Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/22/14

July 22, 2014

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: All right, so let’s see

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Late: check

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t bother asking fantasy questions because I don’t know how to answer them: check

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are the way to my heart but I try to limit the amount of those questions I take: check

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Onward!

9:10	Comment From JR Does Baez moving to 2B imply he’ll get called up soon?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It implies they’re preparing for that and they’re not in a hurry to move Castro anywhere else. A lot of people have figured Baez would end up at second anyway so this isn’t terribly surprising

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Of note: Baez’s monthly OPS figures in Triple-A: .617, .738, .815, .944

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Still holes in his game — there will always be holes in his game — but this is a 21-year-old who’s figuring out the second-highest level of baseball

9:12	Comment From jocephus i think you are my favorite chatter since you preface no fantasy question

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think Dave does it too but he might do it in kind of a mean way

9:12	Comment From Mike Shane Greene’s stuff passes the eye test, but there’s no way he can be for real, right?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He’s coming up on 26, he didn’t even do all that well earlier this year in Triple-A, and so far in the majors he’s thrown barely one of three pitches in the strike zone. I could buy Greene as a No. 5 or something, but that’s because it isn’t too hard to be an acceptable No. 5

9:14	Comment From Guest Why isnt there a WAR for pitchers that includes their hitting and defence? Especially for NL pitchers, this has a pretty big impact on the game.

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: We talk about this from time to time. Basically, it’s because when people talk about the best pitchers, they’re just talking about the pitching ability and so we don’t want to confuse the issue. But those numbers are available on the site, and perhaps one day we’ll have a place where they’re combined

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Madison Bumgarner: 2.1 pitching WAR, 0.8 other WAR, so 2.9 total WAR

9:16	Comment From Kenny If a pitcher has a relatively high SwStr% but an average k/9 and/or k% would it be reasonable to expect his k rate (or %) to increase? Put differently is there generally a strong correlation between SwStr% and k/9 (or %)?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: There is a strong correlation, but if I recall I think the best indicator of future strikeout rate is past strikeout rate. There are people whose strikeout rates exceed their contact rates, and there are people whose strikeout rates undershoot their contact rates

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’ve noticed in the past that changeup-heavy pitchers tend to get weaker strikeout rates than you’d expect just off a linear regression with Contact% or SwS%

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think guys like Chris Capuano and Shaun Marcum were among my examples

9:19	Comment From Jake Thanks as always for your time Jeff, you’re a Mensch. NYY gets Lee, Prado, Shields, and Headley through trades/2015 FA market. Maybe sub in one or two of those names for other, league average, non-QO guys. Do you seem them for 90+ wins next year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Hell of a lot easier with Tanaka than without Tanaka. Have to see how he’s doing down the road — if he ends up needing TJ, then the Yankees are in trouble because he’s the best one

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: With Tanaka, I can see that as a 90-win team. Without him, you’re chasing the wild card

9:21	Comment From Theo Is Chris Coghlan’s emergence legit? BABIP is high but he’s hitting more line drives

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Looks to me like he’s made a change to try to hit for more power. More fly balls than ever, more pulled air balls than ever. I’m naturally skeptical of 29-year-olds who are hitting for the first time in several years, but you can never really predict the next JD Martinez so maybe Coghlan is turning himself into a reliable role player

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: And I have to be on his side because he was born just four months before I was and if I start thinking of Coghlan as over the hill then what in the hell am I supposed to do with myself

9:24	Comment From Jake Does Melky get a QO?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think so

9:25	Comment From Naveen Was the reason you were late because the mojo was risin’ last night?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve realized it’s better to just be late and done with breakfast than to try to eat breakfast while chatting slowly

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: One solution, you might propose, would be to finish breakfast before the scheduled chat time. But then

9:26	Comment From Angie Mentinks spilled drink I know that you’re skeptical of Dustin Ackley’s defensive stats. At what point can you safely say that he’s an asset defensively in LF?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I can definitely buy him as a reasonable defensive corner outfielder. Less so as a reasonable offensive corner outfielder

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: One day he’ll be a hell of a backup

9:27	Comment From Kris On the other side, shouldn’t Lester get credit for putting up 7.2 wins 2012-2013 with one of the worst framers in the game behind the plate? Dead last this year, 108th in 2013, and 94th in 2012.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Lester actually had slightly positive framers in terms of run value for each of the four years before this one. A part of that, I have to assume, is his command, and his tendency to throw fastball varieties instead of a lot of wilder breaking balls

9:28	Comment From _David_ I’m confused by the Mariners’ handling of the rotation…First, it’s Erasmo coming up for a spot people assumed Walker would get. Next, everyone’s being pushed back to create another spot, but this might not be Walker either, rather a bullpen game for an overworked bullpen?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: McClendon likes the idea of Wilhelmsen as a starter, he’s in position to give four or five innings, and Walker is impressing absolutely no one at the moment. And the bullpen’s full. Walker will be back when he’s earned it, but right now he’s pretty bad

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: which is an issue in trade negotiations, as Rosenthal tweeted about earlier this morning

9:30	Comment From Jimmy Nelson How do I fair tonight after last start’s implosion?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: The Reds don’t hit very much. You’ll be okay, with one or two too many walks

9:31	Comment From This is real life, this is not fantasy Have the Phillies already screwed the pooch when it comes to selling. It looks like half their players are off the table.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Byrd’s no-trade clause is getting in the way, and there was nothing they could do about Cliff Lee’s arm. You can kind of understand the Hamels thing, although they should at least be listening

