Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/23/17

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Jack: Freddie Freeman at 3B can’t work, right?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sure it can. Maybe not super well, but the Braves’ 3B alternatives right now suck. Adams is better than all of them, so, might as well give this a try

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Not going to be permanent. I imagine, longest-case scenario, Freeman plays third through the end of this year, and then Adams or someone goes away in the winter. But I like this more than I don’t

9:07
Bob: Expectations for rodon when he returns? What’s his career ceiling? Thx!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see any reason yet to change away from my ceiling comp of Francisco Liriano. Rodon isn’t that good yet, but it’s within his reach

9:08
AC: Aside from J.D., who are the Tigers most likely to move when they inevitably decide to sell?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Avila and the two Wilsons would be dangled as helpful role players

9:09
Yes: Is Cody Bellinger real?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: He’s real in that the computer simulation in which we exist is real, and so so are all of the things being simulated

9:10
Camp: Let’s call a spade a spade – Joe Maddon is overrated. Anyone could’ve managed that loaded Cubs team last year and they were lucky to win after he was badly out managed by Francona in the World Series. His lineups are stupid, not “creative”, and his in-game managing is mediocre at best. Why is this guy so highly regarded?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Players love playing for him

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the whole thing

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he’s accessible, and different, and he makes for a good story and everything, but at the end of the day, his responsibility is to be a leader. He has an established track record of fostering a strong and united club environment, and that’s irreplaceable

9:11
Bob: Archer or carmar’s career? Who’s ends up better?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: CarMar? We’re doing CarMar?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Like them both, and Martinez has the advantage of being considerably younger. Archer has the advantage of being better right now. Forced to pick, I guess I’d have to worry about Archer’s sky-high slider right. Might make him that much more likely to break down

9:15
Jack: Any thoughts on Jacob Faria? Pretty darn impressive start to his big-league career

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Hey, look, another young Rays starting pitcher with a high rising four-seam fastball!

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s been tough to hit against advanced competition. Doesn’t have much in the way of a platoon split. Will be held back for now by come-and-go command, so he’s not exactly a workhorse, but there’s a lot to like here already

9:17
LegallyEagle: Since the Tigers have such terrible pitch framing, is there any educated guess as to how much Verlander would improve if he were traded to a team like the Dodgers?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Verlander got decent catching support even just last year. McCann rated as a better receiver then. And Verlander was terrific. Which is not to suggest that everything he has going on in 2017 is the fault of his own backstops

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Checking some numbers real quick…

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: According to what I can find at Baseball Prospectus, it’s not framing that’s dragging Verlander down. He’s been received somewhere in the vicinity of average this season

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’d be better, of course, as a Dodger, just because of the support, but a guy like Verlander isn’t someone who needs a good catcher in order to succeed

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: It would be more striking to, say, put Dallas Keuchel on the Tigers and then see what happens

9:23
Batflips for BB: If we are to believe that two-way players are possible (a big if), what particular positions do you think would be the most conducive to being part-time pitchers? Catchers, because they spend the most time thinking about pitching of any position?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve believed that at one point, but then I watched Miguel Olivo every day and I realized that catchers sometimes don’t seem to know shit about shit

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Inclined to think shortstops, just because they’re the best athletes, and they tend to have the best arms

9:25
CamdenWarehouse: Very unimportant question for you as a writer: I’ve heard you use, more than once each, cyclical and prideful rather than cyclic and proud.  Is there a reason to go with the word with more letters?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is usually that I’m just a poor and untrained writer trying to write fast

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: But every so often the longer word does have a way of sounding better within a specific sentence’s construct. It’s always important to keep in mind how a sentence sounds within the head of a reader

9:26
Dan: Who are the mid-level SP available at the deadline? Everyone talks about Quintana or Archer, but what if the Cubs don’t want to give up Eloy. Is Vargas mid-level? I don’t think…I don’t think he’s very good.

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not very good, and besides that, now it doesn’t look like the Royals are going to want to sell anyway

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs could, in theory, go back to the Richard or Cahill wells. Jaime Garcia’s not terrible.

