Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/24/15

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a chat!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s chat!

9:04
Comment From greg
Did you get a chance to read the Ben Lindbergh piece on AVM this morning? Pretty cool.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Being on the west coast, I don’t get a lot of reading time before these chats. Gotta deal with breakfast and making myself look presentable. But it’s bookmarked to read after the fact

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who hasn’t seen it: http://grantland.com/featur…

9:05
Comment From Sal
Hi Jeff, why would the Indians be dangling Carrasco out there? He’s excellent and extremely cheap for the next 4 years. Seems a bit premature to me no? Is their system so light on talent they need to try a move like this now?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s not make too much of it. They might just be trying to examine what the market would be for a cost-controlled strikeout starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of those out there so why not find out? It’s also possible there’s something about Carrasco that rubs the Indians the wrong way. Finally, it’s additionally possible the report is incorrect

9:07
Comment From TwistedLogic
Should the Jays go all-in this year? The team is still hovering around .500, you have to assume that there’s a real chance that they could mortgage their future and still wind up in a 2014 Athletics situation.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: There was a time for the Jays to be more aggressive, but with the division slipping away, I think it makes less sense to do something huge. They’d be gambling on the one-game playoff, and they’d probably be on the road for that game. It’s a bit too much of a risk, unless they acquire some control beyond 2015

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them dealing for Samardzija, but I think there’s a difference between adding Samardzija and going all-in. It’s no longer time for them to go all-in

9:10
Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Do you see the Cubs going after Tyler Clippard or Brad Boxberger? If so, would Arismendy Alcantara be too much to give up?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty big difference there. Clippard is a free agent soon. Boxberger isn’t a free agent until after 2019

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Oh, and, Alcantara is very much expendable

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Forgot that part

9:12
Comment From Mike
How big of a factor is monetary when at the deadline when it comes to rentals? Price is clearly at least a little better than Cueto, but his salary is twice as high. Does this actually impact their trade value?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, but trading teams at this point frequently add some cash to maximize the return. Not that it’s the perfect example but the Pirates only took on a fraction of Aramis Ramirez’s remaining salary. Teams who are selling want young players, and they’ll generally pay what they need to get them

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Teams go into the season with some budgetary wiggle room, but it’s limited. No one likes a surprise expense of $5 – 10 million.

9:15
Comment From Jake
Thanks as always for your time Jeff. Interdivisional trades are generally not kosher, but it doesn’t really count if it hurts the Yankees. Boston sends Koji+ Aza+ a small piece to the Jays for Jeff Hoffman or Daniel Norris. Who says no? If not that deal, could BOS realistically get a top 50 prospect for Koji+Aza?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: The Jays would end up saying no to that. If they’re trying to get a closer under control through next season, they’ll just pay the price for Chapman. Unlikely to see a big prospect getting exchanged for a 40-year-old, no matter the numbers

9:16
Comment From Jimmy Johns
Conforto called up…. LETS GET IT

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve preferred a trade. Or two trades. This is unquestionably exciting, but the Mets should have Parra or Venable or someone by now. And they should have Zobrist. Do it all!

9:18
Comment From I am the Walrus
Why doesn’t this make sense…Schwarber for Syndergaard and move Schwaber to 1B.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Syndergaard is already pitching kind of like an ace. Schwarber has proven less, and there are questions about his ability to make consistent contact. There’s a foundation of a trade here, but Syndergaard would bring back a bit more

9:20
Comment From DaveDombrowski
What kind of package can I expect from the Dodgers for David Price?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Remember the package Friedman accepted for Price a year ago?

9:21
Comment From Gabe
How many garbage cans (out of 5) would you give the Mets if they make no trades over the next week? What do you think it is realistic to expect them to do?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: They could use an outfielder and some infield depth. Maybe, maybe, they think Conforto is that outfielder. They still really need another body. If they do nothing, that’s four garbage cans.

