Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/24/15

July 24, 2015

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a chat!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s chat!

9:04	Comment From greg Did you get a chance to read the Ben Lindbergh piece on AVM this morning? Pretty cool.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Being on the west coast, I don’t get a lot of reading time before these chats. Gotta deal with breakfast and making myself look presentable. But it’s bookmarked to read after the fact

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who hasn’t seen it: http://grantland.com/featur…

9:05	Comment From Sal Hi Jeff, why would the Indians be dangling Carrasco out there? He’s excellent and extremely cheap for the next 4 years. Seems a bit premature to me no? Is their system so light on talent they need to try a move like this now?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s not make too much of it. They might just be trying to examine what the market would be for a cost-controlled strikeout starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of those out there so why not find out? It’s also possible there’s something about Carrasco that rubs the Indians the wrong way. Finally, it’s additionally possible the report is incorrect

9:07	Comment From TwistedLogic Should the Jays go all-in this year? The team is still hovering around .500, you have to assume that there’s a real chance that they could mortgage their future and still wind up in a 2014 Athletics situation.

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: There was a time for the Jays to be more aggressive, but with the division slipping away, I think it makes less sense to do something huge. They’d be gambling on the one-game playoff, and they’d probably be on the road for that game. It’s a bit too much of a risk, unless they acquire some control beyond 2015

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I could see them dealing for Samardzija, but I think there’s a difference between adding Samardzija and going all-in. It’s no longer time for them to go all-in

9:10	Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq. Do you see the Cubs going after Tyler Clippard or Brad Boxberger? If so, would Arismendy Alcantara be too much to give up?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty big difference there. Clippard is a free agent soon. Boxberger isn’t a free agent until after 2019

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, and, Alcantara is very much expendable

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Forgot that part

9:12	Comment From Mike How big of a factor is monetary when at the deadline when it comes to rentals? Price is clearly at least a little better than Cueto, but his salary is twice as high. Does this actually impact their trade value?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, but trading teams at this point frequently add some cash to maximize the return. Not that it’s the perfect example but the Pirates only took on a fraction of Aramis Ramirez’s remaining salary. Teams who are selling want young players, and they’ll generally pay what they need to get them

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Teams go into the season with some budgetary wiggle room, but it’s limited. No one likes a surprise expense of $5 – 10 million.

9:15

Comment From Jake
Thanks as always for your time Jeff. Interdivisional trades are generally not kosher, but it doesn’t really count if it hurts the Yankees. Boston sends Koji+ Aza+ a small piece to the Jays for Jeff Hoffman or Daniel Norris. Who says no? If not that deal, could BOS realistically get a top 50 prospect for Koji+Aza?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The Jays would end up saying no to that. If they’re trying to get a closer under control through next season, they’ll just pay the price for Chapman. Unlikely to see a big prospect getting exchanged for a 40-year-old, no matter the numbers

9:16	Comment From Jimmy Johns Conforto called up…. LETS GET IT

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve preferred a trade. Or two trades. This is unquestionably exciting, but the Mets should have Parra or Venable or someone by now. And they should have Zobrist. Do it all!

9:18	Comment From I am the Walrus Why doesn’t this make sense…Schwarber for Syndergaard and move Schwaber to 1B.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard is already pitching kind of like an ace. Schwarber has proven less, and there are questions about his ability to make consistent contact. There’s a foundation of a trade here, but Syndergaard would bring back a bit more

9:20	Comment From DaveDombrowski What kind of package can I expect from the Dodgers for David Price?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Remember the package Friedman accepted for Price a year ago?

9:21	Comment From Gabe How many garbage cans (out of 5) would you give the Mets if they make no trades over the next week? What do you think it is realistic to expect them to do?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: They could use an outfielder and some infield depth. Maybe, maybe, they think Conforto is that outfielder. They still really need another body. If they do nothing, that’s four garbage cans.

9:22	Comment From displacedangelsfan What would it take to get Cespedes in our lineup?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers losing more games

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels aren’t the easiest team to match up with. Still a thin system. Gott might be included, but that’s not the whole return

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Saw a report the Angels are checking in on Chase Utley. I kind of like that idea

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Utley, if he waived his NTC, would hardly cost anything, and if you figure he’s not actually toast, he could be a deadline bargain

9:26	Comment From Dad Was the return for A. Ramirez ridiculously light? It seems that way, especially considering money was also involved on the Brewers side. You’d think at least a lower top 20 prospect was possible from someone.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez isn’t a very good player, and Barrios is new to pitching, with quick-rising stuff. Very raw, but very talented, and he actually already has Triple-A experience. Barrios probably never turns into anything, but it’s a fine enough gamble given what the Brewers sent away

9:28	Comment From DaveDombrowski Joakim Soria for A.J. Cole. Who hangs up first, me or Rizzo?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Rizzo

9:28	Comment From Dad Is it a sellers market for hitters? It seems like very little is written about what to expect in terms of trades involving hitters

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I think pitchers get more of the attention, because come playoff time, you can give them extra innings. Hitters are always going to be just one out of nine. So pitchers draw a bit more of a premium. Doesn’t mean the hitter market is uninteresting, but it’s less interesting

9:29	Comment From Mark You should check out Kershaw’s single-game plate discipline numbers from the start before last. They bring to mind the Randy Johnson as Aroldis Chapman for nine innings analogy.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: For anyone curious, in his previous start against the Nationals, Clayton Kershaw allowed contact on about half of the attempted swings