9:29
Ross: Why are the Rockies getting so much more attention than the Diamondbacks? Don’t get me wrong, the Rockies should be getting lots of attention, but the DBacks are tied with them in the standings and their success might be even more surprising than Colorado’s. The Rockies were a popular dark horse pick coming into the season. Everyone thought Arizona was a mess whose best-case scenario was .500ish.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Are they? Do we even know that to be true?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I know, at least on FG, the Rockies have gotten a good amount of coverage lately, but just off the top of my head, as far as the Diamondbacks go, we’ve had content on Goldschmidt, and the baserunning, and Godley, and Bradley, and Ray…

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Plenty of material to go around. Plenty of time left to write

9:30
RM: Which AL team escapes from the pack over the next month to grab the 2nd WC slot? Does that team keep it the rest of the way?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Well, yeah, that’s the thing. The next month is important, but it’s not going to seal the race

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are positioned well if Felix Hernandez shows something now that he’s back. That’s a strong lineup top to bottom

9:32
Bobbo the Blobbo: Should we expect much from Carlos Rodon when he gets back? Looked a bit rough in his Rehab starts.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully they’ve been rehab starts. Rehab starts aren’t to be analyzed. Don’t expect Rodon to be dominant immediately, but I’m not concerned by his 2017 minor-league numbers

9:33
AK: There’s something poetic about Freddie Freeman making an unusual position change in order to accommodate Matt Adams who was traded because he couldn’t make an unusual position change.  Baseball!

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: My current favorite thing about it is that the Braves are willing to move the face of the franchise to a position he hasn’t played in a decade in order to accommodate a player that one month ago they got for basically free

9:34
Jaime: Aaron Judge’s rolling 15-game average zone contact% is…… scary, to say the least.  The strikeouts are continuing to climb – now over 30% for the first time this season.  I don’t want to sound like the crazy guy predicting the end of the world, but Judge might have some serious problems soon.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for Judge: in June, he has his season’s highest monthly K%, but also his season’s highest monthly wRC+

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: His contact rate has indeed been sinking. And if memory serves, pitchers started working him up a little more often. I still wouldn’t say he’s quite yet in trouble

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: June Judge has had his hard-pitch rate increase by five percentage points. He seems to be seeing more hard pitches inside. Still the MLB leader in WAR

9:38
LegallyEagle: Any reasonable chance the Dodgers pick up Verlander? If the Dodgers are willing to dangle Verdugo, how much salary would the Tigers eat?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Dodgers would be interested right now. Verlander hasn’t been very good

9:39
Jimbo: Thoughts on the Rizzo-Hedges collision?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Rizzo broke the rules

9:40
Bryan: The Nationals currently have a 9 game lead in the division and short of a plane crash, should have no issues clearing the east.  That said, should Dusty be running up innings and pitches on his starting pitchers at this point in the season?

If you win the division by 1 game or 15 it’s all the same.  But if you blow out Max’s or Strasburg’s arm it’s all for nothing

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I would imagine things will get more conservative down the stretch, when the playoffs are nearer, and when the bullpen has been addressed so it’s no longer a nightmare. Can’t fault Dusty right now for being reluctant to go to a reliever

9:41
Bob: Harper always seems to start hot then cool off.  I’d wager a lot of it has to do with injury, but does anyone know what his workout routine is during the season?  Is there a chance the guy is just working out too much during the season and is getting fatigued?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a shock if he ran himself tired. For whatever it’s worth, over his career, his worst month historically has been July, by a big margin. Huge recovery in August/September

9:43
Ryan DC: Is Cody Bellinger going to have a dramatic second-half swoon like Joc Pederson did his rookie year?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: It is interesting — by plate-discipline statistics, Bellinger and rookie Pederson look one and the same

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think Bellinger is better, but his second half is going to be a lot rougher than his first.

