Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/15
10:45 |
: Hey guys
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10:45 |
: Obviously this is quite late, but I wasn’t planning on having Troy Tulowitzki get traded
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10:45 |
: So I had to finish writing about that before I could start this. But now that’s done! So I’ll be with you just as soon as I’m done tweeting that link and this link
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10:47 |
: OK!
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10:48 |
: By the way, I’ve swapped with Kiley this week because he wasn’t available today, but he will be on Friday.
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10:48 |
: Back to normal for me, next week
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10:48 |
Hi Jeff! |
10:48 |
: Hey!
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10:48 |
do you have any idea what time it is young man |
10:48 |
: Blame the Rockies
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10:49 |
: I feel bad for Dave, who’s sick, and who was woken up in the middle of the night by his wife because his phone was going crazy
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10:49 |
Do we see Trevor Story this year or will he make his first appearance in ’16? |
10:50 |
: Working against him is that he isn’t on the 40-man
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10:50 |
: But this is really quite simple. Follow Jose Reyes!
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10:50 |
: If Reyes gets flipped, they’ll take a look at Story. If Reyes is more of a winter trade candidate, then Story will be delayed until next May or June
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10:51 |
I would like for my team to trade for Puig, as I am sure most fans would. I happen to be a Mariners fan. What package could the Mariners put together for this polemically awesome player? |
10:51 |
: Andrew Friedman has been a big Brad Miller fan before, so you could float his name and gauge the response
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10:53 |
: The problem then is the Mariners finding a shortstop. Maybe Taylor, maybe Marte, but evaluators don’t buy them
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10:53 |
Who can the Yankees realistically get without giving up Judge/Sev/Bird? |
10:54 |
: They could probably add Iwakuma and Ackley without touching those guys
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10:55 |
: Seems like if top prospects go, this deadline, it’s only for an elite-level return
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10:55 |
SSS be damned, Zunino seems to be clearly improved since Edgar tried his hand at hitting instruction. Can I be cautiously optimistic? |
10:56 |
Zunino OPS, post-Edgar: .552 |
10:56 |
: Things have been better the last few days, and these things take time, but it’s not the first instance of Zunino showing signs of life. The others haven’t panned out
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10:56 |
Papelbon to the Nationals make sense at all? |
10:57 |
: They clearly want to upgrade their bullpen. If Papelbon is really being a stickler about wanting to close, that’s a factor, but Storen could accept a temporary demotion. They’d both be important
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10:58 |
I have seen Mets fans claim (A) that Tulo should be more easily acquired now because the Mets could simply trade pitchers to the Blue Jays, and alternatively (B) that the Mets should try to trade for Reyes, because there is no way Colorado actually intends to keep him. Am I missing something or are both of these ideas just wrong? |
10:58 |
: I mean, maybe Toronto has more use than Colorado for young pitchers who are good *right now*. But the Jays didn’t get baseball’s best shortstop so that they could move him somewhere else
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11:00 |
: As for Reyes, I’m sure he is available, but I’m also unsure he’s that much of an upgrade at this point, and he’s expensive. He’s not long for Colorado, but remember that the Mets want better up-the-middle defense, and the Jays grew tired of Reyes because of his defense
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11:00 |
Thoughts on Robbie Ray? |
11:01 | : I like him! Real, meaningful progress |
11:01 |
Would you rather trade a B+ prospect for Iwakuma or Shields, assuming no money goes along with the deal? |
11:01 |
: Iwakuma. Shields probably has negative value
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11:01 |
Hi Jeff…is Ketel Marte’s move to CF an indication that Austin Jackson is on the way out? |
11:01 |
: Yes. Even if not this week, Jackson is gone in a few months and there’s no CF close in the system
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11:02 |
What do the Rockies do with Jose Reyes? Such a strange trade, are they still in loser denial? |
11:02 |
: Reyes was an alternative to Rockies ownership paying down Tulowitzki’s financial commitment. There’s enough demand for shortstops that Reyes could be flipped
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11:03 |
Jeff, what’s up buddy! Did the Mets wait too long to buy now that Rendon, Werth and Zimm are back? Should they just hold and hope the fan base doesn’t realize these two moves were for PR reasons not to actually win? |
11:03 |
