Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/8/14

July 8, 2014

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Ahoy there!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It’s time for us to talk about this, where “this” refers to major-league baseball

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Standard caveat: I’m not the guy to ask your fantasy questions. I can’t really give any good fantasy baseball advice

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: or regular fantasy advice

9:07	Comment From zurzles can we just remove that kershaw start from history? pretty please?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Our minds are not capable of understanding a pitcher with 11 runs allowed over a dozen starts

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: That start is in there to keep us from exploding from the inside

9:09	Comment From _David_ Welcome to the Mariners Jesus Sucre?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Excellent defender, little bat, as opposed to Buck who is a mediocre defender, with only a little more bat

9:09	Comment From Catoblepas No minor leagues? 🙁

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: You can try, but I sure am under-educated on prospects!

9:10	Comment From Spencer00 Why the heck is Ian Kinsler not even on the final ballot?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It would appear the AL selected for itself one too few pitchers

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He’s basically been the same player as Kyle Seager, and Seager needed an injury to squeeze himself in. Could happen for Kinsler, too. Always a perplexing process

9:13	Comment From Guest Any possible chance the M’s could land Tulo?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: You can go ahead and ignore any and all such suggestions

9:14	Comment From Ricky Zach Wheeler for Starlin Castro- who says no?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Wheeler and Castro are the same age

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Seems to me like the Cubs wouldn’t be satisfied by such an exchange

9:16	Comment From Bret Hi Jeff! In return for your tardiness, can you please tell us how you would fix the Jays?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: something like Zobrist + Kennedy could be a dream

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if it’s actually possible and probable, but it covers some bases for a team that, when healthy, is better than this

9:17	Comment From _David_ Probably just a false rumor, but shouldn’t the Mariners wait and see just how good Maurer can be in relief before essentially giving him away for someone like Viciedo?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In theory, one should be content to move relievers for starting outfielders. But you have to make sure you’re talking about an actual helpful starting outfielder and not that guy

9:19	Comment From Steve Settle an argument. Farrell has said Koji is in line to get Tanaka’s All-Star spot. My friend says this is the right move (based on rate stats). I say Garrett Richards is more deserving (based on value). Who’s right? (Ignore Sale: We both thing he should go.)

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a matter of what you want the All-Star Game to be. If it’s about first-half performance, then it should be Richards over Uehara. But if it’s about performance since the previous All-Star Game, then it should probably be Uehara. I don’t think one could go wrong here, to be honest

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: so have fun continuing to argue!

9:21	Comment From Kevin Any chance Castro from the Cubs gets traded this month since they’ve added Russell?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll definitely be listening but at the moment there’s not yet any sense of urgency

9:21	Comment From Chris John Buck was DFA’d last night. Obviously he wasnt very good, even in a backup roll, but was highly regarded in the clubhouse and most of the players liked him. What do you think of the move with all the players apparently negative about it?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll write about this later, but for one thing, the pitchers were apparently grumbling about Buck a bit so it’s not like every last player is devastated, and you also have to consider that perhaps Buck had already made the difference he was brought in to make. Is the team chemistry now going to fall apart? If Buck was the glue, as Zunino said, maybe the glue dried, and so it ought to hold. Ultimately it’s a baseball move and it’s interesting to see the Mariners of all teams seemingly going for analytics over chemistry

9:23	Comment From Vslyke What is La Stella’s ceiling? Can he potentially become an All-Star caliber player?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Well, Marco Scutaro made the 2013 All-Star Game

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: La Stella is virtually powerless, so eventually he’s going to start getting challenged. It’ll be more difficult for him to draw walks, but he rarely strikes out, and David Eckstein turned this kind of package into a 4-WAR season in 2002

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Really, you’re talking about a guy who could be an average regular for a handful of years

9:25	Comment From Guest Best impact player rumored to be available for trade you can think of?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Price, and Cliff Lee’s close if he’s healthy. I don’t think the Rockies are going to trade Tulowitzki, but if they do start with the process, then clearly he vaults up

9:26	Comment From Guest Manny Machado is friends with A-Rod. Is this the biggest non-story ever? Also, his bat has really come around recently.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: One of the downsides of writing is that, even on your off days, when you don’t have any great ideas, you’re still basically required to publish something for lots of people to read

9:28	Comment From Ethan With their playoff odds down below 5%, do you see the Red Sox as sellers at the deadline? If so, who goes?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you see a lot of movement, because the team can come right back and try to contend in 2015. So they’d be shedding more insignificant things, like the mediocre Jake Peavy, or maybe Jonny Gomes, or bits from the bullpen. I don’t think Lester moves, and I think the big names remain

9:32	Comment From Oren Is Aaron Hill bad again? How much to the Dbacks have to eat for a team to take Hill?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: The good news is that Aaron Hill has bounced back from bad years before, but the bad news is he’s never done it at the age he’s at now. The Diamondbacks would either be assuming a different bad contract, or they’d be paying more than they’re probably willing to pay. I think in this case Arizona gives Hill time to try to work things back out

9:33	Comment From Catoblepas Who breaks first; Kershaw or Hernandez? Best best-of-each-league pitchers in recent history?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Your first question is extremely upsetting to even begin to think about

9:33	Comment From Mark The real question is how filthy would Kershaw’s numbers be without that shoddy start in Arizona?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: 85.2 innings, 58 hits, 11 runs, 10 walks, 112 strikeouts

9:34	Comment From glub That’s got to be a career-ender for Arroyo, right? (also, what the hell was towers thinking?)

