Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/27/13

August 27, 2013

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: And now this is happening.

9:00	Comment From bdhudson whoa, on time….

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I am. You guys aren’t.

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: So hello there everybody. Let’s talk about Allen Craig and his batting splits, because that should occupy an hour or so!

9:01	Comment From Kris How big of a nonstory is the Astros turning a profit?

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: On a scale from 1-10, it’s a 5 non-story. We don’t actually know the real true numbers, and of course the Astros are making money with a payroll of 11 cents.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: The real question will be what they do when they actually have a reason to invest. Where is this money that they’re making going to go?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s somewhat justifiable for them to have such a low-level payroll this season, but the spending needs to start up soon.

9:03	Comment From GSon WHO claimed Kendrys?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: some AL team

9:03	Comment From bdhudson re: cameron’s one year of trout question – what would you give him?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: $40-45 million-ish

9:03	Comment From Mike Matt Harvey’s injury is as bad as this chat will be good today… right?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: much like Matt Harvey’s injury, thousands will be talking about this chat in 2014

9:04	Comment From Mark Why does freeze, pump, thaw have to be such an effective way to degas solvents? SPARGE4LIFE!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: There was a time in my life I would’ve understood this

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re not learning, you’re forgetting 🙁

9:04	Comment From Malone Jeff, how do you feel about Dayn Perry saying on his most recent podcast that he would beat you to death with a flag-draped soupbone? You gonna take that?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I always have to hear about Dayn’s empty threats from other people, because I don’t hear them for myself.

9:05	Comment From Sean T. Did Casper Wells have the worst game ever on Saturday? I counted -0.5 WAR for him that game (batted 0-8 and had a 16.50 FIP in 2/3 IP).

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Actual legitimate question. Obviously there are issues of circumstance and regular job, but I wonder about his Saturday WPA. Wells is on the DL now with vision problems, which have been recurring, and that might at least explain…pretty much everything, really

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Would also explain why he’s bounced around from team to team. Interesting player, Wells. Less interesting when he can’t see the baseballs.

9:07	Comment From Ryan I asked this on Quora and wanted to see what you thought…. How likely (in % chance) do you think it is that Mike Trout makes it into the MLB Hall of Fame someday? ….I received a well reasoned response from someone of 75%. Too high, low, or just about right?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: One thing we already know about Mike Trout is that he has Hall-of-Fame-level talent. Another thing we already know is that he can turn that talent into results.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: So all that’s left is longevity and he’s an athletic, fit outfielder. Surely, there are ways this could all go wrong. There are more ways for this to go well. Off the top of my head I think something around 75% is reasonable

9:08	Comment From Jimbo Mike Olt getting hot. Opening Day 3B next year, or do the Cubs roll with Murphy?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Olt has batted .177 in August with a .632 OPS

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he went 4-for-4 the other day. Those are half of his hits since August 13

9:09	Comment From Henry can we have a moment of silence for matt harvey’s elbow?

9:10	Comment From Anon21 Fair offer for a deal that buys Andrelton Simmons’ first two years of free agency out? (So this would be a deal going through the 2020 season.)

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Quick calculations: 7 years, $39 million?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even begin to express just how little thought went into arriving at that number

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Andrus is going to be getting about $15 million/year in his would-be free agency years

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: but Simmons has a sub-.300 OBP. I think you could get him for cheaper, because the market still isn’t rewarding defensive value like offensive value

9:13	Comment From BX Assuming Kendrys Morales was claimed by an AL team with a serious intention of trading for him: should the Mariners trade Morales for a meh prospect?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: To me, it depends how much the Mariners will be looking to spend in 2014. They have very few commitments outside of Felix Hernandez, so they can afford a slight overpay for Morales if they extend a qualifying offer and he accepts. But yeah, there’s an argument for just giving him away now and taking what savings remain, along with the AA reliever or whatever

9:14	Comment From LarryA How long before a significant change in K% or BB% for hitter before we can call it a real change and not just a SSS fluke