9:22
Comment From displacedangelsfan
What would it take to get Cespedes in our lineup?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers losing more games

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: The Angels aren’t the easiest team to match up with. Still a thin system. Gott might be included, but that’s not the whole return

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Saw a report the Angels are checking in on Chase Utley. I kind of like that idea

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Utley, if he waived his NTC, would hardly cost anything, and if you figure he’s not actually toast, he could be a deadline bargain

9:26
Comment From Dad
Was the return for A. Ramirez ridiculously light? It seems that way, especially considering money was also involved on the Brewers side. You’d think at least a lower top 20 prospect was possible from someone.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez isn’t a very good player, and Barrios is new to pitching, with quick-rising stuff. Very raw, but very talented, and he actually already has Triple-A experience. Barrios probably never turns into anything, but it’s a fine enough gamble given what the Brewers sent away

9:28
Comment From DaveDombrowski
Joakim Soria for A.J. Cole. Who hangs up first, me or Rizzo?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Rizzo

9:28
Comment From Dad
Is it a sellers market for hitters? It seems like very little is written about what to expect in terms of trades involving hitters

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I think pitchers get more of the attention, because come playoff time, you can give them extra innings. Hitters are always going to be just one out of nine. So pitchers draw a bit more of a premium. Doesn’t mean the hitter market is uninteresting, but it’s less interesting

9:29
Comment From Mark
You should check out Kershaw’s single-game plate discipline numbers from the start before last. They bring to mind the Randy Johnson as Aroldis Chapman for nine innings analogy.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: For anyone curious, in his previous start against the Nationals, Clayton Kershaw allowed contact on about half of the attempted swings

9:30
Comment From Hank G.
Will the Nationals give Ian Desmond a qualifying offer? If they do, should he take it?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, I’d say yes and yes. He seems like he’s just made for one of those Adrian Beltre pillow contracts. But then, I once thought this about Jason Heyward, and he got better, so we’ll see. But this is something to watch

9:31
Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Do you expect the Phillies to make deal before the deadline?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Yep

9:31
Comment From Jon M.
Thoughts on Conforto ROS? Does he stick?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s maybe an average hitter. Decent player. My preference would be for this to be temporary, for the Mets to go trade for an outfielder or two, but at least they did something

9:32
Comment From Zach
Do you think Jack Z would be resistant to selling off pieces because it would be an admission that this team isn’t going anywhere, and making the current team worse only makes it harder to keep his job? Could upper management step in?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’d be too prideful to sell off short-term assets. That’s just good business. It gets more interesting with, say, Nelson Cruz. I bet Zduriencik could move Cruz tomorrow but *that* might be too much of an admission. It’s possible to navigate this deadline without giving up on 2016 being a lot better

9:34
Comment From Dan Dan DAN!
What would it cost to get David Price on the Cubs this season? Cole Hamels? How likely are either of those guys for the Cubs?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Whoever wants Javier Baez the most will win the Baez sweepstakes!

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Just saw something a little while ago suggesting the Cubs have offered Baez and Starlin Castro for Hamels. Probably not what the Phillies have in mind, but it’s interesting if they think Castro is salvageable

9:35
Comment From Houzer
Should the Tigers be motivated to sell Price before a Hamels deal gets done?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: If Hamels goes, it affects both the supply and the demand. There would still be a Price market

9:36
Comment From Kevin
So much for the Kazmir trade opening the floodgates. What gives? Where are all the deals? What are the odds that all these blue chip pitchers actually get moved?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: You’re expecting too much

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: The Kazmir trade set a price. It’s not like there were all these other deals just waiting to go down. Someone had to move first, though, so other talks could progress.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Remember, last year seemed like a painfully slow deadline until deadline day

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Headley moved, then Soria, then Morales, then Peavy, and then things really picked up with 24 hours to go

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing quite like the pressure of a ticking clock to move people forward. We’re a continent of procrastinators, after all

9:40
Comment From Mike
What would a Blue Jays package for Carrasco need to look like? Okay, not one without Stroman?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I have bad news

9:41
Comment From Axel
Pedro Alvarez or the field to replace Logan Morrison in 2016? I say that (hopefully) in jest, but what do you think the Mariners do there next year?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they were hoping for Peterson, but he sucks. And there’s been hope for Kivlehan, but he’s in a bad way. So maybe it’s literally Jesus Montero. But there are options. They tried to get Mike Napoli before, and he’ll be on the market

9:43
Comment From Dad
Is Ryan Braun a trade-able asset assuming the Brewers would not be willing to eat much of his contract? I assume it’d have to be an off season deal and would still be unlikely

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Unlikely. He’s somewhat interesting and not old, but there’s a lot of guaranteed money coming his way. The Brewers would have to take on some money. And they wouldn’t get a franchise-changing package in exchange

9:48
Comment From Alex
Who do the Royals end up with via trade when August 1st rolls around?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: (Sorry about that, wifi went down)

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Total guess, I’ll go Cueto

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: But count them among the zillion teams with a use for Zobrist

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Boy, what a player to have available!