: Still makes sense to add an outfielder. They can do that without touching the premium pieces in the system. More Nationals could get hurt. Some Mets could get hot. It’s worth trying for this
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11:05 |
I’ve also seen a certain prominent Mets blogger claim that the Mets should 100% absolutely pick up CarGo. Am I wrong to see Granderson minus a few years on the aging curve plus a few more injuries? |
11:06 |
: It’s been a big bounceback stretch for Gonzalez. He isn’t 30 yet — Granderson is 34 — and the next two years aren’t impossibly expensive. Give Gonzalez some more BABIP and he’s looking like his peak self
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11:07 |
: Valuable player. Maybe too expensive for the Mets to take on, but whoever gets him should like him
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11:08 |
Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura for Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Nimmo. Who hangs up first? |
11:09 |
: Brewers. The talent is appropriate, but Milwaukee wouldn’t want to exchange two of its best trade pieces for a couple pitchers going through injury rehab
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11:09 |
Are the Mets done making moves? Should they be? |
11:09 |
: I think they find a half-decent outfielder
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11:10 |
What do you see in Chris Taylor’s future? What kind of return would he bring? |
11:10 |
: I think he needs more power or glove. I don’t think they develop. Fringe everyday shortstop
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11:12 |
Papelbon to NYY a possibility? |
11:12 |
: Not really. No opportunity for him to close, other teams with a bigger need
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11:12 |
Why does everyone say the Yankees need to trade for a starter? They moved a perfectly good starter (Warren) to the ‘pen. Who would this starter even supplant? It seems they’re committed to keeping CC in the rotation anyway, no? |
11:13 |
: There’s talk they could demote CC to the bullpen, at least temporarily. I think this mostly has to do with unpredictability — it’s still hard to trust Tanaka and Pineda to both stay healthy
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11:16 |
Pirates fan here – is Gregory Polanco finally starting to click? He’s got a .274/.375/.429 slash in July. As someone who watches him every night, he’s also connecting with the ball better than I’ve ever seen, as confirmed by his season high Hard% and season low Soft%. Thoughts? One would think that an improved/improving Polanco is more helpful to the Pirates down the stretch (and obviously the future) than any rental acquisition. |
11:18 |
: It’s the first time Polanco has shown all of his skills at once. That much is greatly encouraging. And you’re right, if this is Polanco figuring things out, that does more for the Pirates than any reasonable move. The bad news is we have too much of a tendency to buy into hot streaks from young players, assuming they’ve figured it out. Sometimes it’s just a hot streak. But I’d say this is the most encouraging month Polanco has yet had in the major leagues
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11:18 |
: Probably someone to take a closer look at, after the deadline has passed and things calm down
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11:19 |
Do you think Scribner gets first crack at closing? |
11:19 |
: sure
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11:20 |
How many of your article ideas come from actually watching games versus just looking at stats? |
11:20 |
: Only infrequently do ideas come directly from watching a game
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11:20 |
Have you met David Cone? He is a big fan of yours and constantly references your work during Yankee broadcasts. |
11:20 |
: Never once!
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11:20 |
If you were a Rockie, would how Tulo was traded piss you off? |
11:21 |
: At first, yeah. But they all understand it’s a business, and they all are fully aware of the circumstances. They’ll be fine. It had to happen
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11:21 |
Cargo make some sense on the Cubs, and does he actually have all that much trade value? |
11:21 |
: Definitely, now. Kind of like Jay Bruce — hot streak has erased the memory of 2014
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11:21 |
So it’s DEFCON 3 on Zobrist right now. Is he KC bound, or what? |
11:21 |
: Impossible to pick. Too many options
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11:22 |
All the rumors are about Houstn going after another starting pitcher but to me it is clear that they need to at a corner bat of some sort. Do you think they add a bat? |
11:22 |
: I think they add a position player and a reliever
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11:22 |
Carlos Gonzalez on move now? Seattle Mariners go get him? |
11:22 |
: The Mariners aren’t good
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11:22 |
Any guess who the Nats will have to give up to get Papelbon? |
11:22 |
: Not very much
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11:22 |
What exactly are the Rockies going to do with Jose? Can’t see anyone giving up anything of value for him unless they pay a huge chunk of his contract. |
11:23 |
