Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/6/15

March 6, 2015

8:46	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

8:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying to chat from the FanGraphs house in Arizona. It’s loud and distracting and the internet is unreliable, but we’ll do the best we can do and exactly no more than that

8:48	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll start actually doing this in just a few minutes after the queue builds up

8:50	Comment From Eric Hey Jeff. Can you help explain: when ZiPS was added to depth charts/projections Jays moved up from 37.5 to 39.4 projected WAR but went down in projected record from 84-78 to 83-79.

8:51

Jeff Sullivan: The projections aren’t based on WAR — they’re based on BaseRuns, and that can cause a few differences depending on team interactions. There’s also a bit of random noise, and the likelihood that while it looks like they dropped a win, they dropped a few tenths of a win. It’s not really anything to worry about

8:51	Comment From Greg Which do you prefer, Cactus League or Grapefruit League?

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: Cactus League. Doesn’t everyone prefer the Cactus League?

8:52	Comment From OldManRoto Why is everyone so down on W Myers? He played CF in the minors and should be healthy this year. I predict a solid CF and a nice slash line.

8:53	Jeff Sullivan: The most recent version of Wil Myers didn’t hit and didn’t play outstanding defense in an outfield corner. People tend to remember best what just happened

8:53	Jeff Sullivan: And for whatever it’s worth, he hasn’t really played much center field since 2012

8:54	Comment From mike what would andrew mccutchen’s free agency look like if he hadn’t signed an extension?

8:54	Jeff Sullivan: two hundred fifty million dollars

8:55	Comment From FrenchTribeFan Are you also very high on the Indians ? I just saw that J Keri ranked them 5th in his Weekly 30.

8:55	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say I’m very high on the Indians, but I’m reasonably high on the Indians, and I figure they and the Tigers are basically neck and neck. I really like Cleveland’s rotation depth

8:55	Comment From DAko Why is Dan Norris not slated for the bullpen like Sanchez is if he dons make the rotation?

8:56	Jeff Sullivan: Because Norris is a real starter who needs to start, and Sanchez is a randomly-located-moving-fastball machine

8:56	Comment From lunch what percentage of the fangraphs house is drunk at any give moment? who has accumulated the most drunk above replacement (DAR)?

8:57	Jeff Sullivan: Right now it’s not even 10 in the morning, so I don’t think anyone’s drunk. But there are empties everywhere

8:57	Comment From Kris Mike Minor already hurt… Folty make the starting rotation on opening day?

8:57	Jeff Sullivan: Apparently the Braves have Eric Stults? I’m not sure when that happened.

8:57	Comment From mike everyone’s in great shape! also everyone is injured, already

8:57	Jeff Sullivan: #spring

8:58	Comment From Kirk What position do you think an octopus would be best at?

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: Catcher

8:58	Comment From Kris will the braves have more wins or home runs on the year?

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: Dingers!

8:58	Comment From Chris My whole Tuesday/Wednesday Jeff/Dave routine was thrown off this week THANKS

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry! I’m moving to Fridays so that Kiley can move to Tuesday so that Kiley can do the other stuff that he does on Fridays

8:59	Comment From Straw Man I know this is premature, but what if Darvish goes down for TJS this season? Do you expect the Rangers to start selling off pieces at the deadline (Beltre, Feliz, etc?)

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: No, they’re committed to Beltre. But without Darvish, the Rangers are a last-place team, and so they’d be open to moving a lot of their pieces

9:00	Comment From jocephus does eno perpetually walk around with a towel around his waist and beer in hand

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: He just walked by and said the Milk Stout was a bad choice.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And that was Kiley McDaniel, everybody

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: We’ve been blessed by a Kiley McDaniel guest-answer

9:03	Comment From Kirk Would you rather get tackled by Kam Chancellor or take a fastball on the arm from Aroldis Chapman?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely the fastball. Getting tackled would cause me to disintegrate

