KATOH Projects: Detroit Tigers Prospects

Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland / Colorado.

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Detroit Tigers. In this companion piece, I look at that same Detroit farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Michael Fulmer, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Fulmer enjoyed a breakout season with the Mets last year and kept it going after he came to the Tigers in the Yoenis Cespedes deal. Both his strikeout rate and walk rate improved as he made the jump from High-A to Double-A in 2015, giving him the lowest ERA — and second lowest FIP — in Double-A last year.

2. Dixon Machado, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.5 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Machado has always been a glove-first infield prospect, but he’s showed signs of life with his bat the last couple of years. He may never hit much, but as a shortstop, he doesn’t necessarily need to. Even his ceiling is minimal, Machado’s defense and high-contact approach makes him a good bet to at least stick around as a utility infielder.

3. JaCoby Jones, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40+ FV

Power and speed are the hallmarks of Jones’ offensive game. He popped 23 homers and 17 steals in 2014, and followed it up with 16 and 25 last year. That output is mighty impressive for a shortstop, but Jones’ near-30% strikeout rates are the fly in the proverbial ointment. Jones’ poor contact skills make him a risky prospect, but his other skills give him a high upside.

4. Adrian Alfaro, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: Unranked

Alfaro appears to be way off the prospect radar, but he did some interesting things in Rookie Ball last year. Although he played shortstop — a position that’s often reserved for defensive-minded players — he hit .281/.356/.365 (121 wRC+) as an 18-year-old. His most encouraging attribute was his 12% strikeout rate, especially when held next to his 10% walk rate. Alfaro’s a 5-foot-9 Rookie Baller with little power, so it’s easy to see why he isn’t viewed as much of a prospect. But KATOH detects some Major League potential here.

5. A.J. Simcox, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: Unranked

Like Alfaro, Simcox is an obscure low-minors shortstop prospect who quietly hit a little bit last year. After the Tigers took him in the 15th round out of the University of Tennessee, Simcox hit .330/.367/.395 in 215 plate appearances, with a good chunk of them coming in the Midwest League. Simcox’s 2015 was all contact and speed, though his 6-foot-3 frame suggests there could be power on the way. It’s still obscenely early for Simcox, especially considering his lack of pedigree, but he’s performed in a limited sample.

Kevin Ziomek pitched brilliantly in each of the last two seasons, but did so as a 22- and 23-year-old in A-Ball. KATOH doesn’t like that he’s been so old for his levels. Steven Moya put himself on the prospect map with a 35-homer season in 2014, but struggled in Triple-A due to chronic strikeout problems. He has the raw power to be an excellent player, but has the statistical profile of a Quad-A bat. The truth is likely somewhere in between.

Jason Krizan turns 27 in June, but he struck out as often as he walked last year (10% of PAs each) and showed hints of both power and speed. Kade Scivicque hit decently as a catcher in Low-A after the Tigers took him in the fourth round out of LSU. Miguel Gonzalez and Rafael Lopez are very boring catchers who hit decently in the high minors. Knowing nothing about their defensive abilities, KATOH thinks both could conceivably make for non-terrible backups.

*****

Remaining 45 or Higher Players

Christin Stewart, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 0.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Stewart hit a loud .296/.379/.500 in his pro debut, but struck out in 22% of his plate appearances. A strikeout rate that high in the low minors is generally a bad sign, as it’s often indicative of a flaw that could exploited by better pitching. However, considering last season was Stewart’s first crack at pro ball, and that he’s yet to really fail, it’s far too soon to even think about writing him off.

Mike Gerber, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 0.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Gerber hit a solid .292/.355/.468 in Low-A, but was exceptionally old for his level. He turned 23 last July, yet still hasn’t played above Low-A. He’s demonstrated a compelling combination of contact, power and speed, but over two-thirds of his PAs last year came against pitchers younger than him. Gerber has skills, but is entirely untested outside of the low minors.

Derek Hill nabbed 25 steals last year, but has vastly underwhelmed in the contact and power departments. Despite his excellent stuff, Jairo Labourt, continues to post terrible walk rates due to spotty command. Spencer Turnbull has pitched well, but turned 23 in September and still hasn’t pitched above Low-A. Dominic Ficociello is a first baseman with minimal power and iffy strikeout rates, but as Dan noted, he’s 6-foot-4 and many think power is on the way.