Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/30/13

April 30, 2013

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I’m the least late I’ve been in months!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Reminder #1: I am not a fantasy baseball expert

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Reminder #2: I am not a baseball expert

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Remember #3: There are hundreds, if not thousands of questions submitted in the queue over the course of a chat, so I have no prayer of keeping up.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Now we begin with the baseball chat!

9:03	Comment From BlueJaysFan1 omg help. say something nice. do something helppppp!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Only a half-game back of the Angels

9:03	Comment From AAJT Will Jeff be on time? That is the question.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: lol

9:03	Comment From Guest What was it about SB Nation’s new format/policies that made you and Matt decide it was time to hang ’em up?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, it’s Matthew

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Second of all, we expressed everything there was to express. I don’t know why people think we were misleading the audience. We explained why we booked it

9:04	Comment From Jason Is Kyle Seager quietly turning into what people thought Dustin Ackley would be and vice versa?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Not exactly — Ackley was supposed to be an OBP machine with limited power — but it is most curious that Seager is the guy on the fringes of starhood while Ackley is still trying to figure out how to swing

9:05	Comment From The other Kyle Jeff Locke will finish the season as a top ____ pitcher?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: 120

9:05	Comment From The other Kyle Tony Cingrani will finish the season as a top ____ pitcher?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: 90

9:06	Comment From Django Who is the best pitcher in baseball?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It was Justin Verlander before the season, and I don’t yet have reason to change my mind about that, although it’s obviously a close race

9:06	Comment From RotoLando Content! Content! Content!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Glad to see you’re content

9:06	Comment From Larry What will regress more for Jordan Zimmerman: His K-rate up, or his ERA up? They seem to be in conflict right now.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: His ERA will go up more than his strikeout rate, but Zimmermann is an interesting one to examine. His grounders are way up this season — could be something to the Nationals trying to extend their pitchers by reducing strikeouts

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Or could be nothing. Zimmermann’s rate of contact allowed is up four percentage points from his career average despite no apparent downtick in stuff

9:09	Comment From Jeff in T.O. Sens & Habs, who you got?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sens in 6

9:09	Comment From Thomas I hate seeing a young star like Stanton get hurt, but is it ok to celebrate it as karmic retribution against Jeffrey Loria?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, because it’s bad for Stanton, too. I think the thing to celebrate will be the Marlins’ non-existent attendance. Stanton doesn’t really make a difference to the Marlins right now, since they completely suck

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Put another way: how does it affect Loria to have Stanton DL’d?

9:10	Comment From Nicky Think Stanton’s injury affects his trade status at all?

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Injuries kind of seem to be a part of the package with Stanton. I don’t think he’s getting dealt midseason, and I think at year’s end, provided Stanton hasn’t missed the majority of the season, he’s still going to drive an absurd market. This will just be a reminder that Stanton probably isn’t going to give his next team 160 games a year

9:11	Comment From Dave M. Better throwing arm – Johnny Damon or Tim Tebow?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Having never seen Tim Tebow throw, Tim Tebow

9:12	Comment From Jason Will any teams be joining the 2008 Mariners as a $100M, 100-loss club this year?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:13	Comment From Len Sakata Jeff, if you were involved in a game of sorts that used real stats for MLB players organized on hypothetical teams created by you and your friends, would you trade … ahh nm, I’ll just tweet Eno. Thanks.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I like you

9:13	Comment From Monty What’s your opinion on the Mariners so far. Seems like their offense isn’t quite as bad as it used to be.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Which is kind of the whole point of this year’s Mariners. They’re mediocre in a different way from how they’ve been mediocre in the past and they aren’t finishing at .500 and the front office isn’t all keeping their jobs

9:14	Comment From Len Sakata Where would the Marlins Minus Giancarlo finish in the PCL?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: First or second, probably, but it’s be a challenge every day

9:14	Comment From Hieronymous What’s the advantage of pitching from the windup? It seems to me most pitchers would benefit from just focusing on the stretch, rather than trying to maintain two distinct pitching mechanics.

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers are trained in the windup, so that’s what’s most familiar to them. That’s how they know best their timing and their balance. When you’re in the stretch, it’s easy to get hurried up and lose your timing, and when you’re off by even a fraction of a second everything can go to hell. I don’t think there are pitchers in the bigs who just flat-out suck from the stretch — everybody ends up trained in both — but it does seem like something of an inefficiency

9:16	Comment From Bob Loblaw So arguably Josh Hamilton now owns one of the best (the 4 HR 18 TB game in Baltimore) and the worst (9 PA, 3 K, 8 swinging strikes) games in baseball history, right?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Josh Hamilton in a nutshell

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Year 1 of that contract btw

9:17	Comment From Jason Please rate the coolness factor of the same 2 teams having the Cy Young winners but both pitchers being different.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t get it

9:17	Comment From AAJT Volcano expert?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Reasonably educated volcano fan

9:18	Comment From Daniel Carroll At what point does defensive efficiency (BABIP against) become a thing worth talking about? Does it normalize fairly quickly? Of course there will be variation depending on which fielders are playing.