9:44
Ben Gamel: Dave Cameron says he thinks I’ve crossed the threshold to everyday player, in spite of the BABIP.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Playable third outfielder. I think Gamel has more power than he’s presently showing

9:45
Greg: Would teams be better off having to use a 4 man outfield, or having to use a 5 man infield? Assuming the team was able to build and optimize their team around this requirement

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I’m thinking a four-man outfield. Gets complicated when you have to worry about getting a defender to the unoccupied base for a potential play, but at least as far as batted balls are concerned, there’s often a whole segment of the infield where a hitter will basically never put a ground ball

9:47
Marichal: Since Cueto is reportedly planning to opt out of his contract next year, what are the chances that the Giants move him this summer, and who would be the most likely trade partners?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be plenty of chatter, but Cueto doesn’t actually have to make that decision until the fall. So he comes with pretty significant risk

9:48
RM: The Cubs are 5th in the NL “Playoff Odds” race with an 83% chance. The Cardinals are 6th with a 20% chance, and the majority of that comes from a potential division title. No question. Just in awe of the NL West.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Give this to the Mets and Giants — they aren’t just underachieving. They’re terrible, and it’s upended the landscape

9:48
BJOGC: Jeff, I know you don’t do the FG podcasts anymore but after talking to Carson for like 90 minutes, did you ever catch yourself emulating his speech patterns? Sometimes at work when I binge a few episodes of his podcast I find myself adopting his speech patterns and vocabulary. I’ll call people by their full name, use words like insofar and ennui, and do that “double talk” thing he does where he’ll say something and then immediately says the exact opposite afterwards

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I do not do that

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: There are people I catch myself accidentally mimicking, but Carson is not one of them

9:49
Jimbo the Bimbo: Is Jon Gray going to come back, immediately become the ace of the Rockies, and lead them to the playoffs? Can we expect great things? Good things? Fine things? Things?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Desire good things, settle for fine things. I like Gray a lot but it wouldn’t surprise me if his mechanics are a little wonky as he moves past getting hurt

9:51
Geronimo A: Does Bregman turn it around?  What kind of hitter does he become?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Already, he’s grown more disciplined, and he’s making more contact. Bregman isn’t a lost cause, and his suite of skills sets a pretty high floor. I’m not sold on his having actual power, but he can be a 100 – 110 wRC+ kind of hitter for a while

9:52
Bub the Blub.: Does Felix H. have anything left, or are we watching a great pitcher fade away?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: No reason it couldn’t be both. We’re all fading away

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Felix, last year, threw 63% strikes. Before getting hurt this year he was up at 68%. It’s something

9:55
JD: When can we expect the super nerdy explanation for Mike Fiers incredible turn around? How many more good starts are needed before we can start to believe?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: You’re not going to convince me Fiers is up to anything special. It’s just that, now, instead of giving up every home run, he’s giving up no home runs

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: The truth, it turns out, is somewhere in between all or nothing

9:56
Crazy Aunt Marie: Is Harper “hurt” again? He’s been only slightly above avg since April instead of otherworldly. Is there something going on here to be concerned about?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just streaky

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Streaky, and he’s gotten to face a lot of bad pitchers

9:58
Matty Bum: What do you think about dejuicing the ball as a solution to multiple current problems with the game? Basically just change it so it’s much harder to homer, and then shrink the zone to compensate for the loss in offense. The high-K approach won’t work without lots of bombs, and pitchers will challenge guys who aren’t a threat to go yard. All around should depress all 3 of TTO, and ideally cause more early count balls in play, speeding up the game.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: You’re removing home runs and adding more walks, and I don’t think that makes the game all that much more entertaining. Walks are boring

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced baseball is actually entering a crisis, and even if it was worth attempting to solve things through the given means, talk about the potential for unintended consequences. By how much do you reduce the ball’s liveliness? By how much do you shrink the zone? It’s very, very difficult to execute

9:59
Jimmy: What will you be looking for from Felix over the next 2-3 starts as indicators of future effectiveness?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Strikes

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: That’s it. Strikes and health

9:59
Kyle: Do the royals end up selling what they can? or do they ride it out to 79 wins?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve played well enough I think they stay together

10:00
Rod: If you were Coppy would you just trade Matt Adams instead?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: No real point. He has next to zero market value and it wouldn’t make the 2017 Braves any better

10:00
Dope: What do the Dodgers do when Adrian Gonzalez is healthy?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Play him sometimes

10:01
Mac: Do the Indians really need to trade for a SP or is it more wait and see what happens with Salazar?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they need to do anything yet

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Clevinger is fine

10:01
J.D.: You often have team rolling-game average graphs in your posts. Is there a link where that’s available to create? I’ve only been able to figure out how to do player graphs like that.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Oh, wait, misread your question

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: No, no link. I do those manually