: Could be they flip him soon for a pricey veteran and a young player. Or, could be they give him a chance to establish some value in Colorado and then they try to trade him in December
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11:24 |
: Maybe the Rockies take a chance on James Shields’ strikeouts and send Reyes to San Diego
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11:25 |
AA said not likely to trade “core” position guys-not sure if that includes Travis or not. Where would you rate him now as far as a trade asset if AA were to consider moving him? |
11:25 |
: Travis is very young and highly valuable. Maybe a bit less valuable than his numbers, since scouts don’t love him, but there’s no good reason for the Blue Jays to exchange him for something else
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11:25 |
Okay! So the Jays just deal three prospects – including two “top ones” – for Tulowitzki. Their defense and bullpen are better, but the rotation is still a mess. What do they do next? |
11:26 |
: second-tier starting pitcher
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11:27 |
Do you think Ruben Amaro looked at the Tulo trade and finally realized why he’s not a GM anymore? |
11:27 |
: I doubt that things went exactly like that
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11:28 |
Does the glut of available closers keep the Reds from dealing Chapman? |
11:28 |
: I don’t think so — there are closers available, but the only *Chapman* closer available is Kimbrel, and he costs more. So the Reds hold the most valuable piece, and the most valuable piece will get a big return no matter the market
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11:28 |
Care to weigh in on the A’s closer situation? It seems like there are about 7 different guys that could conceivably get a shot. |
11:29 |
: I have to be completely honest with you: I couldn’t possibly imagine caring
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11:29 |
Do you think that the fullness of the relief market will make trading second tier guys like Jim Johnson before the deadline easier or more difficult? |
11:29 |
: Won’t get much. Someone will take the reliever, but not for much value
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11:29 |
Who is the best GM in the game in your opinion? |
11:30 |
: Oof. Friedman isn’t a GM, but he’s an executive, and I have to go with him considering what he did in Tampa Bay under impossible circumstances
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11:30 |
The White Sox seem to be undecided between selling and standing pat. What would you do in their position? |
11:31 |
: Basically, it’s about Samardzija. It depends on the offers that roll in. If there’s a really good offer, I take it, but otherwise, I’d probably just stand pat and accept the draft-pick compensation
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11:31 |
AA has traded for the best 3B and SS in baseball in the past 6 months. Also, the best rookie 2B. Should he be more appreciated? |
11:32 |
: He’s a persistent and tireless son of a bitch. Calls on everybody and just wears other executives down. Good skill to have!
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11:32 |
Jeff, do you think Iwakuma gets traded at the deadline? |
11:32 |
: Yes, unless the Mariners win the next three games
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11:35 |
For sake of argument assume Adam Lind plays tonight and rest of week to show the back thing was a minor issue (in context). What kind of trade value do you think he has? He’s shown he can be a regular 1B this year. Cheap option next year. |
11:36 |
: Just for the sake of recency, I think you’d be looking at a prospect similar in value to Miguel Castro
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11:37 |
: Maybe better than that, but you get the idea. Centerpiece would be a prospect somewhere in the 75 – 125 range, probably
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11:38 |
: Teams will like the power, but they’re aware of the injury issues and no one wants to pay full price for a platoon player who could be exploited in the playoffs
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11:38 |
Phillies asking for final offers on Hamels by tomorrow. Who does he make his next start for? |
11:38 |
: I’ll go with the Rangers. I think they’re the most likely to give up the main piece that the Phillies want
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11:38 |
I find it awesome and in a weird way slightly satisfying that Mr. Cameron was awoken from his slumber by a ringing phone/angry wife. A nice enough guy to work for I’m sure, just always comes off on these chats as slightly dickish. |
11:39 |
: He’s a fast typer and thinker. It takes time to mold a response into a tactful response
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11:39 |
Any Chance that Clippard’s lesser control (as you wrote yesterday) could have been the difference in league strike zones? It’s a REACH, but … |
11:39 |
: Doubt it. I’d be more likely to just buy it as a fluke, but he’s missing a lot of first-pitch strikes
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11:40 |
Do you think playing on turf is going to have a real effect on Tulerwitskis’s ability to stay on the fields? |
11:40 |
: If the turf caused him to get hurt, would we notice? Or would we just think, oh, Troy Tulowitzki is hurt?