9:03	Comment From Brandon Hey Jeff, Can you rattle off a few late round AL sleepers? Pitcher or position? Also How likely is Dalton Pompey to succeed as much as we think, and is he a quality bench player?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, right, I haven’t issued a reminder in a while that I don’t deal with fantasy-baseball questions

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t played fantasy baseball in a decade so you really don’t want my advice. I don’t know how your game works

9:04	Comment From Akalhar Who ultimately wins the Pineda / Montero trade?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees by a zillion

9:05	Comment From zurzles How much of a % of a chance is there of MCab returning to pre-2014 numbers post-surgery? Likely he

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: He has a career 152 wRC+, and last year he had a 147 wRC+. You can go ahead and forget about another 192

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: A big issue with Cabrera is, even when he’s healthy, he probably has a high chance of developing a new ache/pain. So he won’t spend very much time at 100%

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Getting older is hard

9:08	Comment From Matt Are Seattle and Kansas City the only ones with pitch f/x in the spring training parks?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Surprise and Peoria

9:08	Comment From Phillies113 Who has a better year: Hunter Pence with a broken arm, or the combined Phillies outfield?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately the Giants won’t let Hunter Pence play with a broken arm so we can’t run this proposed experiment

9:09	Comment From Akalhar In 2015, team do the Baseball Gods choose to smite with injuries (ala Texas, 2014)?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Detroit feels like a strong candidate

9:09

Comment From Dustin
Was the Markakis deal THAT terrible for Atlanta? I see a ton of people rip the Braves for it — particularly in light of Nori Aoki’s deal — but I don’t see it as a particularly significant amount of money that somehow undermines the rebuilding process. Plus, they probably aim to at least put a halfway competent team on the field if you want people to buy tickets in the interim between now and 2017.

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: What do you think is the consensus opinion of the Markakis deal? No one thinks it’s a process-destroying catastrophe. It’s just a near-total waste of money. He is not a very good player, he is not about to get better, and no one’s buying tickets to see the Braves lose games because now they’re going to lose games with Nick Markakis in the outfield

9:11	Comment From Bobby Blownilla Does you’re gut say that Archie Bradley reaches his ceiling or something less?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Always something less. Especially with Bradley

9:11	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy If you couldn’t work from home would you rather live in a place you loved and work a job you didn’t like, or live in a place you didn’t like and work a job you loved?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I want to love where I live. Work just isn’t that important

9:12	Comment From Spaceghazi Coast 2 Coast Dan Haren revealed yesterday that the Marlins didn’t give him a physical when they traded for him, which made him think the Marlins didn’t really care if he played for them or not. Is this fairly common, or did the Marlins just fubar this one up?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been known to happen, but it’s far from the norm

9:12	Comment From Nate Mariners’ DJ Peterson, how long until he’s the best option at 1B in Seattle?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: A year? He’ll get some competition from Kivlehan

9:13	Comment From Robert2TheMax Jeff, Wizard Question: why did we throw the football

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Fun experiments!

9:13	Comment From Spaceghazi Coast 2 Coast No one’s still drunk from last night? What kind of frathouse are you guys running out there?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t actually seen Eno yet

9:13	Comment From Andy Will you go on the podcast more often please

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Out of my hands! Talk to Carson!

9:13	Comment From Catoblepas What projections did you find to be somewhat high or low feeling? Personally, I think the Tigers have the potential to be this years Rangers

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Was just talking to Dave about this yesterday. I think the Tigers have huge collapse potential, but I agree with the masses that the projections are low on the White Sox

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Or even if the projections aren’t low, I think it shouldn’t be too tough for the White Sox to upgrade in their obvious positions of need

9:14	Comment From Guest Should we be a bit worried about Darvish? He had an elbow problem last year and a tricep problem now. I know it is early, but his velocity was down 3mph yesterday.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: You should be more than a bit worried

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Tanaka gets all the attention for trying to defy the UCL rules, but Darvish is in a similar boat