10:03
PTBNL: Any thoughts on what kind of talent the Sox would have to give up to land Frazier or Moustakas? They need help at 3B but Dealin’ Dave has already ravaged the minor league system.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Todd Frazier’s a contract-year player with a 93 wRC+. He’s not going to cost a whole lot

10:03
Guest: What are your thoughts about Andrew Moore?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Anyone who throws strikes without being overpowering has a good chance of being an underrated prospect

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: No reason he can’t be a big-league No. 5 right now

10:05
JD: Martes or Paulino? Martes lights up the gun but Paulino seems to be managing contact better (read something about crazy high release point?). Who do you like for this year? Same question but for the long term?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Short-term, I trust Paulino more to throw somewhat consistent strikes. But Martes is very difficult to hit and probably does have the higher ceiling

10:06
Sam: I am a yankees fan.  Help me please

10:09
Terrible Ted: If you were a pitching coach, how would you suggest your pitchers attack Judge?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Carefully

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: No real key right now. He’s got swing-and-miss, sure, but if you work him away, he can take you deep to right. His swing plane is pretty flat, so he can hit the pitch up. He bats a little open, so he can turn on pitches in

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’d probably focus on fastballs on the hands, mixed with sliders away. Nothing original, nothing groundbreaking, but it’s traditional for a reason

10:12
Cameron: True or False: David Ortiz’s grand slam in game 2 of the 2013 ALCS was the death knell of that Tigers run

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: How about Shane Victorino’s grand slam in game 6?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers won game 4 to pull even in the series

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: There was also that moment in game 5 — 4-2 Red Sox, bottom 7, but Miguel Cabrera up with no one out and two men on. Cabrera hit into a double play

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: That swung the win expectancy 16 points. Crippling

10:14
CamdenWarehouse: Do you think that Freeman volunteering to move to third could be seen in the clubhouse as him disparaging the current 3B options?  It’s one thing if the manager moves players, but in this case it’s the star player moving himself.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think everyone’s aware the 3B options have been bad, and they’ve also mostly been unproven young players anyway. And no one has missed what Matt Adams has done

10:15
Crazy Aunt Marie: Do you forsee a scenario where the Blue Jays trade Donaldson to the Yankees or Red Sox? Should the stigma of trading to a division rival really stand in the way of maximizing value?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Will not happen

10:15
GoM’s: Better to have Iwakuma start for the rest of the season and reach his vesting option or Gallardo start for the rest of this season?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Neither is going to happen because they’ve given up on Gallardo and Iwakuma is having his shoulder checked out again

10:16
Rod: Would the Angels be a decent landing spot for a package of Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: That’s so boring, but, yes

10:17
Naveen: What do you make of the report that Mike Trout wanted a lifetime deal to stay in Anaheim and they didn’t get it done?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: We don’t know anything about the financials so it’s impossible to evaluate as a good or bad thing

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: At the time of Trout’s signing, he *was* coming off consecutive 10-win seasons. So it was beyond obvious that he was the best player in the world

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been fun to see them come to an agreement. I’d love to see the occasional contract like that. But from the team’s perspective, I mean, how confident are you ever with projecting out a player’s entire big-league career? There’s so much damn uncertainty that I don’t know what you’re supposed to do

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve been inclined to try hard, though

10:19
Goody: If you were Jameson Taillon, how much money would you pay per year to borrow Cotton’s changeup?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Jharel Cotton’s changeup has been worth five runs below average this season

10:20
JD: Brad Peacock has been amazing. If you’re the Astros, once you start to get back some of your other starters, is he better used as a multi-inning weapon out of the pen (like a second Devo) or as a starter?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I like him as a second Devenski

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I also like Michael Feliz as a kind of *third* Devenski

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros pitching staff, when healthy, really could be something else

10:21
Moltar: Woof, that Dodgers-Mets series. What a beatdown. Where do the Mets go from here? They don’t have many pieces to sell off. If the rotation doesn’t show signs of life, are they closer to a full rebuild than a world series?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: You just bank again on pitcher health in 2018. The division will still be bad, and the ability is still in there. They know they have talented pitchers. This season, though, has simply been a nightmare

10:22
Andre: Is Aaron Hicks the real deal?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He is legitimately good, but not legitimately great

