Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/15

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously this is quite late, but I wasn’t planning on having Troy Tulowitzki get traded

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: So I had to finish writing about that before I could start this. But now that’s done! So I’ll be with you just as soon as I’m done tweeting that link and this link

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: OK!

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: By the way, I’ve swapped with Kiley this week because he wasn’t available today, but he will be on Friday.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Back to normal for me, next week

10:48
Comment From Sirras
Hi Jeff!

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Hey!

10:48
Comment From andy
do you have any idea what time it is young man

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Blame the Rockies

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I feel bad for Dave, who’s sick, and who was woken up in the middle of the night by his wife because his phone was going crazy

10:49
Comment From Jon M.
Do we see Trevor Story this year or will he make his first appearance in ’16?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Working against him is that he isn’t on the 40-man

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: But this is really quite simple. Follow Jose Reyes!

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: If Reyes gets flipped, they’ll take a look at Story. If Reyes is more of a winter trade candidate, then Story will be delayed until next May or June

10:51
Comment From Trapper
I would like for my team to trade for Puig, as I am sure most fans would. I happen to be a Mariners fan. What package could the Mariners put together for this polemically awesome player?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Andrew Friedman has been a big Brad Miller fan before, so you could float his name and gauge the response

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: The problem then is the Mariners finding a shortstop. Maybe Taylor, maybe Marte, but evaluators don’t buy them

10:53
Comment From Marcus Banks
Who can the Yankees realistically get without giving up Judge/Sev/Bird?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: They could probably add Iwakuma and Ackley without touching those guys

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like if top prospects go, this deadline, it’s only for an elite-level return

10:55
Comment From Allen
SSS be damned, Zunino seems to be clearly improved since Edgar tried his hand at hitting instruction. Can I be cautiously optimistic?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Zunino OPS, pre-Edgar: .548
Zunino OPS, post-Edgar: .552

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Things have been better the last few days, and these things take time, but it’s not the first instance of Zunino showing signs of life. The others haven’t panned out

10:56
Comment From Nick
Papelbon to the Nationals make sense at all?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: They clearly want to upgrade their bullpen. If Papelbon is really being a stickler about wanting to close, that’s a factor, but Storen could accept a temporary demotion. They’d both be important

10:58
Comment From Sirras
I have seen Mets fans claim (A) that Tulo should be more easily acquired now because the Mets could simply trade pitchers to the Blue Jays, and alternatively (B) that the Mets should try to trade for Reyes, because there is no way Colorado actually intends to keep him. Am I missing something or are both of these ideas just wrong?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, maybe Toronto has more use than Colorado for young pitchers who are good *right now*. But the Jays didn’t get baseball’s best shortstop so that they could move him somewhere else

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: As for Reyes, I’m sure he is available, but I’m also unsure he’s that much of an upgrade at this point, and he’s expensive. He’s not long for Colorado, but remember that the Mets want better up-the-middle defense, and the Jays grew tired of Reyes because of his defense

11:00
Comment From Home Sick
Thoughts on Robbie Ray?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I like him! Real, meaningful progress http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

11:01
Comment From Bobby Flay
Would you rather trade a B+ prospect for Iwakuma or Shields, assuming no money goes along with the deal?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Iwakuma. Shields probably has negative value

11:01
Comment From merv throneberry
Hi Jeff…is Ketel Marte’s move to CF an indication that Austin Jackson is on the way out?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes. Even if not this week, Jackson is gone in a few months and there’s no CF close in the system

11:02
Comment From cmg8462
What do the Rockies do with Jose Reyes? Such a strange trade, are they still in loser denial?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Reyes was an alternative to Rockies ownership paying down Tulowitzki’s financial commitment. There’s enough demand for shortstops that Reyes could be flipped