9:15	Comment From FrenchTribeFan Who has the highest ceiling among the Blue Jays (future) rotation : Stroman – Hutchison – Sanchez – Norris

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Stroman. He’s awesome

9:16	Comment From Drew How predictive does strength of schedule actually end up being? I’m pretty sure it’s rarely very a good predictor in the NFL but I’m not familiar with the stat in baseball.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, no idea. No one studies it in baseball because no one believes it’s much of a factor. And it probably isn’t. Especially now that fewer and fewer teams are willing to be completely bad

9:17	Comment From Kirk What would be the octopus catcher’s best skill? I think it would make a pretty solid first baseman, maybe. Depending on the size of the octopus.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Good pitch-blocker. But probably really easy to run against

9:18	Comment From gilby Over under on at bats for Weeks this year?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: 249.5

9:18	Comment From Costanza Does Viciedo offer anything of value for the Jays this season?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: No. He’s bad!

9:19	Comment From FrenchTribeFan Is Swisher tradable if he’s having a good first half ? (Dan Szymborski answered me with a clear and simple “No” when I asked him…)

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Would have to be a hell of a first half

9:19

Comment From Guest
Why is the mental health aspect of baseball players seemingly so overlooked by teams? I’ve never been comfortable with the idea that you need to have a certain “baseball mindset/personality” to succeed, and I don’t think it fosters a healthy environment for players who could potentially be suffering from something along the lines of serious depression.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Teams take it more seriously than ever. it’s relatively under-explored, but all teams are increasingly open-minded, and sometimes you just don’t hear about the things that are taking place in the background

9:20	Comment From Dylan What are your predictions for the first three guys to go down with TJS? I know you don’t want it to happen, but we had 10 by this point last year.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Seems easy — Tanaka, Darvish, Collins

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Tanaka and Darvish wait. But I don’t really believe in either one of them holding up

9:21	Comment From Catoblepas Jeff, you chat way longer than anyone else, and are one of the only people attempting to chat while also cavorting in Arizona. Do you enjoy this, or are you just weird?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Both! And chatting is much easier than trying to write a post in this environment.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I deal extremely poorly with sound distractions and right now I’m six feet away from a table of people discussing fantasy baseball

9:23	Comment From 20longyears The Pirates will have the best outfield in baseball if Polanco’s slash line is…

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: …better than Marcell Ozuna’s

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: (which it will not be)

9:23	Comment From gaedel How do you like Eovaldi’s splitter?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen it since September. I like the idea and the early signs were promising. He doesn’t need it to be too fine for it to be sufficiently functional. I believe in McCann/Rothschild

9:24	Comment From mtsw Who starts at 2B for Baltimore: Schoop or Cabrera?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera

9:26	Comment From mtsw If you made 10 teams, each composed only of major league starters at each position (a team of only catchers, a team of only shortstops, etc), and then made them play a full baseball season, which team would finish in 1st? Which team would finish in last? How would the pitchers do?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Have to imagine shortstops would win pretty easily

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Trying to decide right now between first basemen and pitchers

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Feel like first basemen would finish in last

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers might finish second or third?

9:29	Comment From Kirk http://espn.go.com/mlb/ The picture on that front page article about Harvey contains some terrifying pitch face.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: No pitcher looks cool when he’s pitching

9:29	Comment From Twinkie Any chance Kennys Vargas surprises this year? Haven’t heard a peep about him compared to all the Oswaldo Arcia love, but Vargas also crushes the ball and seems to have a better track record in plate discipline (in minors)?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it just depends on your level of expectations. He can be something like an average hitter. But he didn’t dominate the minors, he wasn’t young for his levels, and his big-league debut saw a lot of chase swings. Vargas is going to have a career of staying real close to the threshold of acceptability

9:30	Comment From Catoblepas Did you see the Pedroia home run in last night’s Red Sox-Twins game? Not that the dinger itself matters, but it was a pitch on the inside half which he yanked over the LF fence. Made me think of your article, and seemed like a good sign for him.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Did not see it; is promising. Can’t really watch many videos with this lousy Arizona internet connection 🙁

