Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/14/17

April 14, 2017

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:08	Daniel: How can I learn to be as handsome as you?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Silence those that find you not handsome

9:09	Pretty Tony: On the Tigers broadcast the other day they said Verlander has gone 20+ starts without giving up more than 3 runs. And the only other pitcher in the majors to also have that streak going? Daniel Norris?! I had to go check because it seemed so unbelievable!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This seems like a good time to run a quick check using the Baseball-Reference streak finder!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: In the past decade, the longest such streak belongs to Jake Arrieta, at 29 starts

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Clayton Kershaw’s in second, at 24

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where they got those numbers. Verlander allowed five runs last August 16, and Norris allowed four runs September 18

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I suppose they’re talking about earned runs!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: There we go. There’s the magic

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Indeed, story checks out

9:13

JTT: Jeff, why does it seem like we never see good players post flukey BABIP based years? If Danny Santana or Chris Johnson can BABIP .400 for an entire season, in theory it should be just as likely to have Miguel cabrera or Votto or Mike Trout to get lucky and BABIP like .450. If a bad hitter like Chris Johnson can luck his way into a .321 BA one year, why can’t an actual good hitter luck his way into a .400 BA

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: David Wright had a .394 BABIP in 2009. Josh Hamilton was at .390 in 2010. Jorge Posada somehow finished a year at .389. It happens

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I think you run into two issues, though. One, there’s only so much space for batted balls to find, so getting additional hits becomes harder and harder. And two, when elite hitters make their best contact, oftentimes that contact results in a homer, which BABIP ignores

9:16	Joel: Let’s say SEA finishes 77-85 or something similarly underwhelming. Is it time for Dipoto to put the U.S.S. Mariner in dry dock, and re-build her? If so, what would that look like?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Well, there’s the problem: It’s not an easy rebuild. The Mariners don’t have, like, a Manny Machado they could conceivably sell

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: There are some parallels between the Mariners’ situation and the Tigers’ situation. You’re not getting out from under Felix’s deal. You’re not getting out from under Cano’s deal. To say nothing of how the expensive players would likely have to perform for the Mariners to finish sub-.500

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: You can try to flip individual pieces like the Tigers did with Price and Cespedes, but I don’t think the Mariners have a Price or Cespedes

9:19	seth: will the Reds win 100 or 110 games this year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: They won 16 games in spring training, so they have a very, very slim shot at 100!

9:21	Bork: So uh..how bout them Jays?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: That was already going to be a tough division top to bottom. They’re already 3.5 games back of the team in fourth place.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing at this point counts as devastating, and even losing Josh Donaldson for a couple weeks does something short of devastate, but if this doesn’t turn around in a hurry, they’re screwed

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: “It’s early” works when you’re 1-3. It doesn’t work when you’re 1-20. Somewhere in between, there’s a red line

9:23	Zonk: Statistically, the best pitching staff in the NL is the Reds. Wait, what? Explain this, Jeff!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: By WAR, it’s the Rockies!

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball!

9:25	DN: Loved the Mets game last night. Hate the proposal to change extra innings. What are your thoughts on it?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like it, and I also don’t think it’s going to happen. I don’t see compelling reason to believe it would even result in shorter games. Just higher-scoring games

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, teams enter extra innings tied. Under the proposal, teams would still enter extra innings tied. Maybe increasing run probability slightly decreases the likelihood of a tie sustaining, but I doubt the effect would be dramatic

9:26	botchatheny: this is great. isn’t this great? Alex @alexcards79 14 Apr 2017

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It is very great

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe less so for Tommy Pham

9:27	Another Bad Dynasty Manager: I know it’s just April, but when should the Jays start panicking?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: The Jays should never panic. To panic is to be unproductive. The fans, however, would be free to initiate a panic sequence. And the front office should start having some tough conversations

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: As soon as the Leafs are eliminated, there won’t be any escaping this

