Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/23/17

June 23, 2017

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06	Jack: Freddie Freeman at 3B can’t work, right?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Sure it can. Maybe not super well, but the Braves’ 3B alternatives right now suck. Adams is better than all of them, so, might as well give this a try

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Not going to be permanent. I imagine, longest-case scenario, Freeman plays third through the end of this year, and then Adams or someone goes away in the winter. But I like this more than I don’t

9:07	Bob: Expectations for rodon when he returns? What’s his career ceiling? Thx!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see any reason yet to change away from my ceiling comp of Francisco Liriano. Rodon isn’t that good yet, but it’s within his reach

9:08	AC: Aside from J.D., who are the Tigers most likely to move when they inevitably decide to sell?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Avila and the two Wilsons would be dangled as helpful role players

9:09	Yes: Is Cody Bellinger real?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: He’s real in that the computer simulation in which we exist is real, and so so are all of the things being simulated

9:10

Camp: Let’s call a spade a spade – Joe Maddon is overrated. Anyone could’ve managed that loaded Cubs team last year and they were lucky to win after he was badly out managed by Francona in the World Series. His lineups are stupid, not “creative”, and his in-game managing is mediocre at best. Why is this guy so highly regarded?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Players love playing for him

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: That’s the whole thing

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he’s accessible, and different, and he makes for a good story and everything, but at the end of the day, his responsibility is to be a leader. He has an established track record of fostering a strong and united club environment, and that’s irreplaceable

9:11	Bob: Archer or carmar’s career? Who’s ends up better?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: CarMar? We’re doing CarMar?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Like them both, and Martinez has the advantage of being considerably younger. Archer has the advantage of being better right now. Forced to pick, I guess I’d have to worry about Archer’s sky-high slider right. Might make him that much more likely to break down

9:15	Jack: Any thoughts on Jacob Faria? Pretty darn impressive start to his big-league career

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Hey, look, another young Rays starting pitcher with a high rising four-seam fastball!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been tough to hit against advanced competition. Doesn’t have much in the way of a platoon split. Will be held back for now by come-and-go command, so he’s not exactly a workhorse, but there’s a lot to like here already

9:17	LegallyEagle: Since the Tigers have such terrible pitch framing, is there any educated guess as to how much Verlander would improve if he were traded to a team like the Dodgers?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Verlander got decent catching support even just last year. McCann rated as a better receiver then. And Verlander was terrific. Which is not to suggest that everything he has going on in 2017 is the fault of his own backstops

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Checking some numbers real quick…

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: According to what I can find at Baseball Prospectus, it’s not framing that’s dragging Verlander down. He’s been received somewhere in the vicinity of average this season

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’d be better, of course, as a Dodger, just because of the support, but a guy like Verlander isn’t someone who needs a good catcher in order to succeed

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: It would be more striking to, say, put Dallas Keuchel on the Tigers and then see what happens

9:23	Batflips for BB: If we are to believe that two-way players are possible (a big if), what particular positions do you think would be the most conducive to being part-time pitchers? Catchers, because they spend the most time thinking about pitching of any position?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve believed that at one point, but then I watched Miguel Olivo every day and I realized that catchers sometimes don’t seem to know shit about shit

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Inclined to think shortstops, just because they’re the best athletes, and they tend to have the best arms

9:25	CamdenWarehouse: Very unimportant question for you as a writer: I’ve heard you use, more than once each, cyclical and prideful rather than cyclic and proud. Is there a reason to go with the word with more letters?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is usually that I’m just a poor and untrained writer trying to write fast

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But every so often the longer word does have a way of sounding better within a specific sentence’s construct. It’s always important to keep in mind how a sentence sounds within the head of a reader

9:26	Dan: Who are the mid-level SP available at the deadline? Everyone talks about Quintana or Archer, but what if the Cubs don’t want to give up Eloy. Is Vargas mid-level? I don’t think…I don’t think he’s very good.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not very good, and besides that, now it doesn’t look like the Royals are going to want to sell anyway

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs could, in theory, go back to the Richard or Cahill wells. Jaime Garcia’s not terrible.