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: There is no magic dividing line upon which numbers suddenly start to matter, but I’d say a month gets your attention, two months drives your curiosity, and three months gets you wondering if this might be legit. Beyond three months (and the corresponding number of plate appearances) you can start really thinking something might have changed

9:16	Comment From Sirras One On a scale of 10 to 10, how big a blow is it to the Mets that Harvey is hurt? How big a blow is it to baseball?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Hard to imagine a more crippling individual pitcher injury for 2014, even if the Mets were a playoff longshot. I mean, that on its own knocks them down like 5 or 7 wins. Huge blow and obviously devastating for the fans, even if it *is* “just” Tommy John. It’s a big blow to baseball as well, in that New York is important to baseball, but maybe the upside is more attention for guys like Fernandez and Ryu and Miller? I’m grasping, but there’s a lot of non-Harvey talent out there

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Whoa, hey, no more Jim Callis at Baseball America

9:19	Comment From Mike Honcho Any news on Beachy. Thought we’d have the results of his Dr. Andrews visit by now.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing yet, but he met yesterday, right? It takes time to get results. Even for big-leaguers

9:20	Comment From Sirras One Does Marlon Byrd turn back into a pumpkin next year?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: presumably

9:20	Comment From Gabe How many goats do I have to sacrifice to the Baseball Gods in order for the Mets to catch a break?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The Mets have Matt Harvey, which is still really great

9:20	Comment From Brian Allen Craig’s slugging is lower vs. RHP but he has more HR vs. RHP. My question is this: Why is Allen Craig?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I intend to write a little about him later on today. He’s a curious one and I don’t want to just leave it at “misleadingly small sample sizes”

9:20	Comment From GSon does the “some AL team” make a deal for Kendrys?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it

9:21	Comment From bdhudson how relieved are you every day that felix’s elbow hasn’t fallen off?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The man is a god damned miracle

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: so far

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

9:21	Comment From Jimbo Yusmeiro Petit has had impressive numbers at AAA. Any chance he’s a decent big league starting pitcher?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’s done this before. He’s been doing this for a while. Don’t get your hopes up. He’s earned a lot of that big-league ERA

9:22	Comment From Voice of Geddy Lee Are strikeouts up over time because pitching has improved or because batters are more aggressive? Put differently, if, e.g., Nolan Ryan were pitching today would his k/9 be even higher than it was in his day?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers are better and batters are more patient

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Also, teams have prioritized strikeouts for pitchers while not minding them so much for hitters

9:23	Comment From LarryA Will Pence or Timmeh get moved this week?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:23	Comment From George I have a theory that the reason the called strike zone for left-handed batters is shifted to the third-base side is because it is easier for catchers to frame pitches received on their glove-side (i.e., the third base side). Thoughts?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Then why don’t we really see a corresponding inside-strike tendency with righties at the plate?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The zone for righties extends a little off the plate equally in both directions. It’s probably got something to do with umpire body position but I don’t remember what I’ve read on this subject

9:26	Comment From zack Harvey Man, pitchers suck?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard. On the one hand, don’t fall in love with pitchers. On the other hand, appreciate the pitchers you’ve got while you’ve got them. The key to love isn’t to stop trying to feel it if you’ve had your heart once broken.

9:27	Comment From rusty Any thoughts on Rick Porcello’s recent performance? Ks back down, walks back up…

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Porcello last year: 13.7% strikeouts

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Porcello this August: 18.5% strikeouts

9:28	Comment From Chris Davis Arms Will MLB teams ever get to the point where they mandate that their superstar pitching prospects undergo TJ surgery before they even throw a pitch in the organization?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: No, of course not

9:29	Comment From Jeremy Tell us an interesting fact about Utah

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: it’s where they filmed most of Touched By An Angel