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: While there’s no specific point, I usually start paying some attention to team defensive numbers after about a month (so, now!). Still plenty of room for fluctuation and you have to keep an eye on who’s been playing where and who’s been hurt, but on the team level, samples build quickly

9:19	Comment From Guest Are you starting Quintana, Jose (CHA) tonight against Yu?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I can tell you with absolute certainty that no I am not

9:20	Comment From Mark Imagine if were a woman. You’d be always “honey I’m late” and the guy would die a little every time.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: One day I’m going to start seven minutes early

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Or like 47 minutes early, to make up for all the past tardiness

9:20	Comment From jeff do you think middlebrooks is just off to a slow start or are the fears about his strikeout problem begun to manifest>

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than this, but he’s clearly exploitable, and the BB/K issues aren’t going away

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So, both?

9:22	Comment From Lance The umpire hit Zach Britton with a ball in last night’s O’s/Mariners game. Pretty sure that helped the M’s offense “explode” and further win the game. They weren’t supposed to win, right? The M’s don’t win games!

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The M’s win plenty of games. Even last year’s Astros won plenty of games!

9:22	Comment From Guest Any chance that Carlos Triunfel will see playing time at SS?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Not much of it

9:22	Comment From Gila Monster I know you hate fantasy questions.. But is Adam Dunn or anyone for that matter even worth the start against Yu Darvish? Or is V. Wells v. Houston a better start.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: So you’re asking me about a bad hitter vs. a superstar pitcher and a slightly less bad hitter against a team that can’t pitch

9:23	Comment From Jake So Montero, Smoak and maybe Ackley are busts, and Choo, Fister and Cabrerra flourish once they leave Seattle. What’s responsible? Poor player development? Poor talent evaluation? The ballpark? Bad luck?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: a little of A, a little of D. We don’t know what Choo and Cabrera would’ve done in Seattle, and Fister was getting better when he got dealt. Montero/Smoak/Ackley were highly rated by everyone so it’s not like the Mariners just missed the boat on those guys

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: People badly want for there to be something systemic that’s the matter. Could be as simple as Smoak doesn’t have power and Montero doesn’t have an eye

9:25	Comment From Christian More surprising: The A’s Angels game went 19 innings, or the Angels bullpen only gave up 1 run between the 10th and 18th innings?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: a shame about the 8th and the 9th and the 19th innings

9:27	Comment From jeff legitimate concern for victor martinez? he has looked awful.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I like that his discipline is basically intact and he’s been getting under the ball a lot more than he used to. I’m going to allow him a slow start, considering, and look for a lot of improvement in May. If that doesn’t come then that’ll be a problem

9:28	Comment From Len Sakata What meaningful conclusions do you, non-baseball expert, draw after one month of play? How do you distinguish predictive trends from SSS/noise trends?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: I handle everything — everything — on a case-by-case basis. Hard to explain in a chat on the fly, but if I identify something I didn’t expect, I’ll look for reasons for why it might be and I treat everything with skepticism until I have reason to believe in an actual change. Even when I spot something I think might be real, that doesn’t mean it is. Usually, baseball stays just about the same

9:31	Comment From Mark Justin Verlander is an 8 NERD pitcher? Is he so low because Yu Darvish has all the NERD?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, that works

9:31	Comment From F U Jobu Smyly over Porcello? who do you like?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I like Smyly more

9:31	Comment From Johnny Slick How for real is Hisashi Iwakuma, on a scale of 1 to 10?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Hisashi Iwakuma is real, so in that sense, 10

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: He strikes me as a real good No. 3 and a half-decent No. 2 and I couldn’t be happier with him

9:33	Comment From Mike Who’s the better player overall: Justin Upton or Jason Heyward?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Before the year I would’ve said Heyward, but now there’s plenty of reason to believe that Upton is back on track so I’m leaning in his direction. But it’s closer than it probably seems like it is considering how the’yve started

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: don’t forget that Upton is +1 appendix

9:33	Comment From Guest Mark Trumbo hit the longest home run of the season so far. I think he put it in the bay… in oakland

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: 120 miles per hour off the bat!

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody watch! http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26704051&topic_id=10025018&c_id=mlb

9:35	Comment From jeff how do you think the twins outfield is going to shake out the rest of the year? arcia has looked better than hicks but he’s not exactly a centerfielder.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be surprised if Arcia sticks around

9:36	Comment From Bart Will Mike Carp see more playing time with the Red Sox being that he’s been hitting very well when he gets a chance to play?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Not really much in the way of room, and also he is not very good despite these 24 plate appearances

9:37	Comment From Izzy How highly will Matt Harvey finish in the Cy Young voting?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with fourth?