9:29

Ross: Why are the Rockies getting so much more attention than the Diamondbacks? Don’t get me wrong, the Rockies should be getting lots of attention, but the DBacks are tied with them in the standings and their success might be even more surprising than Colorado’s. The Rockies were a popular dark horse pick coming into the season. Everyone thought Arizona was a mess whose best-case scenario was .500ish.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Are they? Do we even know that to be true?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I know, at least on FG, the Rockies have gotten a good amount of coverage lately, but just off the top of my head, as far as the Diamondbacks go, we’ve had content on Goldschmidt, and the baserunning, and Godley, and Bradley, and Ray…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Plenty of material to go around. Plenty of time left to write

9:30	RM: Which AL team escapes from the pack over the next month to grab the 2nd WC slot? Does that team keep it the rest of the way?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Well, yeah, that’s the thing. The next month is important, but it’s not going to seal the race

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are positioned well if Felix Hernandez shows something now that he’s back. That’s a strong lineup top to bottom

9:32	Bobbo the Blobbo: Should we expect much from Carlos Rodon when he gets back? Looked a bit rough in his Rehab starts.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully they’ve been rehab starts. Rehab starts aren’t to be analyzed. Don’t expect Rodon to be dominant immediately, but I’m not concerned by his 2017 minor-league numbers

9:33	AK: There’s something poetic about Freddie Freeman making an unusual position change in order to accommodate Matt Adams who was traded because he couldn’t make an unusual position change. Baseball!

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: My current favorite thing about it is that the Braves are willing to move the face of the franchise to a position he hasn’t played in a decade in order to accommodate a player that one month ago they got for basically free

9:34	Jaime: Aaron Judge’s rolling 15-game average zone contact% is…… scary, to say the least. The strikeouts are continuing to climb – now over 30% for the first time this season. I don’t want to sound like the crazy guy predicting the end of the world, but Judge might have some serious problems soon.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for Judge: in June, he has his season’s highest monthly K%, but also his season’s highest monthly wRC+

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: His contact rate has indeed been sinking. And if memory serves, pitchers started working him up a little more often. I still wouldn’t say he’s quite yet in trouble

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: June Judge has had his hard-pitch rate increase by five percentage points. He seems to be seeing more hard pitches inside. Still the MLB leader in WAR

9:38	LegallyEagle: Any reasonable chance the Dodgers pick up Verlander? If the Dodgers are willing to dangle Verdugo, how much salary would the Tigers eat?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Dodgers would be interested right now. Verlander hasn’t been very good

9:39	Jimbo: Thoughts on the Rizzo-Hedges collision?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Rizzo broke the rules

9:40

Bryan: The Nationals currently have a 9 game lead in the division and short of a plane crash, should have no issues clearing the east. That said, should Dusty be running up innings and pitches on his starting pitchers at this point in the season?

If you win the division by 1 game or 15 it’s all the same. But if you blow out Max’s or Strasburg’s arm it’s all for nothing

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I would imagine things will get more conservative down the stretch, when the playoffs are nearer, and when the bullpen has been addressed so it’s no longer a nightmare. Can’t fault Dusty right now for being reluctant to go to a reliever

9:41	Bob: Harper always seems to start hot then cool off. I’d wager a lot of it has to do with injury, but does anyone know what his workout routine is during the season? Is there a chance the guy is just working out too much during the season and is getting fatigued?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a shock if he ran himself tired. For whatever it’s worth, over his career, his worst month historically has been July, by a big margin. Huge recovery in August/September

9:43	Ryan DC: Is Cody Bellinger going to have a dramatic second-half swoon like Joc Pederson did his rookie year?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It is interesting — by plate-discipline statistics, Bellinger and rookie Pederson look one and the same

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think Bellinger is better, but his second half is going to be a lot rougher than his first.

