Jurickson Profar Finds a Taker: A Perplexing Rockies Squad
The last domino in our top 50 free agent rankings finally fell Sunday morning, with Jon Heyman breaking the news of Jurickson Profar’s one-year, $7.75 million pact with the Rockies. The ex-Padres outfielder can earn an additional $1 million through incentives.
While I perpetually struggle to wrap my head around Rockies transactions, from Profar’s side, it’s clear why he took this deal. Given reports of a high asking price, he likely overestimated the strength of his market, and as the winter wore on, he probably realized that his best chance at besting the $7.5 million option he turned down to stay in San Diego was to wait things out until March and hope a spot opened up after the usual rash of spring training injuries. That plan has come to fruition, with a guarantee just north of the money he declined.
What’s more, the one-year deal gives Profar the chance to improve upon a career-high 2.5 WAR last season in the hopes of snagging his asking price in his next trip to free agency. Teams know how to adjust for park factor, but it’s still hard to think of a better place to go on a one-year contract than Coors Field.
There’s good reason to believe that Profar in particular could make the most of his stay in Denver. Last year, he put up the 25th-best contact rate among 130 qualifiers. He also put the ball in play more than average, tying for the 55th-lowest K+BB% rate. Those attributes play up at Coors simply because balls fly further there, and putting the ball in play gives them the opportunity to do so. Below is a graph of Contact% versus wRC+ for individual seasons from 2015 to ’22, for hitters with at least 300 plate appearances:
Generally, higher contact rates correspond with lower wRC+ marks, perhaps because they come at the expense of power. But not in Coors; there, higher contact rates seem to lead to higher wRC+ figures. Similarly, below is a graph much like the above, but with K+BB% swapped in for Contact%:
Those who put the ball in play less are typically better by measure of wRC+ — maybe because they fall in the three true outcomes category and hit a lot of homers. But once again, this isn’t the case at Coors; there, it doesn’t seem to make a difference, which makes sense, as the usual benefit of being a three-true-outcomes hitter is canceled out by the benefit of putting the ball in play more.
Somehow, I doubt that this is what the Rockies were thinking when they inked Profar. This is a franchise that seems perpetually in denial about its playoff chances, such that win-now moves for 75-win teams become the norm, especially when it entails giving playing time to a veteran with limited upside when the team could have just as easily gone with a number of more potentially promising internal options. Unfortunately, Profar’s deal falls into that category.
As far as win-now moves go, this one is pretty low risk in terms of dollar value and commitment. Additionally, it’s a bargain by both Ben Clemens’ prediction (two years, $20 million) and our contract crowdsourcing (three years, $30 million median). But beyond hopes for a contact-driven breakout, it’s also a move lacking in upside. Profar was once the game’s no. 1 prospect, but that was back in 2013, when evaluators like our own Marc Hulet saw him as a five-tool player. And while his game is certainly well-rounded, it isn’t overly impressive in any one aspect. Profar has turned out to be an average to slightly above-average hitter, and while scouts thought he’d stick in the middle infield, he’s been slightly below average across all outfield spots (not to mention on the bases) for two years in a row.
That’s not to say there isn’t a place for players like Profar on a big league roster. As a switch-hitter, he can hold his own against righties and lefties. That, coupled with a strong five years in the health department, makes him a stabilizing presence in the lineup and a valuable, regular utility option on the bench. But as Kyle Kishimoto noted in a piece on Profar’s long stay in free agency, his skillset pegs him for stopgap duty on a playoff team. He exceeded the league-average 2-WAR threshold for the first time in his career last season, and he needed a career-high 658 plate appearances to do so. Meanwhile, similarly ranked hitters on our top free agents list, like Michael Brantley and Brandon Drury, can at least move the needle for a contending team due to their excellence in specific roles (i.e., hitting right-handers or manning multiple positions).
The Rockies do need real needle-movers if they want to contend; we project them to finish dead last in the majors with 64 wins this season. But they aren’t behaving like their projections suggest they should. Profar is being used as a stopgap in the wake of injuries to Sean Bouchard and Randal Grichuk in the outfield, just as fellow league-average (or worse) veteran Mike Moustakas was brought in after Brendan Rodgers dislocated his shoulder.
Good on the Rockies for considering Bouchard for a starting spot after he tore up the minors and impressed in a cup of coffee last season, but Grichuk — who should be no more than a role player at this stage of his career himself — and Profar are players who shouldn’t get playing time over someone like Nolan Jones given where the Rockies are. Jones is a 45 FV prospect with a solid minor league track record who held his own in a brief major league stint with the Guardians last season, but it seems like the Rockies are doing everything they can to keep him from starting, blocking him at his natural third base position with Moustakas and now in the outfield with Profar. And don’t get me started on Kris Bryant’s permanent move to the outfield and how it limits his value.