10:23
Kent: Andrew Moore keeps pitching better than expected at every level (only one MLB start so far, I know). At what point does a player transition from “he can’t keep producing like this” to “this is what he is”?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Be skeptical when you’re talking about young pitchers who are allegedly overachieving. Oftentimes the real problem there is on whoever is setting the expectations in the first place

10:24
Bill: What kind of return can the White Sox expect for Tommy Kahnle?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: His lack of a track record will keep the price down somewhat, because we’re still talking about just 29.1 innings. But he’s still throwing 68% strikes. He’s got power and years of team control. He could and should get a real prospect

10:25
mplais: What kind of market is there for Jed Lowrie?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Modest, but existent

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Count him among the potential 3B options

10:26
Matt: Who is your favorite player in baseball today? Is it one of ‘your guys’ – Paxton, Broxton, etc? Or is just Mike Trout?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I like watching pitchers more than position players. And right now I like watching Paxton the most

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I still feel the deepest affection for Felix

10:27
LAA: How concerned should the Yankees be, in the scheme of 2017?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: They are in first place

10:27
Raisel Igneous Extrusive: Time to hit the panic button on Julio Urias? “Heightened concern about his shoulder” sounds pretty ominous.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, it does

10:27
Brad: Any thoughts about Sean Newcomb?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I’m floored that he’s thrown 69% strikes. That’s way, way higher than where he’s been in the minors. The magnitude of that overachieving makes me skeptical it’ll continue, but it’s at least for sure something to watch. The whole idea is that Newcomb + strikes = terrific

10:30
Greg: You are given the ability to make up a team using as many clones of any single player in the league as you desired. What player would you pick? How many clones would you choose if the rest of the 25 man roster was made up of replacement level players? How many games would this team win?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like the answer almost has to be a whole bunch of clones of Madison Bumgarner

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: But I’m not gonna lie — I’m becoming intrigued by the idea of cloning a bunch of Aaron Hickses

10:31
dan: has the reds rebuild finished or are they just ahead of schedule? does joey votto really fit into their window or is he  combination of immovable contract/face of the franchise

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: The Reds are bad

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Now, some of that is because of their lousy pitcher health. As pitchers return, they’ll improve. But that rebuild is definitely not finished

10:31
Pine Marten: Should everyone spend their Friday night watching the Dodgers-Rockies game?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Some people have plans

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Many more people don’t care about baseball

10:32
Aron: Mariners seem to be at least lukewarm buyers at the deadline. With three SPs coming back, do they focus on 1b? Who are realistic targets given their meager farm system?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not a coincidence Gamel has taken reps at first. He gives them an option in case they want to find an OF role player instead

10:35
Sean: Jeff, this is something I have thought about for a while but your post about Freeman makes me want to ask you. What do you think about a position swap for Tomas and Goldy? I think Tomas could be an average or slightly above-average 1B and I think Goldy might not be a terrible LF. Do you think this could be a positive for the Dbacks?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, a few things. For one, just on paper, I think it’s feasible. Goldschmidt seems like he has the ability to play corner OF, and Tomas would be much better with less ground to cover

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: For two, a big help to the Braves is that this was Freeman’s idea. Goldschmidt might not want to move, and then you don’t want to upset him

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: For three, Tomas has a career 98 wRC+. He does not seem to be a good baseball player. Maybe, instead of moving Goldschmidt to accommodate Tomas, the Diamondbacks just find someone better than Tomas

10:37
Andre: What do you expect from Aaron Hicks the rest of the season?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good overall play

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t yet see anything worrying

10:40
Connor : Biggest name to be moved at the deadline?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Asher Wojciechowski is a pretty big name

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: so is Adeiny Hechavarria

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Sonny Gray would have the most prominent name

10:41
L: Would you deal deGrom if you were the Mets? What kind of package would he net?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Not a good time with his results worse than usual

10:41
LegallyEagle: How much longer does Schwarber have to struggle before the Cubs regret not trading him?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: The rest of the season

10:42
Greg: How would the game change if bounced balls that cross through the strike zone were called strikes?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Do you like cricket? It would become more like cricket

10:42
Billyboy: A skills competition would be fun. What events would you like to see, with which players participating?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Way too broad a question, but for a batted-ball accuracy competition, I want Joey Votto