9:29	Steve: Pretending the Blue Jays can’t get it together and Donaldson becomes available, what kind of return do you imagine he gets?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Something vaguely David Price-y. Will obviously depend on how his leg holds up. Unlike Price, Donaldson couldn’t be leveraged in the playoffs. But Donaldson is also one of the best players around. He’s just in his 30s, and no longer cheap, so the Jays wouldn’t get the haul you might think

9:31	Jaime: Will Mike Trout be the first player this season to hit 2 WAR? What about 3? 4?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: His odds increase as you up the WAR threshold. I’ll say the tipping point is…5 WAR? I think the chances are greater than 50% that Trout is first to 5 WAR

9:33	Mike: What stats are there than point to the brutal start that Greg Bird is off to? It can’t be entirely lingering injury/illness related…

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Hurt his ankle at the end of spring training, and then he started throwing up. He’s batted 22 times. Have some patience here

9:33	Joel: Who finishes w/ a better record this year? TOR or SEA?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say the Jays

9:34	CamdenWarehouse: During a game the other night, an announcer called a play with “And there’s a McDouble play brought to you by McDonalds.” I propose that MLB be forced to chose between eliminating this sort of thing or reducing commercial breaks.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, that is very bad

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Does McDonald’s really need to advertise to increase its visibility?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Is anyone unaware of McDonald’s?

9:36	Mario & Luigi: Has Mike’s Leake been fixed?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: You mean the thing that led him last year to his highest career ERA? Sure, I can buy that. But if you mean the thing that made him Mike Leake in the first place? No, he’s still Mike Leake

9:37	Seven Costanza: Joey Votto leading baseball in Contact% and zSwing% still. What a weird world we live in.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s done this before, but not for very long. Clear intentional change, although I’d assume this will be temporary

9:38	Randal Savage: Fix the Blue Jays in one or two sentences!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Poison their rivals

9:39	Q-Ball: I wonder if Albert Almora should play every day. He’s stupid good in CF, and I would like to see if the bat holds up in full time duty. What do you think?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see Almora play more, but not yet on an everyday basis. I like what the Cubs have going on with their flexibility and opportunities for rest

9:40	Buck: It seems like I’m seeing a lot more exclamation points in baseball articles than I used to. For some reason, I want to blame you for starting that trend. Fair?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take it!

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But I’m sure I was inspired by somebody else

9:40	Roadhog: When Gray is back, do the A’s have a top-10, top-5, or top-3 starting rotation? Graveman/Manaea/Gray/Cotton/Triggs is pretty killer.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Well, let’s wait to see if Gray actually pitches good baseballs, first

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But on potential, there’s so much upside here. It’s why I’ve supported the A’s as a dark-horse playoff contender

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t hurt to have an arm like Hahn’s floating around as insurance, too

9:41	Randal Savage: Could the Blue Jay’s beat the Cleveland Browns?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Yes at baseball, no at football, no at basketball, yes at hockey, don’t know? at squash

9:42	Old timer: The A’s are 5-5; better than I expected. Gray is seemingly on his way back sooner rather than later. Will the A’s be relevant in the division and do you see any shot at a wild card? Thanks.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: To repeat above: yes

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t see them being a good team, but I can see them being at least an average team, which is good enough to hang around

9:43	$18M mistake: Are we finally seeing the decline of Jose Bautista or is it still APRIL?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Couldn’t it be both?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It is mos definitely still April

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Months have many days in them

9:43	Jeffrey: How many teams that are currently winning their division will actually win it?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say one, if the Astros count. (they’re tied)

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: On this date a year ago, the White Sox were 7-2 🙁

9:45	JTT: It’s early in the year so there’s no hard evidence so far, but Nick castellanos swing looks totally different. Has a much more pronounced uppercut. He’s a guy to keep an eye on. Supposedly Andrew romine revamped his swing as well…..but he’s also Andrew romine