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11:40 |
Do you think the Phillies end up getting multiple stud prospect for Hamels, that they lower their price a bit, or just hold on to him? |
11:41 |
: I think they get something similar to the Tulo return
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11:41 |
Do you think the Angels follow through and add another outfield bat and do you think the Astros add another starter or bat? |
11:41 |
: Angels will add an outfielder
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11:41 |
Over/under on how many Tulo trade questions you get today? I’ll give you a hint: I already have two precomposed. ;-p |
11:41 |
: In fairness: holy shit!
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11:41 |
oops. what do you think about retaliation in baseball? |
11:42 |
: Stupid, but all of us are animals
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11:42 |
: There’s always going to be retaliation, just as there’s always going to be anger. So if we have to accept that, we should at least be able to demand that retaliation be sufficiently controlled so as to avoid headhunting
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11:43 |
: It’s absurd but baseball’s unwritten-rule system kind of works to keep it in check
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11:43 |
One of my first thoughts on seeing the Tulo trade was that they’d also now be favorites to get Hamels, because he’d also be around for several years to complement Tulo/Martin. |
11:43 |
: I don’t live in Cole Hamels’ head but from everything I’ve read he doesn’t want to go to Canada
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11:44 |
You really think a package around Brad Miller could get Puig? |
11:44 |
: It would take more, but Miller would be the centerpiece
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11:45 |
How much of these Puig rumors do you think are nonsense? Guy is 24, not owed a lot of money, having a down year but had a 150 wRC+ last year. |
11:45 |
: I don’t see him going anywhere. No way do the Dodgers sell low on that guy
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11:46 |
: I 100% believe they’re listening, but with Puig’s stock down, the right offer won’t roll in
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11:48 |
Anything the Twins can/should do? I hate seeing KC make such a splash and that we are destined to fall into suckiness for the rest of the year… Seems like Hicks has been excellent lately, Sano has been quite a boost at DH, Ervin Santana has looked solid and Berrios should be up soon to help the Sp. Would acquiring someone like zobrist to assess our two biggest offensive weaknesses be foolish? And what would it cost? |
11:48 |
: So much for that! Ben Zobrist to the Royals, for Manaea and Brooks
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11:50 |
: As for the Twins, I think they’re surprised by their own success. The goal hasn’t been to build for 2015, so they wont’ want to subtract too much to add to this. But I think they end up adding a starting pitcher, of the No. 2/3 sort, just in case they get to the playoffs and don’t have Ervin Santana
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11:50 |
: We should talk about the Zobrist move now
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11:51 |
: Makes total sense for the Royals. They’re really going for it now. Pitching depth has been heavily depleted; Zobrist covers up the only remaining problem areas on the position-player side
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11:52 |
: For Oakland, Brooks is the big-league-ready, low-ceiling starter sort. Manaea, obviously, is the get. He’s recently gotten up to Double-A. Top-100 prospect, albeit in the lower half. Was sidetracked earlier by abdominal and groin issues
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11:53 |
How confident should we be in Cano’s recent resurgence (149 wRC+ in the last 181 PA)? Discipline/contact still seem to be problems, but he’s swapping grounders for fly balls and hitting the ball with more authority. |
11:53 |
: He’s good again. Didn’t make sense for him to struggle so bad, that fast.
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11:55 |
In part based on a recommendation you posted in a previous chat, I ate at Neighborhood before a Padres game over the weekend. It was excellent. Thank you for the recommendation. Where should I eat in Seattle? |
11:55 |
: Collins Pub, if you mean before a game
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11:55 |
Why would the Yankees want Ackley? |
11:55 |
: They’ve wanted him for a while. Easy buy-low
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11:55 |
Is Tulo going to be the best player traded this deadline? |
11:55 |
: Is he better than Cueto? Depends on your level of injury forgiveness.
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11:56 |
Seems like Reyes is likely to clear waivers. Could he be an August trade name? |
11:56 |
: Absolutely. Gives him a few weeks to hit in Colorado
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11:56 |
Ian Desmond reportedly turned down a 7 year, 105 million dollar deal in the offseason…. Ooops!! Could the Nats trade for Reyes since Desmond has been such a bust this year? |
11:56 |
: Espinosa’s been useful, and there’s help coming up through the system
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11:57 |
Think the Mets can make a playoff run with their team as currently composed? |
11:57 |
: Yes. Remember when they won 11 games in a row?