11:03
Comment From Scott
Jeff, what’s up buddy! Did the Mets wait too long to buy now that Rendon, Werth and Zimm are back? Should they just hold and hope the fan base doesn’t realize these two moves were for PR reasons not to actually win?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Still makes sense to add an outfielder. They can do that without touching the premium pieces in the system. More Nationals could get hurt. Some Mets could get hot. It’s worth trying for this

11:05
Comment From Sirras
I’ve also seen a certain prominent Mets blogger claim that the Mets should 100% absolutely pick up CarGo. Am I wrong to see Granderson minus a few years on the aging curve plus a few more injuries?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: It’s been a big bounceback stretch for Gonzalez. He isn’t 30 yet — Granderson is 34 — and the next two years aren’t impossibly expensive. Give Gonzalez some more BABIP and he’s looking like his peak self

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Valuable player. Maybe too expensive for the Mets to take on, but whoever gets him should like him

11:08
Comment From Sandy Balder-son
Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura for Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Nimmo. Who hangs up first?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Brewers. The talent is appropriate, but Milwaukee wouldn’t want to exchange two of its best trade pieces for a couple pitchers going through injury rehab

11:09
Comment From Joe
Are the Mets done making moves? Should they be?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I think they find a half-decent outfielder

11:10
Comment From Criss Angel Carter
What do you see in Chris Taylor’s future? What kind of return would he bring?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: I think he needs more power or glove. I don’t think they develop. Fringe everyday shortstop

11:12
Comment From Marcus Banks
Papelbon to NYY a possibility?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Not really. No opportunity for him to close, other teams with a bigger need

11:12
Comment From Dmitry
Why does everyone say the Yankees need to trade for a starter? They moved a perfectly good starter (Warren) to the ‘pen. Who would this starter even supplant? It seems they’re committed to keeping CC in the rotation anyway, no?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: There’s talk they could demote CC to the bullpen, at least temporarily. I think this mostly has to do with unpredictability — it’s still hard to trust Tanaka and Pineda to both stay healthy

11:16
Comment From Zach
Pirates fan here – is Gregory Polanco finally starting to click? He’s got a .274/.375/.429 slash in July. As someone who watches him every night, he’s also connecting with the ball better than I’ve ever seen, as confirmed by his season high Hard% and season low Soft%. Thoughts? One would think that an improved/improving Polanco is more helpful to the Pirates down the stretch (and obviously the future) than any rental acquisition.

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: It’s the first time Polanco has shown all of his skills at once. That much is greatly encouraging. And you’re right, if this is Polanco figuring things out, that does more for the Pirates than any reasonable move. The bad news is we have too much of a tendency to buy into hot streaks from young players, assuming they’ve figured it out. Sometimes it’s just a hot streak. But I’d say this is the most encouraging month Polanco has yet had in the major leagues

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Probably someone to take a closer look at, after the deadline has passed and things calm down

11:19
Comment From Home Sick
Do you think Scribner gets first crack at closing?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: sure

11:20
Comment From CameronDaClub
How many of your article ideas come from actually watching games versus just looking at stats?

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Only infrequently do ideas come directly from watching a game

11:20
Comment From Marcus Banks
Have you met David Cone? He is a big fan of yours and constantly references your work during Yankee broadcasts.

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Never once!

11:20
Comment From Scott
If you were a Rockie, would how Tulo was traded piss you off?

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: At first, yeah. But they all understand it’s a business, and they all are fully aware of the circumstances. They’ll be fine. It had to happen

11:21
Comment From Ryan
Cargo make some sense on the Cubs, and does he actually have all that much trade value?

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely, now. Kind of like Jay Bruce — hot streak has erased the memory of 2014

11:21
Comment From Cerg
So it’s DEFCON 3 on Zobrist right now. Is he KC bound, or what?

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Impossible to pick. Too many options

11:22
Comment From Rob
All the rumors are about Houstn going after another starting pitcher but to me it is clear that they need to at a corner bat of some sort. Do you think they add a bat?

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think they add a position player and a reliever

11:22
Comment From Doug
Carlos Gonzalez on move now? Seattle Mariners go get him?