9:30	Comment From Hank G. Will the Nationals give Ian Desmond a qualifying offer? If they do, should he take it?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Right now, I’d say yes and yes. He seems like he’s just made for one of those Adrian Beltre pillow contracts. But then, I once thought this about Jason Heyward, and he got better, so we’ll see. But this is something to watch

9:31	Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq. Do you expect the Phillies to make deal before the deadline?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Yep

9:31	Comment From Jon M. Thoughts on Conforto ROS? Does he stick?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s maybe an average hitter. Decent player. My preference would be for this to be temporary, for the Mets to go trade for an outfielder or two, but at least they did something

9:32	Comment From Zach Do you think Jack Z would be resistant to selling off pieces because it would be an admission that this team isn’t going anywhere, and making the current team worse only makes it harder to keep his job? Could upper management step in?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’d be too prideful to sell off short-term assets. That’s just good business. It gets more interesting with, say, Nelson Cruz. I bet Zduriencik could move Cruz tomorrow but *that* might be too much of an admission. It’s possible to navigate this deadline without giving up on 2016 being a lot better

9:34	Comment From Dan Dan DAN! What would it cost to get David Price on the Cubs this season? Cole Hamels? How likely are either of those guys for the Cubs?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Whoever wants Javier Baez the most will win the Baez sweepstakes!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Just saw something a little while ago suggesting the Cubs have offered Baez and Starlin Castro for Hamels. Probably not what the Phillies have in mind, but it’s interesting if they think Castro is salvageable

9:35	Comment From Houzer Should the Tigers be motivated to sell Price before a Hamels deal gets done?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: If Hamels goes, it affects both the supply and the demand. There would still be a Price market

9:36	Comment From Kevin So much for the Kazmir trade opening the floodgates. What gives? Where are all the deals? What are the odds that all these blue chip pitchers actually get moved?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: You’re expecting too much

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The Kazmir trade set a price. It’s not like there were all these other deals just waiting to go down. Someone had to move first, though, so other talks could progress.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Remember, last year seemed like a painfully slow deadline until deadline day

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Headley moved, then Soria, then Morales, then Peavy, and then things really picked up with 24 hours to go

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing quite like the pressure of a ticking clock to move people forward. We’re a continent of procrastinators, after all

9:40	Comment From Mike What would a Blue Jays package for Carrasco need to look like? Okay, not one without Stroman?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I have bad news

9:41	Comment From Axel Pedro Alvarez or the field to replace Logan Morrison in 2016? I say that (hopefully) in jest, but what do you think the Mariners do there next year?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they were hoping for Peterson, but he sucks. And there’s been hope for Kivlehan, but he’s in a bad way. So maybe it’s literally Jesus Montero. But there are options. They tried to get Mike Napoli before, and he’ll be on the market

9:43	Comment From Dad Is Ryan Braun a trade-able asset assuming the Brewers would not be willing to eat much of his contract? I assume it’d have to be an off season deal and would still be unlikely

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely. He’s somewhat interesting and not old, but there’s a lot of guaranteed money coming his way. The Brewers would have to take on some money. And they wouldn’t get a franchise-changing package in exchange

9:48	Comment From Alex Who do the Royals end up with via trade when August 1st rolls around?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: (Sorry about that, wifi went down)

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Total guess, I’ll go Cueto

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: But count them among the zillion teams with a use for Zobrist

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Boy, what a player to have available!

9:50	Comment From Alex Does Zobrist command a bigger return than Kazmir did? Does Beane get MLB-ready prospects this go around, or does he stick to low minors?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think he gets someone who can help in 2016

9:50

Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq.
The Brewers have already traded Aramis. It appears very likely that they are going to deal Lind, Parra, Lohse, Garza, K-Rod. There have been rumors surrounding Gomez, Lucroy, Fiers. If all of that happens (big if) will the remaining Brewers be used to judge the value of a team full of replacement players?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: We already have the Phillies

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like, if Lucroy goes, that’s more of an offseason thing. I haven’t done any research on this yet, but my sense is teams might be less willing to pay a high price to replace a catcher midseason. Obviously Lucroy is great, but it’s demanding to learn a new pitching staff on the fly

9:54	Comment From Broseph What is the monetary value of extending a QA, not having the player accept, and getting the pick? Can you justify a QA to a player who is likely to provide nearly, but not quite, the market value of $16-17 million (or whatever the QA will be next year)?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it makes sense. The pick is worth some millions of dollars, and if you have a player who projects to be worth close to the QA level, then there’s at least a decent chance he doesn’t accept. If a player’s going to be worth less than the QA, that’s only really an issue if you think there’s a 100% chance he takes it. As you reduce that chance, you increase your chances of gaining a draft pick, and before long those more than even out

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a very bad explanation but I hope it still came across

9:57	Comment From Max If your the Cubs, what’s your deadline strategy? Most of the starters on the market have been rumored to them, but the offense has looked pretty weak lately.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They also go on the Zobrist list

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they badly need a starting pitcher, but if they find that market to be more favorable, then perhaps they’ll try to reduce the runs allowed instead of increase the runs scored

9:58	Comment From Caleb If you had the first pick in the draft and could guarantee that the pick’s career would be identical to a historical MLB player, who would the tipping point be? Which player has had just just barely good enough of a career that you would sell upside on sure-fire value?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Give me a minute on this one