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The Twins and Diamondbacks paid for the certainty of durability. Now Nolasco is getting his elbow checked, and Arroyo’s already arrived at the worst-case scenario

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Durable pitchers are durable until they’re not. Pay for talent

9:35	Comment From Jobin What do you see from Headley ROS?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: endless trade rumors and a mediocre performance in whatever jersey he wears

9:37	Comment From Daniel B What do you make of Yankees? Is there enough out there (that the team can get) to improve the team enough to justify the effort? It seems like the division’s problems are giving false hope…

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees project as a .500 ballclub in a division full of .500 ballclubs. They’re not good,but neither is the competition, and they might be the best positioned to make an impact move or two in the coming weeks

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is a team you pay out the ass to make better, but if the Yankees can find a somewhat affordable and versatile infielder, that’d help them, and come playoff time there are worse things than beginning with Masahiro Tanaka

9:40	Comment From Guest Do you think the Red Sox will trade Lester?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never considered it likely, and I still don’t

9:42	Comment From Bret Is Gordon Beckham a trade candidate? Or more of a DFA candidate?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: kind of both. he’s a trade candidate who won’t and wouldn’t fetch very much

9:42

Comment From The goggles, they do nothing
So the Jays are pretty terrible lately. People using the argument that they’ve been going up against “good pitchers” is garbage. They can’t score runs to save their lives. How does this get fixed so everyone in Toronto can be happy again? Reimold certainly isn’t the answer. Gordon Beckham would be a good start in my opinion. Thanks.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Thing about Gordon Beckham is he’s not good

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: The team’s been hurt without Lawrie and without a totally functional Encarnacion. The offense you saw earlier this season hasn’t disappeared for good. There’s still room for an improvement, and I already mentioned an option like Ben Zobrist, but the Jays still project as a solid group of hitters when the group is mostly healthy

9:45	Comment From JonnyLestah why are the Reds & Blue Jays moving good defensive RF to 1B in light of injuries? Won’t this greatly decrease the overall defense?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: In theory you don’t want to move good defenders, but it’s all settled by how the roster is actually constructed, and in these two cases it’s not like there are vastly superior options

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s all, supposedly, short-term

9:46	Comment From Tom With the A’s making the first real “move”, do they kinda force some other teams hands to stay competitive?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they make things more interesting for the Angels and Mariners, but I think the rest of the teams don’t need to respond since the A’s were presumably going to win that division anyway

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: And teams aren’t going to make midseason moves just to try to match up better with the A’s in the playoffs

9:47	Comment From Bill Williams hey jeff first of all i want to say I’m a huge fan. anyway, which baseball player do you think wears an excessive amount of cologne during games

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yasmani Grandal probably smells unusual

9:48	Comment From Felix Me and Kuma, who else is more scary in the playoffs?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw and anyone

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners have a good front two, but other teams are deeper and sometimes you need as many as four starters in the postseason

9:50	Comment From PieTraynee Are there three better position players in the NL than McCutchen?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: On true talent, no, I dont’ think so

9:51	Comment From Sandy Is Stephen Strasburg the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, or just the unluckiest elite pitcher in baseball?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: This year, could be Brandon McCarthy

9:52	Comment From Xolo Does Headley become the steal of the trade season?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He projects for one and a half wins, he’s a free agent in November, and the Padres seem to still value him like he’s a legitimate quality player. I don’t think he ends up a steal, but he does end up a volatile, unpredictable asset

9:53	Comment From Joel How much longer do you think the Mariners are going to give Corey Hart to try to hit a baseball?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll add a bat in the next 3 weeks

9:54	Comment From kevinthecomic So, the Astros call up Domingo Santana for a cup of coffee — he proceeds to spill said cup of coffee all over himself and gets sent back down — is he back up this year? if so, what kind of production can we expect for this year? career?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I think he comes back later on and I think he survives. This move was a little bit pushed by Dexter Fowler going on the DL. Santana’s still very young and very talented and you don’t want to get down on him because of a handful of overmatched plate appearances against the best pitchers in the world

9:56	Comment From Redbird Fredbird Should the Cardinals trust the RoS projections, and believe the offense will turn around, or is it time to start panicking about the lack of production?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals project as a .529 team, and if you use the season-to-date tab, they project as a .524 team. So they’re pretty good, and on the year they’ve had a roughly league-average offense

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Of the ten guys with 100+ plate appearances, six have posted a strong wRC+. The problems have been Craig, Bourjos, Wong, and Ellis. You’d like to think that Taveras could help diminish some of their roles, so I don’t think this unit is a real problem

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: But as Dave’s written about, Price/Zobrist sure would change the landscape. That quickly the Cardinals vault to being elite

9:59	Comment From Sumodave With the significant lack of “impact bats” available at the deadline, but the very significant need for them, who do you see as a possible “nobody saw that coming” sort of trade. Tulo? Parra? Beltre?