9:50
Comment From Alex
Does Zobrist command a bigger return than Kazmir did? Does Beane get MLB-ready prospects this go around, or does he stick to low minors?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think he gets someone who can help in 2016

9:50
Comment From Bill S. Preston, Esq.
The Brewers have already traded Aramis. It appears very likely that they are going to deal Lind, Parra, Lohse, Garza, K-Rod. There have been rumors surrounding Gomez, Lucroy, Fiers. If all of that happens (big if) will the remaining Brewers be used to judge the value of a team full of replacement players?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: We already have the Phillies

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like, if Lucroy goes, that’s more of an offseason thing. I haven’t done any research on this yet, but my sense is teams might be less willing to pay a high price to replace a catcher midseason. Obviously Lucroy is great, but it’s demanding to learn a new pitching staff on the fly

9:54
Comment From Broseph
What is the monetary value of extending a QA, not having the player accept, and getting the pick? Can you justify a QA to a player who is likely to provide nearly, but not quite, the market value of $16-17 million (or whatever the QA will be next year)?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it makes sense. The pick is worth some millions of dollars, and if you have a player who projects to be worth close to the QA level, then there’s at least a decent chance he doesn’t accept. If a player’s going to be worth less than the QA, that’s only really an issue if you think there’s a 100% chance he takes it. As you reduce that chance, you increase your chances of gaining a draft pick, and before long those more than even out

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a very bad explanation but I hope it still came across

9:57
Comment From Max
If your the Cubs, what’s your deadline strategy? Most of the starters on the market have been rumored to them, but the offense has looked pretty weak lately.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They *also* go on the Zobrist list

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they badly need a starting pitcher, but if they find that market to be more favorable, then perhaps they’ll try to reduce the runs allowed instead of increase the runs scored

9:58
Comment From Caleb
If you had the first pick in the draft and could guarantee that the pick’s career would be identical to a historical MLB player, who would the tipping point be? Which player has had just just barely good enough of a career that you would sell upside on sure-fire value?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Give me a minute on this one

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Okay. After much deliberation, maybe my answer is David DeJesus?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Something like a 3-win player in advance of free agency. Maybe even that is too high

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: But, I have DeJesus in my head as a reliable and very boring regular. Seems appropriate for this exercise

10:04
Comment From Michael Cuva
Why would the Indians’ even consider breaking up the core of their rotation??? Doesn’t make any sense to me. They’re not THAT far off from being a solid team…

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: When faced with an unexpected rumor, always assume there’s something you don’t know

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Indians just figured, hey, why not see how seller-friendly this market really is

10:06
Comment From Guest
how does a 28 year old suddenly lose all skill in all areas in the span of a few months? a la BJ Upton? Can science explain it?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t lose all of his skills. He lost the batted-ball-authority skill. I’ll go with janked-up swing. Then you combine that with an inability to make adjustments. I don’t know the truth of the Melvin Upton story, but one day I hope to

10:08
Comment From G
The Pirates reportedly want to upgrade at 1B over Pedro Alvarez. Outside of Lind, are there any other options available you could see them getting?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Napoli

10:09
Comment From Dink
Is there some competitive advantage I don’t understand that Lloyd is trying to tap into by sac bunting to reach Zunino, or hitting and running with him at the plate? Makes no sense to me with such a low contact hitter, but I don’t have a baseball mind like Lloyd.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I guess you probably know the last thing the other team expects is for you to hit and run with Mike Zunino at the plate

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: so you get the element of surprise

10:09
Comment From GSon
Jeff Passan has suggested the Jays & Indians are discussing Carlos Carrasco, player under control for five years at a reasonable cost. Does AA make this move and what would be the return to Cleveland?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s assume no. But Toronto has a track record of calling on anyone and everyone. They’re like a more responsible Padres front office

10:10
Comment From Larry
Which current Padres will be gone in a week?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: The ones you expect, and one you don’t

10:10
Comment From Ernie
Logan Morrison is very underwhelming. Would Jesus Montero be even more underwhelming?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Differently underwhelming