9:30	Comment From Nestor Kack Are you a believer in the “doubles will turn into homers” theory for young players? For example, do you think Machado has significant power upside?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I think the reality is a lot more complicated than doubles just adding a few feet to their distance over time, and you have to look at how the doubles are being hit, but in Machado’s case, yeah, I see more power upside, because he’s really clobbered a few of his dingers. He’s got the bat speed

9:31	Comment From Justin The team you least want to hear questions about for the rest of this season is … ?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: White Sox

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, ugh, who cares

9:32	Comment From Poozy Is Jered Weaver’s 86 MPH fastball cause for concern and can we expect him to bounce back next season.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: He’s shown a little improvement from his stuff pre-DL. His important numbers are basically unchanged.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Weaver needs to bounce back. I think he’s already fine, although we’ll see how slow he can get and still be effective

9:34	Comment From Northsider Could you see Trout avoiding an extension with the Angels because of the questionable future of the team thanks to bad contracts?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: No. Ultimately, if they offer him the money, he’ll take the money

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton will be gone by the time Trout starts getting really expensive, and Pujols is just one guy on a team with a lot of money to spend

9:35

Comment From Dewey
I’m beginning to believe the PED issue has skewed our perspectives on player development. Perhaps a PED free player’s development fluctuates more drastically during years 1-5, or we are about to see more stints on the DL that we have to accept as the new norm, verses calling someone injury prone?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like it’s usually young players who are getting into the most regular, chronic injury trouble, so I don’t foresee much of a spike there in DL rates.

9:36	Comment From juan pierres mustache baseball has a sad 🙁 http://mlb.mlb.com/images/4/1/2/58547412/Harvey_savg5k3g.gif

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: aw geez

9:36	Comment From Guest When is Miggy going to get a bunch of IBB’s? How good do you have to be before teams just give up pitching to certain players?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: He’s tied for the league lead. And that’s despite intentional walks seldom actually being a good idea

9:38	Comment From Dave Will there be any stories next year when the Cards hit .250 with RISP instead of .330?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: sure will!

9:38	Comment From Jojo If you were Matt Harvey and were approached by the Mets for a buy-low long-term deal in the wake of your UCL diagnosis (say 5/25M), would you take it as an insult or just take it?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I would not be receptive at this moment in time

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Not because it’s objectively a bad idea; more because people are people and Harvey isn’t going to want to think about a contract when he’s facing his first major surgery

9:39	Comment From Audiophile If the Jeff Sullivan Fangraphs Chats had an opening theme what would it be? A volcanic eruption? An audio clip of a misplayed flyball to Raul Ibanez in LF?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Jeff Sullivan eating a bagel too fast

9:40	Comment From Mike what WAR would you expect out of a #1 starter, #2 starter, #3, #4, #5?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: off the top of my head: approximately those numbers in reverse

9:40	Comment From zack In all seriousness, the mets are pointlessly delaying surgery at this point aren’t they? Can you think of a pitcher with a torn UCL that managed to recover by resting?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: I like to note this every time a guy is prescribed rest and rehab instead of surgery. Seems to me, it ultimately always comes down to surgery. But I’m just a guy who thinks he notices patterns. The people making these decisions are way more informed — some of them are medical doctors! — and they absolutely understand the risks. There have to be reasons why they try to avoid surgery sometimes at first, and those reasons, I have to assume, are legitimate.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they’re wrong and they need to be more aggressive about this stuff but it’s not like Tommy John is automatic (Ryan Madson), and that’s a major invasive procedure

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It makes sense that people would want to avoid immediately going under the knife

9:44	Comment From Kevin Will Hellickson every straighten himself out and become a good pitcher?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The humor is that his peripherals are trending in the right direction

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll be adequate but I don’t think he’ll be great

9:44	Comment From Guest What is the acceptable emotional impact of harvey’s injusry for Met fans? I feel like my dog died but im not sure if thats too strong.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: (sorry for all the Harvey stuff today, but…)

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: When Felix Hernandez has had injury scares in the past, they’ve rattled me to the core. And he’s never had anything significant. When you follow a bad team, a guy like Harvey is what you feel like is keeping your loyalty intact. Harvey represents the way in which baseball is still good, even when it sucks. To have Harvey taken away is to be left with a Harvey-less landscape, which one might think of as a sky without a sun. You’re free to be devastated. The Mets are bigger than Matt Harvey, but Harvey’s the best thing about the Mets.

