Jurickson Profar Finds a Taker: A Perplexing Rockies Squad

Jurickson Profar
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The last domino in our top 50 free agent rankings finally fell Sunday morning, with Jon Heyman breaking the news of Jurickson Profar’s one-year, $7.75 million pact with the Rockies. The ex-Padres outfielder can earn an additional $1 million through incentives.

While I perpetually struggle to wrap my head around Rockies transactions, from Profar’s side, it’s clear why he took this deal. Given reports of a high asking price, he likely overestimated the strength of his market, and as the winter wore on, he probably realized that his best chance at besting the $7.5 million option he turned down to stay in San Diego was to wait things out until March and hope a spot opened up after the usual rash of spring training injuries. That plan has come to fruition, with a guarantee just north of the money he declined.

What’s more, the one-year deal gives Profar the chance to improve upon a career-high 2.5 WAR last season in the hopes of snagging his asking price in his next trip to free agency. Teams know how to adjust for park factor, but it’s still hard to think of a better place to go on a one-year contract than Coors Field.

There’s good reason to believe that Profar in particular could make the most of his stay in Denver. Last year, he put up the 25th-best contact rate among 130 qualifiers. He also put the ball in play more than average, tying for the 55th-lowest K+BB% rate. Those attributes play up at Coors simply because balls fly further there, and putting the ball in play gives them the opportunity to do so. Below is a graph of Contact% versus wRC+ for individual seasons from 2015 to ’22, for hitters with at least 300 plate appearances:

Generally, higher contact rates correspond with lower wRC+ marks, perhaps because they come at the expense of power. But not in Coors; there, higher contact rates seem to lead to higher wRC+ figures. Similarly, below is a graph much like the above, but with K+BB% swapped in for Contact%:

Those who put the ball in play less are typically better by measure of wRC+ — maybe because they fall in the three true outcomes category and hit a lot of homers. But once again, this isn’t the case at Coors; there, it doesn’t seem to make a difference, which makes sense, as the usual benefit of being a three-true-outcomes hitter is canceled out by the benefit of putting the ball in play more.

Somehow, I doubt that this is what the Rockies were thinking when they inked Profar. This is a franchise that seems perpetually in denial about its playoff chances, such that win-now moves for 75-win teams become the norm, especially when it entails giving playing time to a veteran with limited upside when the team could have just as easily gone with a number of more potentially promising internal options. Unfortunately, Profar’s deal falls into that category.

As far as win-now moves go, this one is pretty low risk in terms of dollar value and commitment. Additionally, it’s a bargain by both Ben Clemens’ prediction (two years, $20 million) and our contract crowdsourcing (three years, $30 million median). But beyond hopes for a contact-driven breakout, it’s also a move lacking in upside. Profar was once the game’s no. 1 prospect, but that was back in 2013, when evaluators like our own Marc Hulet saw him as a five-tool player. And while his game is certainly well-rounded, it isn’t overly impressive in any one aspect. Profar has turned out to be an average to slightly above-average hitter, and while scouts thought he’d stick in the middle infield, he’s been slightly below average across all outfield spots (not to mention on the bases) for two years in a row.

That’s not to say there isn’t a place for players like Profar on a big league roster. As a switch-hitter, he can hold his own against righties and lefties. That, coupled with a strong five years in the health department, makes him a stabilizing presence in the lineup and a valuable, regular utility option on the bench. But as Kyle Kishimoto noted in a piece on Profar’s long stay in free agency, his skillset pegs him for stopgap duty on a playoff team. He exceeded the league-average 2-WAR threshold for the first time in his career last season, and he needed a career-high 658 plate appearances to do so. Meanwhile, similarly ranked hitters on our top free agents list, like Michael Brantley and Brandon Drury, can at least move the needle for a contending team due to their excellence in specific roles (i.e., hitting right-handers or manning multiple positions).

The Rockies do need real needle-movers if they want to contend; we project them to finish dead last in the majors with 64 wins this season. But they aren’t behaving like their projections suggest they should. Profar is being used as a stopgap in the wake of injuries to Sean Bouchard and Randal Grichuk in the outfield, just as fellow league-average (or worse) veteran Mike Moustakas was brought in after Brendan Rodgers dislocated his shoulder.

Good on the Rockies for considering Bouchard for a starting spot after he tore up the minors and impressed in a cup of coffee last season, but Grichuk — who should be no more than a role player at this stage of his career himself — and Profar are players who shouldn’t get playing time over someone like Nolan Jones given where the Rockies are. Jones is a 45 FV prospect with a solid minor league track record who held his own in a brief major league stint with the Guardians last season, but it seems like the Rockies are doing everything they can to keep him from starting, blocking him at his natural third base position with Moustakas and now in the outfield with Profar. And don’t get me started on Kris Bryant’s permanent move to the outfield and how it limits his value.

I firmly believe that there are strategies that can lead to sustained baseball success a mile above sea level. The Rockies’ current form doesn’t embody those strategies, or even strategies that would entail success at a normal altitude, but I believe they’re worth speculating about here just in case they might be reading. And maybe the Rockies will surprise me. Maybe they’ve discovered a way to preempt the Coors hangover effect. Maybe Profar will finally make good on his pedigree by leaning into his high-contact ways. But even if he has a good season, as a 30-year-old, his upside is capped. And without a more realistic perspective on their playoff chances, and probably a full rebuild and reckoning, that’s the case for the Rockies, too.





Alex is a FanGraphs contributor. His work has also appeared at Pinstripe Alley, Pitcher List, and Sports Info Solutions. He is especially interested in how and why players make decisions, something he struggles with in daily life. You can find him on Twitter @Mind_OverBatter.

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angels25
1 year ago

I get not wanting to block Nolan Jones. But Jones has K’d 20 times in 43 PA this Spring, he is just clearly not ready. Let him and prospects like Toglia and Doyle get consistent AB’s in AAA.

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  angels25

I’m a big Nolan Jones fan and think they should just roll with him in a corner outfield slot but if he’s not ready, you absolutely want him playing every day instead of sitting on the bench. Them talking about maybe switching him back to third base is a bit of a warning sign that they don’t think he would make the team otherwise.

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Optioned Jones today. My guess is that he lost the job, then they signed Profar. It’s a bummer it happened this way but it sounds like his spring training was awful.

mariodegenzgz
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Looked completely lost at the plate, not seeing the ball at all. Take it from someone who watched a good amount of his PAs lol

JuicedBalls
1 year ago
Reply to  angels25

Nolan Jones has 650 PAs in AAA and is nearly 25 yo. When exactly will the strikeout prince be ready?