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners aren’t good

11:22
Comment From Dan F
Any guess who the Nats will have to give up to get Papelbon?

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: Not very much

11:22
Comment From Sean
What exactly are the Rockies going to do with Jose? Can’t see anyone giving up anything of value for him unless they pay a huge chunk of his contract.

11:23
Jeff Sullivan: Could be they flip him soon for a pricey veteran and a young player. Or, could be they give him a chance to establish some value in Colorado and then they try to trade him in December

11:24
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Rockies take a chance on James Shields’ strikeouts and send Reyes to San Diego

11:25
Comment From James
AA said not likely to trade “core” position guys-not sure if that includes Travis or not. Where would you rate him now as far as a trade asset if AA were to consider moving him?

11:25
Jeff Sullivan: Travis is very young and highly valuable. Maybe a bit less valuable than his numbers, since scouts don’t love him, but there’s no good reason for the Blue Jays to exchange him for something else

11:25
Comment From Bret
Okay! So the Jays just deal three prospects – including two “top ones” – for Tulowitzki. Their defense and bullpen are better, but the rotation is still a mess. What do they do next?

11:26
Jeff Sullivan: second-tier starting pitcher

11:27
Comment From Nick
Do you think Ruben Amaro looked at the Tulo trade and finally realized why he’s not a GM anymore?

11:27
Jeff Sullivan: I doubt that things went exactly like that

11:28
Comment From The Average Sports Fan
Does the glut of available closers keep the Reds from dealing Chapman?

11:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so — there are closers available, but the only *Chapman* closer available is Kimbrel, and he costs more. So the Reds hold the most valuable piece, and the most valuable piece will get a big return no matter the market

11:28
Comment From Mark
Care to weigh in on the A’s closer situation? It seems like there are about 7 different guys that could conceivably get a shot.

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: I have to be completely honest with you: I couldn’t possibly imagine caring

11:29
Comment From Jimbo
Do you think that the fullness of the relief market will make trading second tier guys like Jim Johnson before the deadline easier or more difficult?

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: Won’t get much. Someone will take the reliever, but not for much value

11:29
Comment From Mikey
Who is the best GM in the game in your opinion?

11:30
Jeff Sullivan: Oof. Friedman isn’t a GM, but he’s an executive, and I have to go with him considering what he did in Tampa Bay under impossible circumstances

11:30
Comment From Eric
The White Sox seem to be undecided between selling and standing pat. What would you do in their position?

11:31
Jeff Sullivan: Basically, it’s about Samardzija. It depends on the offers that roll in. If there’s a really good offer, I take it, but otherwise, I’d probably just stand pat and accept the draft-pick compensation

11:31
Comment From BK
AA has traded for the best 3B and SS in baseball in the past 6 months. Also, the best rookie 2B. Should he be more appreciated?

11:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a persistent and tireless son of a bitch. Calls on everybody and just wears other executives down. Good skill to have!

11:32
Comment From Austin G
Jeff, do you think Iwakuma gets traded at the deadline?

11:32
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, unless the Mariners win the next three games

11:35
Comment From Derek
For sake of argument assume Adam Lind plays tonight and rest of week to show the back thing was a minor issue (in context). What kind of trade value do you think he has? He’s shown he can be a regular 1B this year. Cheap option next year.

11:36
Jeff Sullivan: Just for the sake of recency, I think you’d be looking at a prospect similar in value to Miguel Castro

11:37
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe better than that, but you get the idea. Centerpiece would be a prospect somewhere in the 75 – 125 range, probably

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: Teams will like the power, but they’re aware of the injury issues and no one wants to pay full price for a platoon player who could be exploited in the playoffs

11:38
Comment From Timber
Phillies asking for final offers on Hamels by tomorrow. Who does he make his next start for?