9:44	Ben Gamel: Dave Cameron says he thinks I’ve crossed the threshold to everyday player, in spite of the BABIP.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Playable third outfielder. I think Gamel has more power than he’s presently showing

9:45	Greg: Would teams be better off having to use a 4 man outfield, or having to use a 5 man infield? Assuming the team was able to build and optimize their team around this requirement

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I’m thinking a four-man outfield. Gets complicated when you have to worry about getting a defender to the unoccupied base for a potential play, but at least as far as batted balls are concerned, there’s often a whole segment of the infield where a hitter will basically never put a ground ball

9:47	Marichal: Since Cueto is reportedly planning to opt out of his contract next year, what are the chances that the Giants move him this summer, and who would be the most likely trade partners?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be plenty of chatter, but Cueto doesn’t actually have to make that decision until the fall. So he comes with pretty significant risk

9:48	RM: The Cubs are 5th in the NL “Playoff Odds” race with an 83% chance. The Cardinals are 6th with a 20% chance, and the majority of that comes from a potential division title. No question. Just in awe of the NL West.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Give this to the Mets and Giants — they aren’t just underachieving. They’re terrible, and it’s upended the landscape

9:48

BJOGC: Jeff, I know you don’t do the FG podcasts anymore but after talking to Carson for like 90 minutes, did you ever catch yourself emulating his speech patterns? Sometimes at work when I binge a few episodes of his podcast I find myself adopting his speech patterns and vocabulary. I’ll call people by their full name, use words like insofar and ennui, and do that “double talk” thing he does where he’ll say something and then immediately says the exact opposite afterwards

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I do not do that

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There are people I catch myself accidentally mimicking, but Carson is not one of them

9:49	Jimbo the Bimbo: Is Jon Gray going to come back, immediately become the ace of the Rockies, and lead them to the playoffs? Can we expect great things? Good things? Fine things? Things?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Desire good things, settle for fine things. I like Gray a lot but it wouldn’t surprise me if his mechanics are a little wonky as he moves past getting hurt

9:51	Geronimo A: Does Bregman turn it around? What kind of hitter does he become?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Already, he’s grown more disciplined, and he’s making more contact. Bregman isn’t a lost cause, and his suite of skills sets a pretty high floor. I’m not sold on his having actual power, but he can be a 100 – 110 wRC+ kind of hitter for a while

9:52	Bub the Blub.: Does Felix H. have anything left, or are we watching a great pitcher fade away?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: No reason it couldn’t be both. We’re all fading away

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Felix, last year, threw 63% strikes. Before getting hurt this year he was up at 68%. It’s something

9:55	JD: When can we expect the super nerdy explanation for Mike Fiers incredible turn around? How many more good starts are needed before we can start to believe?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not going to convince me Fiers is up to anything special. It’s just that, now, instead of giving up every home run, he’s giving up no home runs

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The truth, it turns out, is somewhere in between all or nothing

9:56	Crazy Aunt Marie: Is Harper “hurt” again? He’s been only slightly above avg since April instead of otherworldly. Is there something going on here to be concerned about?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just streaky

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Streaky, and he’s gotten to face a lot of bad pitchers

9:58

Matty Bum: What do you think about dejuicing the ball as a solution to multiple current problems with the game? Basically just change it so it’s much harder to homer, and then shrink the zone to compensate for the loss in offense. The high-K approach won’t work without lots of bombs, and pitchers will challenge guys who aren’t a threat to go yard. All around should depress all 3 of TTO, and ideally cause more early count balls in play, speeding up the game.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: You’re removing home runs and adding more walks, and I don’t think that makes the game all that much more entertaining. Walks are boring

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced baseball is actually entering a crisis, and even if it was worth attempting to solve things through the given means, talk about the potential for unintended consequences. By how much do you reduce the ball’s liveliness? By how much do you shrink the zone? It’s very, very difficult to execute

9:59	Jimmy: What will you be looking for from Felix over the next 2-3 starts as indicators of future effectiveness?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Strikes

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: That’s it. Strikes and health

9:59	Kyle: Do the royals end up selling what they can? or do they ride it out to 79 wins?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve played well enough I think they stay together