KATOH Projects: Minnesota Twins Prospects

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Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Minnesota Twins. In this companion piece, I look at that same Minnesota farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Twins have the sixth-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Max Kepler, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 11.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV

Kepler broke out in a big way last year, hitting .322/.416/.531 in Double-A with 18 steals. It’s incredibly hard to poke holes in Kepler’s 2015 performance. He made lots of contact, walked more than he struck out, hit for power and stole bases. The downside with Kepler is that his pre-2015 numbers were substantially less impressive, so there’s a chance his true talent level is closer to his 2014 numbers. But track record or no, KATOH’s enamored of his most recent 500 plate appearances.

2. Jose Berrios, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 10.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 65 FV

Berrios spent the first half of 2015 dominating Double-A hitters, and then spent the second half dominating Triple-A hitters. His 26% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate were both excellent, resulting in a sterling 2.95 FIP and 2.87 ERA. At 6-foot-nothing, Berrios may not have the build of a top-tier pitching prospect, but he certainly has the track record of one.

3. Jorge Polanco, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 5.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50+ FV

Although he’s cameo’d with the Twins each of the last two years, Polanco’s still just 22 and has minimal experience above Double-A. His minor-league track record is an encouraging one, though. He makes a good deal of contact, has demonstrated respectable amounts of both power and speed, and of course, plays shortstop. There aren’t really any holes in his game.

4. Byron Buxton, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 5.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 70 FV

Buxton’s minor-league numbers have been good, but he’s yet to really have that breakout year. Sure, he hit .305/.367/.500 with 22 steals in the minors last year, but his 20% strikeout rate is a bit concerning for someone with non-elite power. That’s why KATOH merely likes Buxton and doesn’t love him. However, there’s good reason to think KATOH might be selling him short. For one, he’s missed a lot of time with injury, so he’s probably a little earlier on the development curve than your typical 22-year-olds. Secondly, his tools are off the charts, and with some players, it just takes some time for the performance to catch up with his natural abilities. My dumb computer thinks Buxton is a less-than-elite prospect, but there’s reason to doubt my dumb computer.

5. Nick Gordon, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 5.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Gordon got off to a slow start last year, but really kicked things into high gear come June. On June 17th, the toolsy shortstop was hitting just .235/.313/.281; however, he slashed .313/.353/.424 the rest of the way, bringing his season slash line to .277/.336/.360. Gordon hasn’t hit for a lick of power as a pro, but has done a decent enough job of getting on base. Coupled with his speed and defensive ability, this makes for a pretty exciting player. Gordon’s Mahalanobis comps turned out terribly, but I wouldn’t read too deeply into that. Given the small sample of just ten names, I’d trust KATOH over the comps nine times out of ten.

6. Wilfredo Tovar, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: Unranked

Tovar was an interesting prospect in the Mets system a few years back, but stalled out in the high minors after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. He quietly came to the Twins on a minor-league deal over the winter, after hitting .283/.327/.356 with 30 steals in Triple-A last year. Tovar isn’t sexy — if he were, I wouldn’t be the only one writing about him this offseson — but he makes contact, runs well and plays up-the-middle defense. He’s also still just 24, so one could envision his offensive abilities improving over time.

7. Luis Arraez, 2B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.7 WAR
Dan’s Grade: Unranked

It feels like every organization has at least one obscure, low minors middle infielder whom KATOH likes. Arraez is the Twins version of this archetype. As a 5-foot-10 second baseman, Arraez doesn’t look the part of a prospect. But he managed a .309/.377/.391 triple slash in Rookie ball last year, due in no small part to his minuscule 4% strikeout rate. Arraez is still eons from the show, but KATOH detects some big-league potential there.

8. Adam Brett Walker, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.5 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Walker has big-boy power. He belted a level-leading 31 homers in Double-A last year, and complemented it with 13 steals; however, he also struck out an eye-popping 35% of the time. Walker’s an all-or-nothing player, and more often than not, guys like that get exposed against more advanced pitching. Walker’s power potential makes him interesting, but he’s a one-trick pony who’s already 24. The good mostly outweighs the bad.

9. Taylor Rogers, LHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.3 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40+ FV

Rogers spent last season at the Triple-A level, where he pitched to an excellent 3.21 FIP as a starter. He’s also run an extreme platoon split in the minors, so at the very least, he should make for a very good LOOGY. Rogers is already 25 and doesn’t miss many bats, but his numbers suggest he was ready for the big leagues yesterday.

10. Engelb Vielma, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Vielma hasn’t hit for much power in the minors, but still managed a respectable .270/.321/.306 batting line in High-A last year. Vielma makes a decent amount of contact and steals bases, which ought to help compensate for his lack of power.

11. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.1 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45+ FV

Gonsalves capitalized on his 2014 campaign with a strong showing in A-Ball. He was filthy in nine Low-A starts last year and merely good in 15 High-A starts. Gonsalves is still has a ways to go, but his strikeout numbers and 6-foot-5 frame suggest he’ll make an impact down the road.

12. Jermaine Palacios, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.0 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Palacios hit a jaw-dropping .370/.398/.540 as a shortstop in Rookie ball last year. That’s obviously very exciting, but Palacios still has a lot left to prove. He’ll head to full-season ball next year, which will be the real test, as that data’s always more trustworthy.

*****

Alex Meyer is the only name on this list with much prospect pedigree. He pitched pretty well in Triple-A last year, but did so as a reliever and is already 26. Aaron Slegers spun a 2.96 FIP in High-A last year, which earned him a late-season promotion to Double-A. In addition to his solid numbers, KATOH also likes that he’s 6-foot-10.

*****

Kohl Stewart held his own as a 20-year-old in High-A, but didn’t miss many bats. A sub-13% strikeout rate is never a good sign. J.T. Chargois put up a strong 3.00 FIP and 26% strikeout rate between High-A and Double-A. KATOH dings him hard for being a 25-year-old reliever who’s never pitched above Double-A, although KATOH doesn’t know he missed two full seasons while recovering from Tommy John Surgery.