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: This house is supposed to come equipped with WiFi, as you’d expect. When we showed up, we discovered there is no router anywhere

9:32	Comment From mtsw With the way these things usually play out, the Nationals win 110 games and then lose 3-1 in the NLDS to an 87-win Cardinals team or something, right?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: it’s written in the stars

9:32	Comment From kris bryant are the cubs going to play games with me past may? keep me down for more seasoning depending on how the first 4 weeks go with them? I wont like this.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: You’ll be up in a very convenient amount of time

9:33	Comment From Phillies113 Which of the FanGraphs staff is most likely to leave a live horse in Dave Appelman’s office?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: maybe Dave Appelman

9:33	Comment From _David_ What should we make of LMC’s comment that barring injury he couldn’t imagine being able to keep both SS? Are we really going to see 37 year old knee-impaired Willie Bloomquist playing SS?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Yes. You don’t want to have one of the prospects hanging out on the bench all season long

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: You’re also not going to see very much of Bloomquist at short because both Miller and Taylor appear to be durable

9:36	Comment From Uncle Jesse Compare/contrast the Twins/Ervin Santana deal to the Braves/Markasis deal?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I think the terms of the Santana deal are more acceptable. But the wrong team issued the guarantee.

9:39	Comment From Matt The best thing about spring training is seeing players you were sure retired a decade ago or thought they were playing in Japan Or I saw Jake Fox and I remember that time he hit 11 homers in ST 4 year ago.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Jake Fox is still just 32 years old

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Last year he slugged .605 in Mexico!

9:40	Comment From Jeff Fan Thanks for the rec on Salt and Straw, ordered some for the family for Christmas and had it shipped, outstanding!!!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the best. And when you order and ship, you don’t have to wait in line!

9:41	Comment From Jack Do you think the hats took into the calculation of the arb dollars saved by putting Roark into the bullpen with the scherzer signing? Or is it to little to matter?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: No, that wasn’t a consideration. This was a pure Boras/Lerner play

9:41	Comment From Guest Would you rather have the Jays/Met’s young pitching or Cubs/Twins young position players?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much always the young position players

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And I think of the two pairs, I’d prefer Mets and Cubs

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Dammit now I’m not sure. I think I’m already switching back over to Jays instead of Mets

9:43	Comment From Munenoris Espresso Stand As of today, and assuming good health from Austin Jackson, who are you guessing will be the CF for the Mariners will be in July 2015? April 2016? April 2017?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: July 2015: Austin Jackson

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: April 2016: Desmond Jennings?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, Desmond Jennings. Apply that to April 2017 as well

9:46

Comment From Catoblepas
I was thinking about upgrades/downgrades as a potential source of “error” in projections after your article. Obviously they aren’t meant to take that into account, but do we overstate how much the projections miss by, since we compare the teams at the end of the year to the (often different) teams at the beginning of the year?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, obviously projections can’t project the unprojectable, and midseason transactions change the shape of things. But on the other hand, midseason transactions are seldom that significant — you’re talking about, at the absolute max, like three more or fewer wins around a given move. Injuries are at least as much a factor

9:47	Comment From FrenchTribeFan If there is no major injuries : who won the Josh Donaldson trade ?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Jays

9:48	Comment From Zach Does the run-scoring environment in the minor leagues historically track at all with what’s happening in the major leagues? Is there a natural lag? I’m wondering if we might need to take that into account when projecting prospects…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Right now there’s a widening gap between offensive levels in Triple-A and the majors

9:48	Comment From Guest I think the Blue Jays could have problems with collapse. I mean Bautista,Encarnancion, and Reyes aren’t young and the back of that rotation could get really ugly really quickly. It seems like they could be the 2014 Red Sox with some bad luck.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately, it’s easy to see the upside and downside in every roster

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Everyone’s got promise, and everyone’s vulnerable

