s performance. His contract is so absurdly team-friendly. He could be worth more than his remaining commitment in just 2017 alone

9:14	Barry from Boston: Can Pomerantz fetch a decent enough 3B so we don’t have to look at Sandoval at all?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be shocked if they just made a bench move and gave Sandoval another 2 or 3 months to try to prove himself

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Pomeranz does have trade value but not as much as he might if he stays healthy and effective for half of a season

9:16	Pearced: So what should the Jays do now?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I think you wait out Encarnacion and Bautista — the way things have gone, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to have one of them return

9:18	John: Any guesses at extensions this offseason?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Not my strong suit, I’m afraid. Good Cameron question!

9:18	Matt: Jeff! What do you think about Aaron Nola and his elbow? Tinking about targeting him in a fantasy trade.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: From everything I’ve heard from the Phillies, they believe they successfully dodged a bullet. Now, even in the best interpretation, it’s still not good to be shot at. But this wasn’t PR stuff. Their belief is that Nola should be good to go

9:20	Tacos: What does it take for the Dodgers to get Dozier? De Leon and what other pieces?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Verdugo

9:21	Aladdin Sane: You taking the Fowler or Heyward contract from here? Heyward younger and much better if he fixes, Fowler aging and probably won’t repeat 2016 but no-doubt solid.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Basically off the top of my head, I still have a slight preference for Heyward. I think he bounces back in a big way and he still has prime years to deliver, whereas Fowler is now into his 30s

9:23	Noah: Any chance Dozier goes to a team other than the Dodgers?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I guess there’s some slight chance he goes to the Yankees but the Dodgers are easily the best fit and they have a few options to sort through. The Angels have the biggest need but they don’t have the resources

9:24	Brett W: Do you see good value for both teams in the Davis-Soler trade?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I do. I think I like it more for the Royals and I’m not convinced the Cubs needed to add a closer right now, but Soler was practically out of a job. He had to be moved because his value was going to continue to sink. Davis has the highest upside of any reliever they could acquire

9:26	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Dave liked Milwaukee’s return from Boston more than Thornburg. Agree or disagree?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: In Boston’s situation I’d rather have Thornburg, but I really like what the Brewers got. Dubon intrigues the hell out of me after his midseason burst

9:26	Rhendricks: With the Cardinals signing Fowler, what are the chances that they go after another FA with a draft pick attached? Someone like Turner or EE?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I still just don’t see where there’s room. I get that they’re more incentivized now than they were a week ago, but that infield is full

9:27	Pennsy: Eaton or Turner leading off in DC?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll guess Eaton on account of his greater experience

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a Dusty thing

9:28	Tits Mcgee: Does martes, reed, cameron, Kemp sound right for Quintana?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Nope, too light

9:29	Tommy Lasordid: If Jansen signs elsewhere, Does Grant Dayton project as a possible closer in LA, or do they look elsewhere?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: They look elsewhere. Maybe Robertson, maybe Colome, maybe they wait a few months to see if Doolittle is healthy

9:30	Ned Yost: If you were a GM of a contending team, would you rather buy low and trade for Alex Cobb or buy high and acquire Danny Duffy?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I would feel far more certain about Duffy being able to help my team win in 2017

9:31	groucho: Let’s say you convinced the angels to trade you trout, but you also had to take on Pujols and both contracts fully. What kind of package would you have to give up in return?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Running some quick numbers here: Trout has something like $180-200 million in surplus value. Pujols is in the red by like $125 million. So you’d still be looking at like $60-70 million of positive value, leaving aside luxury-tax concerns, which I assume I am to ignore in this hypothetical

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not trading a Chris Sale package, but something similar to the Eaton exchange would fit here

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Two high-quality prospects, and some extra stuff

9:33	groucho: What do you think of the Fowler deal?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: It surprised me. Now that we sort of understand his defense is better than we thought, it’s not horrible or anything. And this way the Cardinals don’t have to give up any young players. They’re going to need those young players because the core continues to age. I think it’s a known overpay, but they didn’t want to be left without a center fielder

9:35	John: I love you, Jeff.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: xoxo

9:35	Justino: What does a realistic haul from the Cubs look like for the Rays’ Archer?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays would probably insist the package begin with Javier Baez

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Put him with Eloy Jimenez and you would be most of the way there

9:37	The Average Sports Fan: If the Rockies are to be an actual contender, what do they need to do?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Assemble a bullpen

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: And at least like swap Desmond and Gonzalez as OF and 1B

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But the bullpen is a big weakness

9:37	Brett W: What are the Tigers waiting for?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a whole lot for them to do. They can’t and won’t just dump Cabrera. They keep on marketing Martinez but obviously there have been a number of available outfielders. Not enough teams in there for Kinsler and they don’t want to sell him and not get enough back

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers are a little bit trapped. I think this has been understood

9:39	Erik: What are the odds that one or both of Encarnacion/Bautista ends up getting Fowler’d and crawls back the the Blue Jays on an under-market one year deal?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see both, but I can see one settling for a year or two. Probably Bautista

9:40

Ian Encarnacion: Wouldnt it be nice if the Tampa Rays just decided, you know what we have the pitching, for one year we are going to acquire bats and go for it. and they go to the Mets and take on Bruce, Granderson, and Duda to add 80 Homeruns to their lineup. They would likely just need to take on the one year salaries and trade a middle reliever.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: And then the Mets would be like, can we have two of those back