10:42
SLIDERS: I want to travel to a different universe where the White Sox used their 2017 offseason to trade Sale to the Dodgers to get Bellinger and shipped Quintana to the Yankees for Judge.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: If it makes you feel better there are zero guarantees Bellinger and Judge would’ve developed the same with Chicago

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: maybe that doesn’t make you feel better

10:45
Brian: What’s wrong with Gausman? Velocity is fine, results are atrocious. Watched him the other night: first four innings were dominant, then got into a tiny sliver of trouble in the fifth and imploded.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: He has one pitch he throws in the zone. Unless his secondary stuff is perfect, he’s exploitable

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Gausman against lefties in 2015-2016: 24% strikeouts, 6% walks

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Gausman against lefties in 2017: 14% and 15%

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: His repertoire just remains incomplete and his breaking balls have regressed

10:47
Buxton: Giving up on me yet?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: 86 wRC+ over the last two months, with very good defense and baserunning

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing wrong with being an AL and slightly more powerful Billy Hamilton

10:48
caesar_solid: i can has article on Blake Parker?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: This is as close as it gets for now http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-angels-bullpen-is-a-minor-miracle/

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: While I agree with you that Parker is worthy of an article, these decisions are made at least in some part with audience demand in mind. Not many people know they want to read said article

10:49
Reginald: Will the Yankees ever regret choosing Torres over Eloy Jimenez?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe, maybe not. Most recently, Torres was performing well at a higher league, and they are the same age

10:51
Michael Fulmer: Whats the ceiling for me?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: As with every pitcher, Hall-of-Fame workhorse. But your odds of getting there are extremely slim until or unless you miss more bats

10:52
Dudas Luca: Is this rockbottom for the Mets or, you know, not?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: The month of June just does not seem to agree with the Mets very much

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not rock bottom. You wouldn’t believe what rock bottom can look like

10:52
Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: I’m no doctor but… I feel like Jon Gray’s foot injury shouldn’t be a major cause for concern ROS and beyond, right?  He should be able to play back to 2016 levels, theoretically?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: His arm should be fine, but I bet his lower-body mechanics could be out of whack for a little while

10:53
2-D: What kind of stat line does a pitcher need to have to qualify his day as effectively wild?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: 2 or fewer runs, 5 or more walks/HBP

10:53
Ted: How long til you think Schwarby is back up?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: A few weeks

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe immediately post-deadline if a move gets made

10:54
Professor Donaldson: What exactly is Javier Baez?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: A useful player who strikes out too much. I’m skeptical that can ever be conditioned out of him

10:55
Hal: The growing disparity between Sale and Vargas’ fWAR and bWAR is hilarious. I know they use runs allowed and fangraphs uses FIP, but can you assure us you’re not tinkering with the numbers to avoid writing about Vargas?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Vargas deserves credit for avoiding home runs, but that’s literally the only difference between Vargas now and normal Vargas

10:55
Raindog: I don’t know how fast I can sprint, but my most recent 5k was 22:43.  How many players could I beat down the line?  Would any be non-catchers?  The number goes up on how many guys I could beat to 2nd or 3rd or home, right?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is surprisingly few

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Part of that, though, is they’re just really good at getting cleanly out of the box. If you trained yourself on that you could get up to the 10th or 20th percentile

10:56
Joe, Esq.: Dusty once made injury prone Kerry Wood throw 140+ pitches in a game in May. Bryan absolutely has cause for concern about running Max or Stras into the ground.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t matter what Dusty did a decade and a half ago. He’s not the same manager

10:57
mplais: How soon are we going to see wearables making an impact in the baseball world?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: They already are. We just don’t notice from the outside

10:58
Raindog: Is it just me, or has Jonathan Schoop turned into someone a team should want to extend?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: His swing rate is down 10 percentage points. 10 percentage points! Maybe something to keep in mind for when we hope about Baez

10:58
JP: What does the league need to do about the HR surge? Does the average fan enjoy this form of baseball? Feels like a totally different game…

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: League doesn’t need to do anything

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Not yet

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Speaking of which, about to podcast about this subject

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: So I need to get rolling

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/23/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Nick Pivetta. For real or not?

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Nick Pivetta; another real human being