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with the Rangers. I think they’re the most likely to give up the main piece that the Phillies want

11:38
Comment From Jeff in T.O.
I find it awesome and in a weird way slightly satisfying that Mr. Cameron was awoken from his slumber by a ringing phone/angry wife. A nice enough guy to work for I’m sure, just always comes off on these chats as slightly dickish.

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fast typer and thinker. It takes time to mold a response into a tactful response

11:39
Comment From Desperate Met Fan
Any Chance that Clippard’s lesser control (as you wrote yesterday) could have been the difference in league strike zones? It’s a REACH, but …

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it. I’d be more likely to just buy it as a fluke, but he’s missing a lot of first-pitch strikes

11:40
Comment From Mike Francesa
Do you think playing on turf is going to have a real effect on Tulerwitskis’s ability to stay on the fields?

11:40
Jeff Sullivan: If the turf caused him to get hurt, would we notice? Or would we just think, oh, Troy Tulowitzki is hurt?

11:40
Comment From Andrew Patrick
Do you think the Phillies end up getting multiple stud prospect for Hamels, that they lower their price a bit, or just hold on to him?

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: I think they get something similar to the Tulo return

11:41
Comment From Ben
Do you think the Angels follow through and add another outfield bat and do you think the Astros add another starter or bat?

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: Angels will add an outfielder

11:41
Comment From Aunt Jessie
Over/under on how many Tulo trade questions you get today? I’ll give you a hint: I already have two precomposed. ;-p

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness: holy shit!

11:41
Comment From steven
oops. what do you think about retaliation in baseball?

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: Stupid, but all of us are animals

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: There’s always going to be retaliation, just as there’s always going to be anger. So if we have to accept that, we should at least be able to demand that retaliation be sufficiently controlled so as to avoid headhunting

11:43
Jeff Sullivan: It’s absurd but baseball’s unwritten-rule system kind of works to keep it in check

11:43
Comment From Aunt Jessie
One of my first thoughts on seeing the Tulo trade was that they’d also now be favorites to get Hamels, because he’d also be around for several years to complement Tulo/Martin.

11:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t live in Cole Hamels’ head but from everything I’ve read he doesn’t want to go to Canada

11:44
Comment From Shawn
You really think a package around Brad Miller could get Puig?

11:44
Jeff Sullivan: It would take more, but Miller would be the centerpiece

11:45
Comment From Gregory
How much of these Puig rumors do you think are nonsense? Guy is 24, not owed a lot of money, having a down year but had a 150 wRC+ last year.

11:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see him going anywhere. No way do the Dodgers sell low on that guy

11:46
Jeff Sullivan: I 100% believe they’re listening, but with Puig’s stock down, the right offer won’t roll in

11:48
Comment From Minnesota Ben
Anything the Twins can/should do? I hate seeing KC make such a splash and that we are destined to fall into suckiness for the rest of the year… Seems like Hicks has been excellent lately, Sano has been quite a boost at DH, Ervin Santana has looked solid and Berrios should be up soon to help the Sp. Would acquiring someone like zobrist to assess our two biggest offensive weaknesses be foolish? And what would it cost?

11:48
Jeff Sullivan: So much for that! Ben Zobrist to the Royals, for Manaea and Brooks

11:50
Jeff Sullivan: As for the Twins, I think they’re surprised by their own success. The goal hasn’t been to build for 2015, so they wont’ want to subtract too much to add to this. But I think they end up adding a starting pitcher, of the No. 2/3 sort, just in case they get to the playoffs and don’t have Ervin Santana

11:50
Jeff Sullivan: We should talk about the Zobrist move now

11:51
Jeff Sullivan: Makes total sense for the Royals. They’re really going for it now. Pitching depth has been heavily depleted; Zobrist covers up the only remaining problem areas on the position-player side

11:52
Jeff Sullivan: For Oakland, Brooks is the big-league-ready, low-ceiling starter sort. Manaea, obviously, is the get. He’s recently gotten up to Double-A. Top-100 prospect, albeit in the lower half. Was sidetracked earlier by abdominal and groin issues

11:53
Comment From Sweet Lou
How confident should we be in Cano’s recent resurgence (149 wRC+ in the last 181 PA)? Discipline/contact still seem to be problems, but he’s swapping grounders for fly balls and hitting the ball with more authority.

11:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s good again. Didn’t make sense for him to struggle so bad, that fast.

11:55
Comment From The Gyorko Store Called
In part based on a recommendation you posted in a previous chat, I ate at Neighborhood before a Padres game over the weekend. It was excellent. Thank you for the recommendation. Where should I eat in Seattle?

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: Collins Pub, if you mean before a game

11:55
Comment From Joe McMahon
Why would the Yankees want Ackley?

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve wanted him for a while. Easy buy-low

11:55
Comment From Shawn
Is Tulo going to be the best player traded this deadline?

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: Is he better than Cueto? Depends on your level of injury forgiveness.

11:56
Comment From Colin
Seems like Reyes is likely to clear waivers. Could he be an August trade name?

11:56
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely. Gives him a few weeks to hit in Colorado

11:56
Comment From Eddie Gaedel
Ian Desmond reportedly turned down a 7 year, 105 million dollar deal in the offseason…. Ooops!! Could the Nats trade for Reyes since Desmond has been such a bust this year?

11:56
Jeff Sullivan: Espinosa’s been useful, and there’s help coming up through the system

11:57
Comment From Gabe
Think the Mets can make a playoff run with their team as currently composed?

11:57
Jeff Sullivan: Yes. Remember when they won 11 games in a row?

11:57
Comment From Mark
Does Lorenzo Cain’s weird ass backstory mean there’s no sense in treating his development like anyone else’s?

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: Well, the more time you spend in the game, the more you resemble everyone else. Cain is unusual, but that doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate him like a baseball player

11:58
Comment From rhayex
Latos, Leake, Haren, Gallardo. Who gets the most back in a trade?

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: Gallardo by a tiny bit

11:59
Comment From CameronDaClub
What’s the correct verbage to use with WAR? Is it “Trout *has* 6.3 WAR this year”? “Trout *has been worth* 6.3 WAR”? “Trout *has accumulated* 6.3 WAR”? Something else?

11:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’d go with “has been worth” but no matter what you use, people will know what you mean

11:59
Comment From Marcus A.
Is Jonathan Papelbon the least likable player in the league? AJ Pierzynski makes it tough to claim the crown but it’s hard to find much redeeming about Paps.

11:59
Jeff Sullivan: It’s Pierzynski

11:59
Comment From Gabe
In 2003, a half-season of Ugueth Urbina was traded for top-50 prospect Adrian Gonzalez + 2 other prospects. I’m so glad we’ve moved on from the heyday of closer valuation.

12:01
Jeff Sullivan: And then the Marlins won the World Series!

12:01
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness to that one, Gonzalez wasn’t having much of a 2013, but still

12:02
Comment From Matt
Do you think the package Colorado received suggests that the Mets could have made a better offer but money was ultimately the issue?

12:02
Jeff Sullivan: Money, and the Mets didn’t have an easy Hoffman comp. Wheeler’s hurt. Could’ve subtracted from the big-league rotation, but they don’t want to do that

12:02
Comment From Bill (Parts Unkown)
On a scale of 1-Infinity, how stupid would it be for the Tigers t be buyers?

12:03
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the buying. They don’t have much of a system to deplete

12:04
Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr.
How much better is Tulo than Reyes? Maybe a 5.5 win guy compared to a 3.7 win guy? And is it worth the prospects sacrificed? Money doesn’t seem like it was a big factor since both are signed long-term for big deals

12:04
Jeff Sullivan: I think Reyes is more like an average player at this point. Not 3-4 WAR

12:04
Comment From Marcus A.
Is Iwakuma worth a qualifying offer this offseason if he doesn’t get moved?

