Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/25/14

February 25, 2014

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Hey, I think I’m on time again?

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Tremendous!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball chat!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: And a CoverItLive hiccup! Anyway, off we go

9:03	Comment From Gson ah.. nothing is more frightening than an on time host of a Fangraphs chat…

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I like when Dave is late by like 18 minutes. Yeah, “finishing an article,” whatever, amigo

9:03	Comment From StevePete Is Kole Calhoun going to be a solid player (3 WAR?) for the Angels this year?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, that’s within his range, but I’d think of him as more of a 2-win type with the ordinary error bars. Interesting player, but then everybody’s an interesting player, and that’s why they’re professionals in the first place

9:04	Comment From toot toot is pompeii the worst volcano movie ever?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: You think I’m going to see that?

9:05	Comment From j6takish Taco Bell Breakfast. Discuss

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/teejeejeej/status/438126238092115968

9:05	Comment From Guest Would you rather see Franklin stick around as a super utility guy or traded for Lagares and a pitcher?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Lagares and a pitcher would be wonderful. I’ll also take just a pitcher. There’s some sense in hanging on to Franklin as depth/insurance but he just makes more sense elsewhere and the M’s ought to cash in on that

9:06	Comment From Gson Metallic baby blue with light ash leather interior or obsidian black on black for the Mercedes CL?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Obsidian is a volcano word

9:06	Comment From Gson Should the Cubs take the “best deal they can” w/r to Samardzija right now?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously there’s not enough information available to be able to answer that, but I suspect there’ll be better deals come midseason

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Right now there might be one or two teams in on him and if the Cubs didn’t like what was out there a month ago, they won’t like it now

9:08	Comment From Brad Seems like Zach Wheeler is being overshadowed by the other young pitchers. Is it because his walk rate is high? I don’t mean to compare him to Kershaw, but his was really high too initially. What are your thoughts on Wheeler? Thanks

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler, at 23, had 11% walks and 20% strikeouts. Kershaw, at 20, had 11% walks and 21% strikeouts and a far superior FIP in a lower-strikeout league

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler’s been a 61-62% strike-rate guy and that’s a little low for my likings when you have a guy who isn’t throwing unhittable stuff. Obviously, Kershaw’s going to be the best-case scenario of a guy who comes up and doesn’t throw enough strikes out of the gate, but for every guy who takes a leap forward like Kershaw, there’s the rest of baseball

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Big upside for Wheeler if he boosts that strike rate a few percentage points, but the same could be said of Matt Moore

9:12	Comment From Stephen What do you peg Dan Haren to return this year in IP/ERA/WHIP?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: In nearly all cases, I’m just going to defer to the projections. So I figure Haren’ll throw 170-180 innings, with a mid-3s ERA and a WHIP of who cares about WHIP

9:15

Comment From Teddy
Jeff, the nationals have gotten multiple inquiries on Taylor Jordan, including by the reds for hanigan, and the tigers for fister. What about him do teams like him so much, and for the nationals to refuse to trade him, AND the fact he was never a highly considered prospect. Did scouts miss the boat on him?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Over the last three years, Taylor Jordan has allowed seven home runs.

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t walk anybody, he keeps the ball on the ground, and though his strikeout rate isn’t incredible, it’s acceptable and his big-league contact rate last year was actually 78% to go with low-90s velocity. Jordan is a pretty good and safe starting pitcher right now with years and years of cheap team control ahead of him. He never would’ve been highly rated because scouts look for upside. Jordan has a lower ceiling than a strikeout pitcher, but he also has a high floor and he could be anyone’s No. 4/No. 5 tomorrow from the looks of things

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: A concern is that he’s not going to strike out almost any lefties at all, but then for the league minimum you accept certain drawbacks

9:19	Comment From Brad Would you trade Cano for Puig if you were focusing more on next year than this year? Thanks.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Like, in real life?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’d trade Cano for Puig and his $6.2 million 2015 salary

9:20	Comment From CMR What’s the best predictor of a pitcher’s ability to develop a curveball? Overall command? A change-up? Sticktoitiveness?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question that I don’t have a clear answer to, but at least near the top of the list I’d say arm slot

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Also up there: necessity, and previously-demonstrated ability to pick up a pitch

9:22

Comment From Stephen
Jeff, I’ve been looking at the projections page and noticed only one team is projected for 90 wins. Then I went to ESPN and looked at standings for the last 10 years or so. I noticed that every year at least 5-10 teams won at least 90 teams. Are the teams really that close or is it just a by-product of the projection process?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Projection process. You can think of the projections as being somewhat heavily regressed. In reality, we get a season sample size of 1. So the results are going to be a lot more scattered, and instead of observing true-talent records, we’ll observe true-talent records +/- luck. Some teams will play above their heads, some teams will play below

9:23	Comment From Guest Does a perfect game = 1 WAR?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It sure doesn’t!