10:10
Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
Expectations for Conforto this year now that he’s been called up? Do you think he has long term upside?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, of course he has long-term upside. Far less short-term upside

10:11
Comment From Kevin
Any chance the O’s surprise people by selling esp. after this recent sweep? They have quite a few guys who will be FA’s in 2016 that could be worth a rental and no real help in the upper minors for next year.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still close enough I think they hold, but I bet O’Day could get them something shiny. The reverse of last year’s Miller trade. Chris Davis would have market appeal, and I’m thinking about the Pirates

10:15
Comment From Scott
Why doesn’t Garrett Richards strike out more batters?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: He throws low in the zone, and his pitches get a lot of sink. When you’re working with a fastball that gets a lot of sink, that tends to get more weak contact than no contact

10:16
Comment From Freddy
Should sellers also be buyers? That’s not a very eloquent way of putting it. Is this what the A’s do? Seems like even if a team is a “seller,” if they could get a Carrasco or Carlos Gomez-type, value is value.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I think, when people think about sellers, they think about teams exchanging present value for prospects. What’s increasingly the case, I think, is exchanging present value for value that can help as soon as the next season. It’s still buying and selling, but it’s selling with a focus on the shorter long-term if that makes sense.

10:17
Comment From Guest
What can/should the Red Sox do? They can’t buy obviously, but what is there to sell if they want to try again next year?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Not much of value to sell, and those pieces are pretty obvious to anyone. There are still decent core players there. They can try again next year with the healthy catcher they planned on having, and a better pitching staff/defense

10:18
Comment From Catoblepas
Would you hang out with Zack Greinke for a week or two if given the choice? Like, if he asked to go hiking with you.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: If Zack Greinke asked me to hang out with him for a week or two, I’d know beyond a shadow of a doubt I’m not dealing with the actual Zack Greinke. It’s an impostor, or I’m hallucinating

10:20
Comment From CB
Hi Jeff! I asked this of Dan Szymborski but as Fangraphs is the platform he said it would be a question for you guys – when I’m looking at the ROS projections (ZIPS, Steamer, etc) and I want to look at the rate stats like ERA, etc, is there any way currently to sort between relievers and starters or set an innings minimum? And if not, might it be possible to implement this? Currently when I want to look at the rate projections for SP the leaderboard is always filled with relievers so I was just wondering if there was any recourse. Many thanks!

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: No filter currently set up, but you can always just export the leaderboard and then separate manually, using the GS column

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: It’s an extra step or two, but pretty easy

10:21
Comment From Alexandra
The Mariners obviously would like to be buyers. The Mariners obviously should do the opposite, to some degree. Do they just stand pat?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll sell. Ketel Marte just started in center field in Triple-A. Means Austin Jackson is leaving

10:22
Comment From Dang
as a depressed tigers fan, is there anything to assuage my feelings of impending doom and gloom and phillydom?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: The great outdoors

10:22
Comment From Guest
Does Price fetch the single biggest return of any rental thats traded this deadline? Or Zobrist because there’s so few bats available?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Price would get more. He’d be worth more in a postseason setting than Zobrist would

10:23
Comment From That Guy
If you could switch yesterday’s Mets starting lineup with the lineup of any AAA team, how many of those lineups would be an offensive improvement?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: That lineup made me actually want to puke

10:23
Comment From hscer
if they ever found volcanoes on Pluto, you would…

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: be thankful for volcanoes here, that are closer

10:24
Comment From Stiffendor
On the one hand, it’s exciting to hear of Marte potentially transitioning to CF. On the other, the Mariners bungle nearly every development project they task themselves with. What are your thoughts, if any, on Marte in CF?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a worthwhile attempt, because he’s probably not a real shortstop. Previously I figured Miller might go to center with Marte or Taylor taking over short, but with Miller doing well enough, it makes sense to shift a different shortstop to the middle of the outfield. I figure Marte will do enough and be good enough to be interesting, until he bombs because he’s a Mariner and that’s what they do

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Mariner fan enlightenment is realizing that nothing makes a difference, because good other players would become bad Mariners, and good Mariner prospects would become bad Mariners, and good Mariner prospects would become good non-Mariners