I firmly believe that there are strategies that can lead to sustained baseball success a mile above sea level. The Rockies’ current form doesn’t embody those strategies, or even strategies that would entail success at a normal altitude, but I believe they’re worth speculating about here just in case they might be reading. And maybe the Rockies will surprise me. Maybe they’ve discovered a way to preempt the Coors hangover effect. Maybe Profar will finally make good on his pedigree by leaning into his high-contact ways. But even if he has a good season, as a 30-year-old, his upside is capped. And without a more realistic perspective on their playoff chances, and probably a full rebuild and reckoning, that’s the case for the Rockies, too.
Alex is a FanGraphs contributor. His work has also appeared at Pinstripe Alley, Pitcher List, and Sports Info Solutions. He is especially interested in how and why players make decisions, something he struggles with in daily life. You can find him on Twitter @Mind_OverBatter.
I get not wanting to block Nolan Jones. But Jones has K’d 20 times in 43 PA this Spring, he is just clearly not ready. Let him and prospects like Toglia and Doyle get consistent AB’s in AAA.
I’m a big Nolan Jones fan and think they should just roll with him in a corner outfield slot but if he’s not ready, you absolutely want him playing every day instead of sitting on the bench. Them talking about maybe switching him back to third base is a bit of a warning sign that they don’t think he would make the team otherwise.
Optioned Jones today. My guess is that he lost the job, then they signed Profar. It’s a bummer it happened this way but it sounds like his spring training was awful.
Looked completely lost at the plate, not seeing the ball at all. Take it from someone who watched a good amount of his PAs lol
Nolan Jones has 650 PAs in AAA and is nearly 25 yo. When exactly will the strikeout prince be ready?
A position player that overrates themselves and an organization that overrates older, not very good position players. A match made in heaven.
I mean, did he overrate himself? This was just about the worst case scenario, and it’s still as good as the option he declined.
Yeah he comes out ahead with the buyout. Only reason this might hurt him down the road is if other teams view his numbers as a Coors creation and decide they don’t want anything to do with him, but that might not even happen.
Although, given the level of interest other teams have shown, I think the Rockies jumped too much to meet his (heavily revised) asking price. I can easily see even worse scenarios where he only gets $5M or so guaranteed.
Sure, I think the Rockies overpaid and that this is a weird move for them. But it’s a reasonably safe assumption that some team is going to be in a bad spot or make a weird decision.
Eh, I think other teams would have jumped in if he dropped below $7 million. He’d be a solid backup for a number of teams.
This is certainly harsher-than-normal analysis of a one year contract that costs the Rockies nothing but money. I sincerely doubt that the Rockies will have enough young, promising players that Profar could potentially block. It seems more likely that he’ll just plug in wherever they want to prevent a black hole.
And there is of course some value here. If he’s successful, it could portend a team-friendly extension or a trade for some value. In the past Fangraphs’ writers have generally looked positively at this strategy, but it’s not mentioned here.
Finally, I am a little satisfied that those that thought he should have taken the option were proven wrong because that seemed insane. He not only still got a slightly better deal after misplaying his hand fairly poorly, but he also avoided having to go to most of Spring Training, but signed just in time to almost surely be completely ready for the start of the season.
I thought he should have taken the option, but in the end he was always likely to get a deal like the one he declined. He got a bit lucky with the Rockies and the injuries but even in the scenario where he does worse than this it probably isn’t that much worse, especially since he pocketed some money from the buyout.
As for the deal from the Rockies side…I think it’s fine. I am also pretty mystified by the Rockies and would prefer them to just insert Nolan Jones in the corner outfield but the upper level depth in their outfield is real bad right now and Kris Bryant is no guarantee to stay healthy running all over the OF there. I think it is awfully likely Jones gets his shot this year anyway.
the problem is the Rockies have mismanaged the TDL for many years now so it’s probably fair to ignore that as a reasonable option for them
It’s 7.75 million dollars the Rockies could have spent on scouting or player development. “Nothing but money” is kind of a weird way to discount an expense.
The Rockies confound me in every single way possible. I feel like I understand how most MLB teams operate, even if I feel some may be behind the times or some may be too cheap or some may be too ownership meddlesome. But the Rockies seem to operate in a parallel universe where the rules of this MLB universe do not apply to them.
It would be one thing if they’re successful doing this, but clearly they’re not.
There is some degree of predictability to them, though. They like to sign mediocre to decent veterans, sometimes play them out of position, and avoid rebuilding no matter what as some kind of delusion that the team is a lot better than they actually are. Just because their M.O. is crazy doesn’t mean they don’t actually have one.
I would agree with this except they would do something like let go of Trevor Story, Tulo, and Nolan Arenado. I’m not even saying these are bad moves since some of these have been right. But if we assume they want to get rid of aging vets who might be dropping off… we then see them sign Kris Bryant and Ian Desmond.
Unless of course they are doing exactly what you are saying, except they’re just very bad at their jobs.
They sold on Tulo at the right time. I don’t know what was going on with Story, but they probably thought they weren’t getting anything better than the draft pick he would get from leaving. I think Arenado was because they were afraid it was messing up team chemistry.