9:41	Tacos: The Sale and Eaton trades were fun. Who is the next big name traded?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: David Robertson count?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: That one feels like it’s coming quick

9:42	Tacoby Bellsbury: Orioles have to at least entertain idea of trading Zach Britton, right? What sort of package might he command?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they have it in mind, but more realistically, I’d think they’ll see what they have and then maybe think about moving him in July if the season isn’t going so well. He’s not going to really lose any value between now and then

9:43	Dougie: Would you say that the Fowler signing makes another big move more or less likely for the Cardinals?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a necessity

9:43	Twoseaming: Over/Under for Giolito (MLB): GS 20 / IP 130

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Like, forever? Over

9:43	Everything’s On Sale!: ZIPs seems to think the Red Sox got rolled (-26 time independent wins, for a 4 win increase this season), and I agree. I thought the Moncada trade was awful, though Cameron doesn’t think so. Any thoughts on this?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the last pitcher we’ve seen traded when he had as much value as Sale does

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: He’s obnoxiously good and obnoxiously cheap for what he is. The Red Sox are now the best team in their league and easy favorites in the division. I understand it, and there’s enough there with Moncada to make you wonder if he’s really the lock the No. 1 ranking would suggest

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I would operate with a more conservative leaning, but Sale is incredible and Moncada meant nothing to the Red Sox’ plans in 2017. If this was an overpay, it was slight

9:46	Twoseaming: Who’s got the edge for KC at 2B? Merrifield, Mondesi, Colon, Cuthbert

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: No matter what I answer, you’re going to be depressed

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s Merrifield out of the gate

9:47	J: What did you think of the Eaton trade? Obviously it was pretty controversial. Do you think they could have just signed Fowler instead?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could have signed Fowler instead, and some in the organization would’ve preferred that. That would’ve made it more difficult to go get a closer. Granted, they presumably would’ve just cleared Gio Gonzalez’s salary to make room

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Eaton is a lot more valuable than Fowler will be. So that’s where the prospect cost comes in. Eaton’s contract gives a team so much flexibility

9:49	Tits Mcgee: Does jose abreu for Blake swihart and Sam travis sound right?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Not yet. You’re not getting Abreu for two guys who didn’t play after June 4

9:51	Pete: If Votto’s contract had,say, half as many years on it, what sort of return could he net?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Something pretty similar to what the Twins could get for Dozier

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: You’d be looking at like 4 years and $100 million for one of baseball’s best first basemen

9:51	Twoseaming: Will Don Cooper right the Giolito ship?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I would bet on inconsistency. I like Lopez better

9:52	Xolo: Do the Tigers change course now that the White Sox and Royals have started selling and start looking to add?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: they can’t really do much to add but I wouldn’t be shocked if they mostly stood pat. there’s a window there for them

9:53	CarrotJuice: What’s your hottest take on the Fowler deal?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals got scared and paid to take the easy way out

9:53	Dan: If the ball is juiced going forward in a way that helps players with middle of the road power, does that improve the value of players such as Josh Bell and Dominic Smith that were perceived to be underpowered?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I think it would if we knew it to be true. But right now no one really knows what to expect of the home-run trend in 2017

9:54	Thatoneguy: Was Sherman Johnson selected in the rule 5 draft yesterday?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: he was not

9:55	Brandon Juice Geluso: if the moon was made of spare ribs would you eat it too?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:55	Marshall: What should CLE does about 1B/DH? One of the ex-Jays realistic?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I do think Encarnacion is realistic for them

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: That World Series money has to go somewhere

9:55

JKD: I think the Eaton trade was a good one for the Nats on its own merits (as was the Melancon deal), but IF they also land Jansen, for, say, 5/$80M with an opt-out after two, also worth looking at all those moves in conjunction. For the cost of Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Felipe Rivero, Taylor Hearn, and say $125M, they get Melancon for the stretch run and five years of Jansen+Eaton. Young pitchers and cash, with the only one who’s demonstrated success at the MLB level also a reliever. That seems like a pretty good allocation of resources.

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: More than anything the Nationals as an organization are just sick of losing and losing too quickly. So they’re trying to assemble something of a super-team. Now, of course, the risk there is that the playoffs will always be insane and the Cubs are also a super-team, with the Dodgers trying to get there. But you can’t say the Nationals aren’t going for it

9:56	Guest: How much should the Cardinals be willing to pay to Turner after signing Fowler? 5/90?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Where does he play?

9:57	Zach: Who are some midtier starting pitcher candidates available for trade right now? I’m thinking trading for a No. 4-type pitcher might be a better use of resources than throwing money at someone like Nova.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Go get Buchholz or whatever

9:57	Roman: How many Mike Trouts are the Reds away from being competitive?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Add two Mike Trouts and they can think about being a wild-card underdog. Add three Mike Trouts and they get to participate in a one-game playoff

9:58	Michael: Who SHOULD be a more valuable trade chit: a) Archer, b) Quintana, c) Sale?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: As I’ve thought more about long-term pitcher risk, I think Sale gets a slight edge over Archer, who gets an edge over Quintana

9:58	J: If the playoffs started today who would be the 4 WC teams?