Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/26/15

June 26, 2015

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: That was weird. My comment didn’t show up. I think it’s there. Ok!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: A friendly note: unlike most Fridays, this chat will have to end before it stretches past the 2-hour mark.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for forcing you to go back to work sooner than you’d prefer

9:11

Comment From HappyFunBall
So much has been made (at least here in DC) about the Nats’ starters pitching 41 1/3 scoreless innings. Also worthy of note is that this has been the first time all season that Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Fister, and Zimm have all been healthy enough to take their turns in order. How much longer can this reign of terror continue?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the best rotation in baseball, it seems to be healthy, and signs are encouraging that Strasburg is over that which was making him a disaster. So you can think of the first 2.5 months as representing the extent of the Mets’ opportunity in the East. That opportunity is now gone.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s an overstatement, but the Nats are starting to resemble the Nats, as intended.

9:13	Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry Jeff! Is a hot dog a sandwich? Is a taco a sandwich? Is a lettuce wrap a sandwich?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see different classifications. I just see foods and non-foods. It’s the 21st century.

9:13	Comment From Josh G What are your expectations for Cain and Peavy once activated?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Either one will be better than Vogelsong

9:14	Comment From howardh So, is Guti’s return to the Mariners not the most amazing thing in the history of stuff, realizing that the history of stuff dates back quite a while?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: From a more emotional perspective, it’s a hell of a story of overcoming hardship. From a cold and analytical perspective, it’s a small move to add a generally unreliable player to a struggling team. It’s hard to hold the same two outlooks at once. But this is a feel-good twist in a season of feel-bad twists

9:15	Comment From Catoblepas Jeff: give us a Diamondbacks hot take! On a related note: what’s the hottest take you’ve ever personally held?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The Diamondbacks are better than people think

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know my hottest take, and some of my strong opinions I keep to myself because they have to do with other people, but I will say I’ve never backed down from my belief that the city of Anaheim totally blows

9:16	Comment From Guest The Cardinals ERA- is 71. That is the lowest ERA- by a team since 1909.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a guy on twitter who is always eager to remind me that it isn’t fair to compare partial-season data to full-season data. He’s right!

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: With that said, you don’t need attempted historical context to understand that the Cardinals have been doing something incredible. Does it need to be said they’re not really this good? Everyone probably knows that. But to do this without Wainwright — hey, they have a healthy Jaime Garcia, for the moment. The Cardinals are a machine.

9:18	Comment From adam what do you make of smyly coming off the injury?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: I like what the Rays have done with him, and I have no idea what to expect from a guy who’s had a partially torn labrum. I assume, because of the latter, Smyly won’t be 100% of the former. I also assume, if he were in a bad way, he wouldn’t still be pitching in the first place. So I figure he’ll be a legitimate starter

9:20	Comment From hscer Pluto is probably not big enough for volcanoes, is it

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: There might be volcanoes on Triton, so Pluto has a shot

9:21	Comment From adam when should we expect the Jays to call up hoffman?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He has seven starts in High-A, with 18 strikeouts in 34 innings. I know the stuff is there, and stuff gives a pitcher like Hoffman “helium”, but it’s going to be some time. Might instead see Hoffman used as a major piece in a deadline trade

9:22	Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry Should pouring pancakes mix into a waffle maker be enough to label someone a terrorist?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: No, the intentions were good

9:23	Comment From Josh G Rubby de la Rosa has been great over his last 3 starts. Are you buying this turnaround going forward?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: He still has real problems with left-handed hitters. With that said, he’s at a career-low contact rate, and a career-high rate of swings out of the zone. He’s a functional and interesting starting pitcher. Got warts, but, most of them do

9:25	Comment From Jack Elliott One of these days you’ll be early…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I keep thinking that some Friday I’m going to show up like 45 minutes early and see who’s around

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That Friday was not this Friday

9:26	Comment From Will How long til we see married teammates in MLB? Gay or straight first?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It would be gay first, but given the probabilities, I assume none of us will see that in our lifetimes

9:26	Comment From The Dude Moustakas: Real improvements or extended hot stretch?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty well established this is a new level for him. Last year, 17 hits to the opposite field. This year, 31, already

9:27	Comment From Gary In real life, what’s your relative of opinion of Pineda and Salazar?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I like Salazar’s stuff more, and I like Pineda more as an actual pitcher

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: An interesting thing to note, though — Salazar has gone from 34% grounders to 46% grounders. He’s doing something to try to keep the ball from flying over the fence

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: And his strikeouts are still high! So, he’s a work in progress. Obviously, super-high ceiling

9:29	Comment From tmgmt I’ve noticed a few players at short or who used to play short who wear number 2, presumably as a tribute to Jeter. Do you know how many there are in the majors? By my count there are at least five (JJ Hardy, Melvin Upton, Alcides Escobar, Denard Span, Tulo).