9:24	Comment From Chris206 How would a trade of Justin Smoak and signing of Morales make you feel? Warm and fuzzy? Indifferent? Other?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t it depend on terms? I like Morales better as a player in 2014 but there’s a lot left to know besides that

9:24	Comment From Sleepless In a vacuum, would you rather have Hosmer for 1 year or Donaldson for 3 in a keeper league?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems like Donaldson is the obvious answer but I might be too wrapped up in real actual baseball

9:25	Comment From JL I like baseball and the Ottawa Senators. Can we be friends?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Ever climbed a volcano?

9:25	Comment From Book_Worm Would Trout be wise to take 6/$150M, as has been reported? It gets him on the market again at a young age, but is he better off going for more years in his first contract?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: More years, and he’ll get more years by at least one

9:26	Comment From Jon Boras says Drew would be willing to play 2B during an interview with Toronto sports network. This has to happen, right? Protected picks and whatnot.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obvious fit, but it’s also pretty obvious to see Drew in New York or New York. And Toronto might not actually trust him as a 2B, necessarily, or maybe they have their sights set on another guy who wouldn’t cost as much future value or who would provide more future value

9:27	Comment From Aaron Is Goins bad enough that the recently DFA’d Chase D’Arnaud could be an upgrade?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens no

9:28	Comment From Rated Rookie Fredi anticipates 105 (give or take) starts for Gattis behind the dish. Think he starts (OF, DH) and pinch hits enough to get 500PAs.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, he averaged 4.1 PA/start. So this alone would take him up around 420-430.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be close but pretty doable, provided Gattis actually hits for enough power to make up for his low OBP

9:29	Comment From Pirates Hurdles So, the collision rule, the language seems vague and difficult to enforce consistently, no?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t seem all that vague to me, and they needed to draft a compromise in short order to get something in before the start of the season. Sure seems like the wise approach will always be to err toward caution, as any collision could be subject to punishment

9:30	Comment From Gson Did the volcano on Gilligan’s Island have you so enchanted that you didn’t notice seeing Mary Ann running around in those blue short shorts?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: How old do you think I am

9:31	Comment From john Mets propaganda machine at its finest – now all these allegations about Ike, still not happy with Ruben, not happy with harvey. All to deflect that their owners and management have been doing a terrible job. Gotta love the mets!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I’m still trying to understand the Curtis Granderson contract. Where the hell did that come from?

9:31

Comment From hank
Jeff, this might make me sound stupid, but can you explain how the positional adjustment affects a DH’s value? If someone plays literally no innings in the field, is that better than playing one with a negative value? Alternately, is there someone I can read up on it? The glossary wasn’t super helpful…

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: A negative defender still has more value than a DH, provided the defender isn’t so negative he erases the difference in the positional adjustment. The most general idea being, anyone can DH, literally anyone, and from there you start selecting and weeding out as you deal with position players

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe this’ll help: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-win-values-part-three/

9:34	Comment From Mo O’s still sign Morales?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so anymore. I think they’re actually interested in Lough

9:34	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Obsidian Stout, your thoughts?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Fantastic and extra-fantastic on nitro. But I’m less frequently in the mood for something that heavy these days as I scour the market for what I lovingly refer to as “driving beers” more often

9:35	Comment From Bob Carlos Martinez’s twitter feed. How long until the team tells him to shut it down or clean it up?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what you’re referring to, but I assume he’s up to something that’s drawing negative attention, and I’m sure he’ll be spoken to about it at some point before long if that’s the case. Teams won’t regulate a player’s twitter usage, but the policy’s always going to be, don’t do anything we have to deal with later

9:36	Comment From larry now that it seems that basically every team is following the hold onto prospect for dear life model, where do you see the new market inefficiencies popping up? is it possible its aging FA?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think free agency’s ever really going to be a place to find bargains. You’ll only find bargains relative to other free agents, who already cost too much. Could be something to be said about lower-ceiling starting pitchers, or pitchers who succeed while not having swing-and-miss stuff. I don’t know. Over time, the inefficiencies are going to get more and more complex.