12:04
Jeff Sullivan: Yep

12:05
Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr.
Can Gerardo Parra be an everyday guy, or is someone going to grab him for a platoon?

12:05
Jeff Sullivan: Someone will grab him to be a regular, but they’ll still platoon him when facing tough lefties

12:06
Comment From hcoguybrush
Nelson Cruz has 1 GIDP all year. Is this one of the major reasons for his high WPA?

12:07
Jeff Sullivan: Biggest reason: he’s been an excellent hitter, and WPA doesn’t factor in defense

12:08
Comment From The Gyorko Store Called
What would be the best volcano-themed nickname for a team in Portland?

12:08
Jeff Sullivan: Tremors?

12:08
Comment From Sam
Are the Yankees able to make any significant upgrades without trading Judge/Servino/Bird?

12:08
Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely

12:10
Comment From The Gyorko Store Called
What was your all-time favorite deadline deal? Not necessarily the best one for your favorite team, just the one that excited you the most.

12:10
Jeff Sullivan: I loved what the Mariners got from the White Sox for Freddy Garcia. Alas, 🙁

12:11
Comment From Matt
Ruben Tejada has been worth 1.2 wins in 259 plate appearances. Is he underrated?

12:11
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not; he’s probably a below-average defensive shortstop

12:12
Comment From Mariner John
What are the chances the Mariners fire Zduriencik and hire someone who is actually good?

12:12
Jeff Sullivan: 10%

12:12
Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr.
Phillies make a package around Hamels for Puig?

12:12
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Dodgers want to add and subtract at the same time

12:12
Comment From Redstorm
If the Twins traded for Jose Reyes, which prospects do you think they’d have to give up?

12:13
Jeff Sullivan: Fairly insignificant ones, unless the Rockies ate a good amount of money

12:13
Comment From rhayex
Do you think the reports that the Tigers are looking to buy are accurate? Their owner is really old and wants a WS, so I could buy it, although they’re not that great this year so I don’t know why they’d want to go for it.

12:13
Jeff Sullivan: They might figure they’re screwed regardless down the road, and for now there is high-level talent on the roster and a wild-card slot that isn’t too far away

12:14
Comment From Phil
Do we know if velocity for pitchers necessarily declines for all pitches, or is it just the fastball typically? And if the latter, do we know/suspect that pitchers intentionally drop the velocity of secondary pitches to work against the declining fastball?

12:14
Jeff Sullivan: Fastball is most visible, but all pitches decline in velocity slowly. Fastball drops a bit faster. I don’t think that pitchers intentionally slow down the other pitches to preserve the velocity gaps; it’s pretty minor year-to-year

12:15
Comment From Austin G
From your perspective, who won the Clippard-to-Mets trade??

12:15
Jeff Sullivan: I think the A’s did well, but I think the probability is also that Clippard does more for the Mets than Meisner does in the majors

12:15
Comment From cmg8462
What does a half decent outfielder do that Conforto doesn’t? I know Conforto isn’t a lock to be above average, but whats the difference in a 1WAR/600 vs 2WAR/600 over the remainder of the year? I was thinking big trade or bust, too bad Tulo is gone.

12:16
Jeff Sullivan: Conforto just hasn’t seen big-league pitchers. There are real adjustments there, and so Conforto could have all his weaknesses exploited. And then you factor in that he’s not a defensive plus

12:17
Comment From BSeattle
How do you balance the “All of Jack’s moves made sense at the time” talk, vs, the complete and utter lack of results? Can a team be this unlucky over the span of a decade?

12:17
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect there’s something critically wrong with the Mariners’ player-develop system

12:17
Comment From Matt
Is Randal Grichuk actually decent? He has contact issues, but batted ball data says he is hitting the ball very hard and very far.

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: All-or-nothing sort, but I can’t imagine him being in better hands than the Cardinals’

12:18
Comment From Alex
Who has the best chance of returning a big bat from Cincinnati’s trade pieces? Chapman, Leake, Byrd, or Bruce?