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Castellanos was already an extreme fly-ball guy. Not much room to go more extreme, unless he were to go the full Ryan Schimpf. I’ll take a closer look sometime next week to see if I notice anything

9:47	Sirras: A major league baseball team offers a sum of money for you to play catcher for an entire game. You will field and hit and call the game. What is the smallest sum for which you’d accept? For which you’d accept if you knew you’d do it for 16 innings as Travis d’Arnaud did last night?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: What’s the price for four of the most miserable hours of my life, that would chase me for years?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: One million dollars

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I will do it for one million dollars

9:48	Hunky Dory: I would like you to know that I speak for the vast majority of people when I say that trampolines are fun and I have never suffered an injury due to one. Your contempt for trampolines is being confirmed by selection bias and nothing more.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You are wrong and your opinion is bad

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Trampolines seize upon hubris

9:48	Steve: Is it more annoying when chatters ask straight up fantasy baseball questions or when they try to disguise it?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Straight up. If they disguise them, then I can provide a baseball answer, which is why we’re all here in the first place

9:49	Maddux in a Row: How long would Josh Tomlin have to struggle before he lost his rotation spot?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Not long

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Tomlin has a career 117 ERA- and 112 FIP-. He doesn’t deserve a long leash

9:51	Matt: Yanks have been great since Bird and Sanchez were out of the lineup. Coincidence?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, extremely

9:51	Josh: Should we be concerned with the slow start for Mookie Betts?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. He’s way too good, and lately he’s been way too sick

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I know he wasn’t great in September, either, but he’s one of those guys with too much talent to get worried about a few weeks

9:52	ManBearPuig: Who on the fangraphs staff has the best hair?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: All of our hair is terrible

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: We are stay-at-home baseball bloggers

9:53	Baseball Randy: Is Carlos Gomez good again?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Picking up where he left off. Since he joined the Rangers, he’s been strikeout and fly-ball prone, to extreme degrees. I don’t think Gomez is ever getting back to his peak level, since that just doesn’t happen, but I buy him as an interesting and high-volatility CF

9:54	Matt: Any thoughts on starting baseball in May in order to remove all the meaningless small sample overreactions of April?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: It’s flawless!

9:54	Andrew: Who is going to end up closing in Texas?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Easy answer is Bush, but so far I really like Leclerc

9:54	Padres: We might be only terrible instead of putrid! MARGOOOOOOOTT

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of interesting position players there. And Hedges hasn’t even done anything

9:55	ChiSox2020: White Sox bullpen seems to have some valuable trade chips no?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: One highly valuable one

9:55	Jaime: Which players/teams have your expectations of for the ROS changed the most?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: No team, really, although the M’s and Jays are in awful situations. But as players go, Kendall Graveman!!

9:56	Josh: Are we finally seeing the decline of Nelson Cruz?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Considering how he looked in the WBC, I wouldn’t say that yet

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I know the WBC isn’t the same as big-league baseball, but it’s not like his skills have evaporated in a matter of weeks

9:57	Matt: if i was to road trip from Northern NJ to Dallas, do you have any tips for a long solo road trip?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately that drive would be of limited geological interest

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: So you’re going to need to lean hard on podcasts or audiobooks

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: But take advantage of the opportunity — stop and do things in places you’ll never choose to go to again

9:58	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: If someone bought you a Chone Figgins Mariners jersey and two tickets behind home plate for a game, would you wear it when you go?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Sure. Irony’s still hip

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Do people still say hip?

9:58	Petey Bienel: Were the Nationals a little arrogant in thinking their bullpen only needed a Blanton for Melancon swap to be all set?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they got Melancon midseason, right? They can get another guy midseason if they need

9:59	Ampersand: Can you say any words about Amir Garrett?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He has become almost interesting enough for me to write a post about him

9:59	Travis: Freddie Freeman’s striking out a lot. Something to keep an eye on? Obviously it’s extremely early, but it’s continuing a downward trend.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: He also has a 181 wRC+