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Aybar, Bogaerts, Cozart, Franklin…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan:

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m not supposed to say that in a FanGraphs chat

9:31	Comment From greg Would the Reds be wise to trade Todd Frazier, or should he be part of their future?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m on board with the Reds blowing it up. It’s not the only course, but with like no teams at all selling useful pieces, there’s the opportunity to bring back an awful lot of talent. The White Sox won’t sell the big guys. The A’s are getting back into the race. The market is bare. The Reds could be the solution

9:33	Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry Arenado is damn good. But doesn’t his profile (medium average, low walk rate) give him a much finer margin between being a star and being average?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t love that he only has eight unintentional walks this season. But he’s already at a career high for dingers, and his incredible defense raises his floor. I’m reluctant with this comparison but there are parallels between Arenado and Adrian Beltre

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: For how much Arenado swings, he makes contact so his strikeouts aren’t out of control

9:34	Comment From MotorboatJones How much longer are the Cubs going to keep Starlin Castro and his -.7 WAR in the lineup?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs don’t think Castro is actually a below-replacement player

9:36	Comment From Jojo How do the pirates upgrade at first base? Alvarez is not producing enough

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Alvarez has a 114 wRC+ against righties. He’s actually kind of been doing his part

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But the guy I can’t stop recommending now is Steve Pearce. I see him as a solution for a lot of teams’ problems. Not playing much in Baltimore, is probably better than his numbers, and Pittsburgh might appreciate his versatility

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce! Everybody should trade for Steve Pearce!

9:39	Comment From GSon comment on the emergence of the new left side of the Indians infield Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor…

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Before Urshela/Lindor: .321 BABIP allowed With Urshela/Lindor: .308

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Okay, so it’s not as dramatic as I was hoping for. But still, in theory, you’re looking at an Indians team with a solidified infield defense. The pitching staff supplies the strikeouts. This team should be so much better

9:42	Comment From Minty Why would the Twins promote Buxton and keep Sano down? Not saying either is ready, but shouldn’t the logic be the same?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Aside from any potential differences between Buxton and Sano in terms of perceived ability to make the jump, the Twins just had a bigger need in the outfield. They’re okay at third base, and they still believe in Vargas/Mauer at 1B/DH

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, now Buxton’s hurt again…

9:44	Comment From Aunt Jessie Does SCOTUS + the indie league gay pitcher hasten a gay player in the majors announcing? ( http://sports.yahoo.com/blo… )

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it. External realities have little to do with teammates’ responses, and the media response. The first one will still be a media frenzy, and even though the times are changing, I think the timeline’s basically unaffected. It’ll happen, but we don’t know when.

9:46	Comment From Chris B are the mariners done? Has a team bumped it up to a rate of .640 after a mediocre first half?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Last July 21, the Royals were 48-50

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They have to be the model, here. The Mariners still have a chance. They need their players to play to their own established levels.

9:47	Comment From Moist Alou Which team is more illustrative of its sport- The KC Royals representing the A.L in the All-Star Game or Michael Jordan, Bill Murray and Bugs Bunny representing basketball in Space Jam?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Royals provide probably a more representative slice of the big-league player pool

9:48	Comment From j6takish What do you think that dads hate more, players who don’t run out ground balls or one and done college basketball players?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I assume by dads you mean racists

9:49	Comment From Chris I feel the hype for Kris Bryant has made everyone overlook the type of season Arenado and Machado are having. Is Bryant projected to be that much better than both of them? Or is it just because “chicks dig the long ball”?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: It’s more complicated than that. We already had our Machado hype a few years ago. People move on to the next hottest thing. That sort of attention never sustains because people stop being surprised. As for Arenado, there’s just little hope of attracting much attention when you play in Colorado. At least while the Rockies are bad

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: A couple years from now, if Bryant is doing what Bryant is doing now, people won’t talk about him that much. It’s crazy. They’ll be talking about, I don’t know, Raul A Mondesi or something

9:52	Comment From Alicia V I think AROD is the best player on the yankees at this point. Is it even close?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Gardner plays defense. McCann catches. Pineda is good. Betances is stupid good.

9:53	Comment From hscer As a Nats fan, I remember last May when they were 21-6 before slumping again. But I’m hopeful it’s different this time

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how different you want it to be — last year they won 96 games

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Streakiness is okay when the highs are as high as the Nationals’ highs

9:54	Comment From The Dude I’m a Yankees fan, but how in the world do we have the best chance of anyone in the AL of winning the world series?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There aren’t any dominant teams in the American League

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s wait to see who adds Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto

9:54	Comment From Dustin In his second major league start, Matt Wisler was treated to a getaway day lineup and porous defense as a result. Am I wrong to think Atlanta should’ve avoided putting him in that position, or is it just “one of those things”?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: One of those things. In theory, he also got to face a getaway-day lineup

9:55	Comment From Joe Why are parts of WAR proprietary, is it bc you want to keep a competitive edge or more that it’s not your data to distribute?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Believe it’s more of the latter

9:56	Comment From GSon if you’re a GM & are looking for some infield help.. would you speak to the Indians about Lonnie Chisenhall (.321/442/.915) and Jose Ramirez (.356/.460/.821) in the minors?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Teams would have interest in Ramirez. He’s 22 and a shortstop. Chisenhall is a lot less appealing

9:57	Comment From MSW I agree in abstract that the Mets should take the “boring” approach now, but isn’t this really a huge indictment on their offseason? There were tons of chances to add depth to the roster and all they did was trade a first rounder for two years of Cuddyer in left.

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: The Cuddyer move wasn’t good. No getting around that. But it wouldn’t look *as* bad if he were producing like Michael Cuddyer. With Flores, Herrera, Tejada, and Murphy, the Mets did have decent middle-infield depth, and they wouldn’t have known Wright would get so messed up. Obviously they’ve done some things poorly. I can’t pretend to be an expert on the Mets’ situation. But whenever I begin to want to sympathize with the fans who are so frustrated, I look at that young pitching and think maybe people are missing the point

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the Mets have things they could do to improve. But oh my god, the pitching. And this is without Wheeler. And Montero. These should be exciting times, not aggravating times

9:59	Comment From hscer any good community articles still pending? I’m not asking for any particular reason, by which I mean of course I am