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11:57 |
Does Lorenzo Cain’s weird ass backstory mean there’s no sense in treating his development like anyone else’s? |
11:58 |
: Well, the more time you spend in the game, the more you resemble everyone else. Cain is unusual, but that doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate him like a baseball player
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11:58 |
Latos, Leake, Haren, Gallardo. Who gets the most back in a trade? |
11:58 |
: Gallardo by a tiny bit
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11:59 |
What’s the correct verbage to use with WAR? Is it “Trout *has* 6.3 WAR this year”? “Trout *has been worth* 6.3 WAR”? “Trout *has accumulated* 6.3 WAR”? Something else? |
11:59 |
: I’d go with “has been worth” but no matter what you use, people will know what you mean
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11:59 |
Is Jonathan Papelbon the least likable player in the league? AJ Pierzynski makes it tough to claim the crown but it’s hard to find much redeeming about Paps. |
11:59 |
: It’s Pierzynski
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11:59 |
In 2003, a half-season of Ugueth Urbina was traded for top-50 prospect Adrian Gonzalez + 2 other prospects. I’m so glad we’ve moved on from the heyday of closer valuation. |
12:01 |
: And then the Marlins won the World Series!
|
12:01 |
: In fairness to that one, Gonzalez wasn’t having much of a 2013, but still
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12:02 |
Do you think the package Colorado received suggests that the Mets could have made a better offer but money was ultimately the issue? |
12:02 |
: Money, and the Mets didn’t have an easy Hoffman comp. Wheeler’s hurt. Could’ve subtracted from the big-league rotation, but they don’t want to do that
|
12:02 |
On a scale of 1-Infinity, how stupid would it be for the Tigers t be buyers? |
12:03 |
: Depends on the buying. They don’t have much of a system to deplete
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12:04 |
How much better is Tulo than Reyes? Maybe a 5.5 win guy compared to a 3.7 win guy? And is it worth the prospects sacrificed? Money doesn’t seem like it was a big factor since both are signed long-term for big deals |
12:04 |
: I think Reyes is more like an average player at this point. Not 3-4 WAR
|
12:04 |
Is Iwakuma worth a qualifying offer this offseason if he doesn’t get moved? |
12:04 |
: Yep
|
12:05 |
Can Gerardo Parra be an everyday guy, or is someone going to grab him for a platoon? |
12:05 |
: Someone will grab him to be a regular, but they’ll still platoon him when facing tough lefties
|
12:06 |
Nelson Cruz has 1 GIDP all year. Is this one of the major reasons for his high WPA? |
12:07 |
: Biggest reason: he’s been an excellent hitter, and WPA doesn’t factor in defense
|
12:08 |
What would be the best volcano-themed nickname for a team in Portland? |
12:08 |
: Tremors?
|
12:08 |
Are the Yankees able to make any significant upgrades without trading Judge/Servino/Bird? |
12:08 |
: Absolutely
|
12:10 |
What was your all-time favorite deadline deal? Not necessarily the best one for your favorite team, just the one that excited you the most. |
12:10 |
: I loved what the Mariners got from the White Sox for Freddy Garcia. Alas, 🙁
|
12:11 |
Ruben Tejada has been worth 1.2 wins in 259 plate appearances. Is he underrated? |
12:11 |
: Probably not; he’s probably a below-average defensive shortstop
|
12:12 |
What are the chances the Mariners fire Zduriencik and hire someone who is actually good? |
12:12 |
: 10%
|
12:12 |
Phillies make a package around Hamels for Puig? |
12:12 |
: Don’t think the Dodgers want to add and subtract at the same time
|
12:12 |
If the Twins traded for Jose Reyes, which prospects do you think they’d have to give up? |
12:13 |
: Fairly insignificant ones, unless the Rockies ate a good amount of money
|
12:13 |
Do you think the reports that the Tigers are looking to buy are accurate? Their owner is really old and wants a WS, so I could buy it, although they’re not that great this year so I don’t know why they’d want to go for it. |
12:13 |
: They might figure they’re screwed regardless down the road, and for now there is high-level talent on the roster and a wild-card slot that isn’t too far away
|
12:14 |