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: Chapman, by far

12:18
Comment From Ruben Tomorrow Jr.
What’s the draw of OPS? Seems like two good (or decent at least) stats, but jamming them together seems random. Kind of like if we added FG% and FT% in basketball.

12:18
Jeff Sullivan: Quick, easy, gets the job done. Doesn’t correlate as well as, say, wOBA, but it comes mighty close

12:19
Comment From STiVo
If you were starting an MLB baseball team and had the option of getting one of the following players, which would you take: (1) Matt Harvey; (2) Jose Fernandez?

12:20
Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez by a tiny bit

12:20
Jeff Sullivan: I like that Fernandez is younger, but then Harvey might have a repertoire that will age better, on account of its breadth

12:21
Comment From Guest
If Tulo was traded last season, how much more would have he returned?

12:21
Jeff Sullivan: If he had sustained his performance through the deadline without getting hurt, then imagine, say, this same sort of package, but with Norris instead of Castro

12:22
Comment From You Can Put in on the Board
Trades are coming fast now. You predict the next one will be…?

12:22
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like Papelbon

12:22
Comment From Adam
Who is the A’s 5th starter now? Pomeranz? Zito?

12:22
Jeff Sullivan: Brooks

12:23
Comment From Dan
If I understand correctly, the Rockies had to take Reyes (and his salary) for the Jays to part with Hoffman and Castro. But I’m hearing the Rockies will be able to flip Reyes, even for a mediocre return. Wouldn’t it have made more sense for the Jays to get rid of Reyes in a separate salary dump deal and give up less than Hoffman/Castro?

12:23
Jeff Sullivan: Rockies wanted to find a way to move Tulo for premium prospects. Without Hoffman/Castro, they would’ve looked somewhere else

12:24
Comment From Houzer
Tigers are … buyers …. gasp. Ugh

12:24
Jeff Sullivan: Are you surprised?

12:24
Comment From Nomde
Who do the Reds end up trading this week?

12:24
Jeff Sullivan: The players you think. No reason to keep Leake, they’ve been floating Bruce for a while, and Chapman might as well go on Friday morning

12:25
Comment From STiVo
Who was happier: The average hunter-gatherer around 15,000 BCE in a relatively abundant area (say, the levant), or the average person in 2015?

12:26
Jeff Sullivan: Greater distance now between the extremes. We have more time than ever these days to think about ourselves. Used to be the priorities were eating and not getting killed by something ravenous. Simpler, differently-stressful existence

12:26
Comment From Sean
If Clippard got a top 10 prospect from the Mets, do you think Ziegler can yield something similar? He’s got one more year of control after this year, has been really good for three straight years now, and can “close”?

12:26
Jeff Sullivan: Ziegler would get a good return

12:26
Comment From Hank
Is Iwakuma really any good? I wouldn’t feel comfortable having him start a playoff game for my team….

12:26
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, he is quite good

12:27
Comment From SW
Does Ian Desmond have a future?

12:27
Jeff Sullivan: A lucrative one!

12:28
Comment From Danny
Are you surprised by the returns for the bigger names traded this week?

12:28
Jeff Sullivan: Not really. They all make sense, or at least they have so far. I wasn’t expecting this kind of activity before the 30th/31st, though

12:28
Comment From Eddie Gaedel
Javier Baez centered package for Carlos Gonzalez (Cubs pay all contract). Fair deal?

12:28
Jeff Sullivan: Super interesting. I’d probably do it if I were Colorado

12:29
Comment From Nobody Important
Any chance the A’s try to trade Sonny Gray?