9:49	Comment From Tom Jerry Say one good thing about the Red Sox rotation.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: It is not a bad rotation

9:50	Comment From Bobo ZiPS shows Zunino having a significant drop in ISO. Why?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS remembers 2013

9:50	Comment From Costanza Will you guys be staying in Arizona, or will you make your way to Florida at some point as well?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No Florida

9:50	Comment From DC Who is this year’s Corey Kluber?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Corey Kluber

9:50	Comment From Chris Over/Under 8.5 WAR for Trout

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Under

9:50	Comment From Catoblepas Can you give us the roster of who is at the house?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Almost like 20 people. Swydan had something come up at the last minute, and Petriello has been blocked by the weather

9:51	Comment From Kirk Would you rather have the hypothetical octopus catcher or Rob Johnson as the Mariners catcher, this year?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: hypothetical octopus

9:51	Comment From DC Do you believe in Brian Dozier? Or do you think pitchers will just stop giving him pitches he can pull.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve tried. Dozier will just keep on taking advantage of mistakes. He’s sufficiently disciplined to stay away from the pitches he can’t handle. Clear vulnerabilities, but pitchers can’t live in one spot without leaking to the sides

9:53	Comment From _David_ Has anyone studied or found a difference in the way teams perform in the first game after travel, vs. the other games in a series?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of anything off the top of my head, but then it feels like the sort of thing that would’ve been studied at some point. Pretty simple Retrosheet project. Maybe a Baseball Prospectus thing like a dozen years ago

9:54

Comment From Bret
After the Anthony Gose-Devon Travis swap, a few articles on FanGraphs talked about Travis’ nice Steamer projection, and how it looked the Jays picked up something close to a league average 2B. Ever since then, it seems like everytime I look at Travis’ projection, the numbers look worse and worse, and now he doesn’t project very good at all. What’s changing?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS is a little lower on him. But he’s still projected for a 90 wRC+ on our depth charts

9:55	Comment From Bomok is it just me, or does every team in the AL expect to compete for division title? (maybe not the Twins or Astros)

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: not the Twins, not the Astros, and not the Rangers

9:55	Comment From HappyFunBall Didn’t someone write a NotGraphs where they ran a simulation of a team of all Adam Dunns vs. a team of all pitchers vs. a team of all Juan Pierre’s or something similar? Where are the archive monkeys?!?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: One of the best things ever published http://www.fangraphs.com/no…

9:56

Comment From Josh
Are you a Carlos Martinez – Starting Pitcher fan or skeptic? As your recent piece showed, he has the potential stuff, and a reports from yesterday’s start said he had a great change. However, he is a small guy with a slight built and has never pitch anything close to a full season’s worth of starter innings in his career. So, Carlos has a _____ year as an SP this season?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Decent. The stuff will carry him but I figure he’ll have trouble getting through sixth innings. It would be hard to ever see him as durable. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cardinals traded for a starter around midseason as they prepare for Martinez to wind down

9:57	Comment From FrenchTribeFan I don’t know how to understand defensive metrics : what do you look at first, in order to have a global idea of the players defensive value ?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: UZR and DRS so I can mentally average them. Go from there

9:58	Comment From HappyFunBall Not a prospects guy myself, and with the lower article rate on Fridays anyway I welcome your move with open arms. It makes FanGraphs a better place on it’s slow day!

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of chatting on Fridays because then I’m in complete control of when my workweek ends!

9:59	Comment From mtsw Does Josh Hamilton get suspended if he’s hitting 40 HR a season? His situation reminds me of the A-Rod suspension, where the league seems to be abusing their punishment discretion to save a franchise from paying out a year of an awful contract at full value.

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: We don’t even know what’s going to happen yet. Hamilton went to *them*. They’re trying to figure out the fair treatment. Of course, the Angels might have a bit of an agenda, but the Angels aren’t in control of what’s going to be the decision

10:00

Comment From Akalhar

Cliff Lee looks cool when he is pitching.