Do we know if velocity for pitchers necessarily declines for all pitches, or is it just the fastball typically? And if the latter, do we know/suspect that pitchers intentionally drop the velocity of secondary pitches to work against the declining fastball? |
12:14 |
: Fastball is most visible, but all pitches decline in velocity slowly. Fastball drops a bit faster. I don’t think that pitchers intentionally slow down the other pitches to preserve the velocity gaps; it’s pretty minor year-to-year
|
12:15 |
From your perspective, who won the Clippard-to-Mets trade?? |
12:15 |
: I think the A’s did well, but I think the probability is also that Clippard does more for the Mets than Meisner does in the majors
|
12:15 |
What does a half decent outfielder do that Conforto doesn’t? I know Conforto isn’t a lock to be above average, but whats the difference in a 1WAR/600 vs 2WAR/600 over the remainder of the year? I was thinking big trade or bust, too bad Tulo is gone. |
12:16 |
: Conforto just hasn’t seen big-league pitchers. There are real adjustments there, and so Conforto could have all his weaknesses exploited. And then you factor in that he’s not a defensive plus
|
12:17 |
How do you balance the “All of Jack’s moves made sense at the time” talk, vs, the complete and utter lack of results? Can a team be this unlucky over the span of a decade? |
12:17 |
: I suspect there’s something critically wrong with the Mariners’ player-develop system
|
12:17 |
Is Randal Grichuk actually decent? He has contact issues, but batted ball data says he is hitting the ball very hard and very far. |
12:18 |
: All-or-nothing sort, but I can’t imagine him being in better hands than the Cardinals’
|
12:18 |
Who has the best chance of returning a big bat from Cincinnati’s trade pieces? Chapman, Leake, Byrd, or Bruce? |
12:18 |
: Chapman, by far
|
12:18 |
What’s the draw of OPS? Seems like two good (or decent at least) stats, but jamming them together seems random. Kind of like if we added FG% and FT% in basketball. |
12:18 |
: Quick, easy, gets the job done. Doesn’t correlate as well as, say, wOBA, but it comes mighty close
|
12:19 |
If you were starting an MLB baseball team and had the option of getting one of the following players, which would you take: (1) Matt Harvey; (2) Jose Fernandez? |
12:20 |
: Fernandez by a tiny bit
|
12:20 |
: I like that Fernandez is younger, but then Harvey might have a repertoire that will age better, on account of its breadth
|
12:21 |
If Tulo was traded last season, how much more would have he returned? |
12:21 |
: If he had sustained his performance through the deadline without getting hurt, then imagine, say, this same sort of package, but with Norris instead of Castro
|
12:22 |
Trades are coming fast now. You predict the next one will be…? |
12:22 |
: Looks like Papelbon
|
12:22 |
Who is the A’s 5th starter now? Pomeranz? Zito? |
12:22 |
: Brooks
|
12:23 |
If I understand correctly, the Rockies had to take Reyes (and his salary) for the Jays to part with Hoffman and Castro. But I’m hearing the Rockies will be able to flip Reyes, even for a mediocre return. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Jays to get rid of Reyes in a separate salary dump deal and give up less than Hoffman/Castro? |
12:23 |
: Rockies wanted to find a way to move Tulo for premium prospects. Without Hoffman/Castro, they would’ve looked somewhere else
|
12:24 |
Tigers are … buyers …. gasp. Ugh |
12:24 |
: Are you surprised?
|
12:24 |
Who do the Reds end up trading this week? |
12:24 |
: The players you think. No reason to keep Leake, they’ve been floating Bruce for a while, and Chapman might as well go on Friday morning
|
12:25 |
Who was happier: The average hunter-gatherer around 15,000 BCE in a relatively abundant area (say, the levant), or the average person in 2015? |
12:26 |
: Greater distance now between the extremes. We have more time than ever these days to think about ourselves. Used to be the priorities were eating and not getting killed by something ravenous. Simpler, differently-stressful existence
|
12:26 |
If Clippard got a top 10 prospect from the Mets, do you think Ziegler can yield something similar? He’s got one more year of control after this year, has been really good for three straight years now, and can “close”? |
12:26 |
: Ziegler would get a good return
|
12:26 |
Is Iwakuma really any good? I wouldn’t feel comfortable having him start a playoff game for my team…. |
12:26 |
: Yes, he is quite good
|
12:27 |
Does Ian Desmond have a future? |
12:27 |
: A lucrative one!