9:38	Comment From Bossanova Scott Boras is talking up his free agents not signing until after the draft. Bluff?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: The alternative would be expressing panic and an urgency to sign in the next four weeks

9:40	Comment From Lars Still relatively new to advanced metrics and such…was curious as to why first basemen seem to rate below average defensively in uzr and drs…or am I just perceiving it that way?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an ordinary spread of above-average/below-average defensive first basemen, but then they’re pretty much all negative after you apply the positional adjustment. I’ll include this link again http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-win-values-part-three/

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Even the best defensive first baseman will probably still be a below-average defender overall, given that you’d be including him in a pool with middle infielders and center fielders etc

9:42	Comment From Gson A breath of fresh air?.. a tough as nails/speaks his mind field leader?… give up your thoughts on new Mariners Manager Lloyd “Put up or Shut up” McClendon?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He sounds like a baseball manager. Seems to have a little more personality than the last guy and the guy before him, but we’ll see how much time in the outfield Logan Morrison gets

9:43	Comment From _David_ Do you think eliminating the 6 years of team control would drastically raise costs? It seems like draft picks would become less valuable and old free agents would become the bargains that small market teams target…

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Teams are going to spend on players what they spend on players. If you get rid of the early team control, that money will just be distributed differently, with more money to younger players and less money to older players

9:44	Comment From Slack Schmeinke are you less high on Nick Franklin going forward than you may have been a year ago?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: More high. Now he’s dominated Triple-A

9:46	Comment From Kiddin me? Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: oh god, the unanswerable question

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to have to say Salazar by a little bit, but I’m very open to being convinced in the other direction. In love with them both

9:47	Comment From Matty Ike Davis: Solution to Pirates’ first base woes this offseason, or just a temporary bandaid until something better comes up?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-really-available-at-first-for-the-pirates/

9:48	Comment From Chris Will the Orioles sign Ervin as well?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Still figuring on the Jays but he’ll have to reduce his demands further

9:48	Comment From Chris Should Trout be getting more from his rumored extension?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’d think seven years, and for luxury-tax reasons I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t start until 2015

9:49	Comment From Gson Who hangs up: Francisco Lindor for Javier Baez?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Who called?

9:49	Comment From Tom So what now with Morales? A Mariner, Oriole, or the field?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates if he drops his price low enough. Mariners are the alternative

9:50	Comment From flushing What Mets pitcher would be a fair return for Mariner infielder Nick Franklin: Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee or Jon Niese?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: As Dave noted yesterday, Montero would be great for the Mariners

9:50	Comment From Guest Is Ervin Santana worth 50 mill?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Over like seven years

9:51	Comment From Harvey Is Matt Moore able to take that step forward this year where he can lower his walk rate? He seems to be healthy, and control issues seem to be a problem he can solve – not something systemic.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity and strike rate are heading in the wrong directions. His contact rate last year was almost league-average. Still plenty of time for Moore to make his necessary mechanical adjustments, but he’s less likely to blossom into an ace than he was a few years back

9:53	Comment From Bill and Ted Yu Darvish seems like he has to be in for some sort of regression right? The BABIP was pretty low. The K rate was pretty high. We’re not canceling those both out just because we think the HR rate will come down are we?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: 2.83 ERA, 2.84 xFIP

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s amazing. Nobody quite like him.

9:53	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Are you looking forward to anything in particular for the coming year, or just that its soon?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: More daylight

9:53	Comment From Tim Lincecums new stache Should opening day be a national holiday?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: No, because then our traffic would suffer

9:54	Comment From Kevin Gausman When will I join Baltimore’s rotation, and how good will I be when I do?!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: By midseason the Orioles should have realized you’re one of their best starting pitchers, and you’ll probably look like a No. 2/No. 3 for the duration of the summer

9:55	Comment From clint h some recent musings have “ddiscovered” a strategy for drew /morales /cruz of waiting to sign a 1 year deal to avoid getting a QO next year. who thinks any of these players wouldnt be thrilled to get a QO again?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s like, I dont’ think Cruz was reduced to 1 year/$8 million because of the draft pick. I think he was reduced to that because teams know he isn’t good.

9:56	Comment From _David_ Do you think the potential talent drain from draft spending limits will have any real effect on the future of MLB?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Not that we’ll notice

9:57	Comment From James BA ranks Jose Abreu as the 29th best prospect for 2014. Why did he get so much money? Is his floor that low?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the best-case scenario is that he hits a lot and doesn’t contribute much elsewhere. If he has some discipline problems, he could end up as a replacement-level player. Personally, I think he’ll hit and therefore he’ll be valuable, and that ranking seems a bit low, but I understand it in that he doesn’t have the ceiling of a true superstar

9:59	Comment From Teddy what makes projection system differ so much from fans opinions on the giants? Fans see them a team with little hope at the playoffs unless a lot of thigns go right, while steamer and zips combined have them as a top 6 mlb team?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Steamer/ZiPS gives them the fifth-highest playoff odds in the NL

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: If what you assert is even true, I suspect the reason would be that fans are pretty bad at forgetting the most recent year and including information from years previous