10:26
Comment From Guest
Is there really a “tax” on trading within the division, as commonly believed? Kazmir trade got me thinking about how we’ve seen more and more trades within divisions recently, and most times the seller didn’t seem to do overly well.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think GMs actually care

10:26
Comment From Chess
What do you think happens to Schwarber when Montero comes back?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: He hangs around. With September approaching, he could fit on the roster anyway

10:27
Comment From Travis
Assuming two things – that the Dodgers are becoming increasingly less enamored with Puig and also that Seager won’t be able to last at SS – what would Puig for Iwakuma + Miller look like as a starting point?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Friedman has been big on Miller before, so you’d get his attention. But even Miller isn’t that great of a defensive shortstop, so it would depend on how much value the Dodgers place on being strong with the glove up the middle

10:28
Comment From Gin
Which playoff-bound team is constructed the worst for payoff success? Which non-playoff team is built to theoretically do the best?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: My automatic answer is the Twins because I don’t think they’re good

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile, you’re looking at the Indians, Mets, or Giants — Giants have the kind of offense that I think can succeed against good pitchers, and the Indians and Mets have really strong strikeout rotation fronts

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Indians seem to have the better bullpen

10:31
Comment From Adam
Do you see the Yankees landing Latos or Iwakuma or neither?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be shocked to see the Yankees trade for Iwakuma and Ackley

10:31
Comment From Adam
Do you guys ever sit in on each other’s chats and submit questions under some weird alias just to troll each other/see if they can tell that it’s you?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t speak for the others except for Kiley, who occasionally leaves messages under the name “Kiley”

10:32
Comment From Chicago Mark
Jeff, Are the Mets still financially constrained by the Madoff affair? Could Conforto be cost savings rather than bold move?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think Conforto is kind of a bold move. It’s also the quickest thing they could do. They’re undoubtedly still working with a shoestring budget, but there’s money available, I have to believe

10:32
Comment From Johnny5Alive
beane wants a big 4 pitcher for zobrist, so thats not happening

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of people want lots of things

10:33
Comment From Guest
All time favorite band?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Long-term favorite band is BRMC, shorter-term favorite band is Lord Huron

10:34
Comment From Brock
Ross, Upton, Kimbrel to Toronto for Sanchez, Pompey, Reid-Foley. Who hangs up?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Padres. Padres Padres Padres

10:35
Comment From adam
what do you make of Baez’s lowered K rate? will it translate to the majors?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Last year, Baez had the second-lowest contact rate in the PCL. This year, Baez has the fifth-lowest contact rate in the PCL. Lots of work to do

10:37
Comment From Houzer
Cespedes for Appel make sense?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I think it makes some sense, but I don’t love Appel the way some others do

10:37
Comment From Anthony
If teams are in contention in the same division like the Blue Jays and the Yankees, etc. Would one team adding talent eg. Blue Jays adding Samardzija force the other teams to do the same?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t force anything, but any change to the probabilities changes the math slightly for another front office.

10:38
Comment From Prich
Angels have deep pockets and an empty farm system…. Safe to assume that if they make trades they’ll target a player whose biggest cost will be their contract rather than prospects to acquire? If so, who fits the bill?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Utley totally fits

10:39
Comment From clipart
Am I a bad fan, good fan, or somewhere in between if I want the Mariners to tank so we could replace Jack Z with someone like McLeod?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Now that the season is basically lost, it’s a lot easier to hope for the tanking.

10:39
Comment From MagicC
What kind of package would it take for the Cardinals to pick up Mike Napoli for 1B? And do you think Napoli has enough left in the tank to make this deal sensible?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t take very much

10:39
Comment From toby
Given how seemingly little Kazmir was traded for, would Price/Cueto on their own net a top 50 prospect?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Nottingham is a good prospect

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Price and Cueto would unquestionably land at least one high-quality prospect

10:40
Comment From pen fifteen
Speaking of the Angels, do you think they keep this up? Enough to hold off Houston in the division?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re the best team there, but I’m willing to see what moves happen in the next week

10:40
Comment From ZachA
Do you see the Yankees upgrading at 2nd base at the trade deadline or standing pat with a combination of Drew and Refsnyder? Do you see any good trade fit to solve the 2nd base hole for them?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve been on Ackley for years

10:41
Comment From bpqa
How many Fangraphs writers don’t play fantasy baseball?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Come to think of it, I might be the only one?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: That can’t be true

10:41
Comment From Larry
Predict number of years of Ian Desmonds next contract, if he doesnt greatly improve this year.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: 1

10:42
Comment From ZachA
What team is LEAST likely to make a trade deadline move? Just perfectly content with the way they are.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Giants?