12:29
Jeff Sullivan: No, accompanied by the necessary Donaldson caveat. So, a soft no

12:29
Comment From Jeet
The opinion about the Tulo trade seems to have changed overnight. Shouldn’t taking on Reyes’ awful contract have gotten them a better prospect package (Atleast Dalton Pompey)

12:30
Jeff Sullivan: The alternative to taking on the contract was paying Tulowitzki down. I don’t think the Rockies did *great* but I think they did well enough

12:31
Comment From CameronDaClub
What’re your thoughts on the embracingly ironic “treat minor stories/pop culture events as life and death matters” culture of many of today’s journalism outlets? Is this actually a “new” fad, or am I just getting old enough to notice it? Sorry this question isn’t at all about baseball, I’ve just always admired your ability to remain genuine and avoid hyperbolic humor, unlike many “internet personalities.”

12:31
Jeff Sullivan: I hate it

12:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the history of it, but I hate it, and it’s ever so tired, and the majority of the internet is loathsome

12:32
Jeff Sullivan: Ditto television/magazines/etc. Outlets that cover entertainment should always remember that they’re covering entertainment, and none of us are necessary

12:32
Comment From Hyped
Why aren’t the Mariners bringing up Montero and getting rid of Morrison?

12:32
Jeff Sullivan: They want Montero to keep getting more work at first base

12:33
Comment From Aunt Jessie
What are the hardest player names for you to spell?

12:33
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve gotten good at all the player names, but more than half the time I write “the” as “teh”

12:34
Comment From Daniel C
Which team(s) that is/are buying do you think should be selling or standing pat?

12:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Tigers should spend more time exploring the David Price market, given how badly their pitching sucks

12:34
Comment From Catoblepas
Lot of good-for-both-teams trades this deadline, huh? Zobrist deal too — A’s got back a pitcher, so riskier, but better player than what they dealt for him, and Royals got a very good player at a place they had a huge hole

12:35
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re mostly beyond lopsided trades. Every team is getting smarter, and most of them think in the same ways. So it’s harder to take advantage of someone

12:35
Comment From The 2017 Royals Rotation…
who am i?

12:35
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even imagine next year’s version

12:35
Comment From Taylor
Surprised by what KC gave up? Or is Manaea’s stock that far down?

12:35
Jeff Sullivan: This is about right. Manaea is a good prospect, and Zobrist is a rental, but he’s a *good* rental with a huge market.

12:36
Comment From Houzer
CarGo would have been better for the Royals .. no?

12:36
Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist helps at multiple positions and comes with no future commitment

12:37
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Does it really make sense? KC already almost has a playoff spot locked up, is a slightly better WS odds worth long term assets for a team in their situation? Is it ever worth going from 10 to say 11% WS odds?

12:39
Jeff Sullivan: I think they pretty clearly haven’t gotten over the way that they lost last October. There’s the sense of unfinished business, and there’s no telling when they’ll have another chance like this one again. This will have a real effect on the organizational future, but if you think about the odds too much you’ll never make a big midseason move. The Royals are getting as strong as they can. Guarantees nothing at all. But they’ve identified that this is their year

12:39
Comment From klof
would the cubs have to give up much to get shields and his full contract? what remains is basically what they offered him in the off-season.

12:39
Jeff Sullivan: Shields, with his contract, would be just about free

12:39
Comment From Timothy
Do the Royals think their window is closing after this season? They still have Gordon for at least 2016 right?

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: Gordon can leave after this year, and he probably will

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe another playoff run could change his mind

12:40
Comment From Gila Monster
It makes sense for the Royals to target another mid-level SP still, right?

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be a bad idea

12:40
Comment From The Big Dipper
“The Gyorko Store Called” Is the greatest name in the history of Fangraphs chats.

12:40
Comment From Hyped
Iwakuma is starting tonight at 1010 PM. Does he get traded before then? What are the Mariners looking for?

12:40
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe one more start, to prove he’s healthy and good again

12:41
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners would be looking for anything, around the AA/AAA levels. Have needs at a lot of positions

12:41
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

12:42
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t predict when something else is going to happen!

12:42
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next Friday at the normal time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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