Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/29/15

May 29, 2015

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Boy! It’s a chat

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: And you’re invited!

9:15	Comment From Trader Joe Is Strasburg broken or a good buy low opportunity?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: While I recognize this as a fantasy question, it’s also a real-baseball question, so I’ll let it slide. The stuff is there. There’s no clearly obvious indication of injury, and the Nationals do have some depth to use if they were more genuinely concerned. I think what we’re seeing is mechanical, and I think Strasburg straightens it out. Look for a far, far better second half

9:18	Comment From Jeff A lot of people probably expected more out of Phil Hughes this year, just based off what he did last season. Safe to assume he won’t return to last years form? Ks are down, and HR/FB % has doubled from last year. Time to drop, and move on?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He is still doing the same thing in one way: he’s getting ahead in the count crazy often. He’s pounding the zone with strikes, like never before, save for 2014

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: So with that in mind, Hughes hasn’t lost all of his adjustments he made a season ago. But he pretty clearly peaked in his first year with the Twins and, for good measure, now he’s down one tick on his fastball. Expect better numbers ahead, like fewer home runs, but he’s not getting back to 2014 all the way

9:19	Comment From Phillies113 True or False: The best team in the AL would only be a wild card contender in the NL.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: True

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Well, sort of. I think the best team in the AL is worse than the Pirates, but not by a ton

9:21	Comment From Chris H Hi Jeff – after such an impressive debut performance last night – do you think that Eduardo Rodriguez supplants Joe Kelly in the BoSox rotation?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t have to be Kelly. Could be Wright/Masterson. We all, I think, had a sense that Rodriguez was close to breaking in. He’s good enough to do it, and he’s got options

9:23	Comment From Jeff What’s up with Jose Quintana, once a reliable 4-5 starter, now basically only relevant as a streaming option. K/9 is on par with his career average, and his FIP is a lot lower then what his ERA is. Expect him to bounce back?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: He’s fine. He’s himself. We’re all ourselves!

9:23	Comment From Catoblepas Rick Porcello: more strikeouts, and more fly balls/home runs. Blip, or trend?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: He’s throwing more four-seamers at the expense of his sinker, and he’s throwing both his four-seamers and his two-seamers a little higher than he used to. I think that explains both observations well enough

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Some guys, you might not want to teach to elevate. Not everyone has a fastball good enough to play up.

9:25	Comment From Catoblepas By how big a margin is Jung-Ho Kang going to be the best offseason signing? He’s wonderful

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I’m so thrilled by this. I was all over the Kang bandwagon, and I figured teams were being a little too nervous about a first-ever KBO import. Which is not to say I’m some kind of future-seeing mystic. It’s just, I really wanted to believe in Kang’s ability to play in the States, and here he is and he’s kind of like Brandon Crawford

9:27	Comment From Tony What is David Dahl’s long-term outlook? Relatively unaffected by his scary injury or is it going to be tough for him to ever fully recover?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I’m no medical expert, and I’m certainly no extremely close friend of David Dahl, so I can only guess here, but I presume he’ll be ok in the long run, and he’ll wear some sort of protective device to prevent re-injury or aggravation

9:28	Comment From SomeGuy Hi Jeff! Please help me understand something! Panda currently has 0.3 WAR, but his Off is -0.9 and his Def is -1.9. How can he have a positive WAR if he’s contributed negatively on offense and defense?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Off and Def compare performance to average, while WAR compares performance to replacement-level. Average is better than replacement-level!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Of some use: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

9:30	Comment From Zach Is there any remaining reason to have hope for Dustin Ackley? I mean, he’s mostly awful, and then he does something like hit an opposite-field homer off Corey Kluber.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The only answer, I think, is Mike Moustakas

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Three and a half years of underperforming, and then all of a sudden, it’s clicked. Moustakas is finally building upon all the hype, and it took an extended period of work and introspection

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately, most disappointing players don’t figure it out like Moustakas has. And it seems like Ackley might let his own head get in the way. It is easy to forget that just last season, he was an average player, so that’s not bad, but mostly Ackley is dreadful and if he’s not traded soon, he’s a candidate to be designated come winter

9:32	Comment From baconbaconbacon Why are HRs excluded from BABIP?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not technically a “ball in play” and they have nothing to do with the defense

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But some people prefer to consider, say, wOBA on contact. Different approaches can tell you different things

9:33	Comment From Alex Jung Ho Kang seems real, but how real?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Last I checked, he had baseball’s lowest rate of hitting to the opposite field. So it remains to be seen how that might be exploited, if it’s exploited. The league’s still learning what his tendencies are, and he mostly just pulls the ball somewhere

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I think you can see that in his swing

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But you know what? Brian Dozier’s still hitting