10:43
Comment From Guest
Is Iwakuma a good fit for the Cardinals?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Good fit for every team

10:43
Comment From Mike
Will there be a baseball move as equally surprising as Lamoriello to the Leafs?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when Dan Duquette came back? That was weird

10:44
Comment From LG
You’re Ben Cherington. What is your course of action in the next week, assuming contention in 2016 remains the goal?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Trade the obvious players and evaluate Johnson, Owens, Rodriguez, etc

10:45
Comment From Mike
Jeff, I don’t have a TV but have you seen this ‘Alone’ show on History? It is what you would have expected the original Survivor to be. 10 outdoorsmen literally surviving with nothing on Vancouver Island.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have cable anymore either. I had the sudden realization the other day that I haven’t seen a commercial in like six months

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Occurred to me when I was at a movie and they ran commercials beforehand. I was like, what the shit is this

10:46
Comment From JF
Are the Astros done trading for starting pitching?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Probably yes

10:46
Comment From Blerg
Do people who write about baseball for a living love the trade deadline as much as the rest of us? Or is it just like “enough, already.”

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun, and it provides content, but it does get kind of exhausting when people routinely come thinking the deadline makes all the difference in the world. It’s actually a pretty small thing, and for now it completely overshadows the action that’s actually taking place

10:47
Comment From Tanner
Will the first female MLB player be a pitcher or position player/why?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I’d guess some sort of funky reliever.

10:48
Comment From Blerg
I hear the Braves are putting a high price on their rentals of guys like Jim and Chris Johnson and Uribe. Why? Shouldn’t they just try to unload as many of these guys as possible even if all they get are a bunch of flyers that likely never amount to much?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody has a high price on available players that haven’t been moved yet

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: That’s why they haven’t been moved yet

10:49
Comment From Jeet
Would you say Syndegaard and Harvey basically have the same value now (imagine if they were both on the same contract).

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think Syndergaard has a little more value, because of his extra control

10:50
Comment From Alex
How much does the Royals’ bullpen affect how badly they need starting pitching, given that you can more aggressively pitch your bullpen in postseason games. Starting pitching is a need, no doubt, but do they really need to shell out for an ace?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Funny you ask that! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

10:54
Comment From MagicC
Is Randall Grichuk for real? Is there any precedent for a plus-defense guy at a premium position with a 95th percentile power tool and a 10th percentile contact tool? Can that combination even work for the long term, or is he doomed to be Corey Patterson?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He’s obviously traversing a narrow ridge — if he goes off to the side, maybe he’s kind of like Wladimir Balentien, or Rick Ankiel, or something. But the strength is real, and when you combine that power with his ability to play adequate defense at multiple positions, that establishes a floor, and reduces his need to make as much contact as the average player. I think the contact keeps him from being great, but he should be a regular

10:56
Comment From Arun
if you switched places with Dombrowski, would you sell off Price and Cespedes? Would you hang on to them and hope to stay within striking distance, seeing as the team is probably in trouble down the road anyway?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I’d hang on, unless it’s a really bad week

10:56
Comment From Guest
Do you buy that Tulo doesn’t want to be traded? Why isn’t he being shopped more?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Most players don’t *want* to be traded. But I don’t think you’ll see a move like that midseason. Too much money involved, too much to work out. More of a winter-meetings thing

10:57
Comment From JF
Do you think there’s a chance the Reds would package a SP with Jay Bruce in a trade? What would Leake + Bruce have to draw from the Royals?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: They’d definitely be willing to do that. Bruce makes sense for the Royals, too, so that’s a sensible package

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Bruce/Cueto would really be something. Bruce/Leake might be more realistic

10:58
Comment From Arun
Who is the biggest name to get traded in in August?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Hmm. James Shields?

10:59
Comment From Joe
Neil Walker and an ok prospect for Zobrist? Pirates could plug Zobrist in at second until Harrison comes back then slide him to first and put Harrison at second. Woluld the A’s do that?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Pirates are unlikely to subtract to add

10:59
Comment From Arun
Will the Tigers actually become the Phillies?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: They won’t go full Phillies

10:59
Comment From kimalanus
What would a likely value for Iwakuma be for the Mariners?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Similar to what Kazmir just got.