|
12:28 |
Are you surprised by the returns for the bigger names traded this week? |
12:28 |
: Not really. They all make sense, or at least they have so far. I wasn’t expecting this kind of activity before the 30th/31st, though
|
12:28 |
Javier Baez centered package for Carlos Gonzalez (Cubs pay all contract). Fair deal? |
12:28 |
: Super interesting. I’d probably do it if I were Colorado
|
12:29 |
Any chance the A’s try to trade Sonny Gray? |
12:29 |
: No, accompanied by the necessary Donaldson caveat. So, a soft no
|
12:29 |
The opinion about the Tulo trade seems to have changed overnight. Shouldn’t taking on Reyes’ awful contract have gotten them a better prospect package (Atleast Dalton Pompey) |
12:30 |
: The alternative to taking on the contract was paying Tulowitzki down. I don’t think the Rockies did *great* but I think they did well enough
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12:31 |
What’re your thoughts on the embracingly ironic “treat minor stories/pop culture events as life and death matters” culture of many of today’s journalism outlets? Is this actually a “new” fad, or am I just getting old enough to notice it? Sorry this question isn’t at all about baseball, I’ve just always admired your ability to remain genuine and avoid hyperbolic humor, unlike many “internet personalities.” |
12:31 |
: I hate it
|
12:31 |
: I don’t know the history of it, but I hate it, and it’s ever so tired, and the majority of the internet is loathsome
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12:32 |
: Ditto television/magazines/etc. Outlets that cover entertainment should always remember that they’re covering entertainment, and none of us are necessary
|
12:32 |
Why aren’t the Mariners bringing up Montero and getting rid of Morrison? |
12:32 |
: They want Montero to keep getting more work at first base
|
12:33 |
What are the hardest player names for you to spell? |
12:33 |
: I’ve gotten good at all the player names, but more than half the time I write “the” as “teh”
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12:34 |
Which team(s) that is/are buying do you think should be selling or standing pat? |
12:34 |
: I think the Tigers should spend more time exploring the David Price market, given how badly their pitching sucks
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12:34 |
Lot of good-for-both-teams trades this deadline, huh? Zobrist deal too — A’s got back a pitcher, so riskier, but better player than what they dealt for him, and Royals got a very good player at a place they had a huge hole |
12:35 |
: I think we’re mostly beyond lopsided trades. Every team is getting smarter, and most of them think in the same ways. So it’s harder to take advantage of someone
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12:35 |
who am i? |
12:35 |
: I can’t even imagine next year’s version
|
12:35 |
Surprised by what KC gave up? Or is Manaea’s stock that far down? |
12:35 |
: This is about right. Manaea is a good prospect, and Zobrist is a rental, but he’s a *good* rental with a huge market.
|
12:36 |
CarGo would have been better for the Royals .. no? |
12:36 |
: Zobrist helps at multiple positions and comes with no future commitment
|
12:37 |
Does it really make sense? KC already almost has a playoff spot locked up, is a slightly better WS odds worth long term assets for a team in their situation? Is it ever worth going from 10 to say 11% WS odds? |
12:39 |
: I think they pretty clearly haven’t gotten over the way that they lost last October. There’s the sense of unfinished business, and there’s no telling when they’ll have another chance like this one again. This will have a real effect on the organizational future, but if you think about the odds too much you’ll never make a big midseason move. The Royals are getting as strong as they can. Guarantees nothing at all. But they’ve identified that this is their year
|
12:39 |
would the cubs have to give up much to get shields and his full contract? what remains is basically what they offered him in the off-season. |
12:39 |
: Shields, with his contract, would be just about free
|
12:39 |
Do the Royals think their window is closing after this season? They still have Gordon for at least 2016 right? |
12:40 |
: Gordon can leave after this year, and he probably will
|
12:40 |
: Maybe another playoff run could change his mind
|
12:40 |
It makes sense for the Royals to target another mid-level SP still, right? |
12:40 |
: Wouldn’t be a bad idea
|
12:40 |
“The Gyorko Store Called” Is the greatest name in the history of Fangraphs chats. |
12:40 |
Iwakuma is starting tonight at 1010 PM. Does he get traded before then? What are the Mariners looking for? |
12:40 |
: Maybe one more start, to prove he’s healthy and good again
|
12:41 |
: Mariners would be looking for anything, around the AA/AAA levels. Have needs at a lot of positions
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12:41 |
: All right, I need to get rolling
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12:42 |
: Can’t predict when something else is going to happen!
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12:42 |
: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next Friday at the normal time, and until then, be well and have great days
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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
No chat today or what?