9:46	Comment From coffeesodabeer Thank goodness for Fox Sports 1. I always wanted to hear Donovan McNabb and Andy Roddick debate the greatness of Ichiro.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder when will be the first time I seek that channel out on purpose

9:46	Comment From Henry someone today asserted that if jacoby ellsbury wanted a deal with the red sox, he would’ve made one by now. is that reasonable? i would think he waits until the end no matter what, for full value.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury, probably, would like to remain where he is. But not to such a degree that he’s not going to see what’s out there in order to chase the big contract. A deal would be done by now if there were mutual, significant interest

9:49	Comment From costanza Chances Arod passes mays sometime down the road?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: fun fact: Mays regular season + playoffs = 661 home runs. Rodriguez regular season + playoffs = 663 home runs.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ll see A-Rod in 2015, and I think he’ll be able to sock a few dingers. Call it a coin fclip

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: *flip

9:50	Comment From Brian Where do the Cardinals turn for a SS? Either now or in the near future?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Nowhere good. Thankfully, shortstop is only one position on a team that’s super talented

9:51	Comment From Chris With the rumors of the m’s interested in cashman and gillick why wouldn’t they try to go with a more metrics savvy gm instead of an old man or guy whose used to huge payrolls instead?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Because that’s not how they operate. And because they liked the first Gillick Mariners era. And because they had a bad experience with Zduriencik’s front office being kind of statty at first

9:52	Comment From Jeremy My friend says we will never see another Mike Trout-level player again in baseball which got me thinking about former superstars. How much did A-Rod, Griffey, Pujols compare to Mike Trout at the early stages of their careers?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: A-Rod was worth 9.2 WAR in his first full season. Griffey passed 8 at 23 years old. Pujols came in at 9.6 at 23

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be other guys like Trout. Just not very many of them. Baseball’s going to be around for a while

9:54	Comment From coffeesodabeer Gun to your head, Morosi or Heyman?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Heyman

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Wait, what am I choosing?

9:54	Comment From Matt Thoughts on the young crop of SS’s for ’14? – You think guys like Bogaerts and Profar are going to be solid contributors next year?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, although Profar might not be a shortstop

9:54	Comment From zack Was Beachy rushed back from surgery?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Too simplistic. Shit happens

9:54	Comment From Jason What current players have a greater than 75% (estimated Trout chance) at making the Hall of Fame?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, Mariano Rivera

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Halladay could have a good shot

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Jeter, Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera…

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Adrian Beltre is probably a little below 75%

9:57	Comment From zack Who will make the playoffs first: Marlins or Astros? Marlins have Loria, but also substantially more big league talent

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins

9:57	Comment From Eddie After batting 2nd for the first time in his pro career, Anthony Rizzo said this: “You think of your second hitter of the game as someone who gets guys over, bunts and slaps and whatnot.”

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not wrong, you do think that

9:58	Comment From Dan Who’s having a better season: Breaking Bad, or Mike Trout?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Breaking Bad

9:59	Comment From emlazar What would you say Carlos Beltran’s value will be in free agency this winter?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: something like 2/$20m?

9:59	Comment From Matt As a Twins fan, should I be worried that as long as Rick Anderson’s the pitching coach, Twins pitchers will continue to ‘pitch to contact’? I think Liriano/Santana are the only SP’s in recent memory to break this trend.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Anderson isn’t the guy responsible for bringing in the arms

9:59	Comment From Tom Allen Craig himself has been quoted as saying his numbers reflect other players getting on base and giving him better pitches to hit.