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: So right now, it’s advantage: Kang

9:36

Comment From Bret
Great read on the Pirates at JABO. I was actually just thinking about that last night, but really just focused on Cervelli and Kang. It’s a fantastic offseason when you look at the whole list. On the flip side, how do you rate the Blue Jays offseason a few months in? Their two big pickups, Martin and Donaldson, look like great deals early even at the prices they paid, but, well, doing little else has been a problem.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately, it’s really hard to evaluate the Blue Jays’ offseason given that they had the devastating Stroman news. No reason to think he was going to get hurt; good reason to think he was going to be their best pitcher. With a healthy Stroman, the picture looks very different

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: With that said, there were some clear issues unaddressed — didn’t do enough to accumulate rotation depth, didn’t do enough to accumulate bullpen depth. Maybe, with Stroman healthy, Sanchez stays a dynamite reliever. You want to say they got bad luck with Michael Saunders, and that’s true, but he also has a history of missing time…

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The Devon Travis trade was excellent

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe it’s this simple: imagine a healthy Stroman and a R.A. Dickey who doesn’t seemingly collapse. Then you could have the Jays in first place

9:39	Comment From John Would the Diamondbacks trade David Peralta for a top 100 prospect?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how top-100 we’re talking, but there’s no real incentive for them to move him

9:41	Comment From Kermit the Fruge Did Felix pitch better than Chris Archer during his shutout two days ago?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Archer was brilliant

9:42	Comment From hscer Harper is hitting in Cincinnati today against a pitcher who has allowed a career .298/.376/.485 vs. left-handers. Should we be afraid, very afraid?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: You could’ve stopped after five words

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: since breaking into the majors: DeSclafani against righties: 2.77 FIP DeSclafani against lefties: 5.00 FIP

9:43	Comment From Reginald Denton III Hey Jeff! DeSclafani was really good early on, but then cooled off. What do you seem him doing the rest of the season?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Getting righties out

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Changeup isn’t there yet. I like what he does with his fastballs, on both sides of the plate, but he needs something else

9:45

Comment From mtsw
Add E-Rod to the list of pitchers who left the Orioles’ system and dramatically improved. Meanwhile the supposed top flight pitchers the O’s have all are in serious trouble (injuries for Hunter Harvey and Bundy, lack of a breaking ball for Gausman). This has been happening forever. Is this just a run of terrible luck or do the O’s need to overhaul how they think about pitching prospects?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, you might be able to admire what the Orioles organization does for position players. Pluses and minuses

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I think, for one thing, it’s easy to exaggerate the significance of a small number of players. Noise and randomness alone can take down a handful of top prospects, and the book’s not closed on any of those guys. At the same time, the issues for Rodriguez were somewhat based on instruction, and it’s not a coincidence he got better as soon as he arrived with the Sox

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Orioles could stand to be better about how they develop their pitchers. I don’t, however, have the solution, nor can I be absolutely sure they’re not just being punished by bad luck. As long as they can find pieces like Pearce and Paredes, though, there are balances here

9:48	Comment From Desparate in Cincinnati Is Cingranni better served in the bullpen or should he be starting?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think he could be an awesome reliever, but given where the Reds are headed, I’d want to give him more of a shot at starting first. I can’t imagine there’d be much harm

9:51	Comment From Houzer Was last year an aberration for Colin McHugh? Looking at his numbers, I guess he’s only had two bad starts that are inflating his ERA. But he’s just not looking that great this year

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s fine, in that I don’t think he’s gotten much worse. I do think last year will stand, statistically, as a career year, but he’s still a fine enough No. 2 starter, and I trust that he’ll be able to stay successful

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see much that’s troubling in the indicators. It is unusual to see a pitcher who relies so little on his fastball, but that’s just an extension of the pattern from 2014

9:52	Comment From Tony Eduardo capable, even at 22, of being the Sox best starter the rest of the way?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Sure

9:55	Comment From Brett W If you were Cardinals GM, how would you handle first base?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Probably someone like Adam Lind. Should be cheap, should be available now, shouldn’t be an obstacle beyond this season

9:56	Comment From Jon Lester Is there a stat for a pitchers’ ability/lack of to hold runners?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: rSB gets you some of the way there http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: That tells you just about stolen bases, and it doesn’t tell you about leads and extra bases getting taken, etc. But then you can look at LOB% for more of an overall picture

9:57	Comment From Forsyth Thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez’s start last night?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He’s ready. Didn’t consistently bury the changeup enough, but his stuff is good enough that he doesn’t need pinpoint command

9:58	Comment From Alex Anthopoulos Am I out of a job if the Jays don’t play some meaningful September games?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t be

9:59	Comment From S How much has Tulo’s value been hurt from his awful start?