Justin Steele (and Tommy Hottovy) on Justin Steele

Justin Steele has an uncommon pitch profile and an uncomplicated approach to his craft. He also has an outside chance of capturing this year’s NL Cy Young award. With two starts remaining (one if the Cubs clinch a Wild Card berth prior to Sunday’s regular-season finale), the 28-year-old southpaw is 16–5 with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.99 FIP over 168 innings. He’s not only been Chicago’s best pitcher, but he’s also been one of the best in the Senior Circuit.

Steele’s emergence as a frontline starter was portended by last year’s performance. While his won-lost record was an anything-but-eye-catching 4–7, his 3.18 ERA and his 3.20 FIP weren’t notably higher than this year’s marks. Moreover, his strikeout and ground-ball rates were actually better, as were his xFIP and HR/9. His BABIP was nearly identical. The only meaningful difference, on paper, was his walk rate, which at 3.78 was essentially double this season’s 1.88.

Prior to his last outing — a game in which he was BABIP’d to death by six consecutive fourth-inning singles — I approached Steele in Wrigley Field’s home clubhouse to get his thoughts on what has been an outstanding season. The following day, I asked Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy about the pitch characteristics that make Steele a Cy Young contender.

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David Laurila: Won-lost record and walk rate aside, a lot of your numbers aren’t all that different from last year’s. Are you more or less the same pitcher?

Justin Steele: “I would say that I’m better. The pitches are the same, I’m the same pitcher as far as that goes, but I’ve been more consistent this year. I’m not walking as many guys. I’m being competitive throughout the count, I’ve cut down on non-competitive pitches big time. So yeah, a lot more consistent.”

Laurila: Were you happy with last year?

Steele: “I think so. I was definitely happy with how I finished up [a 0.99 ERA over his last seven starts]. I felt like the entire season I was improving. That’s something that’s really important to me, always improving from start to start.”

Laurila: What’s behind this year’s improved consistency?

Steele: “I think it’s just more reps, getting more and more comfortable out there each time I take the ball. It’s like anything in life: you do it more and you get more comfortable doing it. You also get better at it.”

Laurila: Is your stuff basically the same? Velocity, movement profiles, et cetera?

Steele: “I feel like it is. I don’t really look at the numbers too much. I kind of just go off feel and trust what my eyeballs are telling me. But I do think that my slider has been crisper at times. It’s really just day to day for me.”

Laurila: Do you feel you’re sequencing better this year?

Steele: “There are definitely days where I feel like Yan [Gomes] and I are able to sequence better together, and then there are days where I kind of just completely go with what he’s saying. I feel like he’s a little more dialed in than I am. It’s a matter of situations, hitters… stuff where they’re starting to pick up on something. Maybe they’re starting to get to the slider low and in, so we’ll start to mix it up in different ways.”

Laurila: How do you identify as a pitcher? Are you more of a power guy, more of a finesse guy…

Steele: “I would label myself as an out-getter. I get outs.”

Laurila: Is there an art to inducing soft contact?

Steele: “I’d say so. If you’re able to maneuver the ball, manipulate the ball and get it in on their hands, get them thinking it’s over the plate and it ends up breaking late, you can get ground balls, double plays, popups. Different things like that. So yeah, there’s definitely an art to it.”

Laurila: Which of your numbers do care about the most?

Steele: “That’s an interesting question, because again, I don’t really look at stats. But I guess I care about quality starts. If you can keep your team in the game for at least six innings while holding the opposition to no more than three runs, you’re doing your job. You’re giving the team a chance to win, and that’s what you’re out there to do.”

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Hottovy on what makes Steele effective: “If look at him from the second half of last year, he’s been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. I think what makes him so good and so unique is his ability to throw his fastball at a high velocity and have it move very cutter-ish. Most guys, when they throw a cutter, it has a little more depth. You’ll see guys who create glove-side movement but not maintain quite the carry you would get on a fastball. He’s in a unique position to where you’ve got, at times, 11, 12, 13 inches of carry to go with the glove-side movement.

“When he clicks it right, he backspins [the ball] and it goes up to 18 inches of vertical movement. Then he’ll cut one off and it will go into that six-and-six range, which is where most guys’ cutters tend to be. He’s got the ability to throw one pitch in a few different ways. He’s not manipulating it from a grip perspective. It’s more intent-based. When he wants to get more carry on the ball, he’ll change his sights up a little bit and think about driving it through the top, naturally creating more carry. When he’s trying to jam it in on a righty, or go down and away to a lefty, he’ll focus his sights more down, glove-side. That will naturally create more cut because of how his mechanics work.

“It’s a pretty steep [approach] angle, and it’s his ability to create movement off of that angle that makes him unique. Again, most guys who have cutters aren’t throwing 92–93 [mph] and creating that type of glove-side movement. With a lot of the guys who throw cutters at a higher velocity, that pitch gets sucked out to the zero-zero mark where it’s more of gyro-y type cutter. Like I said, his ability to create backspin and cut is unique. He’s such a supinated pitcher. Everything he does is in that strong supinated position.

“[His slider] is a solid pitch. It’s got a lot of sweep and lift to it. He’s especially hard to time up, especially for right-handed hitters; he just doesn’t get barreled up very often. That’s with both pitches. You see a lot of hitters, when they’re getting to that contact point, start to go really fast, trying to beat the pitch to the spot. The only way you can really lift his fastball is by staying inside of it, and that’s really hard to do when it’s boring in on you at a higher velocity.

“For the most part he’s a two-pitch pitcher, but his ability to move them around and make them move differently makes it four pitches in my mind. And he actually has other pitches. When I watch him throw a bullpen, he’s got a good changeup. He’s got a curveball. He’s got a little sinker. Basically, he uses what he needs to. For a young pitcher to trust what he does really well and have an ability to adjust off of that is pretty impressive.”