9:32	Comment From Dewey De La Rosa and Edwin Jackson seem like really good value additions for teams. What kind of return could either team get for them?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies might get a second- or third-tier prospect for De La Rosa, although they’ve talked about keeping him and extending a qualifying offer. The most Jackson could bring the Cubs is some measure of salary relief

9:34	Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw More Likely to happen 2015, Yellowstone explodes in a field of Magma or Ben Revere hit 10 HRs?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: small Yellowstone eruption > Ben Revere 10 dingers > massive Yellowstone eruption

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: There could always be some harmless pressure release like the creation of a new cinder cone or something. But no one would care about that

9:35	Comment From Vslyke How much do you care when a guy doesn’t run out a GB? Seems like the reaction is very overblown.

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: It’s never about the groundball — it’s about using the groundball as a proxy for general, overall effort. I don’t really give a shit, provided the player demonstrates that he does give a shit in other areas. I don’t *want* a player to bust his ass trying to beat out a grounder he’s not going to beat out. Hamstrings and quads get strained all the time

9:36	Comment From _David_ Is Felix’s changeup so effective because it’s the same speed as the sinker? It probably looks identical, so the batter doesn’t know if the pitch is about to drop to his knees or his ankles.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a few miles per hour slower, and it has another half-foot or so of vertical movement. You can think of Felix, really, as having three different fastballs — a cut fastball, a sinker, and an ultra-sinker. The ultra-sinker is mean

9:39	Comment From David Dustin Pedroia … really this bad?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Everything’s normal but the power, obviously. I’m willing to give him some bounceback potential on account of the thumb injury and the surgery, but he turns 31 in a month, so I figure from this point forward Pedroia is maybe a slightly above-average hitter on true talent

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s scraping a 133 wRC+ again

9:42	Comment From I dont care what anyone says: #KeepNotGraphs

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like it’s being canceled against its will

9:42	Comment From This is real life, this is not fantasy Is there any good way to project a guy like Springer long term? Chance that his K rate becomes palatable?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Presumably this is just a part of who he is. He’s a guy who swings impossibly hard, which means he makes great contact when he makes contact, and he often doesn’t make contact. If you turn George Springer into more of a contact hitter, then what do you really have? You can’t just drop 10% off his strikeout rate and keep everything else the same

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Even this current version of Springer has a 123 wRC+. His BABIP is normal. His strikeouts aren’t totally unprecedented and he knows how to walk. The Astros should be happy if he cuts down on his whiffs even a little bit

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Ryan Howard and Chris Davis never stopped striking out, but they produced

9:44	Comment From jocephus does price to StL require oscar?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not 100% required, but it’s how St. Louis could most easily win the sweepstakes

9:45	Comment From Big Hurtin Taijuan Walker was throwing in the low 90’s in his last outing in Triple-A — another busted pitching prospect? Do M’s fans now wish they had dealt Walker+ for Price in the off-season?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: He’s coming off a shoulder thing. You’d expect some rust and you should be really worried if this is still the case in a month and a half. But more generally, if Walker *were* to bust, it wouldn’t be a shock because he’s a young pitcher whose best weapon is fastball velocity, and those guys aren’t tremendous bets

9:48	Comment From scott Apparently the M’s are interested in Starling Marte. Seems like a smart direction if they could pry him loose, no?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I know this seems like a Mariners question, but I want to turn it into a general baseball question:

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Every team in baseball should be interested in Starling Marte. Every single one of them. Being smart isn’t as simple as being able to recognize a good young ballplayer.

9:50	Comment From This is real life, this is not fantasy Hutchison k/bb or k-bb looks fine, but he keeps struggling, what’s going on?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t actually really had a particularly good K% – BB% since April, when he was strongest. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s growing fatigued

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He can still be a useful starter but he probably shouldn’t be counted on for much the rest of the way

9:52	Comment From Ioki Rockies allegedly wanted Gausman for De La Rosa. Is there a single better example of why the Rockies are awful?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The question is whether they’re willing to negotiate from that point. The Astros wanted a ton from the Orioles for Bud Norris, remember. They settled for not a ton

9:54	Comment From Guest Mike Fiers as a trade target for any contending team? Could be a useful starter. Puts up good numbers in minors, though he hasn’t started regularly in majors since 2012. Put up good numbers then too.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Contending teams tend to look for something more proven than that, but he is an interesting target for a team looking to be creative

9:55	Comment From atoms With Hanley being constantly dinged up (again), and Rojas/Triunfel not being really any great shakes, how soon are we going to see Alex Guerrero, and will he be an above-average middle infielder immediately?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Fairly soon and no, in large part because he won’t play regularly

9:56	Comment From This is real life, this is not fantasy Alex Meyer, reliever or starter long term?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: starter

9:57	Comment From Guest John Lackey pitched 7 innings last night without once reaching a 3 ball count. Can you think of many other recent instances of starters going 6+ innings without any 3 ball counts? Seems crazy.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That’s awesome. Seems like a Cliff Lee kind of factoid

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Or a factoid for any kind of strike-throwing contact pitcher. So take a look at recent versions of the Twins

9:59	Comment From Jim Is Scooter Gennett strictly a platoon player or should the Brewers be giving him an opportunity to play every day?