Of these, I think Tulo was a legitimately good move, the Arenado trade was bad because they didn’t trade him when he was good and traded him when he was bad, and the Story move was bad because they didn’t trade him at the same time as Arenado (and not because of what happened at the deadline).
The ones I really don’t get are signing Kris Bryant and whatever they were doing with Jon Gray.
The Rockies do not read Fangraphs 🙂
Don’t you just hate it when owners upgrade the MLB roster and don’t pocket the money saved by running out nothing but league minimum guys.
Some of those league minimum guys could be better players for the team down the road.
Spending money just to spend money is a foolish take.
I thought the Rockies should have done this when Bouchard got hurt, put Jones in RF, let Bryant split time between third and the outfield and DH and have Grichuk ride the bench as a more traditional 4th OF.
Even though this probably means Jones opens the season in AAA it is probably fine. The Rockies can’t exactly say it out loud but they really needed another competent outfielder of any stripe because after Jones and Bryant they had…Harold Castro? Doyle needs reps every day so he can’t be the backup and Toglia is a first baseman. The depth is abysmal, and they have to play someone out there and Castro barely qualifies as “someone”, even for a bad team.
So Jones will play every day in AAA until Bryant gets hurt and everyone will get to see what he can do without angering the highest paid guy on the team. It’s not perfect but it’s important to remember that this signing isn’t the problem…it’s that they’re working around Bryant, who they never should have signed and can’t play that outfield and is probably now untradeable.
They’re never going to trade KB unless he publicly complains about the team in a major way like Arenado did. They’ve liked him since he was in Vegas.
I mean, it’s irrelevant now. Even if Bryant complains, no one is trading for him unless the Rockies eat half the money left. And that’s a lot of money.
But me? I would absolutely be putting him at third base to see if he can still play it. If he can still play it, they could trade him. But the Rockies don’t want to trade him. The Rockies want him to be their everyday corner outfielder. That’s the root of the problem, and signing Jurickson Profar neither solves nor exacerbates it.
Man, I remember getting a couple weeks of extremely solid production out of Harold Castro in my deep fantasy league in 2020. And to be fair, his projections aren’t terrible for this year!
This signing would make sense as a flip-candidate at the Trade Deadline, but the Rockies have shown in recent years that they are absolutely putrid at handling the deadline.
Corner outfielders without big power numbers are not usually in demand at the deadline. I suppose they could flip him to a team that needs depth but that’s not going to get you much.
the only thing the Rockies will do at the deadline is give Justin Lawrence a 5-year extension
If it were a normal team, yeah. Signing with a bad team gives you a good chance of getting onto a good team by the end of July if you play well. Especially if you have some positional flexibility and are a switch hitter like Profar.
But it’s the Rockies so who knows what they will do and he could have already been on a good team if he would have agreed to $250k less, although that’s using my 20/20 hindsight.
One other thing about Profar, and whether this is a better spot for him than other places–
It’s a better spot for him than anywhere but San Diego because he needs to play everyday; if he opts into his deal in San Diego, he probably still plays every day in a corner spot. Here, he probably also plays every day. He probably doesn’t play everyday anywhere else. So the real question is whether he is better long-term having his walk year being in SD vs CO.
In SD, if he has another year like the one he just had, then other teams feel confident in his numbers because he’s done it for two years running in a ballpark that is vaguely like their own. He’s probably in line for a 2 or 3 year deal at that point. But if he fails, he’s probably looking at playing abroad or minor league deals.
In CO, if he has another year like the one he just had (park adjusted), then other teams will wonder if it’s just a creation of Coors. So this cuts off a lot of other options for him. But if he puts up a 110ish wRC+ and shows he can defend that rather large outfield effectively, you could easily see the Rockies deciding to keep him on. (Also, he banks an extra $1.5M this year)
So…I think this is probably a push for him in the big picture. He gets a little extra $ this year, but it means fewer teams will be interested in him next offseason.
are the lines in these graphs linear regressions of the true data? where is the noise? why are they so pretty?
Yes, they’re lines of best fit. All control variables are kept constant and the axes are scaled which makes them prettier. If you’re interested, the functions I use for them come from the interactions package in R.
Put me down as another vote for showing the actual data. Tufte wept.
Wow the 2013 Rangers farm was actually pretty stacked.
The Rangers had a few years where AJ Preller was ahead of the curve and signed a million guys for big money and they had the best farm system in the game. Profar was actually before the big wave. Mazara and Alfaro were all really big deals, and I thought Ronald Guzman actually got the largest signing bonus of all of them. Odor was somewhere in there too. And Joey Gallo was there around the same time, and he was a big deal; same with Lewis Brunson, to a lesser extent (neither of them were international but were seen as future stars). They were stacked. And except for Gallo they all busted. Prospects will break your heart.
Purhaps the Rockies see additional value in Profar as a trade piece. If they think a player needs a bit more time in the minors Profar buys them time.