11:00
Comment From ZachA
Mariners and Lucroy seem like a great fit. See that happening maybe in the offseason?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners would want someone shorter-term. They’re not going to give up on Zunino

11:00
Comment From sully
how is it that a team as badly run as the red sox manages to avoid the criticism that gets heaped on other teams?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox avoid criticism?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox might be the most criticized team in baseball

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Save for the current edition of the Mets

11:01
Comment From Andrew
You wrote yesterday that the Astros remain an unattractive destination for player (perception or reality). I’ve heard this before, but I don’t really understand it. What is driving this? I know the rebuild was comprehensive, which rubbed people the wrong way, but that’s a product of the system. Is there more than that? Aren’t all clubs “calculating” and “data-driven” at this point?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros developed a reputation for not caring about their players as people. That’s an over-simplification, but word spreads fast within baseball circles, and reputations last an awful long time, even after you start to win

11:03
Comment From Shawn
If Kershaw threw a perfect game last night, would it have been the least surprising perfect game (or no-hitter, even) ever?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve had to be

11:03
Comment From Will
Is Keuchal-Kazmir the best 1-2 punch in the AL?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Sale-Samardzija, or Sale-Quintana. Kluber-Carrasco.

11:04
Comment From Drapes
How much money do the Padres have to throw in with Shields to get a premium prospect back?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: A *premium* prospect? A whole lot of money

11:04
Comment From Prich
If you were Jack Z, are there any expiring contract players you don’t attempt to move?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’d have to talk with Iwakuma to see about whether he’s interested in re-signing, and whether a trade would change that

11:05
Comment From Sean Nolin
Who turns down Zobrist for Starlin? A’s take on the contract and hope he bounces back. Cubs free up infield, salary, get Zobrist.

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: A’s turn it down. Too much of a commitment for too much of a risk

11:06
Comment From Dad
Who is the worst team in baseball after the deadline?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies

11:06
Comment From Burt Macklin – FBI
Angels Acquire Conor Gillaspie From White Sox

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: just went from 6 o’clock to 6:15

11:08
Comment From Guy
So A’s press is saying Ike Davis and Eric O’Flaherty are also on the trade table. Who, uh, wants them?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: O’Flaherty uses his left hand to be a bad reliever, so he’ll find a new home

11:09
Comment From yanksfan
who hangs up first..yanks or padres: kimbrel and shields for nova and no salary relief?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: The Padres would hang up first, although maybe they shouldn’t

11:10
Comment From tmgmt
How do you avoid being burned out when you have to write two articles a day?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: No idea how it hasn’t happened yet. There are bad stretches, but thankfully everything seems to be cyclical. Ask me again in a year if we’ve lost PITCHf/x

11:12
Comment From tmgmt
Which baseball player career’s unstoppable decline are you least looking forward to as a writer and a fan?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Felix

11:12
Comment From The Ladies Man
What is love?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Fully appreciating what you have

11:12
Comment From MJ
I just submitted an article to the community blog – just curious, since I’ve never done this before, but how long do you typically take to review and post (or reject) articles?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Everything tends to be looked at within a few days. I frequently don’t check anything over the weekend

11:13
Comment From Eskin
Would you take Baez and Castro for Hamels?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t, but it’s close, and I’m not the biggest Baez fan

11:14
Comment From Jamen
Has Ackley been a bust? I often think of him as such, but he’s been a major league regular (or semi-regular) for five years now.

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: He’s averaged 1.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances, but just 1.3 since being a sophomore. I think he’s less of a bust than people say, but he’s still a bust to this point

11:15
Comment From Eskin
Does it annoy you that off days in the playoffs make almost an entirely different game than regular season baseball?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

11:15
Comment From Eskin
Why not trade Puig for Hamels?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Puig is more valuable than Hamels

11:18
Comment From Ali
Let’s say you’re a savvy GM. I imagine you’re out there trying to take advantage of not-so-savvy, or desperate, GMs. Who would you target on the Mariners in an attempt to fleece Jack Z?

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Miller or Walker

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to wrap this up and do something else

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/24/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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