9:37	Comment From njpozner Speaking of Ackley, why were scouts (allegedly) so convinced that he would never be a decent defensive 2nd baseman? Was this some kind of echo chamber where one guy said and then it got repeated over and over?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Part the second thing, part Ackley taking real strides forward after arriving at the position. Also part people not being particularly good at evaluating defense. I think it’s hard for a prospect to shed a reputation once he has it

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: even today people still ask me if Ackley can handle second

9:38	Comment From jeff who do you think has a better chance of getting their mojo back? weaver or dunn?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: My head says Dunn, since his change is more deliberate. He can make himself be patient again if he wants to. Weaver can’t make himself throw the baseball faster

9:39	Comment From Shark Mapiro Ubaldo’s good start last night: aberration, or aberration that gets up Indians fans’ hopes before letting us down in 5 days?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Without question the second one

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: From 6/5/12 – 7/7/12, Jimenez allowed 15 runs in 46 innings!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: the rest of the year his ERA was nearly 7!

9:42	Comment From Andrew What is your take, provided you have one, on Heyward’s estimated recovery time of late May? To me, odd he even gave one.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing somebody asked when he wants to be back, and Heyward just gave an answer since it seemed like the thing to do. This is up in the air but Heyward probably isn’t far off in his estimate

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Oh crap I forgot my display name

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Ahhh there we are

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Jeff Sullivan, baseball authority!

9:44	Comment From _David_ Does the NBA’s decision not to relocate the Kings hurt the Mariners’ ability to make money from Root Sports?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t help, but I don’t think the Mariners’ plan is contingent on getting a basketball team in the near future. Remember that these negotiations began years ago

9:45	Comment From zack What is your take on all the finger pointing in the Dylan Bundy saga? It seems a little ridiculous given the fact that a) Bundy’s a pitcher b) pitchers get hurt and c) no one knows why.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’m unaware of finger-pointing but my sense is, yeah, this crap happens, and nobody knows how a young pitcher is supposed to be handled

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: At least not with a high degree of certainty

9:46	Comment From Tim So with Haren being done, Detwiler being mediocre as always, and Gio and Strasburg disappointing thus far, is the Nats rotation not as good as we thought?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Well, Haren’s velocity is up and his K/BB is about normal, so I’m not ready to say that he’s finished. But relative to what we would’ve expected before the season, I think it’s safe to knock the Nationals down a peg, based on the observations. They are very good — they are not elite, at the moment

9:48	Comment From Guest If Jack Z in Seattle were to get fired, do you have any idea on who might possible Mariners GM candidates?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: No. Not worth speculating right now.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: No one has any idea what kind of GM the Mariners would look for. No one has any idea who would even be doing the hiring

9:49	Comment From Dan Who leads MLB in K this year, Darvish or Scherzer? I bet they both strikeout 300!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Darvish

9:50

Comment From the human rain delay
people talk a lot about pitchers’ ages, but shouldn’t innings pitched be at least as important– for example, madison bumgarner is younger than matt harvey, but he’s pitched a lot more professional innings, so doesn’t it stand to reason (other health issues being equal) that harvey should have more good innings left in his arm?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: What about Matt Harvey’s amateur innings? Do those not count? I’ll grant that maybe they’re not as stressful as professional innings, but they aren’t nothing.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Age matters because of how bodies develop. Of course, what’s true generally isn’t always true specifically, and we don’t know how Bumgarner and Harvey, specifically, are constructed. Pitchers are really annoying in this way

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Between Bumgarner and Harvey, the pitcher more likely to last longer is: I have absolutely no idea, and neither does anyone else. You can make arguments for both sides but there’s no proof of anything, at least not to which we have access

9:52	Comment From Django True or false: The amount of innings you pitch is meaningless in terms of injury, etc. The amount of pitches you throw is what matters.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Pitches seem like they should matter more, but innings aren’t meaningless, because innings are correlated to pitches. It’s like saying “wins” are meaningless. No they’re not. Wins are strongly correlated with effectiveness. We just have other numbers that are a lot better

9:53	Comment From Bradstick Be honest, at any point in the offseason, were you disappointed the Mariners didn’t land Josh Hamilton?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, a little, but I’m a fan who’s driven by emotion and a desire for short-term excitement

9:53	Comment From Denver Omelette After 23 games, ZiPS suddenly loves Yuniseky Betancourt, to the tune of a .438 RoS SLG, a number he has never approached in any full season. Is he doing something different? Is his home park that favorable? Has the world gone mad?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: ZiPS ROS projects a .173 ISO. Two years ago, with the Royals, Betancourt posted a .172 ISO

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: More importantly, ZiPS ROS projects a 0.0 WAR

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: There’s no change. Yuni is Yuni. Sometimes this happens

9:56	Comment From Scott Would it be crazy to say Garrett Richards will be the Angels second best starter ROS?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t have you committed

9:56	Comment From _David_ If Geoff Baker really does a podcast with you, could it possibly not be awkward?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Geoff and I have had a number of regular, cordial conversations. It’s not like there’s some blood feud. We’re people who write about baseball.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The part where he’d be shirtless would be awkward

9:57	Comment From Guest Caps-Rangers prediction?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Rangers in 7

9:58	Comment From Andrew Is Jason Heyward soft? Saying late May for an appendectomy..Holliday and Dunn took like a week and a half.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Jason Heyward had somebody open his stomach and remove an organ from it

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: And every surgery is different. Give Heyward a break

9:59	Comment From Ed First manager fired this year? Mike Scioscia?